Holder of the Longest Continuous Weekly Mafiascum Post Record. 1 July 2012 - 16 Feb 2023
*It may be held by someone else if you discount the major downtime in 2012 and 2014, I'm not doing the research.
Then let's see how DarkLightA allocated his remaining coins.
THE FINAL TWO
DarkLightA
193
219
Harkonnen97
DIAMOND
52
1
SAPPHIRE
102
88
4
11
RUBY
192
EMERALD
1
OPAL
He's gone for an all-in approach, bidding almost his entire sum on the Emerald.
If Harkonnen97 predicted this and bid more than 192 on the Emerald, but saved at least two coins for the Opal, he will win. Has he done this?
Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.
"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
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gg. this was fun! The psychology of bids throughout the game was very interesting and I'm still trying to figure out if there's some optimal strategy for the gem bidding at the end. I'll play again if there's another game.
Retiring from LSG's and Mish Mash, for the most part. If you want to contact me, I suggest going outside and enjoying what the world has to offer, instead.
Some definite trends. Notably, the difference between refunded bids increased quite consistently with 2/round for much of the first half of the game. Also interesting was the points where this difference increased consistently with 1/round2. When this trend slowed down (points 14 and 15 on last graph), it almost screwed me: seeing it jump up again at 16 made me think it was somehow catching up to the past trend, and I expected it to rise about 8 in the round labelled 17. Instead it rose 11 and I got the refund. However it was just luck that I wasn't eliminated that round.
In terms of strategy I think the best thing is to aim for a safe bet. Expected refunded value + a few coins. The refunded amount isn't worth the potential elimination/tiebreak, especially if it's shared.
I was doing all that math in my head but I didn't realize how nice it looked all plotted out like that. I got screwed at 16 because I wasn't expecting more than a 5 coin jump lol
I think the reason the early rounds stayed at pretty even rises was because it seemed like many people weren't noticing/anticipating/playing the 2 coin per round increase. I was doing as you say and staying a couple coins above that because I kept expecting everyone to notice the steady increase and adjust play as a result. That never really happened until about half way through as your data shows.
I think meta will come into play and next game the trend will be to accelerate the bids earlier. I wouldn't be surprised to see a faster rise at the beginning/mid game and then a leveling off at some point as the bids can't really keep increasing exponentially if anyone wants any coins left over at the end. Assuming there isn't a change to the end game gem bidding scenario that is.
Some definite trends. Notably, the difference between refunded bids increased quite consistently with 2/round for much of the first half of the game. Also interesting was the points where this difference increased consistently with 1/round2. When this trend slowed down (points 14 and 15 on last graph), it almost screwed me: seeing it jump up again at 16 made me think it was somehow catching up to the past trend, and I expected it to rise about 8 in the round labelled 17. Instead it rose 11 and I got the refund. However it was just luck that I wasn't eliminated that round.
In terms of strategy I think the best thing is to aim for a safe bet. Expected refunded value + a few coins. The refunded amount isn't worth the potential elimination/tiebreak, especially if it's shared.
That was literally my pre-game assessment, and I even told people up front. Safe is better, even if you're last in coins, chances of refunding at 6 left are really high, and your refunds will be high too.
IDK.
Yes my Lord, but questions are dangerous, for they have answers.
13 heads and counting now, plurality is adaptive. If our experience might help you,