Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Gemelli]

OK, so you are less certain about your own alignment than AlyG's. Gotcha. I'm not here to judge you; I'm just the tabulator. And tabulate I will!

Anyway, factoring this latest data into the mix, the inverse-weighted point totals for the players look like this (where X is an unknown score from AlyG, Y is an unknown score from Lucienne, and we assume that each of them puts themselves last, since they aren't NUTS):

Korlash: 7+2+7+7+X+5+Y = 28+X+Y
Elias: 6+7+6+1+X+6+Y = 26+X+Y
Lucienne: 5+5+4+5+X+7+1 = 27+X
Gemellli: 1+6+5+6+X+4+Y = 22+X+Y
Vollkan: 3+3+1+4+X+3+Y = 14+X+Y
AlyG: 4+1+3+3+1+2+Y = 14+Y
Originality: 2+4+2+2+X+1+Y = 11+X+Y

If we assign the middle-of-the-road value 4 for both X and Y, we get:

Korlash: 36
Elias: 34
Lucienne: 31
Gemellli: 30
Vollkan: 22
Originality: 19
AlyG: 18

Still seeing general agreement among the top four candidates, with Korlash/Elias in the first tier and Lucienne/Gemelli in the second.

What does this all mean? Sadly, I screwed up my back about 2 hours ago and the muscle relaxants are finally kicking in, so I'm going to have to sleep on it.

V/LA over the next 3-4 days, but I'll try to chime in when I can.

[Korlash]

Ahh you too huh? i had to single handedly put th truck away at work today. No different then any other delivery day other then it came a day early... So we were short staffed.. and i had to put it away, invoice it, AND prep stuff.. I know how you feel. My back is killing me.... Luckily all I have to do is make food tomorrow... Let's see... Instructions.. take out of box, put directly in toilet... What? o.O

[vollkan]

===
I typed this about 3 hours ago, but forgot to post. Fortunately, I had it copied
===

What I like about your approach is that you've gone ahead and assumed that every player will vote themselves last on the list. The thing I *don't* like is that calculating the points directly from the positions is that last-place votes are given more weight than the first-place votes, which is why I reversed the point order.

1) I actually am now going to scrap the automatic last vote for self, because it is meaningless and just boosts every figure by 7
2) Calculating from the positions is no different to what you are doing. It's just that my system has the highest scoring people being the least suspect. In your system, the numbers are just inverted, it means the same thing.

The big difference in our lists appears to be regarding Lucienne.

Seeing as Korlash has now put Lucienne at number 3, and Gemelli has clarified his order for me (your initial list did not include Orig).

Here is the new table:

[mrow][col]

Elias_the_thief

[col]

Korlash

[col]

AlyG

[col]

Gemelli

[col]

Lucienne

[col]

vollkan

[col]

Originality

[col]

Totals

Elias_the_thief

[col] - [col] 1 [col] awol [col] 2 [col] awol [col] 2 [col] 2 [col]

7

Korlash

[col]1[col] - [col] awol [col] 1 [col] awol [col] 1 [col] 3[col]

6

AlyG

[col]5.5[col]6[col]-[col]4[col]awol[col]6[col]6[col]

27.5

Gemelli

[col]2[col]2[col]awol[col]-[col]awol[col]3[col]4[col]

11

Lucienne

[col]3[col]3[col]awol[col]3[col]-[col]4[col]1[col]

14

vollkan

[col]4[col]5[col]awol[col]5[col]awol[col]-[col]5[col]

19

Originality

[col]5.5[col]4[col]awol[col]6[col]awol[col]5[col]-[col]

20.5

Again, in order

Korlash - 6
Elias - 7
Gemelli - 11
Lucienne - 14
Vollkan - 19
Originality - 20.5
AlyG - 27.5

Observations:
* Interesting that the two closest people are also the two highest suspected: Korlash (6 points) and Elias (7 points).
* My top 3 aligns exactly to the collective top 3. I am the only person for which this phenomenon occurs.

Some questions for people:
1) @ Elias: Why does Gemelli merit a number 2 position on your list, and why do you find Korlash more suspicious?
2) @ Gemelli: Why does Elias merit a number 2 position on your list, and why do you find Korlash more suspicious?
3) @ Korlash: Why do you suspect Elias and Gemelli (in that order) and do you think they are likely scumbuddies
4) @ Orig: Why do you suspect Lucienne so highly?
5) @ Lucienne and AlyG: Could you PLEASE post a list?!?!?

[vollkan]

Okay.

Now, I notice my list differs from Gemelli's. I think the reason for this is that Gemelli has included each person's view of themself, which I decided to drop because it is meaningless (except in the strange case of Korlash...) and also because I have not just assigned 4 for X and Y.

[Elias_the_thief]

Gemelli merits the number two spot in an absense of anyone better, mainly. AlyG and orig can be written off, I think. With Korlash my number one, that leaves Vollkan, Lucienne, and Gemelli. Lucienne is really hard to get a read on, but I didnt find anything particularly scummy about her few posts. Between Vollkan and Gemelli, Gemelli is the obvious choice. Also, coupled with the fact that she claims the case against me and against Korlash are comparable, when the main beef on me is what Dybeck did, and against Korlash is what Dybeck did, his own wierd behavior, and the behavior of Oman. I think if Korlash comes up scum, Gemelli is pretty certainly our scum.

[Korlash]

Well I suspect Elias over Gem because I think we can tell a lot more about Gem's alignment if we lynch Elias, then we can Elias's alignment if we lynch Gem. I could be wrong of course and if my thinking is flawed let me know. I explain it in greater detail later on.

As for scum buddies, yeah. Like I said for the millonethic time... They are the only two people I am left with after you told me to write Lucenne off as vanilla. So as of this second they HAVE to be the scum pair in my mind. But... I still don't think Lucienne is automatically vanilla cause it is all just speculation about what Shat.ed may or may not have implied at times.

Also, I think if Elias turns out scum, Gem is most likely his buddy. My big reasoning here: Earlier today Gem seemed to be afraid we were all going to jump on him for Advocating Dybeck. But after he sees Vollkan going after Elias, he goes after him hard, then when Vollkan switches to me, he quickly drops Elias and comes after me hard too, even places a vote on me. To me, this makes me think he had decided to bus his partner today in order to keep pressure off himself, then he switched to me because I was an easy town lynch. However, if Elias turns out town I am left at a crossroads. If that is the case then I can see Gem doing the same Self-Preservation thing I am known for. And in order to keep the discussion off himself he went along with the group. And if that is the case I am left with Lucienne. The only person I can even think to tie in with Lucienne is Orig and I know how bad that would blow over for me.

In short. I feel if we find out Elias's alignment it will give me at least a better scope on Lucienne. At the same time I feel if I am lynched then we are in the same exact place tomorrow. Suspecting Elias Gem and Lucienne.

Well that's my twelve cents...

[Streeflo]

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone still alive on the plane!

[Korlash]

yeah you too pilot!

[Gemelli]

2) Calculating from the positions is no different to what you are doing. It's just that my system has the highest scoring people being the least suspect. In your system, the numbers are just inverted, it means the same thing.

It only means the same thing when you look at a single list isolated from the others. When you aggregate the lists together, in your system each vote for "most suspicious player" has significantly less weight than a vote for "least suspicious player." That's what accounts for the differences in our lists; try calculating each value in your grid as 8-X (where X is the placement in a player's list) instead of X and see what happens. Whether you give each player a single extra point or not, and whether you add 0, 4 or any arbitrary number to each player's totals to represent AlyG's and Lucienne's input, does not really affect the sequence at all.

IMHO the higher positions in people's lists are what matters most, not the lower ones, which is why I chose the higher-numbers-are-scummier weighting approach. It's a minor difference in methodology, but I think an important one as it has a visible impact in the middle of the sequence.

2) @ Gemelli: Why does Elias merit a number 2 position on your list, and why do you find Korlash more suspicious?

The two are pretty much neck and neck in my opinion. Korlash gets the edge due to the problems I've discussed previously with Oman's play, and because his explanation for why he failed to mention Dybeck until late in D2 does not match with the facts as laid out in this thread. It's to Korlash's credit that he didn't try to justify this discrepancy, but called it a mistake. However, for posting something provably untrue, he gets my top spot and my vote.

The cases against Elias (yours and mine) haven't been disproved so much as minimized as "possible but certainly not definite." I found Elias's explanations to be overly contentious/defensive in tone, and I'm a little bugged that the amount of content he posts to our game seems to be directly proportional to the amount of suspicion that he's under.

And you didn't ask, but Lucienne gets my 3rd spot by process of elimination. I am inclined to believe AlyG's claim, I don't think you are Mafia, and Originality is most likely either the Vig or an SK.

Korlash, no time to reply to your scumbuddy hypotheses tonight, but I'll try to get to it at some point this weekend.

And yes, happy Thanksgiving to those of you in the States, or who are grateful for the good things in your life, wherever you are

[Elias_the_thief]

Well, I'm always defensive. Check my other games. As for the content thing, I'm not willing to post much because im pretty sure Korlash is scum, and the only thing prompting me to post more is defense. I will probably vote kor tomorrow.

[Korlash]

Why not vote me now? seems if you are so sure I am scum that you don't feel the need to post, you might as well make it official and vote me.

[vollkan]

Gemelli merits the number two spot in an absense of anyone better, mainly. AlyG and orig can be written off, I think. With Korlash my number one, that leaves Vollkan, Lucienne, and Gemelli. Lucienne is really hard to get a read on, but I didnt find anything particularly scummy about her few posts. Between Vollkan and Gemelli, Gemelli is the obvious choice. Also, coupled with the fact that she claims the case against me and against Korlash are comparable, when the main beef on me is what Dybeck did, and against Korlash is what Dybeck did, his own wierd behavior, and the behavior of Oman. I think if Korlash comes up scum, Gemelli is pretty certainly our scum.

You didn't answer the second part of my question: Why do you think Korlash is scummier than Gemelli?

I have more comment below.

The two are pretty much neck and neck in my opinion. Korlash gets the edge due to the problems I've discussed previously with Oman's play, and because his explanation for why he failed to mention Dybeck until late in D2 does not match with the facts as laid out in this thread. It's to Korlash's credit that he didn't try to justify this discrepancy, but called it a mistake. However, for posting something provably untrue, he gets my top spot and my vote.

The cases against Elias (yours and mine) haven't been disproved so much as minimized as "possible but certainly not definite." I found Elias's explanations to be overly contentious/defensive in tone, and I'm a little bugged that the amount of content he posts to our game seems to be directly proportional to the amount of suspicion that he's under.

And you didn't ask, but Lucienne gets my 3rd spot by process of elimination. I am inclined to believe AlyG's claim, I don't think you are Mafia, and Originality is most likely either the Vig or an SK.

Korlash, no time to reply to your scumbuddy hypotheses tonight, but I'll try to get to it at some point this weekend.

What problems with Oman's play? List them for me please.

Also, it's

very

interesting that you insert a positive comment about Korlash ("It's to his credit..." and a negative comment about Elias ("...overly contentious/defensive...")

As for scum buddies, yeah. Like I said for the millonethic time... They are the only two people I am left with after you told me to write Lucenne off as vanilla. So as of this second they HAVE to be the scum pair in my mind. But... I still don't think Lucienne is automatically vanilla cause it is all just speculation about what Shat.ed may or may not have implied at times.

I didn't tell you to write Lucienne off.

Korlash, assuming Lucienne is vanilla town (I know that this is not necessarily the case), who are your most likely scum?

It was just to see how you would reason in that scenario, in that you said Elias and Gem were scum (and now you have confirmed that the order is #1 Elias, #2 Gem).

Also, I think if Elias turns out scum, Gem is most likely his buddy. My big reasoning here: Earlier today Gem seemed to be afraid we were all going to jump on him for Advocating Dybeck. But after he sees Vollkan going after Elias, he goes after him hard, then when Vollkan switches to me, he quickly drops Elias and comes after me hard too, even places a vote on me. To me, this makes me think he had decided to bus his partner today in order to keep pressure off himself, then he switched to me because I was an easy town lynch. However, if Elias turns out town I am left at a crossroads. If that is the case then I can see Gem doing the same Self-Preservation thing I am known for. And in order to keep the discussion off himself he went along with the group. And if that is the case I am left with Lucienne. The only person I can even think to tie in with Lucienne is Orig and I know how bad that would blow over for me.

Very good. I am glad you noticed this also. This was what I was referring to bey

There are comments I wish to make on other aspects of this, but I can't really make them until we have a complete picture

(*Kicks AlyG and Lucienne*)

Now, I'm utterly gobsmacked by this, but Krap Logik has actually stumbled upon an excellent point.

This is the part where I give my extra comments that I referred to above. So listen up.

Are Gemelli and Elias our Remaining Scum?

I opened this day by looking at dybeck connexions. Out of that, I found Gemelli and Elias to be the most suspect, followed by Lucienne (

@Gemelli: Why did Lucienne drop back to number 3?

). Now, Elias did as Elias does best and neutralised it by dismissing it as WIFOM, the only sort of defence possible against the sort of theorising I was making. I then made my case against Elias personally in 1390.

At this point Gemelli enters, being very clear that he thinks "Elias and Lucienne" are the most likely suspects. The significant point about that is that it is not Elias in isolation, and he makes no indication as to who is scummier.

Then we have Elias's rebuttal where he offered his explanations for my problems. We've debated this ad nauseum, but the fundamental thing I note from reading is that none of my points were demonstrably "wrong", it was simply that Elias usually disputed my interpretation of things, which is always going to be disputable in a game of mafia. (I think that is what makes Elias so good at defence, in that he is able to reduce issues to points that cannot be debated).

In 1397, Korlash says he doesn't "fully understand" my Elias case, and promises to reread and comment. He continues this in 1415, saying he either disagrees with my points, or agrees with Elias. Korlash seems influenced by his belief that I make too many assumptions.

In 1424, Gemelli returns and presents a rather scathing attack on Elias (going into caps-lock fury at one point). Elias is his top suspect, followed by Lucienne and THEN Korlash.

In 1425, Korlash:

Well if you both insist it then there has to be something on this Elias thing... He honestly never suspected him at all? That could change a few things...

Then again it could have been him trying to buddy up with someone... Dang I guess I will look over this PBPA thing you got and check it out myself...

Also let's say Elias is the second scum, who would most likely be the third then?

This post is rather scummy. Korlash suggests there may be something to the case, purely because Gemelli has supported it. Moreover, he moves to immediately wonder at who the next most likely scum is.

1431 is by Gemelli and he decides to review dybeck/Korlash. In 1444, he provides some evidence for Elias/Korlash

1460 by Gemelli will be quoted due to some interesting language choices.

Elias, since we're down to just seven players in the game, each of us is naturally coming under closer scrutiny from the others.

Believe it or not, I do find it plausible that you are pro-town and finding yourself in a bad situation. However, I think that if you ARE in that situation,

1) you would serve the town (and yourself)

best by advancing theories on who the remaining scum are. So far, you've defended yourself -- all well and good, but tell us,

2) who SHOULD we be focusing on,

if not you? If you were to place the rest of us in a scummiest-to-towniest list, what would the order be, and why?

1) The town is separate from Elias.
2) This looks like a plea for direction

Then, in 1463, we see Elias raise Korlash as the best choice.

Gemelli and Elias have a debate around 1475

Bolded edits are by vollkan

Does it bother you that the "evidence" towards me being with Dybeck depends entirely on wifom interpretation, and could mean entirely the opposite of the way Vollkan is interpreting it? (pretty likely, because I'm town). I'm starting to think you're our third scum. I've already presented evidence as to Korlash having ties to Dy, though nothing compared to what Vollkan did. Second, I'm pretty sure we're in LYLO here *at the very least, potentially). Are you really going to trust the game deciding lynch on the fact that theres nothing better then a weak connection case?

Appealing to emotion by raising the fear of a possible (improbable) LYLO, and by making a veiled threat to go after me as scum, does nothing to bolster your argument, nor does it affect my current perception of you. Let's move on.

In effect, Gemelli makes an attack here, but also says it does nothing to alter his perception. Kid-gloving, in other words.

Most of my suspicion against you boils down to the single key point we've been talking about since D3 started: Dybeck treated you differently than every single player remaining in the game. I think this is notable.

So far, what I've seen in response is conjecture on the other side of the fence: he COULD have been doing this as an elaborate plot to frame you. This is true. But it's just as plausible to me that he simply failed to bus you until he had already committed to locking in on Originality, at which point it was too late for him to switch gears without dooming himself.

I don't think this is an ironclad argument either way. What I'm saying is that it does create a serious level of suspicion in my mind that you may be mafia. While I agree that

Korlash's behavior does inspire suspicion, I would not go so far as to say that the case against him is markedly stronger than the case against you.

Both could currently be described as "weak connection cases" at this point. Fortunately, we're not under a deadline and there's plenty of time left to talk turkey.

Note: Gemelli thinks the case against Korlash on Korlash's BEHAVIOUR is not markedly stronger than that on Elias. He calls them both "weak connexion cases".

One point that we haven't really discussed: you took the time to analyze and respond to Vollkan's consolidated case against Dybeck at some length. But you needed to be prompted to look at shaft.ed's summary case against Oman, and did not look at the additional points I raised vs. Oman at all (though you said you were going to). Again, one interpretation of this would be that you had a vested interest in poking holes in the Dybeck case, but didn't see any reason to interfere with the case against Oman. What is your side of the story there?

A few side points for other players ...

Korlash:

In response to post 1453, I don't think anyone is suggesting that the mafia has both a Godfather AND a roleblocker. I was simply pointing out that there is a possibility that one of those roles exists on the mafia side.

All:

I agree with Originality's point that shaft.ed had no clear reason to investigate Lucienne N1, based on either his D1 posts or the town consensus on the most suspicious players. I also agree that his behavior suggests that if he got an innocent result on anyone, it was Vollkan. But applying the same logic, why would he have investigated Vollkan's predecessor? Can we deduce anything about who shaft.ed might have investigated based on his D1 posts? (I do think it's safe to assume that whoever he investigated, the result came back innocent.)

In 1484, Gem attacks Korlash for the power role stuff.

1487, Elias continues the debate with Gem and then also adds to the case on Korlash. This debate continues for some posts, and doesn't actually move anywhere vote/FoS-wise.

Now, skipping right to the current stuff: I am seeing a pseudo-FriendOfScum tell in regards to Gemelli and Elias having Korlash at number 1 and each other at number 2. This is only compounded upon by Elias's latest thing talking about how if Korlash is scum, Elias is also.

However, and this is my point of conflict, the case against Korlash is very good.

Thus, I am kind of stuck between these as my two most likely scum pairs:

Korlash/Lucienne
Gemelli/Elias

[Elias_the_thief]

Why do you think that the Korlash/Gemelli case is not a strong possibility?

I have Gemelli as my second because I feel the case on Korlash is stronger. If I can;t go back and form my own reasons for thinking someone is scummy this late in the game, I probably wont have them top of list. Anyways, if me and Gemelli both have eachother as number two, why should you be concerned with our link? Tomorrow one of us would be lynched anyways, so you'd get scum.

[Korlash]

I'm sorry. I don;t have a lot of time right now... I really feel like I am going to pass out or throw up or something... blarg...

Quick questions:
1) "This was what I was referring to by*" < corrected right? It took me forever to figure out what you meant here. Just making sure I'm not mistaken...

2)

Now, I'm utterly gobsmacked by this, but Krap Logik has actually stumbled upon an excellent point.

.. gee... That kinda makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside...

I'll see about commenting on the rest tomorrow... I have to be up early and go into work.. man it will be hell... Stupid early sales crap... *banghead*

[Korlash]

Anyways, if me and Gemelli both have eachother as number two, why should you be concerned with our link? Tomorrow one of us would be lynched anyways, so you'd get scum.

Perhaps... But you never know with the way Oig has been talking.. Let's say you and Gem are scum together. You guys lynch me, Mafia NK lets say Orig, he NKs Lucienne... Town loses. So we would not have a tomorrow. Personally I would very much like to hit scum today.

although I am not so worried about Orig NKing tonight actually. But you can never say for sure what someone will do right.


And that is my take on it...

[Elias_the_thief]

i dont think orig would nk tonight, because it would mean his loss as well.

[Lucienne]

I am thinking of the town here. If I am lynched, then that is one more town down. This gives Orig a greater incentive to NK.

Why does it give orig a greater incentive to NK?

No, the last time I made a scum list based solely on my person feelings Vollkan rammed it down my throat. Sure, I agree that is a great form of scum hunting and what not. But because of that I refuse to post any scumdar that implies vote/lynch candidates until I actually have reasons for it.

You mean you have

no

suspicions? (I'm not sure what you mean here - you seem to say you have no reasons here, yet later you say you need to hear from me - which is it?)

Korlash was really saving his butt with the Elias vote. Also - process of elimination - useful or a failure?

[Lucienne]

Don't know why that happened... (my post)

Anyway, my scumlist:

List:

1.Korlash (Mainly through what I remember of Oman; but his behaviour is odd too - particularly his lack of suspicions, and "writing off" of people.
2. Elias (I really need to re-read, but I remember getting bad vibes, which have returned)
3. Gemelli (I didn't like Dr. B, but I actually find Gemelli quite pro-town. Nonetheless, Dr. B's actions were just odd).
4. vollkan (I find him the most pro-town of the non-claimed, since he always seems logical and pointed in what he has to say, which I often agree with, which makes me confident that we think the same.)
5. Orig (I'm still wary - he could be trying to pacify us... he could be the SK or Mafia, but it does look more and more likely that he is the vig).
6. AlyG (most cleared at this point)

Sorry for the delay! I'll try and re-read Elias (who is very high up on the list, and whom I'm getting bad vibes from).

[Korlash]

Why does it give orig a greater incentive to NK?

Like I said You can never tell for sure what someone will do. For all I know Orig could be the gambling type who would rather take a chance then be put at LYLO tomorrow. I admit "Greater Incentive" is not the exact right wording for this.

You mean you have no suspicions?

No, I mean if I made a list I would do it based soley off my suspicions and have no valid reasons behind it. Then I would have Vollkan over here going "Why did you rank me here, her here and him here? Answer now or I will vote you!" and I'll be like "WTF man..."

*Complete dramatization*

>.>
<.<

Korlash was really saving his butt with the Elias vote. Also - process of elimination - useful or a failure?

Pretty much. I still think we will find out more by Elias's affiliation then my own. But I guess I am a bit Biased here aren't I? XD

Process of Elimination is a failure as in order for it to work I had to count you in at vanilla.

and "writing off" of people.

The only people I have wrote off are you and Vollkan. Almost everyone else seems to have done the same to Vollkan and I was only giving you the benefit of the doubt until you posted more.

Anyways off to work...

[vollkan]

Why do you think that the Korlash/Gemelli case is not a strong possibility?

I do think it is a strong possibility, it just isn't in my top 2.

Basically, the behaviour I am trying to understand is Gemelli suspecting:
#1 Elias
#2 Lucienne
#3 Korlash

And then having this somehow change to Korlash, whom now both Elias and Gemelli suspect. Now, I grant you that Gemelli's behaviour in attacking and voting Korlash could very well be bussing, however I would find bussing of that intensity rather odd when neither Korlash nor Gemelli was under any imminent threat. I mean, Gemelli was in the midst of a debate with Elias and then he FoSes Korlash in one post and then changes this to a vote for Korlash (not with a thoroughly-explained vote either) in the very next post. My initial thought was that it was being used for some research purpose, but that is obviously not the case given the time that has elapsed.

The only substantial intermediate change was my attacking Korlash in 1514. However, it was hardly such that I could envisage scumGemelli dropping his case on Elias to roll his partner.

Lucienne's latest is something else I need to factor in to my considerations, but I will wait to see how things unfold with her reading.

I have Gemelli as my second because I feel the case on Korlash is stronger. If I can;t go back and form my own reasons for thinking someone is scummy this late in the game, I probably wont have them top of list. Anyways, if me and Gemelli both have eachother as number two, why should you be concerned with our link? Tomorrow one of us would be lynched anyways, so you'd get scum.

If Korlash is town and is lynched today, that makes us open D4 at 3:2 (bcs). On the off-chance that my theory is wrong in that scenario, then we would lose outright by mislynching. That's why I am concerned.

Anyway, with Lucienne's arrival, I update the table, and I will use Gemelli's "8-X" mode of calculating scores.

[mrow][col]

Elias_the_thief

[col]

Korlash

[col]

AlyG

[col]

Gemelli

[col]

Lucienne

[col]

vollkan

[col]

Originality

[col]

Score

Elias_the_thief

[col] - [col] 1 [col] awol [col] 2 [col] 2 [col] 2 [col] 2 [col]

31

Korlash

[col]1[col] - [col] awol [col] 1 [col] 1 [col] 1 [col] 3[col]

33

AlyG

[col]5.5[col]6[col]-[col]4[col]6[col]6[col]6[col]

14.5

Gemelli

[col]2[col]2[col]awol[col]-[col]3[col]3[col]4[col]

26

Lucienne

[col]3[col]3[col]awol[col]3[col]-[col]4[col]1[col]

26

vollkan

[col]4[col]5[col]awol[col]5[col]4[col]-[col]5[col]

17

Originality

[col]5.5[col]4[col]awol[col]6[col]5[col]5[col]-[col]

14.5

Again, in order

Korlash - 33
Elias - 31
Gemelli - 26
Lucienne - 26
Vollkan - 17
Originality - 14.5
AlyG - 14.5

What is interesting here is that Korlash and ELias are very close, then there is a drop to Gemelli and Lucienne, who are the same, then there is an event further drop to myself, Orig and AlyG.

[Elias_the_thief]

I have Gemelli as my second because I feel the case on Korlash is stronger. If I can;t go back and form my own reasons for thinking someone is scummy this late in the game, I probably wont have them top of list. Anyways, if me and Gemelli both have eachother as number two, why should you be concerned with our link? Tomorrow one of us would be lynched anyways, so you'd get scum.

If Korlash is town and is lynched today, that makes us open D4 at 3:2 (bcs). On the off-chance that my theory is wrong in that scenario, then we would lose outright by mislynching. That's why I am concerned.

I'm saying that the fact that we have eachother number two should rule out the possibility of us being scum together, because it ensures scum lynched tomorrow, which is a stupid move.

What is interesting here is that Korlash and ELias are very close, then there is a drop to Gemelli and Lucienne, who are the same, then there is an event further drop to myself, Orig and AlyG.

I don't think it's that interesting. It's just how people feel.

[Korlash]

Woohoo! I'm first again! wait.. thats bad isn't it? *sad panda*

Well I have tomorrow off so tonight I guess i will be putting my two cents in again. I will proabbly say something really damning and be lynched for it but that is a risk I will have to take! ... After some food >.> <.<

[Gemelli]

Hey folks. Lots to reply to, but we have houseguests tonight and I'm going to have to be brief.

What problems with Oman's play? List them for me please.

I summarized my issues with Oman's play in post 1055, and summarized/re-rated them in post 1444. Oman dropped out before he got a chance to respond to my points, and I was not convinced by Korlash's attempts to rationalize the issues.

@Gemelli: Why did Lucienne drop back to number 3?

The man factor involved in Lucienne originally being on my #2 slot was my thought that Elias and Korlash could not be aligned with each other, given the high degree of their contention of their attacks against each other on D2. Since I suspected Elias at #1, I found it less likely that Korlash could be a suspect.

Since then, I've read through Elias's game history, and found that he has a history of successful bussing attacks similar in tone to the one he had with Korlash, making that less of a factor. There was also the point you brought up about shaft.ed's behavior towards Lucienne; she was one of only two players that shaft.ed did not find markedly suspicious during the game. Added to that, Korlash's behavior in D3 has been increasingly odd, particularly the points I brought up in post 1484 (changing from "I'm always worried about mafia RBs" to "gosh, Mafia RB? I need to look up these roles") and 1519 (stating that he knew about the Dybeck bandwagon in 1071, and planned to comment on it, and then in 1518(?) stating "I didn't say anything about Dybeck because when I first joined in I thought I had a bandwagon on me at the time.

I only later foudn out i didn't and Dybeck did.

" Making a provably untrue statement is a huge scumtell for me. That's what prompted my vote. I thought I'd explained that previously, but apparently I did a poor job of it.

Now, skipping right to the current stuff: I am seeing a pseudo-FriendOfScum tell in regards to Gemelli and Elias having Korlash at number 1 and each other at number 2. This is only compounded upon by Elias's latest thing talking about how if Korlash is scum, Elias is also.

Well, I know you've used the parser, so hopefully you'll be able to confirm that my focus on Oman/Korlash is not some Johnny-come-lately thing. He's been one of my primary targets all game. Elias has only come under my suspicion since we confirmed that Dybeck was scum.

And by the by, if people doing similar things is indicative of scumbuddiness:

I think if Korlash comes up scum, Gemelli is pretty certainly our scum.

Also, I think if Elias turns out scum, Gem is most likely his buddy.

The fact that those two posts come back to back like that may be a slip on their parts. If both are scum, they NEED to start making a strong case on me or Lucienne (the only remaining viable suspects).

Basically, the behaviour I am trying to understand is Gemelli suspecting:
#1 Elias
#2 Lucienne
#3 Korlash

And then having this somehow change to Korlash, whom now both Elias and Gemelli suspect.

Hopefully the above clears that up a little. All in all, I think you've raised some good points, and I hope you keep asking me questions until you've made up your mind on me one way or the other. I do encourage you to read through all of my contributions to the game to date, though -- from my admittedly biased perspective, I have tried my best to help the town after replacing into a bad situation. And I've tried to be as explicit as possible about my thinking as the game's proceeded.

If there are points I've missed responding to, please let me know and I'll reply to them as I'm able, LA notwithstanding.

[Korlash]

Oman dropped out before he got a chance to respond to my points, and I was not convinced by Korlash's attempts to rationalize the issues.

Fair enough. I can understand your whole "Sins of the father" thing with Oman and me. I cannot speak for him, but what he did cannot be ignored either... I will say, while I think he went about it badly, I believe I know why he acted like he did.

"I'm always worried about mafia RBs" to "gosh, Mafia RB? I need to look up these roles"

This same tactic just got me lynched in another game. I like the whole noob/idiot look I get so I push it as often as i can. As you see I clearly create a few contradictions in doing it. I have more or less scratched this play out of my book for later games. And I also admit it is a good piece of evidence. However my only defense is I have played this same "innocent" card as both town and scum. Take it how you will I suppose...

stating that he knew about the Dybeck bandwagon in 1071, and planned to comment on it, and then in 1518(?) stating "I didn't say anything about Dybeck because when I first joined in I thought I had a bandwagon on me at the time. I only later foudn out i didn't and Dybeck did.

I'm tired of trying to find a suitable answer for this. I figure i am best left with the truth, that I was in fact too busy with replacement issues at the time. I went after Dybeck as soon as I saw a reason too.

I voted him in 1182, why? because as a replacement(actually as a player in general) I wanted to find out WHY I was being voted. He then promptly claimed Cop. Meaning I then had to unvote him. So your case here is I did a full 100 posts without commenting on him then? Is that it?

And the "contradiction" cannot forget about that I suppose...

The fact that those two posts come back to back like that may be a slip on their parts. If both are scum, they NEED to start making a strong case on me or Lucienne (the only remaining viable suspects).

Like I would be dumb enough to let a slip happen with my "partner" if and when I am mafia. I may seem dumb, act like an idiot, and have the IQ of a buffalo on Crack but I know how to protect my allies. I suppose Elias is trying to bus you by saying it, and I just happened to call the truth. Or perhaps we have all be hoodwinked by Orig and Lucienne? Anything is possible I suppose... 'Cept for maybe Vollkan being scum...

Hopefully the above clears that up a little. All in all, I think you've raised some good points, and I hope you keep asking me questions until you've made up your mind on me one way or the other. I do encourage you to read through all of my contributions to the game to date, though -- from my admittedly biased perspective, I have tried my best to help the town after replacing into a bad situation. And I've tried to be as explicit as possible about my thinking as the game's proceeded.

No fair! He is a better player then me... Why does he get to use the excuse "I tried to help after replacing into a bad situation" and I get stuck with "a provably untrue statement" *Hides under bed and cries* T_T

[Elias_the_thief]

Since then, I've read through Elias's game history, and found that he has a history of successful bussing attacks similar in tone to the one he had with Korlash, making that less of a factor.

examples?