Newbie 1741 - Game Over

[Titus]

@492, I am investigating Zito by voting him. Not particularly liking his OMGUS stance here.

@497, Why would I revert to Algebra day 1? A scumread dead is a scumread dead. I am deliberately testing things right now. What is your read on algebra, if scum, why are you not voting?

[Dunhallym]

@492, I am investigating Zito by voting him. Not particularly liking his OMGUS stance here.

@497, Why would I revert to Algebra day 1? A scumread dead is a scumread dead. I am deliberately testing things right now. What is your read on algebra, if scum, why are you not voting?

Thoughts on Empoof?

On the second part: to me, algebra was a better day 1 lynch, as I stated yesterday. If nothing else, Shaddow was at least contributing. But the reason I'm asking you is that you started your suspicion on Shaddowez as algebra's partner, and it still appears when you vote Shaddowez.

@Shaddowez, Again you reference my "stubbornness" in talking with Zito.

This is important on three fronts. 1) You used it to white knight me when a wagon developed on me. 2) It's not a fair representation of what happened. It's more accurate to say Zito and I were talking past each other.

3) You suddenly acted as if those pages were scummy later, when needing to stop voting algebra.

People picked up on this as well. You're asking me to essentially rehash what others filling in for me. I am not in the mood to rehash.

Your retract your vote on me right after being called on it. This type of sheepish attitude doesn't work for an IC. You are not answering or resolving things.

I'm fine with going here.

VOTE: Shaddowez

The algebra/Shaddowez relationship looks like a great part in your suspicion of Shaddowez yet you pushed for a Shaddowez lynch rather than an algebra one. I'm asking why.

My read on algebra has not changed. I'm not voting because I don't want to rush the day so I can give my full thoughts before day ends in case I'm NKed. Which implies getting answers and doing some work.

[Titus]

And I am telling you that I moved off Algebra after the Shaddowez wagon took off. I mentioned Shaddowez trajectory was shit because it was.

Emproof is town.

I am looking for algebra's partner, if he has one.

[nn30]

And I am telling you that I moved off Algebra after the Shaddowez wagon took off. I mentioned Shaddowez trajectory was shit because it was.

Emproof is town.

I am looking for algebra's partner, if he has one.

Empoof town - you're gonna have to give us more to go off of than that.

[Xalxe]

Vote Count 2.4

Dodge Ram. Good car. Even better advice.

algebra (1)

: nn30

Papa Zito (1)

: Titus

Not Voting

: Papa Zito, algebra, Morning Tweet, Dunhallym, Empoof

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2016-10-19 21:53:21)

[Papa Zito]

I hope algebra's "couple more days" ends today.

[algebra]

Yup I'm back in town I'm planning to go the library either today or tomorrow

[Dunhallym]

Tweety should also be back. I'd like to hear more from her.

[Morning Tweet]

Indeed I should be back, but I will have to phone post for the next week as I have no internet access.

@Dunny I think it was in a non algebra scumteam's best interest to lynch shadow over algebra yesterday, so I'm interested in that wagon.

In addition scum killed a member of the shadow wagon, Arona, as if they wanted to make it even easier to lynch algebra today by leaving algebra voters alive.

So I'm looking at Empoof, Papa, and Titus for one if not two scum. My gut doesn't want to believe there's a Papa/Titus scumteam, so there's a higher chance Empoof is scum if there's two scum in that group. Furthermore Titus currently has a mystery townread on Empoof, so I think the best possible vote is:

VOTE: Empoof

[Papa Zito]

In addition scum killed a member of the shadow wagon, Arona, as if they wanted to make it even easier to lynch algebra today by leaving algebra voters alive.

This is an interesting idea. One issue with your theory is this:

Ok so if shaddowez flips town, I really don't see how algebra isn't going to be lynched tomorrow.

If the idea was to ensure an algebra mislynch today, why kill someone who looks like they're a very willing algebra voter?

[Morning Tweet]

They had the choice of killing Empoof, Titus, Zito, or Arona (excluding the possible scum in that wagon) if that was part of or all of their motivation. IIRC everyone was okay with an algebra lynch today, not just Arona. The difference was that some wanted him lynched on day one, others were content with lynching shadow instead and letting algebra live on to day two.

Which goes back to how I believe algebra is the goat for today's lunch.

[Papa Zito]

They had the choice of killing Empoof, Titus, Zito, or Arona (excluding the possible scum in that wagon) if that was part of or all of their motivation. IIRC everyone was okay with an algebra lynch today, not just Arona. The difference was that some wanted him lynched on day one, others were content with lynching shadow instead and letting algebra live on to day two.

Which goes back to how I believe algebra is the goat for today's lunch.

Goat for lunch sounds delicious.

I'm not following your logic though. Say more words.

[Titus]

And I am telling you that I moved off Algebra after the Shaddowez wagon took off. I mentioned Shaddowez trajectory was shit because it was.

Emproof is town.

I am looking for algebra's partner, if he has one.

Empoof town - you're gonna have to give us more to go off of than that.

No, really, I don't. Scum must be in algebra/Dunn/Zito based on how this has played out. Therefore emproof is town.

[Titus]

In addition scum killed a member of the shadow wagon, Arona, as if they wanted to make it even easier to lynch algebra today by leaving algebra voters alive.

This is an interesting idea. One issue with your theory is this:

Ok so if shaddowez flips town, I really don't see how algebra isn't going to be lynched tomorrow.

If the idea was to ensure an algebra mislynch today, why kill someone who looks like they're a very willing algebra voter?

If they wanted to not kill an alegra voter, they'd have to no kill.

[Empoof]

@Empoof

If I get it, you suspect Zito only by association with algebra. What are your thoughts on Titus?

I had the luxary of reading a game she got D1 lynched as town and it looked fairly similar to her line of thinking this game. I know Papa doesn't like meta reads but it's helped.

She's also pushing cases that have reasoning that I like. I'd lean town for now considering scum!algebra, but if not I'll have to take a closer look.

@Empoof - If I'm reading you correctly, your defense of my 445 is that my process of elimination should never have left you as the lone suspect?

I was reading Titus as suspicious of Shadow at that time. Even though you voted before she did, her suspicion came before yours. Rather than initiating the wagon, you joined it.

Can you back up your suspicion of Papa Zito with anything from earlier in the day?

I'd also like to know why you did so little scum hunting of me, your top scumspect.

I think it's narrow sighted to write off people like that. There's still the (unlikely but possible) situation of Titus having bussed algebra all D1 and planning to win by being "cleared", but saw the shadow wagon and moved to that one. I get you want to focus on me, and understand why you would, but completely ruling out other targets is foolish. I disliked your reasoning for leaving off Zito especially, since

he started a counterwagon away from algebra

. For you to ignore that and say that scum don't like to rock the boat really put me off.

My suspicion of Papa has to do with earlier in the day. Iso him and look at where he mentions algebra and you'll see the softball questions and a lack of mention of his stance on the algebra lynch - until it's getting close to the wire. That's why I view the post I brought up as hedging bets on the lynch, since I was clueless he was comfortable with it until it was crunch time.

I didn't scumhunt you heavily because I was scumhunting arona and then was relatively absent. Read my iso from unvoting arona to lynching shadow and you can see that. As I read through your posts and listened to peoples reasonings I "wanted to do some soul searching" and didn't like shadow's titus push. When he floundered more it was easy to hold the vote.

Question: Do you see me pushing a possible Zito scum as rocking the boat?

[Empoof]

Indeed I should be back, but I will have to phone post for the next week as I have no internet access.

@Dunny I think it was in a non algebra scumteam's best interest to lynch shadow over algebra yesterday, so I'm interested in that wagon.

In addition scum killed a member of the shadow wagon, Arona, as if they wanted to make it even easier to lynch algebra today by leaving algebra voters alive.

So I'm looking at Empoof, Papa, and Titus for one if not two scum. My gut doesn't want to believe there's a Papa/Titus scumteam, so there's a higher chance Empoof is scum if there's two scum in that group. Furthermore Titus currently has a mystery townread on Empoof, so I think the best possible vote is:

VOTE: Empoof

How do you feel about algebra? Going with this line of thinking, would you call him town? How do you feel about his hammer yesterday? Where does that leave nn to you, someone who (sheepishly) had intent to hammer?

[Dunhallym]

And I am telling you that I moved off Algebra after the Shaddowez wagon took off. I mentioned Shaddowez trajectory was shit because it was.

Emproof is town.

I am looking for algebra's partner, if he has one.

Empoof town - you're gonna have to give us more to go off of than that.

No, really, I don't. Scum must be in algebra/Dunn/Zito based on how this has played out. Therefore emproof is town.

What do you think of Tweety?

[Titus]

@empoof, vote papa or algebra then?

[Papa Zito]

Prod received, still gonna be v/la for a couple more days though. Papa looks pretty bad rn

tick tock clarice

[nn30]

1) I think it's narrow sighted to write off people like that. There's still the (unlikely but possible) situation of Titus having bussed algebra all D1 and planning to win by being "cleared", but saw the shadow wagon and moved to that one. I get you want to focus on me, and understand why you would, but completely ruling out other targets is foolish.

I disliked your reasoning for leaving off Zito especially, since

he started a counterwagon away from algebra

. For you to ignore that and say that scum don't like to rock the boat really put me off.

2) My suspicion of Papa has to do with earlier in the day. Iso him and look at where he mentions algebra and you'll see the softball questions and a lack of mention of his stance on the algebra lynch - until it's getting close to the wire. That's why I view the post I brought up as hedging bets on the lynch, since I was clueless he was comfortable with it until it was crunch time.

3) I didn't scumhunt you heavily because I was scumhunting arona and then was relatively absent. Read my iso from unvoting arona to lynching shadow and you can see that. As I read through your posts and listened to peoples reasonings I "wanted to do some soul searching" and didn't like shadow's titus push. When he floundered more it was easy to hold the vote.

4) Question: Do you see me pushing a possible Zito scum as rocking the boat?

1) Let's take your logic to it's fullest extent (referring to the bolded). Here are the assumptions you are making for this scenario.

a) Algebra is scum
b) Papa Zito is scum
c) Papa Zito started the counterwagon (260) on Shadow in order to save his scum buddy

How does this play out in later days? Zito knows Shadow will flip town. After that point, the town will likely revert back to bussing whoever it was bussing before switching to Shadow. In this scenario, that's either Algebra or myself (referring to the VC in 237 with myself and Algebra tied). At the point in time where Zito made his play (bussing Shadow) let's say there's a 50/50 chance that he manages to divert the wagon away from Algebra on day two. Is this a logical scum play?

To take this into day 2 speculation (I fully admit that this is difficult to speculate accurately; I'm doing it for the purposes of this thought process).

Then

we have to assume that town won't turn on him (or Algebra) once I flip town. Is this still a play that logical scum would make?

Re-read the interactions between Shadow and Zito leading up to Zito's vote in 260. I think that it's more likely that Zito found Shaddow's actions at the time to be scummy and chose to switch focus to him.

2) Sure, these do seem like softball questions. I'll concede this point, but I do have a question.

How does this read match up with how Zito has been behaving on day two? Please look at 476 and 518 in particular.

3) Why did you choose to scumhunt Arona over me though? I get that you were absent - that's fine - but you chose to go after someone other than your top scumspect.

4) Sure; you're scum hunting a fresh target. That could be seen as rocking the boat.

You could also be trying to divert attention away from Algebra (just as you claim Zito did by bussing Shadow).

It could go either way IMO but I'm leaning towards the latter rather than the former.

[Papa Zito]

VOTE: algebra

Post or perish.

[Empoof]

1) I think it's narrow sighted to write off people like that. There's still the (unlikely but possible) situation of Titus having bussed algebra all D1 and planning to win by being "cleared", but saw the shadow wagon and moved to that one. I get you want to focus on me, and understand why you would, but completely ruling out other targets is foolish.

I disliked your reasoning for leaving off Zito especially, since

he started a counterwagon away from algebra

. For you to ignore that and say that scum don't like to rock the boat really put me off.

2) My suspicion of Papa has to do with earlier in the day. Iso him and look at where he mentions algebra and you'll see the softball questions and a lack of mention of his stance on the algebra lynch - until it's getting close to the wire. That's why I view the post I brought up as hedging bets on the lynch, since I was clueless he was comfortable with it until it was crunch time.

3) I didn't scumhunt you heavily because I was scumhunting arona and then was relatively absent. Read my iso from unvoting arona to lynching shadow and you can see that. As I read through your posts and listened to peoples reasonings I "wanted to do some soul searching" and didn't like shadow's titus push. When he floundered more it was easy to hold the vote.

4) Question: Do you see me pushing a possible Zito scum as rocking the boat?

1) Let's take your logic to it's fullest extent (referring to the bolded). Here are the assumptions you are making for this scenario.

a) Algebra is scum
b) Papa Zito is scum
c) Papa Zito started the counterwagon (260) on Shadow in order to save his scum buddy

How does this play out in later days? Zito knows Shadow will flip town. After that point, the town will likely revert back to bussing whoever it was bussing before switching to Shadow. In this scenario, that's either Algebra or myself (referring to the VC in 237 with myself and Algebra tied). At the point in time where Zito made his play (bussing Shadow) let's say there's a 50/50 chance that he manages to divert the wagon away from Algebra on day two. Is this a logical scum play?

To take this into day 2 speculation (I fully admit that this is difficult to speculate accurately; I'm doing it for the purposes of this thought process).

Then

we have to assume that town won't turn on him (or Algebra) once I flip town. Is this still a play that logical scum would make?

Re-read the interactions between Shadow and Zito leading up to Zito's vote in 260. I think that it's more likely that Zito found Shaddow's actions at the time to be scummy and chose to switch focus to him.

2) Sure, these do seem like softball questions. I'll concede this point, but I do have a question.

How does this read match up with how Zito has been behaving on day two? Please look at 476 and 518 in particular.

3) Why did you choose to scumhunt Arona over me though? I get that you were absent - that's fine - but you chose to go after someone other than your top scumspect.

4) Sure; you're scum hunting a fresh target. That could be seen as rocking the boat.

You could also be trying to divert attention away from Algebra (just as you claim Zito did by bussing Shadow).

It could go either way IMO but I'm leaning towards the latter rather than the former.

1.) Is this a logical scum play - yeah, he found the scummy looking target that Titus was looking at, someone who was ride-or-die algebra=scum, and pushed him while appealing to Titus. This is a beautiful wagon to counterpush. I don't like how you put chance numbers in this, I think looking at a situation like that as a 50/50 isn't good. Algebra is looking worse and worse and Zito needs to find a target that will appeal to a mass audience more. Enter:Shadow

2.) It matches up with Zito taking a backseat early on and trying to gather ground. I dislike him taking a backseat while he was considered so townie by so many people. What does scum!algebra's partner do this day other than bus because algebra's so screwed.

3.) I wrote why I chose to scumhunt arona over you when I voted him - look over those posts. You're stressing this "topscumspect" thing really hard. You can see my behaviour and my reasonings in my iso and I don't think I need to rehash any of that.

4.) HOW AM I DIVERTING ATTENTION AWAY FROM ALGEBRA WHEN HE'S BEEN DEFACTO MY LYNCH TARGET AND CORE FOUNDATION FOR SCUMREADS

[Empoof]

@empoof, vote papa or algebra then?

Why would you vote Papa today over Algebra

[Morning Tweet]

@Empoof Believe me, I'm not townreading algebra for his words or actions. The night kill is what's setting me off, I think the only way I'm wrong about it is if scum don't put any thought behind who they kill at night. His hammer was NAI self preservation, yesterday I didn't think highly of it but with the new info I have no problem with his explanation in 283.

Seeing as algebra hadn't yet voted shadowez, I see no reason for scum that hadn't already jumped on shadow to perform the hammer. I also don't think this'd be a smart WIFOM.

@Titus You mention you're looking for algebras partner, and that given your reads (which we still don't know much about) his scumpartner is Dunn or Zito. You haven't yet answered Dunny's question of why I'm not in that pile (especially when I seem to be the only person in the game that doesn't want algebra hung)

[Dunhallym]

Seems like I got nearly all my answers. I have a lot to say so I'll try to do it either today or tomorrow.