"It doesn't matter what Earth is like! It's not going to be like anything soon!"
-Peridot,Catch and Release
Deadline
Not Chara is V/LA until Saturday, 10/09/2016
"It doesn't matter what Earth is like! It's not going to be like anything soon!"
-Peridot,Catch and Release
In post 7723, mastin2 wrote:So...we're assuming, at this point: three groupscum and one traitor.In [url=http://server1.kproxy.com/servlet/redirect.srv/syku/svenenwuqd/spqr/p1/forum/viewtopic.php?p=8387726#p8387726]post 7276[/url], Not Chara wrote:Rational: mastin (+1) Skybird: mastin (+1) Almost: mastin (+1) Mastin: self (+3) Yume: mastin (+1)
total: 7
Chara: self (+3) Farside: Chara (+2)
total: 5
Titus: self (+3) Kraska: Titus (+1) Xkfyu: Titus (+1) Grapes: Titus (+1)
total: 6
Shiro: none Snarky: none DGB: none Random: none Fuzzy: none (didn't answer?) TWIE: none
Creature: shadow step Magna: voted Rational Shadow step: Almost Fire: Rational
McMenno: self
The traitor, by necessity, could not have voted Not Chara, Titus, or me. They don't know how scum are voting, so they cannot coordinate a vote. Most likely, they submit a no-vote, identical to the worthless votes in analysis.
By necessity, one groupscum would also be in that group.
Two scum players could coordinate their votes onto a player in the top three, but only one of them would be able to claim being there; the other would be forced to claim none.
This means:Exactly one scum in:RR/Skybird/Almost50/NotChara/farside22/kraska/Xkfyu/grapes.
(NOTE: two becomes possible if, and ONLY if, there's four groupscum.)
Exactly three scum in:
Shiro/Snarky/DGB/randomidget/fuzzylogic/TWIE/Creature/Magna/Shadow_step/Firebringer.
I have thoughts on both groups, and I do need to cross-reference this with my notes on my analysis.
But I strongly believe that the scum in the first group is kraskaesque. VERY strongly. And that the other names there are all town. (This is a combination of a very serious scumread on kraskaesque, and a not-scumread on literally every name there aside from kraska.)
The second group is more tricky. User feedback would be appreciated. For instance, this is largely where a player like, saaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay, Titus comes in.
Quoting these because of how important they are.In [url=http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?p=8394984#p8394984]post 7724[/url], mastin2 wrote:Worth noting: Not Chara is confirmed as town from this.
Not Chara got 5 points.
Even if Not Chara were scum and farside were scum, that would mean they'd get 1.5 votes, and 1 vote, respectively, for it. Then, factor in scumbuddies: one scumbuddy brings the total up to 3. That's three scum voting, and you get 3 votes. Then, factor in two more. You still end up short, at only 4.
In other words, Not Chara cannot be scum, no matter what. (This is rather handy for my analysis!)
farside is, in theory, possible: her vote would be worth one point. (So, 4.) Two scumbuddies would bring that total up to five.
However, I do not think that probable.
Flawed analysis. NC as scum would be 1.5, farside as town would be 2, up to 3.5+3 buddies=5.In post 7724, mastin2 wrote:Worth noting: Not Chara is confirmed as town from this.
Not Chara got 5 points.
Even if Not Chara were scum and farside were scum, that would mean they'd get 1.5 votes, and 1 vote, respectively, for it. Then, factor in scumbuddies: one scumbuddy brings the total up to 3. That's three scum voting, and you get 3 votes. Then, factor in two more. You still end up short, at only 4.
In other words, Not Chara cannot be scum, no matter what. (This is rather handy for my analysis!)
farside is, in theory, possible: her vote would be worth one point. (So, 4.) Two scumbuddies would bring that total up to five.
However, I do not think that probable.
Yeah.In post 7727, Reasonably Rational wrote:Flawed analysis. NC as scum would be 1.5, farside as town would be 2, up to 3.5+3 buddies=5.
-Cerb
What do you want from me?In post 7702, mastin2 wrote:If you are town, Titus is not the player I would say this for.In post 6550, farside22 wrote:Congrats to Titus for helping the scum team hide.
Because, uh, yeah.
I want to think you are scum so badly for this.
Really, I do.
I really, really do.
Because my life would be SO much simpler if the person who has been obstructing us the whole. fucking. game. Was just scum, rather than town in the way.
Reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeally, I do.
And, dammit! There's lots of good reasons for you to be scum!
There's a lot of things which make you look incredibly bad and I SO want you to be scum because of them.
But no matter how hard I try.
I just can't see myself thinking you're actually scum.
Something tells me you're just another mislynch in the making, that was offered on a silver platter to the scum.
I'll be looking at the wagon on you (which I caught there being) when I get to the relevant point, and crossreferencing it with my notes on SirCakez and Mathblade. (Spoiler alert: scum bussed SirCakez HARD. I'd have to check my notes, but Ibelievethere's a more even spread in regards to Mathblade, with aslightlean towards them being off the wagon.)
I have those three listed on my scum list along with Shiro.In post 7711, mastin2 wrote:Did I mention I'm not a fan of the farside wagon?In post 6975, Varsoon wrote:Farside22 (7)SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion,TheWayItEnds, DrippingGoofball,Creature
'Cause, uh, yeah.
Removed the names which're town. Strike = strongly believe to be town but not absolutely sure; underline = weakly believe to be town as a townread but could be convinced otherwise.
I'm dead serious about Magna by the way: if anyone hasanythingthey'd like to share about him which would make me feel better (aside from him being in the KTS slot), I'd love to have it so that I could actually write him off and not bother getting a read on him.
'Cause, uh, yeah. As-is. He's someone I desperately want to be alignment confirmed one way or another.
It doesn't hurt the town.In post 7712, mastin2 wrote:^This is pretty much my thoughts on the matter.In post 6979, Firebringer wrote:What I don't get is why we are lynching you over scum hiding among the lurkers/sheep
farside looks really bad.
I don't think she's scum.
I want to lynch scum.
If farside has a third party wincon that fucks over the town, I won't blame farside, nor will I blame the town for letting it happen, nor will I blame the scum for letting it happen. I will write a very fucking long rant to Varsoon about not learning his damn lesson.
If farside has a third party wincon that doesn't fuck the town over...why bother?
If farside IS town...why bother?
It's only if farside is scum that we bother.
And I don't believe she is.
My thoughts are that if we get a scum flip in the top half of my pile, we've got a BUNDLELOAD of conftown players.In post 7303, McMenno wrote:I want to get mastina's thoughts
1 can't be assumed to be untrue, 2 seems basically impossible without 1 happening, the traitor and a member of the scum team would have needed to luck into allying one another AND been confident enough that they were both scum to claim and plot during the freeze, 3 seems improbable, the jaspar check doesn't make much sense if she isn't a traitor(barring some special bonus for removing her/having her still alive in the game, but she doesn't make sense as town in any way), and 4 isn't unreasonable. I mean, it's a 25 player game. Why would 5.5 scum not work in single ball?In post 7729, mastin2 wrote:Yeah.In post 7727, Reasonably Rational wrote:Flawed analysis. NC as scum would be 1.5, farside as town would be 2, up to 3.5+3 buddies=5.
-Cerb
3buddies.
That'd require Not Chara + 3 scumbuddies.
But we have SirCakez dead. (5 total groupscum.)
And we're assuming a traitor.
So unless you think either (1) the traitor's been recruited, (2) the scum coordinated with the traitor, (3) there is no traitor and they just have five groupscum, or (4) there is a traitor and six total scum (five group, plus traitor), then, yeah.
Not Chara is town.
I mean, sure.
It does require a few assumptions here.
But do you believe any of the above are true, Cerb? (I definitely don't believe in 2, general consensus is that it's not 3, so that leaves 1 or 4.)
If not, Not Chara must be town.
Same ability, different application, basically.In post 7422, Reasonably Rational wrote:Can you explain why mastin claimed YOU were the source of the kc kill? She said it was the same source as rhe fb thing, which you've claimed....but you say it was scum, not you.
Correct.In post 7637, Titus wrote:Not even during season finales.
mastina stubbornness, the kind I don't get often.In post 7706, Titus wrote:I am out for awhile in a bit, so please feel free to take yor time to explain like the whole post please. I just cannot see your perspective.
Yes it is.In post 7709, Titus wrote:I am pretty sure there's a boatload of scum in those that didn't vote the top three choices. Seems deliberate.
Can you expound on what Snarky has done to be towny in your alliance?In post 7733, Creature wrote:Btw, Snarky has been towny in my alliance.
I find thay hard to believe.In post 7733, Creature wrote:Btw, Snarky has been towny in my alliance.
How many players this game have a third party wincon, Cerb?
Umm. I do believe said balancing should be done based on how said roles would actually work in play.In post 7741, mastin2 wrote:How many players this game have a third party wincon, Cerb?
Ask yourself that.
Then factor in that, no matter how town these third party wincons are,they are still not town. From a strictly-speaking technical perspective.
Yeah, in play, they might be. (For instance, the URS.) But from a strictly speaking, balancing, perspective, they aren't.
I think there could maybe be two hidden in there, but I am not town reading the same group you are, so it could be that the difference in our view is in that group of players. Which is fine really. That's not a huge PoE pool if it comes to it.In post 7738, mastin2 wrote:Yes it is.In post 7709, Titus wrote:I am pretty sure there's a boatload of scum in those that didn't vote the top three choices. Seems deliberate.
There can be a MAXIMUM of one scum in those who voted the top three choices. Maximum.
The rest, by necessity, are therefore spread among those that didn't.
And there, I need your feedback.
I'll let Cerb answer this.In post 7741, mastin2 wrote:How many players this game have a third party wincon, Cerb?
Ask yourself that.
Then factor in that, no matter how town these third party wincons are,they are still not town. From a strictly-speaking technical perspective.
Yeah, in play, they might be. (For instance, the URS.) But from a strictly speaking, balancing, perspective, they aren't.
In post 7723, mastin2 wrote:But I strongly believe that the scum in the first group is kraskaesque. VERY strongly. And that the other names there are all town. (This is a combination of a very serious scumread on kraskaesque, and a not-scumread on literally every name there aside from kraska.)
explain the "some hypocrisy on their part" partIn post 7732, mastin2 wrote:When I'm not short on time, I can explain why. It's a combination of things. Their contributions to this game (rather, lack thereof),some hypocrisy on their part, flat pushes with no conviction (empty tone, essentially), plus some really bad, damning positioning in VCA.
Can't argue with that. I don't really know, how to prove my point that far really doesn't look like scum. It makes no sense to me. Her strong stances, her bias towards me, it just doesn't seem like scum moves. Her flavour and roles support me as well.In post 7701, Reasonably Rational wrote:Their recent play is crap
Why are you getting so defensive over a single vote ?In post 7745, kraskaesque wrote:So you come back here to try and sell a case on me and snarky lol gtfoexplain the "some hypocrisy on their part" partIn post 7732, mastin2 wrote:When I'm not short on time, I can explain why. It's a combination of things. Their contributions to this game (rather, lack thereof),some hypocrisy on their part, flat pushes with no conviction (empty tone, essentially), plus some really bad, damning positioning in VCA.