Mini 1830 - Game Over

[CCC]

Because investigative + protective + support makes no sense!

/s

Why not? It could be balanced out with scum roles as necessary.

/s denotes sarcasm

Ah, I see. Thanks.

[CCC]

This when Jester is being fairly widely scumread.
Of the three people mentioned by Huntress here, one (myself) I know for certain sure is Town. One is very probably Town; that is House. And then there's Gamma. There are good reasons to scumread Gamma, but House has recently made a very good case for the idea that Gamma is Town.
Consider the possibility that Gamma is Town. If this is true, then Huntress just proposed a scumlist of three (out of seven) players who would all be Town. The odds of three

random

players including

zero

scum (assuming two remaining scum) are (5/7)*(4/6)*(3/5) = 2/7.
Yet a scum player has a strong incentive to suggest a scumlist that consists only of Town players. Let's say that a scum player has an 80% chance of producing an entirely-Town list of reads.
The prior probability of Huntress being scum (still assuming two remaining scum) is 2/6. Then the odds of Huntress being scum from this single piece of evidence (assuming that Gamma is Town) increase to over 50%.

I am more suspicious of CCC right now.
Yesterday Gamma was his scumread and today he considers him town in his calculation but still has him as a scumlean.
Yesterday Huntress was his 3rd highest townread and today after she got some scumreads on her she dropped into one of his mainscumreads for twisted math reasoning.
You can easily twist math the way you want it to be and thats what he is doing here.

I have read into Gammas first game a little and VI could make sense for him but i still need to read the other games to see how he developed his playstyle.

My calculation was intended to show that,

if

Gamma is Town,

then

Huntress is scum. I'm giving the "Gamma Is Town" hypothesis a good look because I think that House has a good point; leaving House alive looks a lot like trying to end up getting Gamma lynched, which suggests that it might be a mislynch.

[gerryoat]

This when Jester is being fairly widely scumread.
Of the three people mentioned by Huntress here, one (myself) I know for certain sure is Town. One is very probably Town; that is House. And then there's Gamma. There are good reasons to scumread Gamma, but House has recently made a very good case for the idea that Gamma is Town.
Consider the possibility that Gamma is Town. If this is true, then Huntress just proposed a scumlist of three (out of seven) players who would all be Town. The odds of three

random

players including

zero

scum (assuming two remaining scum) are (5/7)*(4/6)*(3/5) = 2/7.
Yet a scum player has a strong incentive to suggest a scumlist that consists only of Town players. Let's say that a scum player has an 80% chance of producing an entirely-Town list of reads.
The prior probability of Huntress being scum (still assuming two remaining scum) is 2/6. Then the odds of Huntress being scum from this single piece of evidence (assuming that Gamma is Town) increase to over 50%.

I am more suspicious of CCC right now.
Yesterday Gamma was his scumread and today he considers him town in his calculation but still has him as a scumlean.
Yesterday Huntress was his 3rd highest townread and today after she got some scumreads on her she dropped into one of his mainscumreads for twisted math reasoning.
You can easily twist math the way you want it to be and thats what he is doing here.

I have read into Gammas first game a little and VI could make sense for him but i still need to read the other games to see how he developed his playstyle.

My calculation was intended to show that,

if

Gamma is Town,

then

Huntress is scum. I'm giving the "Gamma Is Town" hypothesis a good look because I think that House has a good point; leaving House alive looks a lot like trying to end up getting Gamma lynched, which suggests that it might be a mislynch.

I feel like more than House fos'd him though. Me you and Manuel all fos'd him. So, I really don't see it that way right now. I mean you could argue that House would be more aggressive in his lynch, but still.

[Eggman]

Vote Count 3.03

Not Voting

: CCC, Manuel87

The_Jester

: Gamma Emerald, House

(L-2)

Gamma Emerald

: The_Jester, gerryoat

(L-2)

CCC

: Huntress

With 7 players alive, it takes

4

players for a lynch.
The deadline for this day is (expired on 2016-10-17 14:00:00).

[House]

Actually: Gerry Huntress Manuel Jester CCC I suggest you all do color coded reads too.

I hope I do this right lol, if i mess up the colors i'll just repost with the colors written out in words

House

Manuel

CCC

Huntress

Jester

gamma

I think I've explained most of my reads already, but if anyone has any questions, lemme know.

You're sheeping your scumread... do you really expect scum is going to bus in this situation?

[House]

UNVOTE:

Reset.

[House]

Your case does bring up a lot of valid points.

If his case brings up a lot of points, how come you want house to be lynched if CCC flips town? I mean, it's possible for town to mislynch someone here. Not everyone can be 100% in their reads. But, if the reads make sense, what is the problem?

Note to self: So far, this is the first post gerry made in the game actually seeking clarification instead of assuming what he wished as the meaning behind posts.

[House]

I don't think CCC is the best vote today, but I do like his case on him. But, I also like CCC's responses, so I would prefer not to vote him.

Waffle much?

A gerry flip could be telling on CCC's alignment.

[House]

don't want to lynch Grendel, House, CCC, eagerSnake and VictorDeAngelo

anyone else just call me and i'll join

(I'm thinking there is at least 1 maf in there. It might be Victor or CCC, but I'm not really sure.)

I wonder why he avoided mentioning eager as possible scum in that list.

[House]

Also what are the votes at right now? I think eager might be close to L-1. And I think Square should be L-2 or 3 right?

Where is the railing against the eager wagon? He's your second top scumread (answering my above post), is he not?

Yet he's approaching L-1 and you aren't trying to stop his lynch... why?

[House]

Also what are the votes at right now? I think eager might be close to L-1. And I think Square should be L-2 or 3 right?

Where is the railing against the eager wagon? He's your second top townread (answering my above post), is he not?

Yet he's approaching L-1 and you aren't trying to stop his lynch... why?

EBWOP

[House]

Wow I missed a lot lol. So, eager and square cc each other? I'm guessing eager was hammered and is claiming maf. I woulda voted wrong lmao.

Wow lol that's a lot of lol, lmao. Lol.

[House]

I have to admit I don't understand you CCC. However I kinda think you might be town. It helps that the guy at the bottom of your list is the same guy I wanted to open with today:

VOTE: gerryoat

please explain why i'm mafia. because i tr eagersnake? like a few other people? Yes, because as mafia i'd hard buddy my GOON. especially when he was getting lynched.

Okay, I believe this is a slip. He seems to

know

there is a role other than goon on the mafia team.

VOTE: gerryoat

[House]

Also, he had grounds to defend eager as his second highest townread... But He Didn't.

[House]

gerry!scum also hardtowns CCC.

[House]

main reason I didn't believe him claim. it was possible auto win if he was on PR, that was his fault.

Only possible autowin if there are only two scum with a goon and scumPR setup.

If that's the case, gerry here is most likely our scumPR.

[House]

That's TWO scum slips I found on gerry.

[House]

CCC, I can't picture Gamma not killing me last night after all the shit I gave him yesterDay followed by my often repeated intent to trommel him today.

Grendel posed nowhere near the threat to Gamma that I do.

Jester is scum.

Wouldn't it be possible that he thought that at night? That if you died, he'd be the main suspect, and thus killed Grendel instead?

Now this looks like you trying to rerail the narrative you hoped I'd adopt on my own.

[House]

I assumed that meant that he wasn't happy about hammering the PR and being fos'd today

By who? Gamma?

Why would he care about that when

Gamma is the mislynch of the day?

Good point

, but I think it was more of a sense that everyone was saying the hammer was bad and he was scared to be pushed on. Then again, would mafia really make a hammer that bad? From my experience I've seen mafia shy away from hammers that could make them look in a bad light.

OMG!!

[House]

Lynch this scum bastard. Damn you for tricking me, gerry. Well played!

[House]

My case has three scum slips and two town clears with his red flip (CCC and Gamma), what more can you ask for?

[House]

VOTE: Square World

Well I'm not going to allow an environment where scum can active lurk and post just short of prodges and not have to explain anything. We already have enough of that going on.

He doesn't seem to mind the lack of activity by Huntress though.

If there's a third, poke there.

[House]

Also if Huntress doesn't post at least an "I'm up to page X, this is what I think so far...." I would vote the slot

He finally mentioned her, but it looks more like coaching than genuine suspicion.

[House]

VOTE: Huntress

I don't like this opening at all. It feels like just stalling and trying to avoid suspicion. The questions feel weak, and I don't see where their line of questioning is going either. They didn't have any questions at all for CCC, who they ended up voting for, and who is supposedly their top scumread. Nor any questions for House's slot, or Gamma's slot, who they also are supposedly scumreading. The only question for me was stuff from RVS which is weak.

So after this post where eager votes Huntress, he completely forgets she exists and unvote 151 posts later at

So to finish up I'd like to hear your hypothetical scum team.

Manuel is throwing suspicion on Square, but not voting or FOS'ing. That makes me suspect a Manuel/Square scum team is a possibility.

VOTE: Square World

And begins vote hopping again.

Yeah, I like Huntress for the third thus far.

[House]

VOTE: Manuel87

I'm lynching in Manuel and Square today. One or both are scum.

No word of Huntress.