Mini 1840: Watch Dogs Blitz [Game Over]

[Not Chara]

1161, i don't like at all.
for this:
1178 and 1184. there's really no consideration that Gamma is inadequately explaining himself, or even that he genuinely feels that way. House has to explain

to

Gamma why his thoughts don't make sense, which, really, you'd only need to do if Gamma was town, not scum. then. 'i don't get why'. if you don't get it, why would Gamma do it as scum, either? this isn't hindsight is 20/20. i'm not saying players who misread Gamma are scum. Mathblade, i'm pretty sure is town, they were just really off-base.

but the way House was pushing it doesn't feel like someone who thought that player was scum. i think he was fine with lynching Gamma because he was justified in following his townread on Mathblade. 1378. it gives him reason to start the push. this is difficult to explain, because Gamma's logic

was

flawed... but there's no accounting for mistakes being made, it all boils down to blindly trusting Mathblade.

[Infinity 324]

House called back his post calling out lane's defensiveness to defend against dunn's accusation hat he was defending lane at every turn.

There's no way to guarantee your partner gets lynched unless you claim a guilty on them. All you have is one vote and a voice, people can be stubborn and hard to convince. Claiming a guilty is a huge step up. I

have

done a similar thing before, but the circumstances were very different. Mathblade would know a thing or two about power bussing, it's very different...

And ok about gazers

What do you think about the fact that everyon seems to townread your scumreads

PEdit: that's dumb play not scum. A lot of people in a lot of different places, including this game, have made cases and failed to consider scum motivation. (I don't remember seeing a lot of possible scum motivation when I was pushed, for example). But they're not all scum

[Creature]

Let's see what happens when I claim a guilty on my buddy:

As town, scum is very likely going to kill me because they don't want to have a high risk of being caught just to save a mislynch. As scum, town will worry about why I wasn't killed for the reason I said.

I also run the risk of being counterclaimed.

[Not Chara]

i know that's why House did it. i'm wondering why he felt the need to defend himself. did he feel threatened by Dunn? it's like it's just there to be a token showing of House questioning lane. but it's not real questioning, it's just calling lane out for something House didn't even believe made lane scum. the whole way it fell made it feel fabricated to me.

the thing with Creature's bus is that, you're right. it's definitely much stronger than simply going through with a vote on your scumbuddy. the motivation is the same. murder your scumbuddy -> achieve towncred.
going to go grab Creature's posts when i have time, because my point here is that Creature was giving me bad feelings during my reread, and i don't think getting a guilty on Stargazers (assuming they flip scum) overrides that in the least.

i can't speak for how a lot of players have failed to consider scum motivation. but House ignored both scum and scum motivation and was purely using a logical error as a reason for scum Gamma. that's about as shallow as one can get. logical =/= town, and House should know that. (the same with the reverse)

as for everyone townreading my scumreads: i'd have to check again. now that i'm caught up, i can properly have conversations about this. it's difficult to look at today's scumreads due to the guilty hanging over us.
actually, speaking of: i don't like Creature outing his guilty immediately. there was no need for that at all. it just makes the day that much more useless for analysis. not sure if that's alignment indicative for Creature because i can understand

why

someone would out their guilty quickly.

[Aquanim]

blehhhhh

That's a pretty silly gambit, but I don't have a feeling yet for how likely it is that Not Chara gets lynched tomorrow/soon if they don't do something dramatic. Or more importantly, what Not Chara believes about that.

For the record, I'm from Australia so my timezone and periods of activity will be different to most of you (which is more important in a blitz).

[lane0168]

Oh my God are you people still talking? Why? Everything you're talking about depends on stargazers flip. We don't know for sure what that is. So save it.

I'm annoyed not chara throws this gambit in there. Seems like a distraction. Let's get this day over with already

[Not Chara]

Let's see what happens when I claim a guilty on my buddy:

As town, scum is very likely going to kill me because they don't want to have a high risk of being caught just to save a mislynch. As scum, town will worry about why I wasn't killed for the reason I said.

I also run the risk of being counterclaimed.

i really can't understand what you're trying to say with your 'as town' comment. rephrase?

as for the second. highly townread players survive to late game often. but i don't want to expand on this right now, there's no need. especially if i'm incorrect about you.
and your last point is another that is better to not be talked about.

[Not Chara]

lane: i'll happily vote stargazers as soon as Aquanim catches up and gives thoughts. are you caught up?

[Not Chara]

oh, that was bad wording. i meant to ask if Aqua was caught up.

[Creature]

Scum won't leave a cop alive.

[Creature]

They could leave the cop for WIFOM purposes, but that'd suck if the cop guiltied the rest of the scum lol

[Infinity 324]

ISOd gamma again

In two whole minutes?

Puh-leez

No, I started it earlier and finished it in between posting

Alrighty then, perhaps you can explain something, since he couldn't.

Why did he upgrade his neutral read on Guilty when I called him out for trusting a neutral read to vouch for a town read?

Even when he upgraded his read, it was only to town lean... But he put me at hard town based on a newly (after the fact) minted town

lean

's word?

Perhaps you can help me understand how that could come from a mindset other than manipulation.

As for the hard town vs. town lean thing, I already explain that. Town lean means percentage wise, a very high chance to be town, and therefore a very high chance to be able to trust him on the read. If guilty is scum, you're not necessarily scum, but if guilty is town you are more likely to be town. So it makes sense for you to go up in his reads regardless

Precisely, which is why I should not have been considered hard town based on a town lean's word unless he already knew Guilty actually IS town!

But percentage wise, most people are probably town so your chance of being town overall goes up

Oh so by your reasoning, everybody in the game could be town lean, right?

You are bending over backwards to excuse his bullshit.

Not I'm not

If you want me to do the math I will

If you going up in his reads depends on guilty being town, you still go up in his reads,

but by slightly less

Okay sport.

final thought though: House town-told in a message he sent me, I don't think he'd be a good lynch

I like your nathan fielder image
Also
You're gonna have to do better than that, man what

I believe him, House is officially p much as strong a townread as Lane.

At the time of this post, Guilty was a neutral and Lane was his only hard town read.

He took a neutral read's word and placed me WAY ABOVE neutral.

When he upgraded Guilty to town lean, that's still BELOW what he moved me to.


EXPLAIN THAT AWAY

This is a bad argument but I think house believed it

[Infinity 324]

Oh my God are you people still talking? Why? Everything you're talking about depends on stargazers flip. We don't know for sure what that is. So save it.

I'm annoyed not chara throws this gambit in there. Seems like a distraction. Let's get this day over with already

Gazers claimed scum pretty much

[Aquanim]

lane: i'll happily vote stargazers as soon as Aquanim catches up and gives thoughts. are you caught up?

I'm not caught up yet, should be in under 12 hours.

[Not Chara]

i don't. he took that one point and compounded it.
if you have House as town, explain why, or quote where you explain?

and talk to me about your other scumreads. grapevine, Panther, Expedience?

[Not Chara]

Aquanim. what didn't you like about my gambit with Stargazers and Infinity?
though, i wouldn't call it a gambit. gambits need to be risky.

[Infinity 324]

If you want me to quote a ton of posts where people failed to consider scum motivation in this game, I'll do it. It's a very common mistake to make as town. There's a reason why my sig has to exist.

House town is a really strong gut feeling I guess. I might try to quote some posts that stuck out to me

Most of my scumreads are PoE. Every time varsoon talks it makes my gut squirm and it doesn't feel like he's gamesolving at all. But grapes looks town to me. Panther is because he kept arguing to lynch gazers after it was clear they were being lynched and because...he's not doing as much as I think he should given how he seems to me as a player. And expedience I think is town tbh but PoE. Now that I went over it again I kinda want to lynch grapevine...it feels like grapes may have been trying to buddy me

I hate to admit it but...your gambit looks town. And I don't want to have to go over this game once again but I really should

[Aquanim]

Aquanim. what didn't you like about my gambit with Stargazers and Infinity?
though, i wouldn't call it a gambit. gambits need to be risky.

Perhaps 'stunt' is a better description than 'gambit'. In either case, the most likely reason I can think of as to why you would do that as scum is because you strongly believed you would be lynched otherwise.

I don't know what you expected to get out of it, because it's inherently unbelievable. A Traitor would not claim to all of the scumteam at once, which I think any of the three players you PMd would work out, so it's not like you were going to get a scum-claim in reply.

(That being said, I don't see an obvious reason why you would be less likely to think that through if you were mafia, as opposed to town.)

[Not Chara]

all of the scumteam at once?
how would these players know what i messaged to the others?
i'm pretty sure Infinity was the only player online.

it's possible Stargazers wrote a post in the scum PT about it, but... Infinity's reply was nearly immediate. i doubt he knew what i said to you and Stargazers. i'm very comfortable with that townread. i got good use out of it for that.

so, unless you're scumclaiming, (i mean, it's possible... haha) Stargazers is the only scum player i claimed to.
what i'm wondering is why, in 2379, you didn't say 'Chara claimed traitor to me as well'? did you assume that the rest of the thread would just figure it out?

[Not Chara]

If you want me to quote a ton of posts where people failed to consider scum motivation in this game, I'll do it. It's a very common mistake to make as town. There's a reason why my sig has to exist.

House town is a really strong gut feeling I guess. I might try to quote some posts that stuck out to me

Most of my scumreads are PoE. Every time varsoon talks it makes my gut squirm and it doesn't feel like he's gamesolving at all. But grapes looks town to me. Panther is because he kept arguing to lynch gazers after it was clear they were being lynched and because...he's not doing as much as I think he should given how he seems to me as a player. And expedience I think is town tbh but PoE. Now that I went over it again I kinda want to lynch grapevine...it feels like grapes may have been trying to buddy me

I hate to admit it but...your gambit looks town. And I don't want to have to go over this game once again but I really should

i thought i posted a response to this, but i guess i didn't.

i'd like to see you quote some town House posts, yes.
i'll take another look at Grapevine and Panther.

[Not Chara]

read Grapevine. i like them.
it actually made me like Expedience less rather than increase my scumread on Grapevine. why doesn't Varsoon feel like he's trying to gamesolve?

[SlySly]

it's possible Stargazers wrote a post in the scum PT about it

Why don't you check it right quick and let us know for sure?!

Stargazers is the only scum player i claimed to.

Go ahead and claim the rest of your buddies, too.

[Dunnstral]

Nice potshots but why do you think they're scum?

Actually can we end this day already instead of faffing about

[Aquanim]

all of the scumteam at once?
how would these players know what i messaged to the others?
i'm pretty sure Infinity was the only player online.

it's possible Stargazers wrote a post in the scum PT about it, but... Infinity's reply was nearly immediate. i doubt he knew what i said to you and Stargazers. i'm very comfortable with that townread. i got good use out of it for that.

so, unless you're scumclaiming, (i mean, it's possible... haha) Stargazers is the only scum player i claimed to.
what i'm wondering is why, in 2379, you didn't say 'Chara claimed traitor to me as well'? did you assume that the rest of the thread would just figure it out?

I suppose the other two messages except the ones each of us received could have been blinds, as far as any one of the three players you sent a message to knew at the time.

I agree that Infinity would have to be a pretty quick-thinking scum player to react as he did that quickly.

(And yes, I assumed that the thread would figure it out. I thought that it was implied earlier, maybe I just read what I already knew into it.)

[Aquanim]

...
Actually can we end this day already instead of faffing about

I'm up-to-date enough to approve the Stargazers lynch. Besides the PR stuff, a town player does not post #2292 and the following posts on that page. Unless somebody has something they want to ask me, I don't think further conversation today is very useful.