Open 651: Stack the Deck (Game Over)

[Raskolnikov]

so ironstove's hard 180 upon right before leaving is kind of awkward.
In general I was his only townread and he used that opportunity to back on it. Flip flop on genji too but explicitly leaving an out available before and after turn (he COULD flip scum is a bad lynch).
Logic of "any town would happy I'm gone" to reverse on me doesn't make that much sense while not applying it in the other direction and judging bastion or bowls responses. Thing is, from a pure personality point of view it would even make sense but it was his questions and the game impact I had liked not so much him as a person. Overall he leaves casting doubt on people on the way out and acts pretty sure of himself for someone with his reads... which he expressed as pretty much everywhere. I don't want to think I was wrong here but its just a bit soured and n_m replacing in and leaving a vote instantly doesn't help it. Regardless of it being on scum; what is the town thought process to come in and casually vote like that in MYLO (scum can vote frivolously though as there is no risk to them). Then again for what little it's worth it actually looks par for the course for N_M of what I've seen...

Genji's response to N_M however is kind of assuming N_M is town though... considering he comes in and casually votes genji the response to think it's benign/carelessness instead of anything malicious (particularly from that POV) is pretty ridiculous. As is the point on kyndy without voting or even really scumreading her and in general not pushing anything beyond the force of gentle breeze... until the return vote on lycan. The treatment of N_M as town is actually good for the N_M slot though and because of how subtle it this there's no chance it was intentional.

As for lycan, bodyguard claim is actually good, d1 action sounds fair given light was sketchy at that point. Although, since I was wrong about JOAT double shot, I guess vig claim was never a possibility for scum to fakeclaim in the first place (and so it would only have ever been BG). But in that case I don't see the scum incentive of doing the vague claim in the first place; and it would be REALLY creative to do that entirely because it would be a town thing to do, when you already know what you'd claim in the end.

Kind of interesting to think how scum would play around the vague claim; with a JOAT, no lynch + strongman-kill shaddow is 100% a lynch on lycanfire and a game win, whereas vig would be entirely different. The theory is scum would want to push here and insist on getting the claim so they COULD be able to decide that and figure out the course of action for them. But the only obvious effort was iron (773-775), and technically kyndy though she mostly just casted doubt through it. OTOH I think scum would probably assume BG anyways without vig shot d1, the actual vig/bg judgement I think wasn't everyone's minds as much while lycan himself was more of a questionmark... Another thing is if scum chose rolecop over JOAT it's possible (33%?) they'd have checked lycan anyways which would explain apathy towards. Counterclaim thing I don't really get though.

Assuming lycan is town is tbh a throw off from my original theory though it does make a non-genji team even more ridiculous. I still think N_M slot is town, and the only actual combination without lycan and N_M would be bowl, kyndy, and bastion. And kyndy/bastion is actually decent but the latter two with bowl not really. Kyndy tries to cast doubt on bowl and bowl/bastion mutually townread and are friendly; ironically not bad actually. Compare to bastion/genji where bastion pretty much ignores genji the entire time with 0 reaction or comment pretty much ever. Bastions d2 playing around the claim I read as essentially a town-slip but I realise now that judgement from me is faulty as its still possible from scum... actually maybe moreso as he would have known the aligns and could try to think of how it could be a mistake VS straight up scumreading which was the reaction for everyone else. But that lack of anything to say even up to recently is kind of damning...

Now it's been almost 24h since L-2 and at this point it's pretty much a guarantee scum would've quickhammered if genji WAS town so that's not really a concern anymore, but the associations work is all still valid.
I'm 90% sure I live to tomorrow anyways with shaddow and how I read lycan claim, but on the off chance (either lycan scum bussing OR scum kill outside PRs to try to frame lycan town) I die I'm fairly confident it's kyndy and bastion as the partners. Shaddow has pretty good judgement anyways and he's guaranteed here if I'm not so.

tl;dr {genji/kyndy/bastion} by far the best bet with associations, a few questionmarks on N_M, though if I die and you're reading this tomorrow your priority should actually be to try to figure out why 2 PRs are alive instead of me lol (but don't rule out WIFOM).

[Raskolnikov]

now at this point, if you'd please bus that'd be appreciated.

[Raskolnikov]

kyndy if you don't vote next time you enter the thread it's essentially claiming scum, btw

[Raskolnikov]

90% of your previous posts have been around this time and a bit later so avoiding now isn't going to be believed FTR

[lilith2013]

Votecount 3.007

As a reminder, contentless prod dodges do not reset prod timers. I'll leave it at a warning to Not_Mafia since it's a holiday weekend.

Genji [3]

Raskolnikov, superbowl9, Lycanfire

Lycanfire [1]

Genji

No Lynch [1]

shaddowez

Not Voting [3]

Sir Bastion, Not_Mafia, kyndy101

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Deadline: (expired on 2016-09-08 11:15:00)

pagetop count: Lilith 10 | ironstove 4 | Vedith 4 | light_ganski 3 | Raskolnikov 2 | shaddowez 2 | kyndy101 2 | HighHopes 2 | NJAC 2 | Genji 1 | superbowl9 1 | Sir Bastion 1 | Hebee Inc 1

[Lycanfire]

I feel the same way Rask. Bastion not letting Kyndy and I fight was pretty much the spark I needed to read Ironstove as trying to scumhunt in ways other than asking if he was mafia. The less I intensely scumread Ironstove the more I appreciated how he was generating discussion. Everything including and after asking me to claim was dumb. Townie asking for no lynch is great bait; I realized this when shadow voted it and Genji was really happy to see that light up on the vote count. There could have been town motives there.

His problem was overreaching and doing too many things at once (going for bastion and trying to get my reaction to claiming at the same time) that I interpreted as solely aimed at me so of course I was going to ignore him and say voting no lynch was claiming scum. My advice would be for him to wait for the first player to respond before going for the second one.

[Lycanfire]

and not to be a dick

[lilith2013]

Prodding kyndy and superbowl.

[Genji]

Assumptions to be made at this point:
at most only 1 person on my wagon can be town, because I haven't been hammered by scum.

That means either:
A) 3 people are scum on my wagon (unlikely)
B) 2 are scum and 1 is town.

My thoughts right now are that superbowl and lycan are unaligned. Which is from their interactions alone. I might be wrong on this, since I haven't seen much interactions lately, but its a gut feeling I get from reading posts.

That leaves if I take out those two being a scum in this position:
Superbowl/Rask/???
Lycan/Rask/???

So, we should theoretically be voting to lynch Rask, but I think Lycan/Rask is also the match.

[Genji]

Genji's response to N_M however is kind of assuming N_M is town though... considering he comes in and casually votes genji the response to think it's benign/carelessness instead of anything malicious (particularly from that POV) is pretty ridiculous. As is the point on kyndy without voting or even really scumreading her and in general not pushing anything beyond the force of gentle breeze... until the return vote on lycan. The treatment of N_M as town is actually good for the N_M slot though and because of how subtle it this there's no chance it was intentional.

As for lycan, bodyguard claim is actually good, d1 action sounds fair given light was sketchy at that point. Although, since I was wrong about JOAT double shot, I guess vig claim was never a possibility for scum to fakeclaim in the first place (and so it would only have ever been BG). But in that case I don't see the scum incentive of doing the vague claim in the first place; and it would be REALLY creative to do that entirely because it would be a town thing to do, when you already know what you'd claim in the end.

If you read Ironstove posting the way I did, I couldn't possibly imagine he was scum in the scenarios provided. Especially the hostility that was uneccesary. Why wouldn't I assume a person who just joined a game and threw a careless vote around would be town as well? Scum often aren't acting carelessly. Carelessly is more town trait/personality thing.

I don't see why you think Lycan bodygard claim is good.
If you agree with that sentiment, you should be voting to skip instead of going for a lynch in MYLO scenario.

Your reasons for scumreading me are very lose.

[Genji]

now at this point, if you'd please bus that'd be appreciated.

kyndy if you don't vote next time you enter the thread it's essentially claiming scum, btw

These don't follow, if Rask is scum Kyndy has been setup to be a mislynch bait this entire time.

[Genji]

I feel the same way Rask. Bastion not letting Kyndy and I fight was pretty much the spark I needed to read Ironstove as trying to scumhunt in ways other than asking if he was mafia. The less I intensely scumread Ironstove the more I appreciated how he was generating discussion.

This isn't what Rask was saying, and I don't see how you got this out of the posting.

[superbowl9]

Assumptions to be made at this point:
at most only 1 person on my wagon can be town, because I haven't been hammered by scum.

That means either:
A) 3 people are scum on my wagon (unlikely)
B) 2 are scum and 1 is town.

My thoughts right now are that superbowl and lycan are unaligned. Which is from their interactions alone. I might be wrong on this, since I haven't seen much interactions lately, but its a gut feeling I get from reading posts.

That leaves if I take out those two being a scum in this position:
Superbowl/Rask/???
Lycan/Rask/???

So, we should theoretically be voting to lynch Rask, but I think Lycan/Rask is also the match.

This is from your POV right? Cause this doesn't work if you're the scum.
Also you really don't seem like you're feeling any pressure to get yourself out of this lynch; this reads as "here's some WIFOM to play with for tomorrow".
Beating a dead horse at this point tho.

[kyndy101]

Assumptions to be made at this point:
at most only 1 person on my wagon can be town, because I haven't been hammered by scum.

That means either:
A) 3 people are scum on my wagon (unlikely)
B) 2 are scum and 1 is town.

My thoughts right now are that superbowl and lycan are unaligned. Which is from their interactions alone. I might be wrong on this, since I haven't seen much interactions lately, but its a gut feeling I get from reading posts.

That leaves if I take out those two being a scum in this position:
Superbowl/Rask/???
Lycan/Rask/???

So, we should theoretically be voting to lynch Rask, but I think Lycan/Rask is also the match.

This is from your POV right? Cause this doesn't work if you're the scum.
Also you really don't seem like you're feeling any pressure to get yourself out of this lynch; this reads as "here's some WIFOM to play with for tomorrow".
Beating a dead horse at this point tho.

This is true; I feel like at this time we've gotten most information out of today that we can get, I reread Genji's ISO and completely agree with all the cases on him, at this point I was going to wait for the last rl day for myself to join the wagon just to see if any other information has popped up, but at this point
VOTE: Genji

[kyndy101]

Also I couldn't help but notice Genji didn't consider Super Bowl / Lycan / ??? Scum, nor did he consider that a third option of one scum and two town on his wagon. I do feel like the first scenario is more likely, with him not having been hammered yet.

[kyndy101]

and not to be a dick

...?

[Sir Bastion]

VOTE: Genji


and done

[Raskolnikov]

uhm.

[Raskolnikov]

UNVOTE:

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: kyndy

[Genji]

I guess I overlooked the possibility that 2 players on my wagon were town.
GG I guess.

[Genji]

So I guess that I was right previously (before I adjusted based on the wagons)
That Kyndy was a bussing point for several players.

The team then I guess is Lycan/Bastion/Kyndy

[Raskolnikov]

welp.

[Raskolnikov]

at least i can get

[Raskolnikov]

the