Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Gemelli]

Does it bother you that the "evidence" towards me being with Dybeck depends entirely on wifom interpretation, and could mean entirely the opposite of the way Vollkan is interpreting it? (pretty likely, because I'm town). I'm starting to think you're our third scum. I've already presented evidence as to Korlash having ties to Dy, though nothing compared to what Vollkan did. Second, I'm pretty sure we're in LYLO here *at the very least, potentially). Are you really going to trust the game deciding lynch on the fact that theres nothing better then a weak connection case?

Appealing to emotion by raising the fear of a possible (improbable) LYLO, and by making a veiled threat to go after me as scum, does nothing to bolster your argument, nor does it affect my current perception of you. Let's move on.

Most of my suspicion against you boils down to the single key point we've been talking about since D3 started: Dybeck treated you differently than every single player remaining in the game. I think this is notable.

So far, what I've seen in response is conjecture on the other side of the fence: he COULD have been doing this as an elaborate plot to frame you. This is true. But it's just as plausible to me that he simply failed to bus you until he had already committed to locking in on Originality, at which point it was too late for him to switch gears without dooming himself.

I don't think this is an ironclad argument either way. What I'm saying is that it does create a serious level of suspicion in my mind that you may be mafia. While I agree that Korlash's behavior does inspire suspicion, I would not go so far as to say that the case against him is markedly stronger than the case against you. Both could currently be described as "weak connection cases" at this point. Fortunately, we're not under a deadline and there's plenty of time left to talk turkey.

One point that we haven't really discussed: you took the time to analyze and respond to Vollkan's consolidated case against Dybeck at some length. But you needed to be prompted to look at shaft.ed's summary case against Oman, and did not look at the additional points I raised vs. Oman at all (though you said you were going to). Again, one interpretation of this would be that you had a vested interest in poking holes in the Dybeck case, but didn't see any reason to interfere with the case against Oman. What is your side of the story there?

A few side points for other players ...

Korlash:

In response to post 1453, I don't think anyone is suggesting that the mafia has both a Godfather AND a roleblocker. I was simply pointing out that there is a possibility that one of those roles exists on the mafia side.

All:

I agree with Originality's point that shaft.ed had no clear reason to investigate Lucienne N1, based on either his D1 posts or the town consensus on the most suspicious players. I also agree that his behavior suggests that if he got an innocent result on anyone, it was Vollkan. But applying the same logic, why would he have investigated Vollkan's predecessor? Can we deduce anything about who shaft.ed might have investigated based on his D1 posts? (I do think it's safe to assume that whoever he investigated, the result came back innocent.)

[Korlash]

Korlash: In response to post 1453, I don't think anyone is suggesting that the mafia has both a Godfather AND a roleblocker. I was simply pointing out that there is a possibility that one of those roles exists on the mafia side.

Couldn't they have both through? is seems like a likely possibility if we also have a doc....

Also is there some other type of power role they could have?

[Gemelli]

Korlash: In response to post 1453, I don't think anyone is suggesting that the mafia has both a Godfather AND a roleblocker. I was simply pointing out that there is a possibility that one of those roles exists on the mafia side.

Couldn't they have both through? is seems like a likely possibility if we also have a doc....

Huh? I was responding to the post where you explained that it was unlikely that both those roles were in play:

Anyways from what I keep hearing is people are linking Godfather to Lucienne and some sort of RB mafia thing... In this situation I find it impossible for Lucienne to be the Godfather and for Orig to have been RBed... See, The tracker(alyG) went after Lucienne and got no result. So that means she did not RB, or do any night killings. So either A) We have two other mafia or B) The other Mafia did both the RB and the Killing, which I believe is impossible. Or is it? Not sure as I have literally never heard of a mafia RB before...

I read that as you saying that you didn't think it likely that we had both a Godfather and a mafia RB unless there are three mafia remaining in the game. What's made you change your mind?

All I was saying in my original post is that if there IS a Godfather, the cop would have gotten an innocent result from investigating that player. The Godfather typically sends the mafia's night choices to the mod -- which mafioso will make the kill, and which player they are killing -- but sending in a choice to the mod wouldn't trigger the Tracker ability, would it?

As far as other scum power role possibilities are concerned, the Wiki has a small list of common examples that you can review.

[Korlash]

I read that as you saying that you didn't think it likely that we had both a Godfather and a mafia RB unless there are three mafia remaining in the game. What's made you change your mind?

No I said it was unlikely that Lucienne was the Godfather, and that the RB had blocked Orig. cause that would indicate three mafia and that would suck! But there is still other possibilities, the RB blocked someone else, Lucienne is not the Godfather, etc...

All I was saying in my original post is that if there IS a Godfather, the cop would have gotten an innocent result from investigating that player. The Godfather typically sends the mafia's night choices to the mod -- which mafioso will make the kill, and which player they are killing -- but sending in a choice to the mod wouldn't trigger the Tracker ability, would it?

Hmmm... Ok... what about this then... Vollkan says Lucienne hasn't posted in X amount of time... So how can she be the Godfather? Question I would like Vollkan to explain seeing as how he "Knows" Lucienne hasn't been around for so long... seems like something worth investigating.

Also, no I doubt sending in the thing to the mod would trigger it, however if the Godfather says he/she will do the killing/RB/whatever they do then I think that WOULD trigger it...

and yeah I read that, but do you guys think any of those are likely? Or more likely/just as likely as the RB?

[Gemelli]

Hmmm... Ok... what about this then... Vollkan says Lucienne hasn't posted in X amount of time... So how can she be the Godfather? Question I would like Vollkan to explain seeing as how he "Knows" Lucienne hasn't been around for so long... seems like something worth investigating.

I think you're stretching here.

Vollkan "knows" that Lucienne hasn't posted in X amount of time because he can see the last time she posted in the thread, just like the rest of us can.

FWIW, I have seen Lucienne reading a thread in the Little Italy forum (I assume this one) at least once since her last post, so she hasn't dropped entirely off the face of the Earth. I'm not willing to discount her as a suspect just because she's playing with a low profile at the moment. That being said, she's still at the #3 position on my list unless Originality can tell me something about her that makes the case against her stronger than it currently looks.

As far as the likelihood of any of those roles existing, I don't think we have enough information to decide one way or the other. I'd rather not spend too much time thinking about all the possible permutations that could be in play, as I think that leads us to paralysis by analysis.

[Korlash]

Ehhh I figured as much.. it just seemed like you all ran with the idea of a RB pretty quickly and didn't mention anything else... I thought it was a little weird...

How rare/common are the mafia power roles in these mini games?

[vollkan]

Godfather is very common, RB less so, and any other possibility even more less so.

Hmmm... Ok... what about this then... Vollkan says Lucienne hasn't posted in X amount of time... So how can she be the Godfather? Question I would like Vollkan to explain seeing as how he "Knows" Lucienne hasn't been around for so long... seems like something worth investigating.

a) Looking at her last post
b) Profile --> Find all posts by Lucienne

You're reaching.

[Streeflo]

I would try to look for a replacement for Lucienne, but I doubt I will find any at 60 pages Day 3

Let's just hope she returns.

[Korlash]

Fair enough...

OH OH I'll replace! i'll do it! Pick me pick me!!!!

(Anyone but adel.. anyone but adel... *crosses fingers*)

Also I hear the replacement thing is backed up anyways... so I don;t think it's gunna happen...

We should just lynch her and be done with it! =P Joke.. joking... Gem put the noose down.. that's a good boy...

[Gemelli]

OK, this is just getting downright disingenuous:

I wasn't so worried about the mafia, although I am always in fear of them having a power role in these big games, like tracker or RB or something.

man two games in a row I hear Mafia RB.. weird... I need to look up these roles I think...

Also is there some other type of power role they could have?

In post 1167, you bring up the possibility of Mafia power roles, including tracker and RB.

In 1453, you suddenly act like the idea of a Mafia RB is new and foreign to you. In 1476 you lose a little more of the knowledge that you had back in post 1167, and now need help to think of other possibilities for mafia power roles.

Playing innocent, are we?

it just seemed like you all ran with the idea of a RB pretty quickly and didn't mention anything else... I thought it was a little weird...

In post 1480, you say that the rest of us "all ran with the idea of a RB pretty quickly" despite the fact that you're the player who has brought up the possibility more than anyone else in the game: 1168, 1452, 1479, and 1481. Since you've entered the game, the only other people posting about the possibility (Vollkan once, originality once, and me once) are doing so in response to a post from you.

This is all starting to look awfully contrived from where I'm sitting.

[vollkan]

Korlash, would you mind posting a scumdar with at least one sentence per person?

[Korlash]

no... well more to your question's point yes, I have yet to finish my reread.. fell asleep yesterday.. that was odd.. today I was working on my managetorial stuff. Tomorrow I should be getting off early so I SHOULD be able to finish.

Besides last time I did it you took it way out of proportion. So no, I refuse your question until I finish actually making the list. Fair to you?

On to gem's thingy...

And no offense man... but:

Post 1443:

Something that occurred to me this morning as I struggled out of bed: we've identified three possible/likely power roles for town in this game (Tracker, Cop, Vig), as well as any other power roles that have yet to be revealed. If we only have three scum, is this a bit overpowered in favor of the town? Does this increase the possibility that there is a Godfather among the scum, or possibly even a scum power role?

You can say I am trying to look innocent all you want.. you brought it up... not me...

[Elias_the_thief]

Does it bother you that the "evidence" towards me being with Dybeck depends entirely on wifom interpretation, and could mean entirely the opposite of the way Vollkan is interpreting it? (pretty likely, because I'm town). I'm starting to think you're our third scum. I've already presented evidence as to Korlash having ties to Dy, though nothing compared to what Vollkan did. Second, I'm pretty sure we're in LYLO here *at the very least, potentially). Are you really going to trust the game deciding lynch on the fact that theres nothing better then a weak connection case?

Appealing to emotion by raising the fear of a possible (improbable) LYLO, and by making a veiled threat to go after me as scum, does nothing to bolster your argument, nor does it affect my current perception of you. Let's move on.

Um....Are you dense or something? How in hell is bringing up the possibility of LYLO an appeal to emotion in any sense of the word? The purpose in mentioning it is that we have to be careful in our lynches because of our precarious position. This has nothing to do with emotion. At all. The way in which it pretains to my defense is that in the case that we are that close to LYLO, the current case against me is not strong enough to take that big a risk. This is purely an assessment of the amount of danger town is in right now. Also, my post was in no way "veiled threat". It was much more an indication that you are my number 2 in terms of who is likely to be scum. Honestly, are you just lying to make me look bad now or what?

Most of my suspicion against you boils down to the single key point we've been talking about since D3 started: Dybeck treated you differently than every single player remaining in the game. I think this is notable.

So far, what I've seen in response is conjecture on the other side of the fence: he COULD have been doing this as an elaborate plot to frame you. This is true. But it's just as plausible to me that he simply failed to bus you until he had already committed to locking in on Originality, at which point it was too late for him to switch gears without dooming himself.

I don't think this is an ironclad argument either way. What I'm saying is that it does create a serious level of suspicion in my mind that you may be mafia.

Up to here I agree with you, however, as my above statement indicated, this little piece of evidence should not be enough to lynch off of in this stage of the game. Now, here comes the part where I disagree with you (well, not the first part, but whatever).

While I agree that Korlash's behavior does inspire suspicion, I would not go so far as to say that the case against him is markedly stronger than the case against you. Both could currently be described as "weak connection cases" at this point. Fortunately, we're not under a deadline and there's plenty of time left to talk turkey.

Um...what exactly is the case on me besides the connection point? Essentially nothing, as you have just pointed out, besides that connection point. However, the Korlash case, in addition to the "connection" dates back to the behavior of Oman, which was notably scummy, and his actions today in his inexplicable switches on his LoS. To say that the case on Korlash is only the connection case seems kind of makes it seem like youre overlooking a major something, and not accidentally either.

One point that we haven't really discussed: you took the time to analyze and respond to Vollkan's consolidated case against Dybeck at some length. But you needed to be prompted to look at shaft.ed's summary case against Oman, and did not look at the additional points I raised vs. Oman at all (though you said you were going to). Again, one interpretation of this would be that you had a vested interest in poking holes in the Dybeck case, but didn't see any reason to interfere with the case against Oman. What is your side of the story there?

Really, I don't know. If there's anything I can say I have in this game right now, its a reputation of not living up to my promises. If I'm in the the mood to post, I will. But if I'm not, and promise content, I probably won't get around to it. Thats as good as an excuse as I can give. But let me say this: were I scum, I imagine that the most likely partner you guys would turn to would be korlash (for obvious ties to Dybeck equivalent to what I had, as well as what could be seen as distancing with me about the content). Now, were we a big happy mafia family, why would I ignore a case on one and attack the other?

That being said, I will now add to the Korlash case:
does anyone think the way that Korlash came into the game seemed a little suspicious? His first real post in the game, 1087 I think (4th actual post if youre using the parser) he makes absolutely NO mention of any cases on Dybeck, but simply comes into the game with all guns firing at Vollkan. Am I the only one who is reads this as a big fat distraction? He makes mention of Orig also, a smaller issue, but ignores Dybeck all the way up until his 11th post, post 1125. Thats a damn long time. And even then, he only mentions him as a possibility of being Vollkans second scumbuddy. He continues to hole this opinion for some time, without ever really backing it up. In his 48th post, 1267, he lists Dybeck as only 45% chance of being scum, despite considering him an almost certain third member of the scumteam for some time. In post 1279, suddenly Dybeck is listed as his top suspect (with me alongside). Wait, I thought a second ago you just werent completely certain on his claim, and had him at 45%? Also, in 55, 1310, suddenly shafted is rated near last on his LoS, and several players below Dybeck on his LoS he lists stronger reasons for suspecting them. In his 59th, 1334, he finally votes Dybeck, for being unhelpful. Wow. Thats all for now, but does anyone else see a completely unexplained shift over to Dybeck being #1 as the town began to feel that way?

[Gemelli]

Um....Are you dense or something? How in hell is bringing up the possibility of LYLO an appeal to emotion in any sense of the word?

You're a debator, so I'm assuming you are familiar with this stuff. The fact that we may be in LYLO has no bearing on the argument of whether or not you are mafia. And thanks for the bit of ad hominem there, too.

The way in which it pretains to my defense is that in the case that we are that close to LYLO, the current case against me is not strong enough to take that big a risk. This is purely an assessment of the amount of danger town is in right now.

You're missing the point. If I felt that the case against you was strong enough, I would have voted for you already. Right now, I do not think the case against Korlash is all that strong either.

Also, my post was in no way "veiled threat". It was much more an indication that you are my number 2 in terms of who is likely to be scum. Honestly, are you just lying to make me look bad now or what?

OK, that's twice that you've mentioned me as a scum candidate now. And apparently I'm a liar for viewing that as a threat. Nice. Well, since you've brought it up, maybe you can explain your case against me? I mean, above and beyond the fact that I suspect you, obviously. Clearly you have reasons to find me suspicious; let's hear them.

Um...what exactly is the case on me besides the connection point? Essentially nothing, as you have just pointed out, besides that connection point.

We have:

(1) Dybeck's preferential treatment of you for the entire game, and
(2) Your different responses to the cases against Oman/Korlash and Dybeck

That's not "essentially nothing." We have exactly one scum player confirmed at this point. I believe that the best leads we can get should be drawn from that player's behavior towards others, and from others' behaviors towards him. Right now, the links between you and Dybeck are stronger than those between Oman/Korlash and Dybeck. Change my mind!

To say that the case on Korlash is only the connection case seems kind of makes it seem like youre overlooking a major something, and not accidentally either.

Another accusation. Are you implying that I'm aligned with Korlash, in spite of the fact that I was one of the people who presented the big D2 case against Oman and pushed most consistently for his lynch?

I'll say it again: I want to focus on people's ties to Dybeck first and foremost. Korlash's behavior is suspect, absolutely. But I find his ties to Dybeck to be more of a reach at this point than yours.

Really, I don't know. If there's anything I can say I have in this game right now, its a reputation of not living up to my promises. If I'm in the the mood to post, I will. But if I'm not, and promise content, I probably won't get around to it. Thats as good as an excuse as I can give. But let me say this: were I scum, I imagine that the most likely partner you guys would turn to would be korlash (for obvious ties to Dybeck equivalent to what I had, as well as what could be seen as distancing with me about the content). Now, were we a big happy mafia family, why would I ignore a case on one and attack the other?

Honestly, if you are confirmed as Mafia, I think it's just as likely (maybe more) that you and Dybeck are aligned with Lucienne, based purely on observed behaviors and the reasoning you've just provided.

does anyone think the way that Korlash came into the game seemed a little suspicious? His first real post in the game, 1087 I think (4th actual post if youre using the parser) he makes absolutely NO mention of any cases on Dybeck, but simply comes into the game with all guns firing at Vollkan. Am I the only one who is reads this as a big fat distraction? He makes mention of Orig also, a smaller issue, but ignores Dybeck all the way up until his 11th post, post 1125. Thats a damn long time. And even then, he only mentions him as a possibility of being Vollkans second scumbuddy. He continues to hole this opinion for some time, without ever really backing it up. In his 48th post, 1267, he lists Dybeck as only 45% chance of being scum, despite considering him an almost certain third member of the scumteam for some time. In post 1279, suddenly Dybeck is listed as his top suspect (with me alongside). Wait, I thought a second ago you just werent completely certain on his claim, and had him at 45%? Also, in 55, 1310, suddenly shafted is rated near last on his LoS, and several players below Dybeck on his LoS he lists stronger reasons for suspecting them. In his 59th, 1334, he finally votes Dybeck, for being unhelpful. Wow. Thats all for now, but does anyone else see a completely unexplained shift over to Dybeck being #1 as the town began to feel that way?

All good questions and good grounds for discussion. Korlash, how would you explain this?

[Gemelli]

You can say I am trying to look innocent all you want.. you brought it up... not me...

I raised the question of a possible mafia power role. You're the one who has been "running with" the idea of a roleblocker. And my main point is that you started the game talking about the possibility of a mafia RB or tracker, and later on acted like the concept of a mafia RB was new to you. That's what looks most fishy to me.

[Elias_the_thief]

Um....Are you dense or something? How in hell is bringing up the possibility of LYLO an appeal to emotion in any sense of the word?

You're a debator, so I'm assuming you are familiar with this stuff. The fact that we may be in LYLO has no bearing on the argument of whether or not you are mafia. And thanks for the bit of ad hominem there, too.

Um...no. This is not an appeal to emotion 1) because my words are not intended to instill fear and 2) I am not using this to support the claim that I am not mafia. Secondly, it is not an ad hominem, because I'm asking you. If I had said you were dense it would have been an ad hom. Further, I wasnt using it to discredit your argument.

The way in which it pretains to my defense is that in the case that we are that close to LYLO, the current case against me is not strong enough to take that big a risk. This is purely an assessment of the amount of danger town is in right now.

You're missing the point. If I felt that the case against you was strong enough, I would have voted for you already. Right now, I do not think the case against Korlash is all that strong either.

Alright, but thats the whole reason I presented our proximity to LYLO anyways, not at all to say I'm not mafia. Youre missing my point as well.

Also, my post was in no way "veiled threat". It was much more an indication that you are my number 2 in terms of who is likely to be scum. Honestly, are you just lying to make me look bad now or what?

OK, that's twice that you've mentioned me as a scum candidate now. And apparently I'm a liar for viewing that as a threat. Nice. Well, since you've brought it up, maybe you can explain your case against me? I mean, above and beyond the fact that I suspect you, obviously. Clearly you have reasons to find me suspicious; let's hear them.

You're a liar mainly because it was in no way veiled, and that stating you as my number two is not "threatening" you. You didnt say "I fell threatened" You said that it was a threat. There is a difference between feeling threatened and stating as a matter of fact that I threatened you. Had you said the former, I would not have had a problem. Anyways, my reasons are mainly process of elmination, based on who I think is NOT scum, but I will try to form a case later tonight.

Um...what exactly is the case on me besides the connection point? Essentially nothing, as you have just pointed out, besides that connection point.

We have:

(1) Dybeck's preferential treatment of you for the entire game, and
(2) Your different responses to the cases against Oman/Korlash and Dybeck

That's not "essentially nothing." We have exactly one scum player confirmed at this point. I believe that the best leads we can get should be drawn from that player's behavior towards others, and from others' behaviors towards him. Right now, the links between you and Dybeck are stronger than those between Oman/Korlash and Dybeck. Change my mind!

Um...right. I said essentially nothing besides the connection. You've just basically repeated the connection case. Also, I just presented some good points towards Korlashs links to Dybeck.

To say that the case on Korlash is only the connection case seems kind of makes it seem like youre overlooking a major something, and not accidentally either.

Another accusation. Are you implying that I'm aligned with Korlash, in spite of the fact that I was one of the people who presented the big D2 case against Oman and pushed most consistently for his lynch?

I'll say it again: I want to focus on people's ties to Dybeck first and foremost. Korlash's behavior is suspect, absolutely. But I find his ties to Dybeck to be more of a reach at this point than yours.

More of a reach? He ignored the issue for 11 posts during the rise of the Dybeck case!

Really, I don't know. If there's anything I can say I have in this game right now, its a reputation of not living up to my promises. If I'm in the the mood to post, I will. But if I'm not, and promise content, I probably won't get around to it. Thats as good as an excuse as I can give. But let me say this: were I scum, I imagine that the most likely partner you guys would turn to would be korlash (for obvious ties to Dybeck equivalent to what I had, as well as what could be seen as distancing with me about the content). Now, were we a big happy mafia family, why would I ignore a case on one and attack the other?

Honestly, if you are confirmed as Mafia, I think it's just as likely (maybe more) that you and Dybeck are aligned with Lucienne, based purely on observed behaviors and the reasoning you've just provided.

I don't understand how I'm connected to Lucienne, but its not worth getting into until tomorrow.

[Gemelli]

(1) We can split hairs all day on whether your posts are appeals to emotion and ad hominem. You posted that the case on you was not vote-worthy because we are in (or close to) LYLO. I viewed your post as being motivated by a desire to raise uncertainty about the case against you; you claim that your intent was simply to advocate caution. You claim that asking someone "are you dense" is not the same thing as telling someone "you are dense." (I'm trying to figure out how you came by that way of thinking. Are you syphillytic? Does mental illness run in your family? Were you dropped on your head as a child?) Ultimately, all I was trying to say is that I am not going to allow the specter of LYLO to influence my decision of who is the best lynch candidate today. Dead horse; needs no further beating.

(2) You said "I'm starting to think you're our third scum" when you were reacting to my suspicions of you. I called this a veiled threat because it looked very much to me like you were suggesting that you were going to start going after me because I was posting suspicions of you. If you're going to tell me that person A's perception of person B's actions are "lies" if they don't match up with that person B's intent, please make that explicit so that I can re-review your PBPA with that principle in mind.

(3) I agree that the points you brought up on Korlash are significant and need to be looked at. He is absolutely a primary suspect. But I described the Dybeck/OmLash relationship as "more of a reach" because Dybeck actively campaigned for Oman's and Korlash's lynch on both day 1 and day 2. In short, his behavior towards OmLash is similar to the behavior he exhibited towards Ryan on D1 (confirmed non-mafia) and originality on D2 (strongly suspected non-mafia).


In other news, I'll cut back on the hostile tone if you will. Deal?

[Elias_the_thief]

(2) You said "I'm starting to think you're our third scum" when you were reacting to my suspicions of you. I called this a veiled threat because it looked very much to me like you were suggesting that you were going to start going after me because I was posting suspicions of you. If you're going to tell me that person A's perception of person B's actions are "lies" if they don't match up with that person B's intent, please make that explicit so that I can re-review your PBPA with that principle in mind.

The emphasis is mainly on the "veiled" which has negative connotation. The point is that I was fully open about the fact that I suspected you as the third scum. But I'm perfectly willing to move on.

My main reason that I added that bit is because I consider Korlash to be the most likely scum. The fact that I feel that the case for him is a whole lot greater then the one on me leads me to suspect a connection as you continue to insist that the cases against me and Oman are comparable. And at the same time, you have failed to present any case against me besides things directly pretaining to the supposed "connection" to Dybeck.

[vollkan]

I've read the Gemelli/Elias debate and I have comments to make. Unlike the Elias/Korlash pissing match, this is relevant.

I have issues with both of you.

(1) We can split hairs all day on whether your posts are appeals to emotion and ad hominem. You posted that the case on you was not vote-worthy because we are in (or close to) LYLO. I viewed your post as being motivated by a desire to raise uncertainty about the case against you; you claim that your intent was simply to advocate caution. You claim that asking someone "are you dense" is not the same thing as telling someone "you are dense." (I'm trying to figure out how you came by that way of thinking. Are you syphillytic? Does mental illness run in your family? Were you dropped on your head as a child?) Ultimately, all I was trying to say is that I am not going to allow the specter of LYLO to influence my decision of who is the best lynch candidate today. Dead horse; needs no further beating.

I read over your debate on this point

Elias, I understand what you were saying, that in our situation we don't want to risk a lynch on weak connexions. Frankly, however, I fail to see how that concern is relevant at this stage. Your lynch was not impending, so why raise the prospect? At this stage (non-deadline and no wagon) it is blatant fear-mongering. I've done the same thing myself as scum, because it is an effective means of creating doubt.

Additionally, calling someone "dense" is not ad hom if you then proceed to logically deconstruct your opponent's position. Here, however, Elias's rebuttal was (uncharacteristically) flawed.

We have:

(1) Dybeck's preferential treatment of you for the entire game, and
(2) Your different responses to the cases against Oman/Korlash and Dybeck

That's not "essentially nothing." We have exactly one scum player confirmed at this point. I believe that the best leads we can get should be drawn from that player's behavior towards others, and from others' behaviors towards him. Right now, the links between you and Dybeck are stronger than those between Oman/Korlash and Dybeck. Change my mind!

Gemelli, you keep talking about "preferential treatment". Please define and give examples.

That being said, I will now add to the Korlash case:
does anyone think the way that Korlash came into the game seemed a little suspicious? His first real post in the game, 1087 I think (4th actual post if youre using the parser) he makes absolutely NO mention of any cases on Dybeck, but simply comes into the game with all guns firing at Vollkan. Am I the only one who is reads this as a big fat distraction? He makes mention of Orig also, a smaller issue, but ignores Dybeck all the way up until his 11th post, post 1125. Thats a damn long time. And even then, he only mentions him as a possibility of being Vollkans second scumbuddy. He continues to hole this opinion for some time, without ever really backing it up. In his 48th post, 1267, he lists Dybeck as only 45% chance of being scum, despite considering him an almost certain third member of the scumteam for some time. In post 1279, suddenly Dybeck is listed as his top suspect (with me alongside). Wait, I thought a second ago you just werent completely certain on his claim, and had him at 45%? Also, in 55, 1310, suddenly shafted is rated near last on his LoS, and several players below Dybeck on his LoS he lists stronger reasons for suspecting them. In his 59th, 1334, he finally votes Dybeck, for being unhelpful. Wow. Thats all for now, but does anyone else see a completely unexplained shift over to Dybeck being #1 as the town began to feel that way?

This is all valid and has my endorsement.

For now, I am eagerly awaiting Korlash's next post, containing

scumdar and responses to the accusations levelled against him

(bolded because people avoiding things pisses me off).

[Elias_the_thief]

I've read the Gemelli/Elias debate and I have comments to make. Unlike the Elias/Korlash pissing match, this is relevant.

I have issues with both of you.

(1) We can split hairs all day on whether your posts are appeals to emotion and ad hominem. You posted that the case on you was not vote-worthy because we are in (or close to) LYLO. I viewed your post as being motivated by a desire to raise uncertainty about the case against you; you claim that your intent was simply to advocate caution. You claim that asking someone "are you dense" is not the same thing as telling someone "you are dense." (I'm trying to figure out how you came by that way of thinking. Are you syphillytic? Does mental illness run in your family? Were you dropped on your head as a child?) Ultimately, all I was trying to say is that I am not going to allow the specter of LYLO to influence my decision of who is the best lynch candidate today. Dead horse; needs no further beating.

I read over your debate on this point

Elias, I understand what you were saying, that in our situation we don't want to risk a lynch on weak connexions. Frankly, however, I fail to see how that concern is relevant at this stage. Your lynch was not impending, so why raise the prospect? At this stage (non-deadline and no wagon) it is blatant fear-mongering. I've done the same thing myself as scum, because it is an effective means of creating doubt.

First, I think it's clear that we are very different in terms of playstyle. I personally have not done this as scum and I'm not doing it as scum now. Anyways, if you go back and read his post, he sounded like he had pretty much made up his mind.

What I think I need to see is one of the following:

(1) A strong argument that provides evidence of why the Elias/Dybeck pair does NOT make sense, or
(2) A strong argument for why another player is a MORE LIKELY candidate than Elias for being scum with Dybeck.

I'd also like to hear from AlyG and Lucienne, obviously. Even a quick scumdar rundown from them would help quite a bit.

To me, it seemed that him voting me based on this alone seemed pretty inevitable. I simply brought it up to point out that it shouldnt take evidence against my case from preventing a vote from him. Maybe I overreacted, but not by much, I think.

Additionally, calling someone "dense" is not ad hom if you then proceed to logically deconstruct your opponent's position. Here, however, Elias's rebuttal was (uncharacteristically) flawed.

It's flawed how exactly? I believe bringing up what I did was very justified, and I stand by that it was not an appeal to emotion.

We have:

(1) Dybeck's preferential treatment of you for the entire game, and
(2) Your different responses to the cases against Oman/Korlash and Dybeck

That's not "essentially nothing." We have exactly one scum player confirmed at this point. I believe that the best leads we can get should be drawn from that player's behavior towards others, and from others' behaviors towards him. Right now, the links between you and Dybeck are stronger than those between Oman/Korlash and Dybeck. Change my mind!

Gemelli, you keep talking about "preferential treatment". Please define and give examples.

I second this request.

That being said, I will now add to the Korlash case:
does anyone think the way that Korlash came into the game seemed a little suspicious? His first real post in the game, 1087 I think (4th actual post if youre using the parser) he makes absolutely NO mention of any cases on Dybeck, but simply comes into the game with all guns firing at Vollkan. Am I the only one who is reads this as a big fat distraction? He makes mention of Orig also, a smaller issue, but ignores Dybeck all the way up until his 11th post, post 1125. Thats a damn long time. And even then, he only mentions him as a possibility of being Vollkans second scumbuddy. He continues to hole this opinion for some time, without ever really backing it up. In his 48th post, 1267, he lists Dybeck as only 45% chance of being scum, despite considering him an almost certain third member of the scumteam for some time. In post 1279, suddenly Dybeck is listed as his top suspect (with me alongside). Wait, I thought a second ago you just werent completely certain on his claim, and had him at 45%? Also, in 55, 1310, suddenly shafted is rated near last on his LoS, and several players below Dybeck on his LoS he lists stronger reasons for suspecting them. In his 59th, 1334, he finally votes Dybeck, for being unhelpful. Wow. Thats all for now, but does anyone else see a completely unexplained shift over to Dybeck being #1 as the town began to feel that way?

This is all valid and has my endorsement.

For now, I am eagerly awaiting Korlash's next post, containing

scumdar and responses to the accusations levelled against him

(bolded because people avoiding things pisses me off).

You and us all.

[vollkan]

Elias, I understand what you were saying, that in our situation we don't want to risk a lynch on weak connexions. Frankly, however, I fail to see how that concern is relevant at this stage. Your lynch was not impending, so why raise the prospect? At this stage (non-deadline and no wagon) it is blatant fear-mongering. I've done the same thing myself as scum, because it is an effective means of creating doubt.

First, I think it's clear that we are very different in terms of playstyle. I personally have not done this as scum and I'm not doing it as scum now. Anyways, if you go back and read his post, he sounded like he had pretty much made up his mind.

Why did you raise the LYLO issue then? Also, what do you mean by "he had pretty much made up his mind"?

It's flawed how exactly? I believe bringing up what I did was very justified, and I stand by that it was not an appeal to emotion.

Then explain what the point of it was.

[Gemelli]

Gemelli, you keep talking about "preferential treatment". Please define and give examples.

I was talking about two things:

(1) He reacted differently to the case you brought up against Dybeck (commented on it at length in 1021, said he was undecided on it in 1029, said it wasn't too convincing in 1035) and the cases against Oman that shaft.ed brought up in 1005 (said he would comment on it in 1037, never did) or that I brought up in 1055 (let pass with no comment at all).

(2) His overall behavioral trend towards the two players is different:

Day 1

Elias posted his only non-random vote of the game for Oman in post 49, and attacked him in posts 52, 58, 59, and 243. He did not acknowledge Dybeck at all.

Day 2

Elias made four posts in which he was noncommittal towards the Dybeck case (1021, 1025, 1029, and 1255), and three posts critical of Dybeck (1272, 1274, and 1356) after the town consensus was already strong. On that same day, Elias posted one noncommittal post on Korlash (1156), and six critical/confrontational posts against him (1225, 1227, 1277, 1295, 1297, and 1307).

Obviously the term "preferential treatment" is subjective, but I thought it notable that from a 10k foot perspective, Elias treated these players differently through the first two days of the game.

[Elias_the_thief]

As I said above:

First, I think it's clear that we are very different in terms of playstyle. I personally have not done this as scum and I'm not doing it as scum now. Anyways, if you go back and read his post, he sounded like he had pretty much made up his mind.

What I think I need to see is one of the following:

(1) A strong argument that provides evidence of why the Elias/Dybeck pair does NOT make sense, or
(2) A strong argument for why another player is a MORE LIKELY candidate than Elias for being scum with Dybeck.

I'd also like to hear from AlyG and Lucienne, obviously. Even a quick scumdar rundown from them would help quite a bit.

To me, it seemed that him voting me based on this alone seemed pretty inevitable. I simply brought it up to point out that it shouldnt take evidence against my case from preventing a vote from him. Maybe I overreacted, but not by much, I think.

[Elias_the_thief]

About the "treatment" post:
1021 was critical about a dybeck case, not noncomittal. 1025 was posted by vollkan not me. 1029 was questioning a deadline. 1255 is a tentative yes, not being noncommittal.
1272 was defending myself from bogus accusations, not attacking korlash. Your post really isnt nearly as strong when you take out the untrue.

[Gemelli]

Sorry, got one of the #s wrong; 1025 should be 1035.

3) I'd like to see if it's a good enough case that I'd be willing to put my vote behind. At this point, I dont think I would.

I cited this as noncommittal because you used the phrase "don't think." But overall I would agree that this post is more critical of Vollkan's case against Dybeck, not noncommittal.

and I'm undecided AlyG.

This was a response to AlyG asking if you were going to stick with your vote on orig; the two major wagons at this point were Dybeck and Oman. I cited this as a "noncommittal" on Dybeck because of the context and because you were not stating an opinion either way. You could view this as a noncommittal on Oman too.

Gemelli: as for the Dybeck wagon/case, its alright, but its not too convincing. I would probably be willing to vote Dybeck at deadline, though I'd rather lynch orig who i think is certain scum. Also, I asked for Shafted to outline the Oman case, he never did. If you would be willing to, I'd be happy to listen and tell you what I think.

This is noncommittal.

My opinion on the dybeck claim? I dunno yet. ... I dont see any reason to seriously disbelieve his claim right now, so for now its a tentative yes.

This is noncommittal, leaning towards support of Dybeck.

And I cited 1272 as an example of you starting to turn on Dybeck, not an example of you attacking Korlash.

So if I update the first sentence after "Day 2" to read "Elias made four posts in which he was

either noncommittal towards, or challenging of, Vollkan's case against Dybeck

," do you agree that what I've posted is accurate?

In either case, I think this demonstrates that you have been inclined to act more favorably towards Dybeck than you were towards Oman under similar circumstances.