Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame

[MariaR]

Not just you.

I'm having mixed feelings cause the first part of Scotty's post felt like BS but I agree with the BBT read

Tell me more. Mostly how these two thoughts jive with each other

Because I just dislike the first part of your post it rubs me the wrong way but the 2nd part I agree with so weird feeling.

[CloudKicker]

Havent outed a single read

can you please link me to where you have outed reads, I have trouble locating them when looking over your iso.

My initial post had more content than all of yours combined, that being said i also outed more reads today. I have very little experience at forum mafia and people keep saying hoopla might be joking/sarcastic bur i didnt like some of his posts -> no need to quote here it was mostly his comments about rarsk being and the bws on goodmorning


From scotty: (i messed up the format and too lazy to go back)

''Other scum reads, Cloud maybe? I can't decide on him. We'll put I am Innocent as a scum read for now just for lurking. Like what the hell dude?''

>I dont actually know if this is towny or considered anti-town for outing possible soft but, why using the word

Innocent

capitalized over town/townie/sided with the town ? And if this was a soft, wold you make yourself the goal to have interactions with me almost every single you have? like i feel you have 0 actuals reads on me.

-> And how am i lurking really, at the time you posted that i already had 3 posts as of today, one like 4h before yours and others players has posted less than i did

[Hoopla]

Alright, I think we squeezed as much out of the Raskol wagon as we could. Great job everyone!

More and more these days, I'm starting to believe that the first opening wagon that gets to L-1 or L-2 tends to be town a lot more often than random. Typically the less information in the game and the sooner it happens increases the likelihood of it being town. Why I think this is a trend is that at the beginning of the game any vote can be justified and there's no real information to go on, so there is more incentive for scum to plump existing wagons on town rather than their buddies. There's not really any incentive to distance heavily at the start of the game, because there's no punishment or scrutiny for voting town. Sure, scum still will vote each other from time to time, but there are more barriers along the way in order to achieve a L-1 or L-2 wagon on scum early, whereas when a town wagon emerges there's no hidden opposition ignoring it/voting it elsewhere -- everyone is considering it earnestly, as such, they tend to balloon quicker than scums.

To lynch scum, you need a lot of town zeroing in on the same wavelength or scum helping you. It's very hard to produce that perfect storm of town hivemindedness without genuine information that many players can agree on. And scum help is less likely early in the game, as they don't feel under pressure to distance themselves from each other -- convincing information pressures scum to distance. The reason for Raskol's wagon was decent, but I don't think scum helps us on this wagon very often (if Raskol is scum) and I don't think the reason is good enough to get five townies to vote him that often. It's easier combinatorially to assume Raskol is town and that scum have aided this wagon.

I don't have enough data to say for sure how pronounced this pattern is, but I think it exists and have been investigating it recently. Anyway, for a less impersonal, less statistically tell;

57 is a little ridiculous.

thatsthejoke.jpg

So Raskolnikov may have murdered an old woman with an axe but is still quite possibly Town, plus TwoFace. I think Scum probably gets the subtext more often than Town does here.

I agree with goodmorning's thought here. Raskol spent several paragraphs dissecting my posts oblivious to the nature of the jokester-y dialogue with goodmorning. I feel like that zeal comes from town curiosity thinking he's caught something, as opposed to scum manufacturing something.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: MariaR

[TwoFace]

My initial post had more content than all of yours combined,

Spoiler:

[MariaR]

Oh boy and so it begins this is gonna be fun!
Do you sr me Hoopia I sure hope so

[CloudKicker]

My initial post had more content than all of yours combined,

Spoiler:

Doesnt help me you read boi

[TwoFace]

I'm not worried about if people can read me. You say I haven't provided much content and that's correct. Everyone can see that. Why state the obvious?

Ever hear of the tortoise and the hare? I'm the tortoise.

[Hoopla]

Oh boy and so it begins this is gonna be fun!
Do you sr me Hoopia I sure hope so

That smells like fear to me!

[MariaR]

Oh boy and so it begins this is gonna be fun!
Do you sr me Hoopia I sure hope so

That smells like fear to me!

I don't fear anyone what I smell is a challenge!

[Hoopla]

I don't fear anyone what I smell is a challenge!

A solitary vote constitutes a challenge?

Or are you one step ahead of me and smelling the impending votes that are about to rain down upon you for your weird reaction?

[BlackVoid]

@Rask, where has Hoopla used associative tells?

@Hoopla, talk to me about Rask's case on you. Do you think he was accurate in accusing you of using associations?

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla, talk to me about Rask's case on you. Do you think he was accurate in accusing you of using associations?

Rask's case on me hinges on him believing that I strongly believed goodmorning was scum. I feel like it's obvious that wasn't the case, and the absurdity of Rask dissecting the situation so extensively yet missing the context is one of the reasons why he looks town. I've been seriousposting recently, so he probably thinks I'm town now and would like to humbly withdraw his case.

While you're here, how do you feel about getting in on the ground floor of this promising MariaR wagon?

[BlackVoid]

Why MariaR? If you think that scum aided the Rask wagon, why vote a player that didn't vote him?

[MariaR]

I don't fear anyone what I smell is a challenge!

A solitary vote constitutes a challenge?

Or are you one step ahead of me and smelling the impending votes that are about to rain down upon you for your weird reaction?

I dislike any votes on me.

[MariaR]

It's fun to ask why people sr me because it's so much more fun to prove them wrong ^_^

[Hoopla]

Why MariaR? If you think that scum aided the Rask wagon, why vote a player that didn't vote him?

She's a fidgety nervous scumbag already bracing for conflict from a solitary vote. Are you not curious to see what will happen if we give her some more?

The only alignment relating to that wagon I have conviction about is Rask's. If there's one scum on his wagon (the most likely scenario) -- that's still the same ratio of scum:town as off the wagon anyhow. Are you still suspicious of Rask?

[Hoopla]

I dislike any votes on me.

Then why didn't you say anything about Rask's page 2 vote on you?

[MariaR]

Why MariaR? If you think that scum aided the Rask wagon, why vote a player that didn't vote him?

She's a fidgety nervous scumbag already bracing for conflict from a solitary vote. Are you not curious to see what will happen if we give her some more?

The only alignment relating to that wagon I have conviction about is Rask's. If there's one scum on his wagon (the most likely scenario) -- that's still the same ratio of scum:town as off the wagon anyhow. Are you still suspicious of Rask?

Nervous me and me HA ohhh honey you are in for it if you wanna keep going

"Why not rasks vote"
Because it's Rask ^_^

[MariaR]

I think you sr me because you don't understand and that's okay when people don't understand things they try to shift blame to others you're no different

[CloudKicker]

Why MariaR? If you think that scum aided the Rask wagon, why vote a player that didn't vote him?

She's a fidgety nervous scumbag already bracing for conflict from a solitary vote. Are you not curious to see what will happen if we give her some more?

The only alignment relating to that wagon I have conviction about is Rask's. If there's one scum on his wagon (the most likely scenario) -- that's still the same ratio of scum:town as off the wagon anyhow. Are you still suspicious of Rask?

Nervous me and me HA ohhh honey you are in for it if you wanna keep going

"Why not rasks vote"
Because it's Rask ^_^

Can i be in for it if i keep going ;)

[Hoopla]

I think you sr me because you don't understand and that's okay when people don't understand things they try to shift blame to others you're no different

The fact you're continually insisting that I'm trying to soulread you implies that you know I'm town.

[MariaR]

Why MariaR? If you think that scum aided the Rask wagon, why vote a player that didn't vote him?

She's a fidgety nervous scumbag already bracing for conflict from a solitary vote. Are you not curious to see what will happen if we give her some more?

The only alignment relating to that wagon I have conviction about is Rask's. If there's one scum on his wagon (the most likely scenario) -- that's still the same ratio of scum:town as off the wagon anyhow. Are you still suspicious of Rask?

Nervous me and me HA ohhh honey you are in for it if you wanna keep going

"Why not rasks vote"
Because it's Rask ^_^

Can i be in for it if i keep going ;)

I s2g I will slap you x)

[BlackVoid]

Are you still suspicious of Rask?

Slightly. The way the wagon formed in a flash and dismantled just as fast piques me and I haven't figured out what it means yet.

I'm skeptical of the townreads on him. Rask's response to the wagon was a bit too textbook-ey for my taste. The *

okay, a wagon formed on me, now to dissect all the votes on it

* reaction looked like it was deliberate and prepared. If he thought you were scummy, he could have just pushed you without analyzing each vote on there including the neutral reads on Sotty7 and TwoFace. It came across like he was trying too hard to present himself as a good townie doing the right thing by "analyzing the wagon."

His actual case on you doesn't make sense to me. He says that you voted him based off of associatives with goodmorning. I re-read your posts and still can't find where you tried to tie Rask to GM so I don't know where that's coming from.

Rask, BBT, and Jaack are all working under the assumption that there is scum on the wagon that needs to be narrowed down. I actually agree with your previous post that there is just as much chance of there being scum off the wagon than on it so I don't get the pseudo-process-of-elimination. I'd prefer actual POE on the whole playerlist when the time comes.

BBT is another player I suspect. He is way too confident in Rask-town while barely even reading his posts. For example, BBT asked Rask who is scum on his wagon

after

Rask had already taken stances on every player on the wagon and singled out you (Hoopla) as the scummiest. The rest of Rask's posts have been a back-and-forth push on you. So, if BBT isn't even reading closely enough to know who Rask's suspicion's are, where's this super-confident townread coming from?

I don't have a read on MariaR yet. She along with Jaack, and Michel seem to be reading Rask's reaction to the wagon as town. On a cursory level I understand why but it's going to take more for me to nail down a read there one way or another.

[MariaR]

Are you still suspicious of Rask?

Slightly. The way the wagon formed in a flash and dismantled just as fast piques me and I haven't figured out what it means yet.

I'm skeptical of the townreads on him. Rask's response to the wagon was a bit too textbook-ey for my taste. The *

okay, a wagon formed on me, now to dissect all the votes on it

* reaction looked like it was deliberate and prepared. If he thought you were scummy, he could have just pushed you without analyzing each vote on there including the neutral reads on Sotty7 and TwoFace. It came across like he was trying too hard to present himself as a good townie doing the right thing by "analyzing the wagon."

His actual case on you doesn't make sense to me. He says that you voted him based off of associatives with goodmorning. I re-read your posts and still can't find where you tried to tie Rask to GM so I don't know where that's coming from.

Rask, BBT, and Jaack are all working under the assumption that there is scum on the wagon that needs to be narrowed down. I actually agree with your previous post that there is just as much chance of there being scum off the wagon than on it so I don't get the pseudo-process-of-elimination. I'd prefer actual POE on the whole playerlist when the time comes.

BBT is another player I suspect. He is way too confident in Rask-town while barely even reading his posts. For example, BBT asked Rask who is scum on his wagon

after

Rask had already taken stances on every player on the wagon and singled out you (Hoopla) as the scummiest. The rest of Rask's posts have been a back-and-forth push on you. So, if BBT isn't even reading closely enough to know who Rask's suspicion's are, where's this super-confident townread coming from?

I don't have a read on MariaR yet. She along with Jaack, and Michel seem to be reading Rask's reaction to the wagon as town. On a cursory level I understand why but it's going to take more for me to nail down a read there one way or another.

I tr rask not because a wagon happened but because the few posts made they seem like the town meta that I've played with Rask before. I don't know about the others

[BlackVoid]

Okay but just saying that it's his "town-meta" doesn't help me gauge his alignment or yours. Can you explain in a few sentences what his town-meta is like?