Newbie 1726 (Game Over)

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #725 (ISO) » Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:23 pm

In post 722, innocentvillager wrote:What the fuck? Is the remaining scum an idiot or?

Just because someone made a suboptimal kill doesn't mean that they're an idiot. It just means they made a suboptimal kill.

Zorblag · Post Post #726 (ISO) » Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:59 pm

@RachMarie, so here are some reasons just right off the top of my head that we might doubt that innocentvillager is scum with Jaack:

The two of them at the start of day 2 were the only ones on my wagon and they were both pushing strongly. I seldom see scum coordinate an attack like that when there's no town to back them up.
Jaack at the end of day 3 was pushing for the town to pick between innocentvillager and I. If they're scum together he's better off pushing for a choice between two town as that should win the game. This ties into point 1 in that both of them based on their positions could easily have gotten on Foxbird push; they're already tied together with pushes so there's no reason to back off it now.
innocentvillager had to think that sticking by a no lynch which wasn't going to happen was a better move than trying to push a Foxbird lynch which there were clearly people sympathetic towards. He has to think so to the point where standing out with an opinion (the no lynch) was more valuable than working and blending in with the town to get a lynch that would win the game.

Let me know what you think of those.

Also, on an unrelated topic, how often are you a NK target Night 1? What do you think the chances of it happening this game might have been (assume that the jailkeep action protected you for whatever reason and just assess your chance of being a target.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Zorblag · Post Post #727 (ISO) » Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:10 pm

@innocentvillager, some people believe very strongly that killing confirmed town is always the right move as scum (they probably make an exception for a night kill that wins the game, but if there are going to be future days, they'll take out a known power role every time.) Personally I don't believe that's always the best move, but it wouldn't shock me at all if either (more likely) they thought that Nachomamma8 might be killable last night (not being sure if the jailkeeper preserved the one-shot bullet proof or not,) or they knew that it the kill wouldn't go through tonight, but submitted it anyhow and will do so again tonight. The first option there is more likely, especially given the talk about me being a likely target, but either could be the case.

With Jaack flipping scum, I was expecting to die and am slightly irritated that I'm playing again today, but at least we got a free extra lynch out of it.

Does your reasoning from yesterday still hold? Do you think Foxbird is the second scum? If so, have you looked at the connections with Jaack and do they seem to line up appropriately for that?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Zorblag · Post Post #728 (ISO) » Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:37 pm

@Foxbird, you were meant to be included in the post I made about everyone looking at Jaack and his connections to the remaining players, but I want to be explicit about that here. Who do you see as Jaack's most likely partner. Having two choices is fine. I'm not even interested in how scummy they seem on their own, just who are the most likely partners. I know that you seem to see different things than I do so I'm interested in seeing who you think make the most sense.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Foxbird · Post Post #729 (ISO) » Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:41 pm

Ah, the game's finally open. Sweet.

So we have another no kill. That's really good, and analysis of that has already been done. I really wish ecane had crumbed the N1 jail target, but since she didn't, I guess we can assume she was fairly sure she hadn't jailed the killer, but the victim?

I remain with Zorblag and Nacho as my townreads, which leaves Rach and Inno as the lynch pool. Of those, I still lean more town on Rach. Considering she is pushing for the inno lynch, I'll wait out her answers to Zorblag's questions first.

pedit: Looking into that now!

Zorblag · Post Post #730 (ISO) » Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:02 pm

@Foxbird, you can answer my questions to RachMarie as well. Actually, I'd like it if you do. If you think that innocentvillager is scum then all of those still have to be true of him and I don't expect to get that scum play in any of those cases. If you do then he makes sense as a Jaack partner for you, but if you think that they're compelling at all then they should be taken into account.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Zorblag · Post Post #731 (ISO) » Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:04 pm

@innocentvillager, what am I leaving off that list in terms of you being a poor choice for a partner for Jaack. I don't want anything about your play on it's own, I just want to look at your interactions for now. I know that I'm asking you to self meta to some degree, but clearly I have no issue with people doing that.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Foxbird · Post Post #732 (ISO) » Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:18 pm

One thing to note is that Jaack seemed very convinced of there being one scum in {Zorblag, Inno} and one in {Rach, me} (as per 638. The only player he wasn't suspecting was Nacho - based on the way he phrased his VCA in 577. However, he still did leave himself open to maybe voting Nacho (also in 638), which seems a bit fishy. That could easily be explained by scum keeping their options open instead of Nacho being scum; I assume that this is the case for now.
Concerning the first bracket pairing, Jaack had been pushing Zorblag as scum pretty heavily since D2, so that would be the safer bracket to put his buddy. He was leaning scum on both people in the other one, if I remember correctly, and he had pushed for both Rach and me at an earlier point, with roughly equal strength.

The relatively constant pushing of Zorblag solidifies my townread there, and points to a {Rach, IV} pool.

A very interesting post in Jaack's ISO is 636. Particularly, points 3,5 and 6 where he places himself as scum:

3. I'm scum; Zorblag and IV are town.
This works, although I would generally expect that the scum on a two person wagon would be the second person, particularly since IV had said that he didn't think my case on Zorblag was super strong.

5. Zorblag and I are scum; IV is town
This actually makes a little sense now that I'm considering it lol. Zorblag had the townreads to survive a planned attack from me. This is something we could have planned. It's not accurate because I'm not scum, but I can construct a good narrative here.

6. IV and I are scum; Zorblag is town
This does not make a lick of sense. If Zorblag were our hypothetical nk target, there's no way we would have tried to push his lynch like that the next day without some town cooperation or previous coordination. And if he wasn't our nk target, then why would we have been so desperate to lynch him the next day.

It's noteworthy that 3 lightly accuses Inno, whereas 6 clears him completely - in a scenario where one of them flips. The way 6 is phrased really makes me think, it's a very vocal defense of an IV/Jaack team. Now that we know Jaack was scum, this seems oddly out of place. It feels like a safeguard in case of a scum flip. Likewise, the way 5 is phrased makes me think that a Zorblag/Jaack team

is

possible, if I were looking at that without context.

That's all I have for now. I would really like if people commented on 636 as well.

Zorblag · Post Post #733 (ISO) » Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:29 pm

@Foxbird, I sort of got to that a bit in my second question to RachMarie. I can elaborate a bit though. There's certainly a fair amount of WIFOM in the whole post (especially as he starts listing himself in the scum options which he hadn't been doing in the vote count analysis earlier in the day.) I don't know that I'd expect him to put a partner in that pairing though; if he can get people to buy into his narrative then he's safer having both of the targets he's looking at as town which would leave scum in the other bracket. That's win win for him instead of losing a scum partner if town agrees but goes to the wrong scum candidate (i.e. actual scum.) You are correct that he'd been pushing you and RachMarie as scum with essentially equivalent strength. He'd had the two of you along with me in every one of his top three scum lists for most of the game. He was also heavily pushing me as scum since day one, right around when I switched my vote from you to RachMarie.

Having said all that, given that he was putting the scum pairings where he was an option in intentionally I'm inclined to completely ignore them rather than play the guessing game he was trying to get us to play if he was lynched. He put them in deliberately and we have the rest of the game to look at to figure things out; we don't need to try to outguess him where he knew we'd be trying to.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

innocentvillager · Post Post #734 (ISO) » Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:51 am

Lmfao jk I'm the idiot for not realizing nacho was confirmed after 4 days :/

Will get to this soon

innocentvillager · Post Post #735 (ISO) » Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:53 am

Yeah actually the only way this rationally makes sense is if scum tried to kill nacho n1 but failed because they were jailed or nacho was jailed.

RachMarie · Post Post #736 (ISO) » Sat Sep 03, 2016 4:01 am

Uhh I can only think of maybe 2 games EVER that I have been the NK? Im generally lynched on D1 or D2 and that is about 75% of the time regardless of alignment.

Since i am VT in this game I basically just ignored it during the night time. I had other games going on where I had serious PR stuff to do.

Like for example Mastins role madness game JUST ended and not long before that so did Homestuck which means I only now have ONE large Role Madness game I am in instead of THREE.

So yeah once a lynch was done, I pretty much waited for the mod to let me know the game started again.

OH and I do not bus because Im so much lynchbait bussing just is not something I do.

Im pretty sure its Inno and if it is not Inno then it has to be Fox and shes got bigger balls than I do to hammer her scum budz.

innocentvillager · Post Post #737 (ISO) » Sat Sep 03, 2016 4:57 am

I don't think hammering Jaack gives her that many town points. Imagine if she hadn't hammered. Either I would hammer and get the towncred, or no one would hammer and she would look bad for not hammering when we decide to lynch Jaack the next day. I think the best move for scum!Foxbird is to hammer Jaack in that situation.

In fact

VOTE: Foxbird

I might be persuaded to vote rach but I hunk Foxbird is a better lynch rn

innocentvillager · Post Post #738 (ISO) » Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:28 am

Nacho how sure are you that zorb was jailed N1?

Zorblag · Post Post #739 (ISO) » Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:12 pm

@innocentvillager, am I going to have to yell at you some more? Because if you think there's any chance that I'd put myself in a position where I have to deal with an extra day in this game as scum then I probably am. Someone made an unforced error (or intentional decision) as scum that caused this game to go an extra day if we don't get the lynch right this time around, but I can guarantee that that someone wouldn't be me with this game state and the current expressed suspicion. And that doesn't even take into account how unlikely a partner I should be for Jaack.

On the other hand, you have two of the five players listing you as their top suspect and probably willing to vote you fairly soon. I'd rather not see you mislynched if you're town. I think that you should point out any interactions with Jaack that you think should drive home how unlikely a partner you are. I'll also ask again as you ignored it, now that Jaack is confirmed scum, have you taken a look at his interactions with Foxbird and found them to be consistent with scum team play?

@RachMarie, I know that you think that innocentvillager is scum. Can you at least comment on the list of reasons that I gave that perhaps you shouldn't be thinking that?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Zorblag · Post Post #740 (ISO) » Sat Sep 03, 2016 7:30 pm

So here are some reasons that Jaack's partner should be RachMarie.

Jaack stopped her from getting lynched via action or inaction both of the first two days. Day 1 the viable alternative to Gratuitious was RachMarie. Jaack had her listed as a top suspect and Gratuitous as a town read but he did nothing at the end of the day to try to move that lynch. Unless he actually believed that Gratuitous was likely a power role (and his reason was utter nonsense prior to the bit where Gratuitious said he wasn't the lynch for the day,) he should have held off on making a town RachMarie lynch happen as it brought attention to him (and was in fact the first thing that I saw in his play which made me think he was scum.) Day 2 he actively supported the alternative wagon (foedufafa) from early in the day when, again, RachMarie was the alternative. The fact that he was consistently calling RachMarie scummy through both of those days makes it hard to believe that he'd prevent both of those lynches on her as town.

As I just said, Jaack consistently listed RachMarie as a top scum suspect, but also never voted for her. He's getting the advantage of calling her scummy which never actively casting that vote.

Those first two do have a counter argument. With both of them it's possible that he's planning on trying to leave her as a late game mislynch because she's so uniformally read as scum. I don't think I'd do that as scum as there were enough other players that are vulnerable in the game, but I guess I won't rule it out.

I've also said before that Jaack chainsawed me when I shifted my vote from Foxbird to RachMarie. To elaborate, when I made that shift he went on his paranoia kick saying that I was trying to manipulate him into looking bad by making the move. If RachMarie is a scum partner that's a fine technique to draw attention away from a partner without defending them; he's attacking her attacker. On the other hand, if RachMarie is town then either innocentvillager or Foxbird is scum. I was taking my vote off Foxbird (one Jaack had followed me onto,) which means if she was his scum partner he was OK going along with the bus until I voted for another of his top suspects which makes no sense for that attack on me. If innocentvillager is his scumpartner then rather than either sticking with Foxbird who he's happy enough attacking or switching to RachMarie who's also town and someone he should be fine attacking, he goes for me. Possibly he thought I'd be an easy lynch, but given the reads I'd been getting already that strikes me as unlikely. RachMarie scum seems like the best explanation for that move from my perspective.

We don't know who ecane jailkept the first night. I've been mentioned as an option based on what she said about me when asked by Foxbird and Nachomamma8 has been mentioned as a possibility both because of the lack of night kill last night and because he was overall town-read going into night one and the last read we have from ecane was that he was one of her town reads (Jaack also makes that town-read list so it's possible that he was jailkept as well for similar reasons.) On the other hand, here's her first post of day 2.

In post 284, ecane wrote:Alright, so I just skimmed back through D1 and the reasons behind Rach's votes on Gratuitous and Foxbird have mainly been about how they played last game with her and judged them pretty much based on that only. She jumped off the Fox wagon when other started backing off, and the vote on Grat wasn't any better. Looked like she just had to find something to not be totally without a reason. Her argument was the he was scum because he didn't play like that last game as scum so he must be faking it this time...(?) I don't see any sign of her being town in her recent posts as well.

I think she's the scummiest now, therefore
VOTE: RachMarie

Also she and especially Innocent both implied that they'd push or question me if the lynch flipped certain way, was a little bit surprised to not see that happen since they posted quite a lot since the day started. It would be pretty obvious of scum!Innoccent to make a case on me, he even said it himself that he would, when he for some reason scumread me at the end of D1 since he would obviously know that Gratuitous would flip town, so i don't know what's up with that. Don't know if he's avoiding 225 or not, but I'd like the answers to those questions as well.

That's entirely consistent with a Jailkeep of RachMarie during the night. No one else died so she was the player that was apparently most scummy to ecane based on her read (probably overnight,) and with the lack of a kill she'd have reason to believe that the jailkeep prevented it.

TL;DR:

Jaack's overall progression with RachMarie works for scum trying to distance without losing a partner, he protected her in non-obvious ways, and we should have some reason to think that RachMarie was ecane's jailkeep target night one.

This post is long enough, but I'll talk about some problems outside of what we should expect from her play with RachMarie as scum partner in my next post (spoiler: the biggest is that I'm still alive.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Zorblag · Post Post #741 (ISO) » Sat Sep 03, 2016 7:59 pm

So I'm alive in this game. If RachMarie is scum then her best move last night would have been to kill me. She must have known that I'm the player that suspects her the most right now, especially after Jaack flipped not only mafia, but roleblocker in particular. That means that unless she was worried about Nachomamma8 turning on her, she's got no reason to kill him unless she thinks that she can and that confirmed town power roles should always be killed.

But even that is problematic. Nachomamma8 was calling her town since day 1 and the game that she's playing as scum needs to keep Nachomamma8 in there to protect her; she'd tied her fortunes to him reading her as town and keeping her alive no matter what her alignment is. Clearly she's very vulnerable once he's dead so he shouldn't be any reason for that scum team to have submitted a night kill on RachMarie unless Jaack absolutely insisted on it. He might have, but I do think that I would have been a better night target for them there. Jaack didn't get traction trying to get me lynched and RachMarie probably respects my play enough to think that if I'm suspicious of here I'm best not left alive. That means that I don't think that scum team should have targeted Nachomamma8 night 1 (whereas any other might well have.)

If scum didn't target Nachomamma8 night 1 then the chances that they know they're making a bad play last night go up. They know that he's bulletproof and they know that a kill attempt on him won't give them anything for that night. That means that they either went ahead with it anyhow in order to kill him the next night or they chose to no kill. I think that everyone here (including RachMarie,) should know that the no kill would give town a free mislynch, so unless someone thinks that they are safe enough with the current game state they shouldn't make that move. Do I think that RachMarie would gamble on that?

Basically I have to think that RachMarie is either slightly less competent or significantly more competent than the range I have her at in order for that no kill to happen last night. Of course, that's probably true for anyone left in the game.

It's frustrating. RachMarie's defense (and by extension, Nachomamma8's defense of her,) is that she's bad enough at looking town when town she's lynch bait, that she won't bus as scum (apparently to the point of not even casting votes for a partner given that she doesn't think that Foxbird would have hammered there despite Foxbird almost being forced to by the game state if she's scum,) and that she's not going to try to manipulate town at all if she's scum because she's not that kind of person.

I'm not sure why she's playing mafia if all of that's true, but different people play the game for different reasons, and it's possible that hers is simple foreign enough to my mindset that I'm missing it.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Zorblag · Post Post #742 (ISO) » Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:12 pm

So where does all that leave me?

Nachomamma8 should be town. At this point, despite all that I hate about his play, I don't think that innocentvillager should be scum with Jaack. If they were a team then they tied themselves too tightly together with the attacks on me to make sense for day 3 to end like it did. That leaves Foxbird and RachMarie.

With Foxbird I don't really like the day 1 interactions for scum interactions. innocentvillager or RachMarie (or both?) asked about it day 3 and I took a look. I've taken another since Jaack's flip and I just think that they're too tied into debate with each other early game almost to the exclusion of the rest of the game. I don't expect scum to do that. Add the fact that Jaack was voting with me for Foxbird and then flipped his lid when I moved to RachMarie and I don't feel like there's a coherent scum strategy there. If he was bussing Foxbird that doesn't feel like the back off I'd expect.

So I'm wrong about someone somewhere. Big surprise.

At this point, we've got the luxury of a mistake to make. I'd rather go with the one that the external evidence screams most strongly for and eliminate the possibility than for one of the players I've got a weaker guilty case on. If I'm going to be wrong about it let's do it now so I can clear all that suspicion out and get things right tomorrow. Or, if my gut and the team-evidence that I see is right, then great, we get to end this today with a town win. Right now I don't really need to convince anyone I'm right in order to avoid losing the game. I want to hear reasons that I've got something wrong for any of the three because I'm fallible. I'd much rather get this lynch right than get my way here, but for now I think that both of those options are more likely to go through the RachMarie lynch.

VOTE: RachMarie

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

RachMarie · Post Post #743 (ISO) » Sun Sep 04, 2016 1:44 am

So because a scum player showed he was trying to buddy me you think I am scum? Seriously for real

What about my interactions with HIM, I went from town reading him to scum reading him and helped get him lynched. Which both Nacho and I have told you is not at all typical of my town play.

I have struggled in this game I will admit, much of it has been low activity.

Who was off the wagon on Jaack?

Inno was.

Who completely fooled me as scum because I am so used to him being town"

Inno did

RachMarie · Post Post #744 (ISO) » Sun Sep 04, 2016 1:53 am

My first game EVER on site I had a scum buddy me so much that he made me unlynchable and I was the bloody doc. I dont trust people who buddy me too much and never suspect me, with few exceptions. Nacho is one of them because I do know he busses his scum budz. And I know he would not go out on a limb for me if he was scum.

so that read is solid.

I have inno screaming at me that I am wrong about you and that you are scum. Yet he does not vote for Jaack who was scum.

I have Fox who I have seen play scum pretty well, but I just don't see her pulling a Nacho. That takes pretty big balls, and most scum play more conservatively.

And the fact that ecaine was voting for me because of lack of activity? That is your case? Seriously. I was V/LA and I understimated the time of the V/LA by a couple of days we actually discussed that because I was scum reading another player in another newbie game that just ended.

The player I scum read turned out to be the tracker and she eliminated one other person and we got the last scum caught. I can find the game if you want. Oddly enough it was the same mod. Newbie 1727. Chrimi and Accountant were going at it hammer and tongs, and BBT when he replaced in added to the mess, Wake cut through some of it when he replaced in and we lynched BBT because suddenly I had this idea he was scum, was a gut read which normally I don't go with, but in this case I did. It payed off.

Why do you think a Jaack/Inno team is not possible? Seriously.

RachMarie · Post Post #745 (ISO) » Sun Sep 04, 2016 1:57 am

I will say this If I were scum you would have been shot for sure. Seriously why would I even want to keep the player who brought life back to the game? You really think I am that bad at this game?

What I said, is that either alignment I tend to get lynched on D1 or D2 about 75% of the time. That is the part of the play I am working on by hydraing with players like Jiffy now and Nacho in the future.

I tend to be more of a logic and PoV person looking at everyone in the game big picture than a gut reader, so when people are not active, it makes it really difficult for me to peg everyone. Which is why I have struggled so much in this game. It is why I wanted Nacho's insight he is far better at pegging people quickly.

RachMarie · Post Post #746 (ISO) » Sun Sep 04, 2016 2:06 am

In post 726, Zorblag wrote:@RachMarie, so here are some reasons just right off the top of my head that we might doubt that innocentvillager is scum with Jaack:

The two of them at the start of day 2 were the only ones on my wagon and they were both pushing strongly. I seldom see scum coordinate an attack like that when there's no town to back them up.

Jaack at the end of day 3 was pushing for the town to pick between innocentvillager and I. If they're scum together he's better off pushing for a choice between two town as that should win the game. This ties into point 1 in that both of them based on their positions could easily have gotten on Foxbird push; they're already tied together with pushes so there's no reason to back off it now.

innocentvillager had to think that sticking by a no lynch which wasn't going to happen was a better move than trying to push a Foxbird lynch which there were clearly people sympathetic towards. He has to think so to the point where standing out with an opinion (the no lynch) was more valuable than working and blending in with the town to get a lynch that would win the game.
Let me know what you think of those.

Also, on an unrelated topic, how often are you a NK target Night 1? What do you think the chances of it happening this game might have been (assume that the jailkeep action protected you for whatever reason and just assess your chance of being a target.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

OK I have seen scum do this not push their partner at all. Or just add them into the list along with someone else they hope town will lynch instead. Your whole case is based on what one newbie is doing same with your case on ME, yet Inno is a far more experienced player, and so am I , even though I do have some weak areas. Yet you do not look at the interactions WE have with Jaack, instead you are basing your entire case on inno being town and me being scum on what Jaack said and did. That is a seriously faulty premise.

BTW its that premise that often gets scum Nacho to float to victory after bussing his scum budz on D1. Everyone is so focused on how Nacho behaved and giving him kudos and town cred, they do not pay attention to how the scum bud acted toward Nacho.

RachMarie · Post Post #747 (ISO) » Sun Sep 04, 2016 2:08 am

I have a bit more time now Homestuck and Mastin's crazy games have finally ended and I know now I need to not be in 3 flippin large role madness games at the same time.

RachMarie · Post Post #748 (ISO) » Sun Sep 04, 2016 2:11 am

So here is your challenge show how I have interacted with Jaack, show how inno interacted with Jaack.

I can promise you that had I been scum there is no flipping way you would still be alive in this game Troll none. After all yes Nacho was confirmed town but town reading me, and not likely to change, and fox was not super active, and inno goes both ways, but you were the one who kept the activity level up and kept town talking.

So yeah no way you would still be around if I were scum.

innocentvillager · Post Post #749 (ISO) » Sun Sep 04, 2016 3:22 am

Spoiler: Responding to stuff