Newbie 1732 [Game Over!]: InnocentVille

[Chrimi]

If we lynch town today then you shouldn't necessarily follow what you announce, instead you should try to guess who will be the scum who makes the kill and jailkeep them. Although again I guess this is irrelevant if there's a roleblocker.

Correct. And if I survive until tomorrow, there's probably no roleblocker and this has implications for Chrimi's authenticity.

What's that Shannon? As long as scum kills someone other than you, scum can get an easy mislynch on me tomorrow?

You know the roleblocker doesn't even need to use their ability to kill you, right? Unless you happen to know who is scum and which one will make the night kill (which you don't because for some ungodly reason you think conftown is scum)

They don't even need roleblocker to kill you. They might even go ahead and kill someone random just so you'll go "See Chrimi is scum!!" tomorrow and go for an all out mislynch on town.

PEDIT: What? Penguin making sense? Looks like I need to look over my reads again..

[Cass]

I think you missed what I was pointing out. It's nothing to do with vote moving on anyone's part. It's that AF makes a big deal about how Chrimi would have been a good N1 target because Chrimi was conf town - but Chrimi didn't claim BP until D2. So that point is false and I think it comes from Scum AF trying to help Scum Chrimi.

Shannon, there is no logical scenario where Chrimi is scum and Tne is town (because of your jailkeeping) - or do you see one I'm missing?

[PenguinPower]

I think you missed what I was pointing out. It's nothing to do with vote moving on anyone's part. It's that AF makes a big deal about how Chrimi would have been a good N1 target because Chrimi was conf town - but Chrimi didn't claim BP until D2. So that point is false and I think it comes from Scum AF trying to help Scum Chrimi.

Shannon, there is no logical scenario where Chrimi is scum and Tne is town (because of your jailkeeping) - or do you see one I'm missing?

Chrimi/AF nightkill TNE who is protected by the shannon. At that point, scum knows there are three potential setups. 1, C, or 3 since there was an obvious BP or protective role. Chrimi fakeclaims BP knowing that if setup 1, no one can CC and it appears legit to the JK. If setup C, takes the chance that neither PR wants to out themselves to CC on D2, and if they do, Great!. If setup 3, takes the chance that Chrimi could appear more genuine as the real BP should they CC, especially with 2nd scum support, or that the real BP doesn't want to CC. Any way, 33% chance of no CC, 67% chance of outing a PR.

Now Chrimi knows that we are in Setup 1 and there is no one to CC.

That's all speculative, and just to point out that there is a scenario. I don't believe that to be the case.

[Drone]

Anyone else up for posting the same fucking shit over and over again but with different use of words?
Where's tne? Is she talking? No? Good.
VOTE: thenewearth

I also really want Imp's reaction now.

[Cass]

Is that L-1?

@Mod: can we have a votecount please?

[PenguinPower]

Pretty sure that's L-2.

[shannon]

If we lynch town today then you shouldn't necessarily follow what you announce, instead you should try to guess who will be the scum who makes the kill and jailkeep them. Although again I guess this is irrelevant if there's a roleblocker.

Correct. And if I survive until tomorrow, there's probably no roleblocker and this has implications for Chrimi's authenticity.

What's that Shannon? As long as scum kills someone other than you, scum can get an easy mislynch on me tomorrow?

You know the roleblocker doesn't even need to use their ability to kill you, right? Unless you happen to know who is scum and which one will make the night kill (which you don't because for some ungodly reason you think conftown is scum)

They don't even need roleblocker to kill you. They might even go ahead and kill someone random just so you'll go "See Chrimi is scum!!" tomorrow and go for an all out mislynch on town.

PEDIT: What? Penguin making sense? Looks like I need to look over my reads again..

Chrimi if there's no roleblocker it's possible for me to guess who the scum is that's coming to kill me, and jailkeep them. Hence, me being alive tomorrow. If there *is* a roleblocker I'd expect them to both roleblock me and kill me just to be sure. Can you see a scenario where it makes sense for scum to leave me a live, with info about who I jailkept, for another day, vs. killing me? No?

I think you missed what I was pointing out. It's nothing to do with vote moving on anyone's part. It's that AF makes a big deal about how Chrimi would have been a good N1 target because Chrimi was conf town - but Chrimi didn't claim BP until D2. So that point is false and I think it comes from Scum AF trying to help Scum Chrimi.

Shannon, there is no logical scenario where Chrimi is scum and Tne is town (because of your jailkeeping) - or do you see one I'm missing?

Yes, Chrimi attempted to kill TNE, and I protected TNE with the JK.

[shannon]

I've got Drone, Chrimi, and PP on TNE so this makes it L-1.

VOTE: TNE

[AstralFlare]

Nah. No night kill because one of PP/Implosion/Drone/Cass targeted Chrimi. TNE clear. Still think this is the most likely scenario

[AstralFlare]

Like what makes you more likely to think that TNE is scum

[Chrimi]

Yes, Chrimi attempted to kill TNE, and I protected TNE with the JK.

And then I claimed with no wagon or pressure on me, which as scum would give me a 1/4 chance of survival...?

In which case I would know there wasn't a BP, so I would know we have a jailkeeper.. So claiming would mean I'd be jailkept every night, preventing me from performing night kills. Which means if you caught my buddy today, then I would essentially lose my ability to make night kills and probably get lynched eventually.

shannon, I really feel like you're not thinking this through. Just like you didn't think claiming through.

[shannon]

Yes, Chrimi attempted to kill TNE, and I protected TNE with the JK.

And then I claimed with no wagon or pressure on me, which as scum would give me a 1/4 chance of survival...?

In which case I would know there wasn't a BP, so I would know we have a jailkeeper.. So claiming would mean I'd be jailkept every night, preventing me from performing night kills. Which means if you caught my buddy today, then I would essentially lose my ability to make night kills and probably get lynched eventually.

shannon, I really feel like you're not thinking this through. Just like you didn't think claiming through.

Stop misrepresenting me. What you've quoted above was me responding to a question about whether it's *possible* for TNE to have been town and you scum. And it is a logical possibility. It's perhaps not a likely scenario, but it's possible. That's all.

[shannon]

Cass's question was "Shannon, there is no logical scenario where Chrimi is scum and Tne is town (because of your jailkeeping) - or do you see one I'm missing?"

So yes, me accidentally saving TNE from ScumChrimi *is* a logical scenario. I'm talking in the strict philosophical sense of logic here, not the colloquial one where people use logical to mean 'likely' or 'makes sense to me'.

[shannon]

This image is for the visual people. Green is the setups that my claimed role makes possible. Blue are the ones Chrimi's claimed role makes possible. They only overlap on A, which means that if both are true, scum has a goon and a roleblocker.

If everyone's claims are true,

prior to Chrimi's BP claim

, scum would have been tossing up between A and 2. They can't have thought they were in any of the others, because having a roleblocker precludes it.

So to be clear:

If you're speculating about a goon/goon scum team, you are either calling me a liar or calling Chrimi one.

If Chrimi's claim is fake but mine is true, and

no one else is a BP

, then we're *actually* in 1, and there's *no* roleblocker. (This isn't to say anything about Chrimi's potential motivations for potentially fake claiming, or what her alignment is - just that if there's no BP, we're in 1)

If my claim is fake but Chrimi's is true, and

no one else is JK

, then we're actually in 3, and town has a tracker someplace.

If mine and Chrimi's claims are

both true

, these are the possible scenarios:

A) I prevented TNE from killing someone
B) I prevented TNE from being killed

by

someone - Drone, Cass, Implosion, PP, or AF
C) Chrimi was hit but BP, I didn't do anything
D) TNE targeted Chrimi, and I jailkept her, so Chrimi is still BP

If Chrimi's claim is untrue

and

she's scum, these are the possible scenarios:

E) TNE is also scum and attempted to attempt the kill N1, but my JK prevented it
F) TNE is town, and I saved her from the scum team kill
G) I did nothing, and whoever scum hit was actually BP

[implosion]

Meh.

Honestly I still think tne's recent posting strikes me as townish. But not immensely, and if she's town then my poe right now leaves Cass/drone as the most likely and they're relatively unlikely as a scumteam.

I'm not sure exactly what you want me to react to, drone - I think I've made my thoughts on tne clear and the past page or two doesn't change much.

I'll hammer tne tomorrow if there are no objections and no one wants anything else in particular out of the day; I think we're starting to focus a bit much on nightplay which isn't really that important here.

[Drone]

I kinda expected you to notice how some just repeat the conclusions we've already came up hundreds of times.
And btw Imp, tne's lynch would give us all what we need to know on n1's nk fate.
That's pretty much the only thing we can do to win helpful information

[shannon]

IMHO, better to lynch TNE now and get info while we can still use it, than to have her around late and be wondering.

[Cass]

That absolutely makes sense - leaving her alive makes me as nervous as killing her.

I'd kinda like to hear a defense from her before we hammer, but don't know if she's planning to. Say, something TNE, if you're town. Even if it's just that you won't talk anymore.

The only thing I can really say against this lynch is that if she's scum, she would not be the roleblocker, right? Because with two scum the roleblocker would block and the other one kill, right? I don't mean to sound dumb or lamist, just tell me if this is not how this set-up works. And it would be really great to kill the roleblocker now, but I realize those odds are not good and going to Lylo with this much uncertainty is terrible.

[shannon]

Chrimi could be the roleblocker, the roleblocker can kill and block at the same time in this setup - it's in the rules on the front page.

[Cass]

Chrimi could be the roleblocker, the roleblocker can kill and block at the same time in this setup - it's in the rules on the front page.

Where? Seriously, iIlooked for it and looked again, and I don't see it. I know the roleblocker can do both when it's alone, but also when both scum are alive? I do believe you, I just feel blind or something now.

[Cass]

Ebwop: NM, I didn't scroll down far enough. I looked under rules but it's under set-up, below the matrix. Sorry. Ignore me.

[Cass]

Well, that's sorta good, because it means there's a chance that TNE is also the roleblocker (if a tiny chance, considering everything else, but better than zero).

I do have another worry about his lynch, though it might be a hindsight thing: it seemed fairly likely to me that Shannon was a PR, even before she claimed. The breadcrumb I saw was in day 1 too. So, the odds are higher than random that scum spotted the same and roleblocked her. I don't think we covered that situation yet? Because it would mean tne is town. But there is no way to find this out.

Ack, there's a lot of guesswork and a lot of assumptions going into this, but TNE feels like 50/50 odds to me now. Which is better than random, so I'm ok with the lynch. Willing to hammer, but not before giving TNE a chance to say something.

[shannon]

That's a good point, we haven't considered whether I was roleblocked. If I was, whoever was targeted last night is actually bulletproof.

For reference, what crumb did you see?

[Cass]

IMHO having an alt account totally matters in a game like this. It's not like you're

playing a hunter instead of a mage

and that gives you different abilities. Unless you're faking a whole other personality, an alt in mafia only serves to obscure yourself to get an advantage over players who might otherwise recognise your style and your tells.

Snipping and bolding by me. After there were other hints about you being a PR / everyone calling you obvtown, I looked back and saw this and interpreted it as tracker, which later meshed with the BP claim and so solidified it in my mind (but jailkeeper fits too, I suppose). And now you are going to tell me that post was absolutely meaningless, probably
Still, I can well see scum reading it as breadcrumbing and roleblocking you just in case.

And unless we kill the RB now, I don't see you surviving the night, no.

[shannon]

Hahaha I was just thinking about WoW because my husband has started playing again, that quote means nothing! I'm glad I didn't say rogue, I'd have been lynched by now!