Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Korlash]

No...

[Korlash]

dang computer... messed up again...

No...

unless you force Orig, AlyG, and even to a lesser extent Elias to post another scumdar... I see no reason why i should not wait... I have already told you I am biased on Elais and Lucienne. And that will create a false and meaningless Scumdar. Also it will give you more reason to attack me and it will just overall piss me off. I would rather self lynch just to end this then have to try and defend a false scumdar.

That is what I meant to say...

Plain and simple: I would rather die today to prove I am town, then have to deal with anymore crap from Vollkan. Sorry. But I am just too tired to have to try and defend a false scumdar. If you cannot accept that, fine vote me and I will hammer. At least then you won't have to deal with my crap tomorrow right

[Streeflo]

Day 3 Fixed Votecount #38!

sorry guys =P

Elias_the_Thief (1) - Korlash
Korlash (1) - Gemelli

Not voting: Lucienne, Elias_the_Thief, AlyG, originality, vollkan

With

7

alive it takes

4

to kick someone off the plane headfirst and eyes wide open.

[Gemelli]

OK. Things seem to be slowing down a bit, so I think it's worth reviewing where we are from a scenario-analysis point of view.

This will involve numbers, which makes me a bit tentative since Korlash is already standing by the airplane doors and threatening to jump, but here goes.

We are most likely at 5:2 (Orig=vig), or 4:2:1 (Orig=SK).

Given the confirmation of a cop and at least one non-mafia killing role, I think it's reasonable to assume that the Mafia has at least one power role among the two remaining players, whether it be Godfather, Roleblocker, Tracker, or something else.

Obviously, our best course of action once again is to lynch mafia. If my math is right, we can get away with a single mislynch OR a single misvig (results in LYLO), but not a mislynch+misvig (bcs LYLO, wcs 2:2:1). Correct?

I think there's a consensus that Orig is almost definitely not mafia, whether he's SK or vig. That leaves a pool of 6 players who may occupy those two mafia roles:

* Korlash
* Elias
* Lucienne
* AlyG
* Vollkan
* Gemelli

I've listed those players in my current order of suspicion. I am fairly confident that there is at least one mafia among the top 3, and probably two. AlyG could potentially be a scum tracker, and Vollkan could have arranged an elaborate ruse to drive a lynch of his mafia partner, but I think those scenarios are less likely.

Now: the mafia most likely left Orig alone last night because he did not pose an immediate threat to them. So first I would like to suggest that at a minimum, if we DO lynch Mafia today, Orig should be allowed to select a NK target at his discretion -- obviously, considering the input from all players first -- without fear of reprisal.

If we mislynch, it gets dicey. What should Orig do in that situation? I think that comes down to how comfortable the town is with its suspicions. Is it worth re-introducing the town consensus list idea? If the town has a general consensus on the top 3 most suspicious players in the game, is it worth having Orig take a shot at one of those players, even in the event of a mislynch?

I ask the question because I want to get input from the rest of you. It would be a calculated risk, but as it stands now, Originality's risk to Mafia is hobbled. I would be in favor of taking that risk, even though I think it's highly likely that I would be on the town's top-3 list.

Originality, if you could chime in at some point in the near future -- just giving your thoughts on the players as of now, and the cases against Korlash and Elias in particular -- it'd be appreciated. With AlyG's and Lucienne's continued level of participation in the game a question mark, we really need all the help we can get to move forward.

A few questions/comments for Korlash:

* If Orig and Elias posted updated scumdars, would you post one? AlyG hasn't posted on MS at all in 11 days or so. If your issue is that you feel singled out, would you at least play ball if everyone was being asked to do the same thing?

* Also, in your Elias-vote post, you didn't respond to the point I raised on you: specifically, that you have made inconsistent explanations for why you didn't look at Dybeck until late in the game. Did you have anything to say in response?

* If you ARE town, I can appreciate your frustration, but please don't hammer yourself. Suck it up and play the game! Convince us not to lynch you, or make a stronger case on another player! Don't put the town in a bad spot because you're getting frustrated dealing with our suspicions ... suspicions and rebuttals are what the game is all about, after all

[Korlash]

* If Orig and Elias posted updated scumdars, would you post one? AlyG hasn't posted on MS at all in 11 days or so. If your issue is that you feel singled out, would you at least play ball if everyone was being asked to do the same thing?

Sure I was actually calculating numbers in my head today at work.. I think I have people in a sort of order. All I need is to find where I place Lucienne (and that is a major issue with me...)

So far I have:

Elias
Gem
Orig
Vollkan
AlyG

With Lucienne hovering in the top spot, but I could overlook lurkiness as "family emergency" and place her after Gem.

That is a semi-Scumdar that I pieced together at work today. So... Happy or not, there you go.

On a side note:

MOD:

[b/]

I have a friend of mine who is like me and is stupid enough to replace into long games. Want I should see if he would be willing to replace?

* Also, in your Elias-vote post, you didn't respond to the point I raised on you: specifically, that you have made inconsistent explanations for why you didn't look at Dybeck until late in the game. Did you have anything to say in response?

No. i really cannot say anything but the truth. i was a little bit overwhelmed with Vollkan and my replacement reread. I know its sketchy but that is what happened, or how i remembering it happening...

* If you ARE town, I can appreciate your frustration, but please don't hammer yourself. Suck it up and play the game! Convince us not to lynch you, or make a stronger case on another player! Don't put the town in a bad spot because you're getting frustrated dealing with our suspicions ... suspicions and rebuttals are what the game is all about, after all

I wasn't really going to hammer. I am not that much of an asshole. I wanted to se if Elias would put me at L-1 just to "take up my offer" I know, stupid right? But i figured it was worth a try.

The more I think about it, the more I think I would garner a vote from Orig, alyG, lucienne, or maybe Vollkan just for saying it. So I figured I better not continue with that plan... Yikes...

So yeah... Takes on replacement? i'll tell him to give you a pm or something...

[vollkan]

Given the confirmation of a cop and at least one non-mafia killing role, I think it's reasonable to assume that the Mafia has at least one power role among the two remaining players, whether it be Godfather, Roleblocker, Tracker, or something else.

As I said, GF is most likely, then RB, and then tracker/others.

Obviously, our best course of action once again is to lynch mafia. If my math is right, we can get away with a single mislynch OR a single misvig (results in LYLO), but not a mislynch+misvig (bcs LYLO, wcs 2:2:1). Correct?

As you say, we are either 5:2 or 4:2:1.

From 5:2:

Mislynch = 4:2
MafNK = 3:2
-MisVig = 2:2
Now, if Orig is killed by the mafia, we have lost. If Orig is not killed, then we No Lynch, Orig has to kill a mafioso and not be killed himself (highly unlikely) to make it 1:1 draw. Since Orig has already been outed, this scenario is not going to happen.

From 4:2:1

Mislynch = 3:2:1
MafNK = 2:2:1
-SK NK town = 1:2:1. LOSS. Mafia win.
-SK NK mafia = 2:1:1 Yuck. We need cross-kills to win.

* Korlash
* Elias
* Lucienne
* AlyG
* Vollkan
* Gemelli

I've listed those players in my current order of suspicion. I am fairly confident that there is at least one mafia among the top 3, and probably two. AlyG could potentially be a scum tracker, and Vollkan could have arranged an elaborate ruse to drive a lynch of his mafia partner, but I think those scenarios are less likely.

My own list:
* Korlash 75%
* Elias 70%
* Gemelli 65%
* Lucienne 65%
* AlyG 0% due to claim
* Orig 0% due to claim
* Vollkan 0%

Now, if there are 2 scum left, I am confident they are in my top four (Korlash, ELias, Gemelli and Lucienne). However, the probability is only 50%.

Now: the mafia most likely left Orig alone last night because he did not pose an immediate threat to them. So first I would like to suggest that at a minimum, if we DO lynch Mafia today, Orig should be allowed to select a NK target at his discretion -- obviously, considering the input from all players first -- without fear of reprisal.

If we lynch mafia today:
In 5:2,
Maflynch = 5:1
MafNK = 4:1
-Orig NK town = 3:1
-Orig NK scum = 4:0

Here, whilst it is true that Orig succeeding could cause us to win instantly, a misvig causes us to be at 3:1, where a mislynch will cause a loss, unless Orig survives in which case we can still win.

4:1 grants us the ability to mislynch (to 2:1) and then no lynch twice (3:1, 2:1).
3:1 grants us one No Lynch (2:1)

Now, what is the advantage of Orig NKing? We win. But, we win anyway if we lynch successfully the following day. I would personally prefer to have that power in the hands of more people than just Orig. Even if we do have the consensus thing, I would still prefer a lynch. Plus, if things look dicey, we can always No Lynch.

In 4:2:1,
Maflynch = 4:1:1
MafNK town (wcs) = 3:1:1
-Orig NK town = 2:1:1
-Orig NK scum = 3:0:1

Frankly, as we can see here, Orig is in a bad spot no matter what happens. For us, it really is better if Orig does not NK, since we can then move to lynch mafia (it is more likely a lynch will get mafia successfully than an Orig NK) and then lynch Orig in the ensuing 2:1.

So, I do not think Orig should NK tonight if we successfully lynch today.

If we mislynch, it gets dicey. What should Orig do in that situation? I think that comes down to how comfortable the town is with its suspicions. Is it worth re-introducing the town consensus list idea? If the town has a general consensus on the top 3 most suspicious players in the game, is it worth having Orig take a shot at one of those players, even in the event of a mislynch?

Depends...

In 5:2,
Mislynch = 4:2
MafNK = 3:2
-Orig NK town = 2:2
-Orig NK scum = 3:1

All the mafia has to do is NK Orig, and if he fails we lose. I would really not want Orig to NK in this scenario

In 4:2:1,
Mislynch = 3:2:1
MafNK town = 2:2:1
-Orig NK town = 1:2:1 LOSS Mafia win
-Orig NK scum = 2:1:1 Yuck
MafNK Orig = 3:2:0
-Orig NK town = 2:2:0 LOSS Mafia win
-Orig NK scum = 2:1:0 LYLO

Here, again, the best scenario is 2:1, but the alternatives are all worse than the No SKNK option. Again, Orig should not NK, since it runs the risk of a loss.

[Korlash]

Hey... quick point out... Perhaps the mafia didn't kill Orig last night because they knew he wouldn't kill because we spent half the day telling him not too... Perhaps it is best to not keep reiterating it quite as much today...

Just a thought...

[Gemelli]

Elias
Gem
Orig
Vollkan
AlyG

With Lucienne hovering in the top spot, but I could overlook lurkiness as "family emergency" and place her after Gem.

Thank you for posting that. Just to be clear, is this a prioritized list of Mafia suspects, or anti-town players?

* Also, in your Elias-vote post, you didn't respond to the point I raised on you: specifically, that you have made inconsistent explanations for why you didn't look at Dybeck until late in the game. Did you have anything to say in response?

No. i really cannot say anything but the truth. i was a little bit overwhelmed with Vollkan and my replacement reread. I know its sketchy but that is what happened, or how i remembering it happening...

It is sketchy, but you do get some points for neither trying to weasel out of it, nor for attacking me in response. Sadly I have to debit your account for calling me "Dybeck" in the quote.

I wasn't really going to hammer. I am not that much of an asshole.

Relieved to hear it The last thing this game needs is another Ryan.

Here, whilst it is true that Orig succeeding could cause us to win instantly, a misvig causes us to be at 3:1, where a mislynch will cause a loss, unless Orig survives in which case we can still win.

4:1 grants us the ability to mislynch (to 2:1) and then no lynch twice (3:1, 2:1).

I believe you meant that 4:1 grants us the ability to mislynch OR to no-lynch twice, correct? After a mislynch to 3:1, the mafia NK gets us to 2:1.

I can see the logic behind what you're saying. Essentially, if Orig makes a NK, he decides the fate of the town on his own. If he does not NK, the town gets to decide as a group.

The downside to going the no-lynch route, of course, is that it lets the Mafia decide which townies get to make the final vote that decides the game.

Basically, it seems clear that if we DO lynch mafia today, this will be the last opportunity for Orig to make a kill without potentially insta-losing the game for the town. The only person with the power to really decide whether it's worth the gamble is Orig ... whatever the town may want him to do, he's going to be the one sending the PM to the mod. I hope that he at least reads through this discussion very carefully, and asks questions if there are factors that he doesn't agree with or wants clarifications on.

And boy, do I hope that we don't really have two players AWOL at this point in the game

[Korlash]

Thank you for posting that. Just to be clear, is this a prioritized list of Mafia suspects, or anti-town players?

Like I said.. process of elimination leaves me with only two suspects, and so yeah. it is a list of "Mafia most likely" Lucienne is still an unknown, and so I have no idea where to put her yet...

It is sketchy, but you do get some points for neither trying to weasel out of it, nor for attacking me in response. Sadly I have to debit your account for calling me "Dybeck" in the quote.

What? prove he didn't say it

Seriously... I lost my Debit card.. will you take a check? I can pay you in Canadian monies... Heres a 100... that is about roughly.. 12 cents right...

And boy, do I hope that we don't really have two players AWOL at this point in the game

I count three... Lucienne, AlyG, and Orig...

[Streeflo]

Korlash, if your friend wants to do it, then I'm fine with that.

Tell him to PM me.

But remember, no talking outside the thread unless otherwise specified.

[vollkan]

I believe you meant that 4:1 grants us the ability to mislynch OR to no-lynch twice, correct? After a mislynch to 3:1, the mafia NK gets us to 2:1.

Yes. The "and" should be an "or".

I can see the logic behind what you're saying. Essentially, if Orig makes a NK, he decides the fate of the town on his own. If he does not NK, the town gets to decide as a group.

Exactly. When it gets down to it, I will always favour the reasoning of a majority over that of a single individual.

The downside to going the no-lynch route, of course, is that it lets the Mafia decide which townies get to make the final vote that decides the game.

Yes. To be clear, I am not saying we should No Lynch twice; but it is a valuable card to have up our sleeves.

Oh, and Elias (as well as Lucienne and AlyG if you still exist ) could you post a listing similar to the ones that Gem, Kor and myself have?

[Elias_the_thief]

I've never been a fan of using percentages. But here's my list, in order of likely scum (mafia):
1 Korlash
2 Gemelli
3 Lucienne (I dont have much of a read though)
4 Vollkan
5-6 AlyG (tracker) & Orig (SK or vig, probably SK)
7 Elias

[Gemelli]

Mod

, can we have a prod on Originality too? It's been 5 days since he posted to ms.net, and if he's still with us I'd like to see his scumdar listing as well. (I know that he may be out for the Thanksgiving holiday, but let's at least let him know that we'd like his input )

[originality]

I'd like to say I live. Having some LA on the holidays as Gemelli said, but sorry for being so long gone.



Getting down to business:

Lucienne and Elias- I am actually pretty balanced out with these two. Two most likely mafia.
But following not so far behind is Korlash. The reason he's not up there is I do understand the points against him, but I sort of have this feeling he has just a sort of confused posting style.

The arguments against Elias were golden. Korlash has always been rather sketchy, and the stuff reinforcing that today was not that bad aside from what I just mentioned. Lucienne has always been suspicious to me, but I recognize that I am getting sort of obsessed over this, so I'll take her out of the list top and tie her with Elias and accept the possibility that she might not be scum. I doubt it though.

If we lynch Lucienne today and she comes out town my choices are Elias and Korlash. No doubts.

Yea, I realise I'm not being that original aside from Gemelli not being on my list, but thats how it is.

About my vigkill tonight, I personally think it would be a good thing because I am not feeling very divided about my scum, and I think I'd have a good chance of hitting one. But the town's decision is the mandate for tonight, not mine. Unless you guys give me free reign. Whatever. I suggest everyone come to a consensus about what I should do. If you are still all divided about it in the end I'll just make my own choice, but I'm pretty positive I'll do it right. Yesterday was pretty clear what everyone wanted, right now not so much.


Again, my list:
Lucienne
Elias
Korlash

[Korlash]

Well all the lists look almost identical... If you substitute names that is...

Me personally, I am half and half on the Nk thing. Like I said I don't want to talk about it a lot cause I don't want to give the mafia too much to go on. But Orig, Are you saying you would Nk if we mislynched? You know if you are wrong we lose right?

[originality]

Forgot to mention, but yeah, if we misslynched I wouldn't, I'm aware of the consequences. I meant in case we hit scum.

[vollkan]

I thought I would try something new, rather than the area tag thing last time which was cluttered.

Suspects go down, and the "suspecters" go across. The total column is the sum of all the numbers. Obviously, the higher the number, the less suspected a person is.

*Korlash has said Lucienne is either top spot, or third (if he accepts the family emergency thing). For numbers-sake, I am going to give Lucienne a 2 from Korlash (the average of 1 and 3). If you have any major objections to this, I will redo the table.
*Elias gave both AlyG and Orig 5-6. I will give them each 5.5 for this table. Again, any objections and I will fix the table.
*Gem did not give any listing for Orig. I will just give him a 6, same as AlyG.

[mrow][col]

Elias_the_thief

[col]

Korlash

[col]

AlyG

[col]

Gemelli

[col]

Lucienne

[col]

vollkan

[col]

Originality

[col]

Totals

Elias_the_thief

[col] 7 [col] 1 [col] awol [col] 2 [col] awol [col] 2 [col] 2 [col]

14

Korlash

[col]1[col] 7 [col] awol [col] 1 [col] awol [col] 1 [col] 3[col]

13

AlyG

[col]5.5[col]6[col]7[col]6[col]awol[col]6[col]6[col]

36.5

Gemelli

[col]2[col]2[col]awol[col]7[col]awol[col]3[col]4[col]

18

Lucienne

[col]3[col]2[col]awol[col]3[col]7[col]4[col]1[col]

20

vollkan

[col]4[col]4[col]awol[col]5[col]awol[col]7[col]5[col]

25

Originality

[col]5.5[col]3[col]awol[col]6[col]awol[col]5[col]7[col]

26.5

Thus, in order:

Korlash
Elias
Gemelli
Lucienne
vollkan
Originality
AlyG

There are comments I wish to make on other aspects of this, but I can't really make them until we have a complete picture (*

Kicks AlyG and Lucienne

*)

Oh, and Korlash, could you please explain what happened to your case against me?

[vollkan]

Grr...double post:

Korlash, why do you rank Orig at #3?

[Gemelli]

Thanks, Orig, and glad to hear you're still with us.

So we've collected relative lists from the 5 most active players, and as Korlash said, there is a lot of similarity to look at. Because I am a statistics freak with no life to speak of, I weighted the lists together to see what the current town consensus seems to be. Here's how I did it:

* 7 points for each 1st-place vote, 6 points for each 2nd-place vote, etc.
* For Korlash's list, since positions 1-3 varied depending on where he decides to slot Lucienne, I split the difference between his 2 scenarios (e.g., he has Elias as either the 1st or 2nd place position, so I gave Elias 6.5 points for that)
* For Originality's list, I assumed that if the players beyond the three he listed were sequenced, they would be placed in an order approximating the average position of the rest of the town. (I'm the only one who was really affected by this, and it increased my scum rating, so I think it's a fair way to proceed.)

Here's what I came up with:

- Korlash: 27 points (average position: 2.6)
- Lucienne: 27 points (average position: 2.6)
- Elias: 25.5 points (average position: 2.9)
- Gemelli: 21.5 points (average position: 3.7)
- Vollkan: 14 points (average position: 5.2)
- AlyG: 14 points (average position: 5.2)
- Originality: 10 points (average position: 6)

Some other fun stat facts (none of which necessarily mean anything, I'm just looking for outliers and trends):

* Lucienne is tied with Korlash as the consensus scummiest player, despite having only one first-place vote (from Orig) -- this is because she was in everyone's top 3 except for Vollkan's, and because she has not provided her own scumdar (in which she would presumably rank herself last).
* Korlash was the only player to list Originality higher than the 6th position on his list (4th).
* Vollkan, AlyG, and Originality were not listed in anyone's top 3.
* Originality is the only player other than Korlash not to rate Korlash at the top.
* Elias is in everyone's top-2 lists except his own.

Raw Data:
========
Gemelli: Korlash (7), Elias (6), Lucienne (5), AlyG (4), Vollkan (3), Originality (2), Gemelli (1)

Korlash: Elias (6.5), Lucienne (6), Gemelli (5.5), Originality (4), Vollkan (3), AlyG (2), Korlash (1)

Vollkan: Korlash (7), Elias (6), Gemelli (5), Lucienne (4), AlyG (3), Originality (2), Vollkan (1)

Elias: Korlash (7), Gemelli (6), Lucienne (5), Vollkan (4), AlyG (3), Originality (2), Elias (1)

Originality: Lucienne (7), Elias (6), Korlash (5), Gemelli (assume 4), Vollkan (assume 3), AlyG (assume 2), Originality (assume 1)

Weighted Voting:

Korlash: 7+1+7+7+5 = 27
Lucienne: 5+6+4+5+7 = 27
Elias: 6+6.5+6+1+6 = 25.5
Gemelli: 1+5.5+5+6+4 = 21.5
Vollkan: 3+3+1+4+3 = 14
AlyG: 4+2+3+3+2 = 14
Originality: 2+4+2+2+1 = 11

[Gemelli]

Grr, crossposted with Vollkan. It looks like we're looking at this along similar lines; let me look at your summary and I'll post later tonight.

[Korlash]

Um... Well he is actually at 4 once you put Lucienne back in...

And because I tend to rank the Sk Higher then people I think are town. He is below all my unknowns but gets ranked higher then people I think are town.

Oh, and Korlash, could you please explain what happened to your case against me?

Do you mean my cases from yesterday? I started my reread and got bored. I don't think there is any reason to bring them back up. I would rather do what I had planned and just keep you in my suspicions so I can subsequently attack and analyze your future posts in greater detail. I don't believe I had a "Current" case on you other then saying I had "Past" cases on you.

I really see no point in making a "case" as you put it against you as it will seem even worse for me to just be attacking you. I also find it quite hard to believe you and Dybeck are both mafia together. So those two together give you the look of"Obvious town" in my mind.

As for the list thing... Man... People hate me don't they? T_T All I ever wanted was to be loved!!!!

[Gemelli]

OK, I've got to dash now, but here's my two cents:

What I like about your approach is that you've gone ahead and assumed that every player will vote themselves last on the list. The thing I *don't* like is that calculating the points directly from the positions is that last-place votes are given more weight than the first-place votes, which is why I reversed the point order.

The only other things I'd change are:

* My list should be: Korlash, Elias, Lucienne, AlyG, Vollkan, Originality, Gemelli
* For Korlash, I agree that Lucienne is a 2, but I don't understand why there are two 2s and no 5s. It'd be easier if he'd just commit to a single order, but still

[Korlash]

Fine put her at three then...

[Gemelli]

OK, thanks So your list is:

Elias
Gemelli
Lucienne
Orig
Vollkan
AlyG
Korlash

Correct?

[Korlash]

Naw...

Elias
Gem
Lucienne
Orig
Vollkan
Korlash
AlyG



Yeah... I have to be weird like that...

>.>
<.<

=D