Mini 1822: Welcome to Typhon - Night Four

[Infinity 324]

I do not understand the heat on Seraphim at all. His frustration surrounding the events of early Day 2 is relatable and his claim looks town (does not want to hold up the game, reminding the rest of us what tomorrow looks like with a mislynch, and the like). As far as I can tell, nobody has bothered to produce anything resembling a case, leading me to believe that either those voting him think the points are obvious (they are not) or that they are happy to simply get on Leonshade's shoulders without actually admitting it. Reading through his ISO the only thing that pinged me was the vote on Leonshade, but that was pretty clearly a deadline thing. His thought processes are very apparent in his posts and show organic progression.

Did you miss the part where he had me as one of his strongest townreads and then changed to wanting to lynch me without giving reasoning, then started pushing on leon?

This is a good thought, but the rest of us should also be thinking about the converse: how likely would it be that Dunnstral would be a scum PT checker? PT checker sounds like the kind of role that scum might have, as detecting town or third party with private topics would naturally benefit them. At the moment, we cannot write either Dunnstral or Zach off as town.

I don't think dunnstral would've claimed there as scum PT checker

[Infinity 324]

Let's lynch suzune

[Infinity 324]

^^ that's my "something resembling a case"

Almost no one is townreading her

[Infinity 324]

Did you miss the part where he had me as one of his strongest townreads and then changed to wanting to lynch me without giving reasoning, then started pushing on leon?

Isn't this addressed in post #1557?

That easily could've been made up after the fact.

You said his read progressions looked genuine, that was a glaring hole.

I'll get back into this game in a couple days, I should probably meta lucian, impo, and suzune. (If someone can give me links to their games, especially their scum games, that would be helpful.) I'll look over suzune' posts again and try to explain what I'm seeing there.

I'm comfortable calling zach and dunn town for now, btw.

[Infinity 324]

Neighborizer isn't conf town but prob town

[Infinity 324]

No, it's not. Neighborizer + PT checker both being town is impossible in this game.

what

If anything they make each other

more

likely to be town

[Infinity 324]

Oh I though you meant where he explained it after I questioned him on it. The reasoning in 1557 was vague and I found it lacking for a complete read change.

I can see what people are saying about his recent posting being town; I could see it being faked by scum though.

[Infinity 324]

I assume you would like reads that are not just a list of information, for that to be said I will need some time to type them up. I personally like that you scum read me for not caring about the teams too much frog. That makes me laugh a little. I think it is just a distraction to keep us from thinking logically, although I do appreciate Zach's ideas of using them as a short list.

This feels fake to me

[Infinity 324]

Jae is town because they've gone really in depth with their reads and they seem to be trying to read people instead of trying to justify their reads. Plus a bunch of things they said really resonated with me.

[Infinity 324]

Zach is actually right that there needs to be more gamespovong in this thread. From everyone, including me. Including him.

[Infinity 324]

quote="In post 1930, Infinity 324"]I think I'd be less likely to be fooled by grapes or scout than lucian or impo.

What? Why in the world would you say grapes is less likely to be well-playing scum than Lucian or me?
[/quote]

Well first of all I've seen grapes' meta

Second of all, the nitpicky detail grapes went into in explaining his reads d1 is very hard to imagine as a scum mindset

[Infinity 324]

Zach, you should explain why you townread suzune

[Infinity 324]

UNVOTE:

Those are not posts scum makes when they are going down. Throwing out the unpopular theory of a me/scout scumteam looks towny to me.

suzune, I understand you're frustrated with my play, but I could do without the insults. Town has to work together, after all...

Speaking of which, I would like it if you went into a little more detail about what bothers you about impoetic and lucian.

Zach, I want to talk to you about your scumreads outside of jae.

[Infinity 324]

4 days until deadline, I guess we can go back to a seraphim lynch although that's pretty lazy. I want to at least sort lucian and impo better before the end of the day. Maybe the vig won't be shooting in the dark so much.

I was thinking about what lucian did to me on d1 that I townread me for, that suzune called "coaching", it may have been an attempt to pocket me like suzune said with the unintended consequence that it made me look towny.

Jae, who do you want to lynch?

[Infinity 324]

I might want to lynch sera if only to make sure the vig shot goes to town.

[Infinity 324]

I'm gonna do something I usually do, and trust jae's read on lucian. I find it very unlikely that jae is scum, and from the way they're talking, it seems very unlikely that lucian is scum if they're town. So ok.

@Suzune wrt impoetic, I've seen her do similar things as town, but I haven't seen her scum meta. I'll have to check that out and ISO her again.

@Jae Who are your weakest townreads now that suzune moved up?

@Zach Can we talk scumreads other than jae?

[Infinity 324]

I don't* usually do

Those are not posts scum makes when they are going down. Throwing out the unpopular theory of a me/scout scumteam looks towny to me.

Yea I dunno seems like a going against the grain for the sake of going against the grain thing at this point.

Like maybe I'd see where you're coming from if she was like heartily pushing that stance at all bt just tossing out what ifs that don't seem like realistic thoughts to have (especially given the gamestate) doesn't scream town to me and is something she's more than capable of faking.

But suzune doesn't really have a legit plan not to get lynched. She's still taking it slow and considering all possibilities which--while a good plan for scum in good shape, is risky to rely on for stopping your lynch. If suzune was trying to towntell as a last-ditch attempt, she would be making it more obvious.

[Infinity 324]

@Suzune wrt impoetic, I've seen her do similar things as town, but I haven't seen her scum meta. I'll have to check that out and ISO her again.

This. I was more wary of Impo when she was more sure of herself.

Do you think she could've adjusted her play based on you calling her out for it? Kind of a stretch but eh

@Jae Who are your weakest townreads now that suzune moved up?

Dunn & Zach. One is scum, one is town. So the moment the scum outta them flips, the other becomes one of my stronger townreads, just below scout.

Strongly disagree here. First of all, I don't think scum would bother with random dumb arguments that don't make them look any better. Second of all, unless you have info you don't want to talk about yet, I still don't see why there wouldn't be both those town roles in the game? Like suzune said, if the mod wanted a cop in the game, there would be a cop not a PT checker. I suppose there could be a mafia traitor, but it's still very likely that there is a town role that has access to a PT.

VOTE: sera

[Infinity 324]

People have a legit plan not to get lynched? I thought most people start the game with that as a plan. I have only ever been mislynched as town twice, so I did not want this to be a third. This is the lazy town, remember what I say, pick up in case I died. So as much as I love the credit, I am not always a scheming mastermind. Sometimes I am a tired, overworked, professional who is trying to be useful in case she dies.

I'm talking about a hypothetical scum!you, in that case I think you would have a better plan to avoid rope.

Trying to be useful in case you die is exactly what I'm talking about, something that town does but scum often doesn't bother to fake.

VOTE: sera

What's with the revert?

Suzune's latest posts looked towny to me. I haven't seen a lot from sera that makes me think he's town, and I want to make sure the vig shot goes to town.

[Infinity 324]

Ok fine

[Infinity 324]

Explain to me how scum!suzune would expect people to townread her based off that.

[Infinity 324]

V/LA for a couple days

[Infinity 324]

Uugh is that a scum post??

[Infinity 324]

Well in the daycop flavor there was a hint of an opposing faction.

This game makes me want to throw up

[Infinity 324]

It's actually not an unreasonable possibility.

[Infinity 324]

Cult would probably start with 2 members, but having the third be converted would open up a few scum possibilities. Like grapes for example.

But I don't really want to have that factor in so bleh. I'll literally just lynch anyone and pray someone else gets the vig shot, and try to figure shit out d3.

[Infinity 324]

Dunn/zach only scum?? lol

[Infinity 324]

Widely townread players:

-Dunn
-Lucian
-frog
-impo
-scout

Do we just look for scum here?

[Infinity 324]

Scout isn't really a possible suspect, I just listed him for completion

But given the circumstances of this game it's a possibility

[Infinity 324]

Meaning scout is probably still town but not conftown.

[Infinity 324]

Leon gave scout a gift, that in itself doesn't make scout town.

The way he executed the claim looks quite town, yes. But a lot of propel have done a lot of town things in this game.

Also if I'm conftown why are we having this conversation -_-

[Infinity 324]

I basically had to re-evaluate everyone since I had so many townreads. That's fine, it happens sometimes.

But now even after that re-evaluation I still have too many townreads. Something is wrong here.

Our best chance of winning is getting lucky with PRs. Lol

PEdit: well zach was saying I pinged him and shit

[Infinity 324]

He fakeclained as scum and realized it was a bad idea? Idk

It's true that's unlikely, lol

[Infinity 324]

None of them are dubious since all of them are dubious. Bleh

[Infinity 324]

I am pretty tired...

PEdit: town loses lots of games cause of writing people off as town *shrug*

[Infinity 324]

I'll vote for almost anyone

[Infinity 324]

Yes, though he's on the town-er side of my reads

[Infinity 324]

Explain to me how scum!suzune would expect people to townread her based off that.

I think you're townreading un-indicative personality quirks and pleasant wording while ignoring mindless blatantly opportunistic scum motivated pushes that suz more than likely foresaw gaining more steam than it did based on my opaqueness today.

Scum are perfectly capable of living with their head in the clouds.

If by "living with her head I the clouds" you mean making no effort to not get lynched, then I kind of disagree. Like scum is not going to sit there and dawdle around while they're headed for the gallows. That's not a thing.

Which opportunistic pushes are you talking about?

[Infinity 324]

why am I arguing that someone is town in this game

I'm fine with voting suzune

[Infinity 324]

Which opportunistic pushes are you talking about?

I feel like the push on jae is p bad at this point you agree?

I can see what you're saying here.

VOTE: suzune in case I'm not here at deadline

[Infinity 324]

What if grapes is actually scum

@frog Do you have a meta read on grapes?

[Infinity 324]

If seraphim is scum and gets the vig I'm going to be pissed

I agree with what other people said about the struggling in this game being genuine though.

[Infinity 324]

If I get the vig I will tear my hair out

Then you will probably be surprised about who I shoot

[Infinity 324]

People I would certainly not shoot:

-dunn
-zach
-scout

Everyone else, idk

[Infinity 324]

Whats up people, catching up

[Infinity 324]

@jae - you're scum who gets gifted a cop, or something, but you need to claim you got something, cop is easy

you know what town does when they get a guilty?

they push for that motherfuckers lynch. that's what i was getting at when i quoted his post to start the day

his infinity vote was was quiet

Honestly it was such an obvious guilty crumb I was trying to think about whether it was possible for how to get a guilty on me.

Massclaim now?

@SAYER are we allowed to know the details of dunnstral's role?

Pretty sure it's grapes/zach but I'm still really not sure what a third scum would be if there was one.

[Infinity 324]

I didn't get culted btw, so dunn probably culted scum.

[Infinity 324]

Are you fucking kidding me

That actually makes sense unfortunately

[Infinity 324]

So me and scout must confscum then right?

The question is why the hell dunn would claim PT checker on zach if zach didn't have a PT.

It's possible zach is just mafia but eh

@zach What happens when we try to lynch you?

[Infinity 324]

Ok SK-zach outing himself is suicide without trying to make a leashing deal

[Infinity 324]

Actually why would that ever make sense there was only 1 kill twice in a row

[Infinity 324]

Got it, I was being dumb yesterday morning

We lynch zach today

[Infinity 324]

Oh if you missed it zach claimed 1-shot lynchproof sk

[Infinity 324]

Actually why would that ever make sense there was only 1 kill twice in a row

Gotta do some triple ISOs at some point.

Hopefully zach/grapes are the only scum but it's very unlikely.

@everyone Who do you think was most likely for dunn to try to recruit n1, other than grapes/zach?

[Infinity 324]

Actually he probably just recruited either zach or grapes so that doesn't help us lol

[Infinity 324]

Given his 'PT checker' claim, he almost certainly tried to recruit Zach Night 1.

Yeah I guess he was trying to help out town cause of how bad we were doing lol

It was actually brilliant, if a cult ever flipped that would help his claim.

[Infinity 324]

@impo what if scum was targeted both nights, then you would know that and therefore be able to say whatever you want about the cult (you may have guessed the mechanics based on the flavor).

@SAYER Did the high priest recruits go back to being townies once dunnstral died?

[Infinity 324]

@impo what if scum was targeted both nights, then you would know that and therefore be able to say whatever you want about the cult (you may have guessed the mechanics based on the flavor).

This assumes that scum would know if somebody attempted to recruit them (and would therefore know that a third party existed), and neither grapes nor Zach, from what I remember of their earlier posting, demonstrated that kind of insider knowledge. That could be worth an ISO dive, but I find it very unlikely

True, but grapes/zach wouldn't necessarily demonstrate that knowledge. I don't really see a reason for them not to claim the same thing though.

[Infinity 324]

They would demonstrate the knowledge in the act of claiming the same thing, imo. Zach keeping his claim up was a sign of not being prepared and/or not knowing whether he was really culted. If he had left it, he'd have much higher chances of living through today.

Now that I see frog's quote containing the original message about cult, I see it's more believable that I could have guessed that about cult, but I think it would still be highly unlikely for me to think of claiming that quickly after the realization for a multitude of reasons.

Fair enough.

@zach You overlooked the fact that claiming SK as SK would be blatantly playing against your wincon since town would just lynch you twice and Mafia would just shoot you.

[Infinity 324]

Not to mention the only 1 kill both nights thing

[Infinity 324]

You put in a valiant effort.

[Infinity 324]

Intent to hammer

Anything else we need to discuss today?

[Infinity 324]

We can take a serious look at scout again tomorrow if he's somehow still alive. Otherwise we lynch zach and then grapes, and figure out the third tomorrow/the day after.

[Infinity 324]

VOTE: grapes

Will ISO people with zach + grapes later.

[Infinity 324]

Don't let grapes self-hammer so we have time to figure out the last scum, if there is one, and so s_s can catch up.

[Infinity 324]

Explain that last point?

I've seen s_s's town game and his scum game, so hopefully I'll be able to read him here.

Off the top of my head, I remember sera voting zach all d1, but grapes had a weird read progression on sera. Grapes townread frog and...I don't remember the other interactions with frog/zach/grapes.

Any other PRs should claim now.

[Infinity 324]

@Zachstralkita: this is an unusually active game so far and a lot has already occurred, do you have anything more solid than just 'vibes'?

@JaeReed: would you like to do something with your vote on grapes?

First real thing to note with the grapes/frog/zach ISO, but this looks good for frog.

[Infinity 324]

Sure, I can have a go. I'm finding it a little hard to get a handle on grapes, hence the 'slight', but I am considering whether that is something he is making difficult deliberately. If I'm reading post #71 right then grapes is proposing not releasing some of his townreads, and there's also something off about post #320, in which he makes out a mislynch to be attractive. The problem is that this might not only not be alignment indicative, but from grapes' posting so far those posts may not even be serious. I have no issue with the Suzune vote, and the misreading on the part of those who have a stronger read on grapes isn't convincing me either.

This is fair I think?

Like it's wrong but I can see where you're coming from.

I don't want my stronger townreads being sucked into the void so I thought keeping them pocketed day 1 and focusing on scumhunting exclusively would be a better way to go about things. I guess I can kinda see the scum motive in that? But thinking about it why would I handicap myself of one of my favorite scum tools? Townreading peeps/creating allies and whatnot. At any rate, if do think a townblock will be the best way to go about the teams thing, especially if there's a neighborhood aspect (which is kinda what im guessing but who knows it's a bastard game) We get the most mileage out of something like that in a scum free environment. So that's not even a thing I'm gonna consciously worry about anymore.

I'm always serious.

And a mislynch obviously wouldn't be attractive I just thought that would be another upside in the event of a mislynch if we keep scum in the dark about who the obvtowns are but meh.

This feels like S-->T more than S-->S

[Infinity 324]

but green has Impoetic.................................... and frog........

Exactly.

The other 4 is like my meh/scumpile.

Hard to ignore this, but idk if it means anything.

[Infinity 324]

What is everyone up grapes' ass for?

No flex but dude is super town.

If you replaced grapes' name with frog I would still disagree but actually understand where you're coming from.

Again, hard to ignore but hard to make meaning of.

I feel like it points to frog!town

[Infinity 324]

With the first pint it's actually the thing about grapes that was more significant. It's a way of subtly encouraging pressure on him for probably no distance credit. Also don't scum have daytalk?

The second point seems very aimed to persuade to me.

About the last thing, I don't really know what you're saying. I definitely can't see a lot of interaction with grapes/zach/frog.

The only reason it pointed to frog!town was the weird distinction he'd be making towards his scumbuddies but it's not much of a thing anyway.

@frog Did undertake maf affect your read on grapes this game?

Also I'm sure there's 2 scum left cause otherwise scout would be still alive

[Infinity 324]

-They were not pushing on frog. Notice zach says he townreads frog and grapes did too at another point

-Grapes is now confscum cause scout guiltied her, her only option imo would be to try to lynch scout. Maybe she thought she could use the PRs but eh

(Is grapes a she?)

[Infinity 324]

Grapes has a PR, who knows. But you're right.

[Infinity 324]

I don't want people to count out impo...might be just gut but it runs me the wrong way that she's the one who pointed out how she's confirmed. Let's keep thinking about that (or at least I will).

Sera being scum would fit the "easy lynches only go through on town" thing that is sometimes true.

[Infinity 324]

I mean, he would've been an easy mislynch...and leon and suzune were easy lynches at the time that both went through

[Infinity 324]

Oh I didn't remember that stuff frog. Yeah that was my assessment of the meta too from my skim.

[Infinity 324]

Seraphim was an "easy lynch" tho. It just didn't happen to get lynched.

The question is why scum didn't push it through

[Infinity 324]

1 2 3 4 5 6 possibilties. Of those, frog and impo are the heaviest townreads of mine who are on this team. Suzune is the honorable mention townread, whatever was dubious before about her in my head has dissipated a lot, very much due to her Lucian/Infinity interactions and what she said relating to the setup. The latter, actually, puts Suzune higher than Impo in the townreads, in part because Impo hasn't really posted today for me to work with on Day 2. If someone wants me to explain my frog read, just ask. And you will because there's a lot of people who SR frog if I'm not mistaken, but I'm just not going to put in that effort until prompted.

Again, points to frog!town. Scum would be eager to defend their buddies, otherwise having them as town doesn't do much.

[Infinity 324]

What do you make of JaeReed's most recent posts (specifically, those of the last two pages)?

I'm not sure how to respond to this... Most of those posts don't even swing him either way, really.

Well actually the " One of Dunn/Zach is scum " thing is blatantly opportunistic. If he can't get away with killing one of us, he'll just go for the other.

The last couple of pages is the scummiest I have found JaeReed all game, so if it is null to you then I don't think I will be supporting a JaeReed lynch anytime soon

I mean... how I feel about it shouldn't factor in on your opinion... but whatever.

Also the main thing I mentioned was pretty much what makes him scummy, but okay.

I was pretty kooky last night so I probably didn't process everything.

I mean... how I feel about it shouldn't factor in on your opinion... but whatever.

Also the main thing I mentioned was pretty much what makes him scummy, but okay.

I was pretty kooky last night so I probably didn't process everything.

You're pushing for a JaeReed lynch, right? You want me to come around and vote JaeReed. I found some content I didn't like so I thought I would take it to you to see if you could integrate it into a broader point that I might have missed earlier in the game. You didn't (or couldn't), and if we are that divided then I think it unlikely I would be swayed by your opinion in this case

Those are my current ruminations. Thoughts?

From your last few posts I get the impression that you still think Suzune is, on balance, pretty scummy. Do you not think the part of your post in green could be faked by scum!Suzune?

I mean... how I feel about it shouldn't factor in on your opinion... but whatever.

Also the main thing I mentioned was pretty much what makes him scummy, but okay.

I was pretty kooky last night so I probably didn't process everything.

You're pushing for a JaeReed lynch, right? You want me to come around and vote JaeReed. I found some content I didn't like so I thought I would take it to you to see if you could integrate it into a broader point that I might have missed earlier in the game. You didn't (or couldn't), and if we are that divided then I think it unlikely I would be swayed by your opinion in this case

You said those last few posts were the scummiest you've found him all game, that's a tad bit more than " didn't like." That's pretty worthy of a vote by itself.

Are you discussing with me or trying to give off the appearance that you're discussing with me?

You said those last few posts were the scummiest you've found him all game, that's a tad bit more than " didn't like." That's pretty worthy of a vote by itself.

Are you discussing with me or trying to give off the appearance that you're discussing with me?

Not quite, 'scummiest I have found [him]' does not necessarily mean that he is likely to be scum, since it is relative; it is of course possible, which is why I thought I would pick your brain.
Aren't we discussing right now? I thought this would be a conversation you would be interested in, and the alternatives you are giving me

are really just not that great

Again, this is super interesting but probably means nothing. Leans toward scummy for frog, but could certainly be a mutual-townread-interaction (even though T/S)

[Infinity 324]

Smart, why does everything you write seem to be trying to convince? It's almost hard to believe that you come into the game legitimately thinking frog, who has been a common townread for quite a while, is obvious scum and every point in his favor is invalid. Confbias only goes so far.

And you didn't even consider that impo could be scum! Did you even read the post where she declared herself conftown?

[Infinity 324]

Like you didn't even read the game and already started to try to convince me frog was scum. Seriously.

[Infinity 324]

Let me phrase it a different way. I tend to see you as a pretty unbiased player. This game, you've displayed more confirmation bias than I would expect from the average townie. Seriously, you didn't agree with a single point I made wrt the associations to frog?

(^^ look at me, trying to convince you that you're scum)

[Infinity 324]

But why is it that you disagree with every point I make indicating frog is town and claim to think he's obviously scum and there's all this evidence no one notices for the whole game?

That

is confirmation bias.

[Infinity 324]

But why is it that you disagree with every point I make indicating frog is town and claim to think he's obviously scum and there's all this evidence no one notices for the whole game?

That

is confirmation bias.

I think we're both biased.

I'm refusing to accept any evidence that frog is town, because I know that he isn't. It's not wrong to call that bias, although I am confirming what I already

know

rather than what I already believe.

You are also biased; you said yourself that frog was widely townread before Zach and grapes were discovered to be scum. So when you reread him after those alignments were known, you wanted to support the conclusion that he's town. So really, we're both biased in opposite directions. Except my bias is more valid than yours.

By the way, I do believe that there is all this evidence that no one noticed for the whole game, and the simple reason for this is that that evidence is based on Zach and grapes being scum, a fact which only recently came to light.

I don't think I went into my research particularly biased; I townread both frog and seraphim since d2 really.

What skeeves me out about your bias is that it's much stronger than I would expect from town!you.

[Infinity 324]

I still need to read those walls. Ugh

[Infinity 324]

Sure, a link would be nice

[Infinity 324]

Hmmmm

We lynch town --> shoot grapes

We lynch scum --> we lynch grapes tomorrow

I think we lynch between smart and frog today. Should be an auto win.

[Infinity 324]

Yeah we're 4:2 now. So whether we lynch town or scum it goes to 2:1 with confirmed scum tomorrow.

Sorry grapes.

Have to make sure it's not impo though because if it is and she wins I'll flip a shit.

[Infinity 324]

VOTE: smart

I'm glad we didn't actually have to figure out this game. My final guess is smart for scum.

[Infinity 324]

Ehh

It had a lot to do with your attitude at the beginning, I just wanted to see if the same sort of thing continued. And meta didn't really inform all of it.

[Infinity 324]

That'd be funny if grapes is trolling and the last scum though.

[Infinity 324]

"Frog is obvious scum and all of your reasons to townread him are wrong"

[Infinity 324]

Tbh I expected more of "yes this looks good for frog, but I know he has to be scum, so :/"

[Infinity 324]

Also if you're trolling here can you stop pls <3

[Infinity 324]

Fair enough. In that case, we needed you earlier on in the game when everyone townread frog

[Infinity 324]

What if grapes is BP :/

Is there anything grapes could have to let him win lylo?

[Infinity 324]

I mean he could have a vig but...again?

Ugh mod WIFOM

[Infinity 324]

Bulletproof would be a reason.

[Infinity 324]

I think he should shoot frog. I know this is modwifom, but I don't think the mod would give 2 vig shots in a row as gifts, and vig is the only normal (and probably the only reasonable) role that would let grapes win here. Plus he probably would've used it if he had it.

[Infinity 324]

Hey frog are you scum?

[Infinity 324]

Lol

I just don't want to wait for the game to end for spoilers

[Infinity 324]

He already made an argument for why he wouldn't troll

I'm wondering if someone is holding out hoping we might suddenly switch to impoetic

Otherwise it is impoetic.

*shiver*

[Infinity 324]

Kill frog

[Infinity 324]

I'm saying that frog's paranoia about impoetic looks like a fake last-ditch effort.

[Infinity 324]

How about the cult thing

[Infinity 324]

And you're just saying this now because?

[Infinity 324]

Mrmm ok

How would you estimate the probabilities atm

[Infinity 324]

Impo/smart being scum