Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Korlash]

Well if you both insist it then there has to be something on this Elias thing... He honestly never suspected him at all? That could change a few things...

Then again it could have been him trying to buddy up with someone... Dang I guess I will look over this PBPA thing you got and check it out myself...

Also let's say Elias is the second scum, who would most likely be the third then?

[Elias_the_thief]

no time for a major post, however:
Dybeck is an experienced player. Do none of you find it unlikely that he would purposefully NEVER post suspicion on me?

[Elias_the_thief]

*if we were scum together.
As in to say, its a move an inexperienced player would make.

[Elias_the_thief]

Also, response to all accusations will be up tomorrow.

[vollkan]

There is no one post... Go back and read any scumdar I ever made with sentences about the people, review the whole Vanilla town incident, and check out any posts I have ever made that gave connections between you and shaft.ed... I know I kept laying out evidence all day yesterday... But until i feel like voting you can go find it yourself...

I will get to this after this post.

More specifically my dislike of how you present your cases.. and so in my mind most of your cases, while very well thought out and explained, seem more or less BS once you begin to "tell how you think people should play" and to explain that means nothing to me I'm sorry. If you keep doing it, I will keep ignoring a lot of your better points because I feel they are baseless. And in so doing that I then feel you do not have enough on Elias to be attacking him, and in doing that I assume you are scum trying to push BS cases on people...

See it is all a domino effect to me. You say "I think this is how someone will play in this situation!" and then vote or press that attack a lot. So then I think "Oh this is BS" I post against it, you get on me, I reply back, we keep getting further and further away. And before you know it in your mind "I saved Elias" and in my mind "You just came at me with a fully BS case!"

see I think a lot of my feelings against you are mainly for that reason and no matter why you do it, as long as you do it I will feel the same... But if thats how you are going to play I will try to get over it...

Korlash, let me try and explain how I play to you:
I assess what I think to be the most likely scenario, based on the evidence. I then frame my interrogations around that scenario. Currently, that scenario is Elias as mafia with either yourself or Gemelli, and then possibly Lucienne as the third candidate. That doesn't mean that I am convinced that scenario is the case; it is simply the most logical way for me to approach things. Any assumptions on dybeck's behaviour that I make are only to build a framework for analysis; to lay the foundations if you will.

I don't know, what evidence have you given against Gem that gives him the #2 position?

Um no... you answer this first:

And what evidence have I given against Gem? Seriously... Or Elias for that matter... Other then one or two points I have pretty much left Elias alone, and have barely mentioned Gem today...

Don't say something like:

In fact, you actually give more evidence against Elias and Gemelli than you do against me.

If you cannot back it up...

I was referring to this:

[quote="Korlash"
So my new list...
1) Vollkan (You still seem to base too much of your case on hat you believe they should or will do. It makes me doubt most of the stuff you bring to the table. While I believe I can learn a lot from you i feel you try to hard to sway people by voicing what you believe a scum woudl do in certain situations.)
2) Elias (While I do not agree with at least half of Vollkan's case I believe there is enough evidence to suggest a partnership with Dybeck. Further proof will be required but I would not be against more pressure/discussion on the matter.)
3) Gem (While I do not remember much of him Advocating Dybeck the fact he brings it up means it happened somewhere. Vollkan said he would get to it and has yet too... Avoiding pressuring your scum partner?Razz )
4) Lucienne (Cannot remember the last time I heard her speak... Got a no result from AlyG, could be she never sent in any target, could be she got RBed, could be she is vanilla. Would appreciate some input ASAP) [/quote]

Your comments on me (your apparent #1) are entirely based on playstyle. In contrast, for Elias and Gemelli you actually look at tangible stuff relating to partnership with dybeck. That's my problem. You said you have been building a case on me (I will search for this in my next post, trust me) but here you make no reference to anything other than my playstyle.

Anyone else find it odd Vollkan can never give his own reasons or theories before he hears them from us first? I mean take the example i this post.. I ask him a question, he asked me to answer it first because he has no answer to it. Now take this, he could give a theory. Who cares if it influences you guys, that is what this game is about. Yet instead he asks you guys for them first...

Ohhh... Tsk tsk... I could honestly see this as you sitting there without any theory at all hoping someone else has one you can jump behind and support. Normally I wouldn't automatically assume this but I find you do it quit a lot... (And yeah this is when you ask me to "Give examples" or whatever you do.. And trust me I will have a list when and IF i vote you.. no worries there...)

I know I do this a lot. The reason is that I am determined to get an accurate "Before and after" perspective on what I say. It's basically to prevent people saying "Oh, well I changed my mind 2 pages ago, but I just didn't post anything."

I will post my theory at the end of this post. Gemelli's opinion was the most important to me in terms of impact on the theory.

I personally find voting in the first post of the day a little strange... But each player has his own play style (Even if yours is wacky...) So I do not label this a "Scumtell" and yes, I have no fear of a quick lynch. But at the same time I wonder why you would even say "I will unvote if another player votes!"

WHY EVEN VOTE? Can you answer this one... It has been bugging me ever sence you first said it a couple posts ago...

I suspect Elias the most, thus I vote Elias. I do not want Elias lynched at this stage, so I would unvote if the bandwagon got nay higher. It's pretty simple. A single vote is fairly meaningless.

Now, Gemelli.
First up, thankyou for posting your scumdar.

Oman/Korlash:

Regularly attacked him on D1 and D2 as probable mafia. Insinuated that he was paired with originality. Also argued that he could be SK. Strongly pushed for his lynch at the end of D2. I think it is

quite unlikely

that Korlash is aligned with Dybeck as mafia.

Korlash/dybeck is something I am going to be looking into shortly as well. I have a feeling that it may not be as unlikely as we think.

Lucienne:

Mostly ignored D1. Included her on suspicion list starting in post 888. Suggested that she might be the SK, but never includes her as a mafia suspect. I think it is feasible that Lucienne is aligned with Dybeck as mafia.

I'm not going to comment on Lucienne

yet

but I have some ideas.

Elias:

Never suspects him. Not even once. Responds respectfully to him once, asks for his help, enthusiastically welcomes him back, is "fairy happy" with Elias as pro-town, and gives him a 30% scumdar rating. THIS IS THE ONLY PLAYER REMAINING IN THE GAME WHO DYBECK DID NOT SUSPECT EVEN IN PASSING.

So that makes you and Orig who have both expressed suspicion of Elias.

Also let's say Elias is the second scum, who would most likely be the third then?

The Theory

Nothing too complicated really. Now, before people jump down my throat for speculation and wifom, understand that this is only the framework by which I currently see things. I am not calling it FACT; I am simply presenting it as what currently seems to be the case.

My Suspected Mafia

Elias_the_thief has obvious links to dybeck suggesting scum partnership. Korlash has been critical of my case on Elias, replaced the oh-so-scummy Oman and, moreover, I think that he may have been more linked to dybeck than we think. I intend to analyse this in detail, but I think that dybeck only really went after Oman when it was close to hammering time. There are other things, like Korlash being wishy-washy and stuff on dybeck at the end.

The Rest

AlyG

- I think it is safe to say that AlyG is a tracker. The only way she could be scum is if she was mafia with Orig. If that were the case, Orig would have to be mafia with dybeck which, of course, seems unlikely in the extreme.

Gemelli

- Links to dybeck and a dodgy case against me both make me uneasy. However, his later posts ring genuine to me and he has posted plenty of meaningful analysis, which is a town tell. Moreover, his scumdar is what I would have expected of him if he was pro-town.

Lucienne

- She is a lurker, she had no night action and shaft.ed was adamant in defending her. My gut instinct is that shaft.ed got an innocent on Lucienne N1 and that she is vanilla. I suggest you all look over shaft.ed's mentioning of Lucienne in the parser. She could be mafia with dybeck, but I currently think vanilla is most likely.

originality

- Either vig or SK. Either way, he isn't our play for today.

[Korlash]

Hmm... You know that doesn't sound half bad... Of course I disagree with the parts about me... Could explain Lucienne... Cant agree more about AlyG or Orig...

So to me it is between Vollkan, Gem, and Elias... So if you BOTH assume Elias is likely scum I have to take it as a good bussing from one of you, or you two ganging up on a suspicious towny...

So if I am a little bit... what is the word... critical, of your cases it is because you are obviously in my top three. (That is of course directed at all three of you)

I really didn't feel I was wishy washy on Dybeck... I gave him a chance to defend and he didn't... Don't think I can explain it any better then that...

Moreover, his scumdar is what I would have expected of him if he was pro-town.

Can I ask you what you mean by this? I mean if he said I was probably town, and you say I am probably mafia... Ehh... I just don't get what your saying here... How is his scumdar most likely from a pro-town?

[Gemelli]

My Suspected Mafia

Elias_the_thief has obvious links to dybeck suggesting scum partnership. Korlash has been critical of my case on Elias, replaced the oh-so-scummy Oman and, moreover, I think that he may have been more linked to dybeck than we think. I intend to analyse this in detail, but I think that dybeck only really went after Oman when it was close to hammering time. There are other things, like Korlash being wishy-washy and stuff on dybeck at the end.

The Dybeck-Oman/Korlash pairing seemed unlikely at first glance, but I need to look over this again. To me, the only strong pattern coming out of Dybeck's posts was the consistency with which he treated Elias. However, I only reviewed those posts via the parser, and as such may have missed a lot of the interactions between him and Oman. I'm going to have to review the Elias/Dybeck/Korlash scumbuddy possibility in more detail. I'm particularly keen on reviewing (a) the case I originally made against Oman, and (b) Elias's response to that case.

AlyG

- I think it is safe to say that AlyG is a tracker. The only way she could be scum is if she was mafia with Orig. If that were the case, Orig would have to be mafia with dybeck which, of course, seems unlikely in the extreme.

There is (as shaft.ed pointed out) a tiny possibility of AlyG being a scum tracker. I don't think it's at all likely, but I wanted to toss it out there to ensure it's not forgotten.

Lucienne

- She is a lurker, she had no night action and shaft.ed was adamant in defending her. My gut instinct is that shaft.ed got an innocent on Lucienne N1 and that she is vanilla. I suggest you all look over shaft.ed's mentioning of Lucienne in the parser. She could be mafia with dybeck, but I currently think vanilla is most likely.

Now that is interesting! I'm looking over shaft.ed's posts on D2 right now, trying to figure out who's still "in play" from his perspective. So far, I find that:

* He seems to go back and forth on Elias, Dybeck, Originality, AlyG, and myself, so I am going to guess that he didn't investigate any of those players.
* He is generally supportive of Vollkan, but questions his alignment in several posts late in D2 (most notably post 1007). He may have gotten an innocent result here, but I think it's more likely that he did not investigate him.
* He is almost entirely negative in how he posts about Oman. However, in post 1042, he claims that Oman has refuted many of his arguments, and unvoted. As such, I think it's unlikely that he investigated Oman.
* He does not post anything suspicious of Lucienne at all on D2. He "doesn't have a problem with her" in 491, gets a "mild town vibe" from her in 614, wants to hear more from her in 1175, FoS's Vollkan and originality for the "Lucienne sidetrack" in 1294, discusses a scenario in which Lucienne would be shown to be very likely non-mafia in 1363. (Notably, he repeatedly goes after Elias for lurking but does not take issue with Lucienne doing the same -- different circumstances, granted, but possibly notable.)

From this, I conclude that the most likely scenarios are:

(1) Shaft.ed did in fact get an innocent result on Lucienne, or
(2) Shaft.ed investigated one of the townies who died N1, and simply didn't see anything suspicious about Lucienne

I'm willing to go along with (1) for now, which -- as you point out -- puts Korlash a little farther under the microscope.

originality

- Either vig or SK. Either way, he isn't our play for today.

Agreed. I'll do some more cross-player interaction analysis tomorrow, but right now I think our crosshairs are more or less aligned.

[Gemelli]

So to me it is between Vollkan, Gem, and Elias... So if you BOTH assume Elias is likely scum I have to take it as a good bussing from one of you, or you two ganging up on a suspicious towny...

Korlash, from rereading D2, I find it hard to believe that Vollkan is mafia with Dybeck. If they are aligned, Vollkan spent the lion's share of the day bussing his partner, rather than joining townie wagons. Sure, a mafioso COULD have done that. But it seems to me that you have to make all sorts of wacky suspension-of-disbelief assumptions if you're going to entertain the possibility that Vollkan and Dybeck were in cahoots. Occam's Razor and all that.

I will admit that I had plenty of reservations about Vollkan on D2, but most of them centered around the possibility that he was setting up townDybeck for a mislynch. With Dybeck now confirmed as mafia, it's a lot harder for me to view him as a serious scum candidate.

As far as you suspecting me, that's a different matter altogether. I am well aware that there are things I've posted that could link me with Dybeck. So I would be happy to respond to your suspicions if you would just tell me what they are

[vollkan]

Moreover, his scumdar is what I would have expected of him if he was pro-town.

Can I ask you what you mean by this? I mean if he said I was probably town, and you say I am probably mafia... Ehh... I just don't get what your saying here... How is his scumdar most likely from a pro-town?

It's simple. Gemelli's scumdar was:

1) Elias
2) Lucienne
3) Korlash
4) Vollkan

If he was scum, I would have expected myself to be in a higher position than at least one of Elias and Korlash.

Now,

Dybeck's Links to Korlash

145: Accuses Vamp of distancing with Oman. He has his vote on Vamp. This is a common scum tactic, similar to the Vote/FoS combo. The rationale for this is that if you accuse them of being linked and one shows up town, it appears to suggest that you might be wrong about your partner.
150: FoSes Oman.
158: Again with the Oman/Vamp and also throws in Spurg as well
No mention of Oman again until...
385: Where he simply discusses the merits of lynching SKShaft.ed with Oman.
391: Says Oman's scenarios for the game are not likely.
432: Thinks Orig is scummier than BS and Oman
673: Randomly mentions he leans to Oman as SK but "it could be anyone". Again, more kid glove attacks
688: Puts Oman fourth on the list for Orig NKs. If Oman was not on his list, given the suspicion of Oman, it would look odd. Thus, Oman is placed in the last spot.
845: More suggestion of Oman as SK
888: Another list, this time with Oman in second place to No Kill. By this stage, No Kill was looking most definite.
951: The arbitrary thing to drop the hammer.
969: Thinks Oman is mafia with Orig
973: More of the above
1074: Suggests lynching Korlash
1089: Votes Korlash
Many other mentions of Korlash as scum with probably shaft.ed

Okay, what we notice here is that his suspicion of Oman/Korlash is ALWAYS with somebody else as the partner. Dybeck was constantly attacking Korlash, but only once it became clear that one of them was going down. That can point to one of two things:
1) Korlash is not scum with dybeck and dybeck was trying to score an easy lynch
2) Korlash is scum with dybeck and dybeck was attempting some last-minute distancing.

I'd like to know what people think.

Now,

Oman/Korlash to Dybeck

No real mention until
263: Where he "seconds" Ryan's questions on dybeck
297: Votes Ryan, one of his reasons is bullying of dybeck
306: Defends dybeck over alleged rolefishing (?)
312: Again with the bullying
365: Says he is tempted to vote dybeck, but AlyG is worse
381: Votes dybeck
383: Argues against dybeck
386: More argument. Unusually long post for Oman
393: Still suspects dybeck
402: Jumps over to AlyG
434: More argument
440: Votes dybeck
445: Interesting post.

dybeck does make a good point about the strangulation flavour, and i don't really thing Carrotcake was that bad...but I don't really want to lynch a orig for that

as this is his first vig role

and its possible he's not a great target chooser.

He assumes Orig is vig.
454: Votes Orig.
461: Suggests AlyG track dybeck
508: Unvotes, will go on dybeck or AlyG
510: Follows me and votes dybeck
537: Suggests either dybeck or AlyG for lynch
691: NK list. Dybeck is second but No Kill is WAAAY first
717: Says dybeck should be #2 on the list, but leaves open for Elias or Lucienne
720: Says he made a mistake and #2 should be Orig (wtf?!)
956: I swear I was voting dybeck
<Exit Oman> <Enter Korlash>
1125: Thinks that the mafia are Vollkan, Orig, and either shaft.ed or dybeck. The addition of dybeck on the end is kid-glovish.
And this:

would rather Lynch the most likely mafia, Orig, today, take you out tomorrow, and hope either shaft.ed or Dybeck.

THIS is extremely interesting and scummy as all hell.

He maintains this bizarre Vollkan/shaft.ed/dybeck line for some posts

1173: dybeck is most likely
1182: Votes dybeck to L-2. Wants to hear content from him
1189: Wants me to explain the L-1 vote on dybeck
1216: Thinks dybeck should vote Orig
1221: Now Lucienne is his #1 candidate...odd
1253: "I'm more interested in Lucienne and Elias then him and Orig"
1267:

if Dybeck is really the cop I think he should more or less be telling you to go F*** your numbers.
....
4) Dybeck- %45
~Do not fully believe his claim because of a few things, did not immediately switch vote after claiming guilty investigation, seemed to waver a bit from his original target. But he seems more or less sticking with his "lynch Orig" policy now even with Vollkan repeatedly attacking him for it. I can see both sides ATM but am finding it hard to agree with Dybeck mostly because he does not have that "posting flair" Vollkan does.

1279: Top suspects are dybeck and Elias
1310: Dybeck #1 for lynch/vote list
1334: Leaning to dybeck or Orig. Votes dybeck
1345: "Also I keep seeing that you are worried about a mislynch. If I believe Dybeck's claim, then I would be sure Orig was mafia, and thus we would not mislynch. And that will more or less prevent half of your bad scenarios right there! It all seems to be a win-win in my mind here..."

There is definitely some attacking here, but there are also a few kid-glove/distancing things.

The links between them are not as strong as dybeck-Elias; that much is clear.

[Korlash]

My suspicions of you... You more or less just said that out of my three candidates it is unlikely Vollkan is scum.. so I am left with you and Elias...

That is about it...

I'm not much of a case maker so I just try to put everyone else's together...

I'm willing to go along with (1) for now, which -- as you point out -- puts Korlash a little farther under the microscope.

I'm not making the connection here.. how does her being an investigated innocent put me further under the microscope? Is it just that you have eliminated one of your suspicions and so the rest get more suspicious? If so thats cool. That is more or less all I have done lately.

Right now I am in a moral delimah(sp). I Know I have to pick at least one side to either trust/support here based on the evidence... I mean you cant all three be mafia...

But I promise to actually review this so called Dybeck-Gem link I keep hearing you talk about. I didn't see it at first glance and so it requires a full on reread going back.. is 10 pages enough? Would it take more then that?

Unfortunately I have to be up early so it is bed time for me... *yawn*

Just don't lynch me till I get back tomorrow (That was a joke...)

dangit a post form Vollkan.. I guess bed can wait... post again in a second...

[Korlash]

If he was scum, I would have expected myself to be in a higher position than at least one of Elias and Korlash.

While that sounds a lot more arrogant then I think a town player should be I am going to assume it is because you know you are town...

Not much I can say about the links thing... especially the things Oman did... But I do want to mention two things:

a)

He maintains this bizarre Vollkan/shaft.ed/dybeck line for some posts

So you see I did have some kind of case on you yesterday, whether you think it was BS or not.

and
B)

THIS is extremely interesting and scummy as all hell.

Why? This was way back when I believed Orig to be most likely mafia and not the Vig/Sk... I thought we already went through this...

[vollkan]

Why? This was way back when I believed Orig to be most likely mafia and not the Vig/Sk... I thought we already went through this...

Okay, let's have a look at your "plan":
1) You want "mafia" Orig lynched, when obviously that was a nonsense position since his NK was already guaranteed if he was mafia
2) Take you me tomorrow. Planning the next day's lynch is a scumtell. The scumminess of this will ring more to me than anybody else (because only I know my aignment) but I think the point is still readily apparent.
3) Hope either shaft.ed or Dybeck get NKed. The only way for it to be feasible that dybeck be NKed is if he were mafia with Orig, which is something we could pretty much rule out, even at that stage. As for shaft.ed, well we now know that he was NKed and was protown, the cop no less, which makes this 3rd point seem incredibly suspect.

[Korlash]

Ok... Anyone else feeling some kind of Deja Vu going on here?... Anyone else feeling that? I know I am...

[vollkan]

Korlash's Case on Vollkan

1116: If I was actually protown "I would not be worried about a vanilla claiming". I'll be polite and just call this bullshit.
1119: Height of the vanilla debate. Most of it was krap logik defenses, though Korlash did say he expects me to NK Orig and push his lynch tomorrow. He also says my attacks of him are lame.
1125: Thinks I am making too big a deal of Korlash doing a "I am town" softclaim. Thinks I am mafia

with

shaft.ed (obviously false) and am distancing against dybeck (I know this to be false, and you should at least see it as severely unlikely). Interesting that there is no actual explanation as to

why

I (or shaft.ed) are mafia. No worry, I am sure the "case" will surface at some point
1140: "My theory of a Vollkan, Shaft.ed, Dybeck trio is embedded in my mind" because of the attacks over the vanilla claim. This isn't a case against me; I stand by everything that was said about the vanilla claim. Additionally, you are here attacking shaft.ed for the vanilla thing when you now KNOW that he was genuine pro-town. So, even if you disagree with me on your vanilla claim being anti-town, you can see that shaft.ed, confirmed town, took the same position.
1142 Votes shaft.ed and contradicts self with this:

i never voted Vollkan because I felt it seemed to OMGUSish, not to mention i had not been fully set on you three being the scum.

Well, Korlash, it was "embedded in your mind" just two posts ago...now you aren't "fully set".
1148: Again says the arguments against him are "false". Then we have that bogus list of my "false claims" which I dissected and rebutted all of. He then moves on to attack shaft.ed as well.
1163: Suggests that he thought shafted/vollkan as mafia was viable because we had the same views. He then reiterates that I was his top suspect (why?...) and that shaft.ed seemed most linked to me. However,

I more or less disagree with this now as I see all my own flaws. I still admit you and Vollkan have a few things linking you, but no more then any player-to-player links you gain during a 45 page game. As for a Vollkan-Dybeck link, I admit the degree of distancing that would require is pretty unnecessary so I also find myself different minded on that one.

So, here we have Korlash admitting his faults and that vollkan-Dybeck is not likely. Glad to have found this.

and then,

If this is true then I am slightly less inclined to think he is scum. If he has in fact been playing this way all game (I may not have noticed it on my read) then The fact he seemed to come at me like he did doesn't seem as scummy as it did earlier. I admit this right here is a good reason some of my suspicion on Vollkan has dropped (among other things) and so if what he said is false I woudl like someone to mention it. Or even say how true it is. It would save me a lot of reread time.

1167:

Vollkan wrote:
"Top suspect"? If you are now accepting my comments regarding the vanilla claim, then what is your case against me?

I meant my "top suspect then" not top suspect now. Simple misunderstanding ^^

Aww <3 Korlash revokes the case against me

1173: "Also the Shaft.ed/Vollkan "hate" as you put it stemmed from a small bit of paranoia and a big misunderstanding I blew out of proportion."
1213: Criticises me for making assumptions about people's behaviour
1231: This needs background. I had just asked K1orlash who he most wanted lynched out of SKOrig or mafdybeck. Korlash answered with "Lucienne. I mean all she has done for the past." He also gave an ambivalent thing referring to how "you all had a long conversation about how lynching Orig is bad." and, on that basis, said he was "sure if a Guilty investigation will change anything". Now, I then attacked Korlash for this. His response here in 1231 was to demand that I stop over-reacting and being paranoid
1237: Continues this paranoid accusation here, suggesting I am always seeing what he says as scummy
1261: More of this
1267: Understands my logic in not wanting to get rid of Orig, but thinks dybeck is justified in his hardline stance because "counting on your fingers and toes pales in comparison to actual hard evidence". Says I am wrong 9 times out of 10. (I guess dybeck was the 1 then ) Thinks my traps are ineffective.

3) Vollkan- Even %50
~Personal Feelings aside, I think he is one of the best players I have ever seen so I respect a lot he has been saying and tend to agree with him about certain stuff. Some things look pro town to me, while others seem a bit more... I don't know... (I would laugh my head off if he turned out to be the Vig/Sk XD)

Aside from the vagueness of your suspicions ("some things") you clearly do not have any substantial case on me. Later on, you also say that the only way shaft.ed could be scum is as my partner
1298: Says to Elias: "You have NO PROBLEMS with either of them? [Vollkan or shafted] None at all? Even after Gem's huge Vollkan thing?" Trying to drum up suspicion on shaft.ed and me
1310: Vaguely supports Gem's case, saying I dodged "some points" *blink* Suggests I should admit my mistakes more. That's it. This continues when he "updates" his scumdar: On the lynch/vote list

4) Vollkan- I cannot ignore my gut feelings I got through my read up. But it is true his play style is something I am not used to. I like how in depth he is with posts, his way of thinking, and how aggressive yet to the point he can seem. I cannot look past the "Following Shaft.ed" angle, or the fact that Gem has made a few good points I agree with.

No case still.

On the pressure list:

3) Vollkan- While I dread any future long ass posts from you I feel you can really narrow things down to this or that, your numbers while I don't read them seem to be good tools for other players (Gem and Shaft.ed at least), and overall I feel you have taught me in my newbiness a lot this game.

1341: Thinks I am being arrogant in my defence of Orig. Given dybeck was mafia, I feel vindicated in this regard

And that's it until this day.

So....basically, I have become Korlash's number one suspect for absolutely NOTHING! He repudiated all the earlier stuff from the vanilla debate (which was krap logik anyway) and has only ever done this vague "I agree with Gemelli" stuff. Aside from what looks like a distaste for my personal style and attitude, there is not a shred of any substance to this. He just keeps repeating the mantra that I seem scummy (until I stop attacking him that is). Now, on D3, he has opened up with me as his #1 and with nothing to back this up.

HoS: Korlash

Korlash, you have some serious explaining to do. You have never, EVER presented a case against me. I'm

this close

to voting you right now, but I want to hear back from Elias first.

[Korlash]

You have never, EVER presented a case against me.

Actually my first... third? Anyways.. one of my first posts was me mentioning three separate occasions during the day you tipped my radar. That can be argued to have been a case.

But simple semantics aside, you have been on top of my list ever since those "Traps" of yours. Any playstyle that allows you to slip out of any "Bad play" simply by claiming it a trap is something I cannot condone. And while I may or may not have "repudiated all the earlier stuff from the vanilla debate" your post 1436 clearly shows you are still willing to hang me for that case. So either agree that I have dropped it or continually press it. I don't care which one. You just need to stop playing both sides...

And because I clearly cannot trust you I will do my own reread and find any case I brought against you yesterday. If I find one I suppose that will more or less make you my vote of the day.(Seeing as how you just plainly said I NEVER had one and that would be more or less a lie) But does that make it more likely Gem or Elais is your partner.. that one I may have to think about...

Anywho, Vote me or don't. It's up to you. I do not feel I have anything to explain. So I won't bother. I will just say Good night all! (Town only. I hope all the scum have evil bad nightmares!!!)

And

FoS: Vollkan

for thinking Bolding the "this close" makes any difference online... =D
(that was a joke... Yeah I know you didn't know that which is why I just told you. Yes I do think you are that slow. No I am not reading your mind. Yes you should go outside now.)

[vollkan]

Actually my first... third? Anyways.. one of my first posts was me mentioning three separate occasions during the day you tipped my radar. That can be argued to have been a case.

You can tell that someone is reaching when they rely on something in one of their first posts which "can be argued to have been a case".

Anyway, I missed that post you refer to; I was reading it in reverse order and thought I had hit your first post when I hadn't.

Anyway, it was your second post
Your 3 points:
1) You think I am too readily assuming shaft.ed is pro-town by writing him off my mafia list, suggesting we are scum together. This has been proven wrong, so let's move on.
2) You criticise a trap of mine. Again, this shows nothing.
3) Criticising my stance on Orig NKing. I have already explained this about a zillion times.

Okay, done. Anything else?

[Korlash]

Nope... Not until my reread...

Random ellipse to piss you off...

...


And this one too...

><...

[vollkan]

But simple semantics aside, you have been on top of my list ever since those "Traps" of yours. Any playstyle that allows you to slip out of any "Bad play" simply by claiming it a trap is something I cannot condone.

Right, so I am your suspect on

policy

grounds. I really don't need to make any comment on this.

And while I may or may not have "repudiated all the earlier stuff from the vanilla debate" your post 1436 clearly shows you are still willing to hang me for that case. So either agree that I have dropped it or continually press it. I don't care which one. You just need to stop playing both sides...

Korlash, if you repudiate an argument, you cannot then invoke it again unless you assert fresh justification. However, I can still hold that against you, because you still said it. Admitting you were wrong can work as damage control, but it doesn't just void your responsibility. This looks like a very slippery move by you to throw off part of the argument against you and I do not like

green eggs and ham

it at all

[Gemelli]

There is definitely some attacking here, but there are also a few kid-glove/distancing things.

The links between them are not as strong as dybeck-Elias; that much is clear.

Agreed. Once we get beyond that relationship, we end up having to do a lot of what-ifs. I see where you're going here, but right now (analysis still pending) I think that Elias is a much stronger candidate. Waiting to hear his responses.

I would agree with you that most of Korlash's case against you seems to be weak. I'm not sure if that is itself a scumtell, but I was obviously wrong about the scumtells you guys identified from Dybeck.

I'm not making the connection here.. how does her being an investigated innocent put me further under the microscope? Is it just that you have eliminated one of your suspicions and so the rest get more suspicious?

You were #3 on my list until Vollkan provided an excellent reason for me to bump Lucienne down. That moves you up to #2.

My suspicions of you... You more or less just said that out of my three candidates it is unlikely Vollkan is scum.. so I am left with you and Elias...

That is about it...

I'm not much of a case maker so I just try to put everyone else's together...

Well, if you're assembling cases from people that you believe to be Mafia, you are not doing yourself any favors.

Obviously, Vollkan's play style is based on high-volume analysis and dissemination of information. That's not your style, and I accept that. But as we're approaching endgame, I think it's in the town's best interest for you to start getting a little more specific in explaining why you find player X more scummy than player Y. You'll notice that whatever you might think of myself and Vollkan, we are both putting in the effort to explain each position on our scumdar.

You've indicated that you are going to do a reread of Vollkan -- stock up on Visine! -- and I think that's good. I'm looking forward to hearing your thoughts on me and Elias, too.

Something that occurred to me this morning as I struggled out of bed: we've identified three possible/likely power roles for town in this game (Tracker, Cop, Vig), as well as any other power roles that have yet to be revealed. If we only have three scum, is this a bit overpowered in favor of the town? Does this increase the possibility that there is a Godfather among the scum, or possibly even a scum power role?

The reason I ask is that the possibility of a Lucienne Godfather makes some sense to me, as it could explain:

* Shaft.ed's pro-town vibe on her (he investigates her N1, gets an innocent)
* Dybeck's treatment of Lucienne (does not mention her until 888, then starts claiming that she is the SK -- notably AFTER the town has started commenting that lynching the SK would be a bad play)
* Dybeck's treatment of Oman/Korlash (which could be bussing, but is in marked contrast with how he treats Elias and Lucienne)

I don't know how serious this scenario is yet, but I wanted to throw it out there while it was still fresh, and before the coffee wears off.

[Gemelli]

I'd like to extend birthday greetings to shaft.ed, our dearly departed cop. I will light a candle in his honor, hoping that the mystical aether will carry our goodwill to his spirit, and that in turn we will receive a message from beyond the grave about his N2 investigation result </joke>

Anyway, I've re-read my case and shaft.ed's case against Oman as stated in posts 1005 (shaft.ed) and 1055 (mine). The key points came down to:

* Oman's comments stating that "the town is strong" and that "the idea was that you'd catch scum without me" at a point where most of the active players had him listed as the primary or secondary suspect --> Possibly just semantics. Strange wording but not enough for a vote by itself, IMHO.

* Oman's heavy-handed bandwagonning --> A null tell? Oman does seem to bandwagon heavily regardless of alignment.

* Oman's listing AlyG on his "orig should consider killing" list before pressure caused him to switch it --> Fairly substantial. His responses to this point seemed evasive and unconvincing to me.

* Oman's rolefishing against Dr. BS in posts 239 and 242, combined with an attack on ryan for rolefishing in post 306 -- and all of this after explaining in post 218 that rolefishing is bad --> Significant. Reading posts 218, 239, 242, and 306 in order, you see Oman arguing both sides of the fence on the rolefishing issue. When he does it, it's OK because information always helps town; when Ryan does the same thing, it deserves a vote and is an obvious scumtell.

===========

The other thing I wanted to look at was Elias's response to these arguments. It turns out that he never responded to them at all; he was planning to (post 1037) but never got around to it.

Some other D2 posts of Elias's, for reference purposes if nothing else:

* Post 1021: Response to Vollkan's case against Dybeck
* Post 1035: Responds to Vollkan's theory that Elias might be mafia
* Post 1085: Long response to Vollkan post explaining the "lynching Orig is bad" position
* Post 1227: Response to Vollkan post: Korlash-Gemelli-Lucienne possible scum group
* Post 1255: Reacts to Dybeck's cop claim
* Post 1272/1274: More reaction to cop claim; Dybeck is preferred lynch
* Posts 1277, 1295, 1297, 1307: Back-and-forth with Korlash
* Post 1356: "Dybeck's scum"

As to D3 content, I wanted to respond to a few Elias posts:

Um...I was going off of your post's list of uncertains...if you look at that post, you already have dybeck written off as cop or mafia, which was my opinion at the time. I was simply speculating as to the uncertains.

But that's not what you said. You said "Assuming we have 3 scum, there is our scumgroup." You didn't include Dybeck in the equation at all.

Dybeck is an experienced player. Do none of you find it unlikely that he would purposefully NEVER post suspicion on me?

He may be experienced, but he was on the defensive for almost all of D2, having triggered the town's collective scumdar early. And you could just as easily ask the question: why would a mafia purposefully NEVER put suspicion on someone he knew to be town? The answer to both questions is probably the same: the "average mafia" would probably not "purposefully" do either thing. But the fact is, Dybeck has done exactly that. Don't you think it's worth speculating why he treated you differently than everyone else in the game?

[Gemelli]

EBWOP: The second Elias quote was from post 1426, not 1396.

[vollkan]

I would agree with you that most of Korlash's case against you seems to be weak. I'm not sure if that is itself a scumtell, but I was obviously wrong about the scumtells you guys identified from Dybeck.

It is a scumtell. He is holding suspicion of me for arbitrary reasons and no substantive case. What do you think of this theory: If Korlash is scum, he and his partner were hoping that getting rid of shaft.ed would cause you (Gemelli) to attack me more. That might explain Korlash's baseless suspicion of me from the start of this day and his vague support for your case.

Something that occurred to me this morning as I struggled out of bed: we've identified three possible/likely power roles for town in this game (Tracker, Cop, Vig), as well as any other power roles that have yet to be revealed. If we only have three scum, is this a bit overpowered in favor of the town? Does this increase the possibility that there is a Godfather among the scum, or possibly even a scum power role?

Excellent point.

It is extremely common to have a godfather in three-scum groups. The fact we have a cop, a tracker and a vig suggests that the scum might have a godfather, or a mafia roleblocker. Hmm...what if Orig was RBed last night?

Orig, did you send in a night choice and, if so, whom? If you are SK, know that you will not be lynched for admitting to this. The point is that it will tell us something very important about the mafia.

As for Lucienne being the godfather, it is a possibility. One other remark, though, is that often, though not always, godfathers need to be the one to commit the kill. However, that certainly does not rule the possibility out.

* Oman's heavy-handed bandwagonning --> A null tell? Oman does seem to bandwagon heavily regardless of alignment.

I have played in quite a few games with Oman and he bandwagons regardless of alignment. However, the trick is to look at how he is bandwagoning and if it seems scummy. If he has good reasons for wagoning, it is not a scumtell. But when he doesn't, unless it is a random wagon, it suggests he may be scum.

But that's not what you said. You said "Assuming we have 3 scum, there is our scumgroup." You didn't include Dybeck in the equation at all.

This is a good point. I had said that dybeck was mafia or cop. Elias just ruled out the mafia option and pegged those 3 as the scumgroup.

He may be experienced, but he was on the defensive for almost all of D2, having triggered the town's collective scumdar early. And you could just as easily ask the question: why would a mafia purposefully NEVER put suspicion on someone he knew to be town? The answer to both questions is probably the same: the "average mafia" would probably not "purposefully" do either thing. But the fact is, Dybeck has done exactly that. Don't you think it's worth speculating why he treated you differently than everyone else in the game?

This makes me think. Dybeck was, as you say, on the defence all D2 virtually. The only player he was consistently attacking was Orig. Indeed, we put him in a Catch-22 by attacking dybeck for arbitrary suspicion of shaft.ed and myself. Thus, dybeck was effectively locked into suspecting Orig. If he had gone on a tirade against Elias, I think he knew that he would come under suspicion.

[originality]

The night choice I sent in was "no kill".

[originality]

Plus I find it more likely that if the scum had a RB they would have targeted AlyG. He is a bigger threat to them because if I went and killed someone, probability wise it would be a townie over scum, which is extremely good for them. And they know that if I killed someone I'd be under loads of suspicion today because I said I wouldn't, so I think they would rather let me kill someone if they could help it. It makes no sense for them to RB me.

And since I'm here, I'll post my scum list:
1) Lucienne
2) Elias (all points against him have been extremely good)
3) Korlash (But probably Elias)

And by the way, even if dybeck hadn't been crazy about lynching me yesterday I still can't be mafia. This is because I did not kill someone, while dybeck's mates did.

[vollkan]

And since I'm here, I'll post my scum list:
1) Lucienne
2) Elias (all points against him have been extremely good)
3) Korlash (But probably Elias)

It's very interesting that the only people that haven't agreed with the Elias case are Korlash and Elias. Your suspicion of Lucienne is based on her just parroting what other people have said, right?