Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame

[MariaR]

Hoopia finally gets towny points.

[Hoopla]

Not impressed with GreyICE's posting at all. Don't like the Victor scumread or the call to vig IAI. Both seem like easy targets given Victor got pressure early on and IAI never posted.

Also, why are you willing to call Grey out for attacks on easy targets and yet think IAI's scumreads and his garbage L-1 vote are hunky-dory?

[TwoFace]

If anyone should be vigged for low contribution, it should be Jaack.

Well that's not how a vig should decide their kills

[BlackVoid]

@Hoopla, I don't see GreyICE or Jaack as "easy targets." I'm reading them as scum. From a recent game that just completed (Biker Wars), I think GreyICE is loud, vocal, and capable. I don't think scum would want to bus him because he'd be the one in it for the long haul.

GreyICE's posting hasn't given me townvibes. He townreads every strong player in the game and then talks about how he's missing things. In Biker Wars, he mentioned that he liked pushing strong players who are flaky because he knows he's slated for death early on. In the Team Mafia game I had glanced through earlier, GreyICE caught Sotty7 very early in the game and strongarmed a push on her. Here, he attacks Victor who is town, suggests a vig (or lynch) on IAI, muses about how he's probably townreading a strong player (Michel) and does nothing about it. Michel has been pretty inactive. If GreyICE truly suspected that something was up, he'd be pushing him for reactions trying to get a read and see what shakes out. I don't see any of it.

When IAI has the same scumreads as me, I'm more inclined to believe IAI is town and "gets it" than that he's scum, and my entire view of the game is flawed. That I should chuck it out and start anew because a guy who was too busy to post during the first week of the game has now caught up and agreed with me.

[Sotty7]

Wtf is it with the strong victor townreads o-o

Break it down why he's scum then. The only person who has put any real effort into a Victorscum read was GM and it wasn't very a strong case.

So you don't want to move your own vote because you don't think it would be useful off of either of the major wagons.
But you also question people won't move their votes off of a major wagon onto you.
Somewhat contradictory isn't it?

Exactly. No effort being spent to dig up leads or develop reads.

Yeah, I think vigging IAI is a pretty horrible idea. If he's been busy irl and hasn't posted till now, it makes sense that once he posts more, we should be able to get a read on him. So far, his two scumreads match nicely with mine which is enough to give a slight townlean. If anyone should be vigged for low contribution, it should be Jaack.

I was about to be down with a IAI vig shot but the Jaack idea is insanely better. They both make excellent targets.

Jaack saying "but why didn't you engage me" is tickling my funny bone immensely.

I think arguing who is a better vig shot isn't really going to help us at this point. Player preferences don't make scum. Hoopla is right about IAI's entrance. He put Grey at L-1 without really investing or committing to the game. His reads are common and popular and he hasn't attempted to elaborate. Cutting him slack because he has only just started posting doesn't work for me.

[Sotty7]

When IAI has the same scumreads as me, I'm more inclined to believe IAI is town and "gets it" than that he's scum, and my entire view of the game is flawed. That I should chuck it out and start anew because a guy who was too busy to post during the first week of the game has now caught up and agreed with me.

I get were you're coming from, but there are a lot of people right now who are scum reading Grey and Jaack. Slipping in with the crowd here creates very few ripples in the pond. I'm skeptical, at least until I hear more about how he got to where he is.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla, I don't see GreyICE or Jaack as "easy targets." I'm reading them as scum. From a recent game that just completed (Biker Wars), I think GreyICE is loud, vocal, and capable. I don't think scum would want to bus him because he'd be the one in it for the long haul.

They are easy targets. They're the two people most widely spoken about as scum in the last five pages, which is the only time IAI has been posting anything resembling content.

When IAI has the same scumreads as me, I'm more inclined to believe IAI is town and "gets it" than that he's scum, and my entire view of the game is flawed. That I should chuck it out and start anew because a guy who was too busy to post during the first week of the game has now caught up and agreed with me.

This is just mindbogglingly weird compared to your other posts are usually good and thoughtful.

- If you think IAI has caught up, then where are his posts detailing any of his thoughts? All he's done is have a petty setup spec argument with Grey who he then happens to vote.

- If you think IAI has not caught up, then it's extremely anti-town/scummy to put someone to L-1 when you don't know what's going on in the game.

So, which is it?

[BlackVoid]

They would only be "easy targets" if they are

town

. But I'm not reading either as town.

I think IAI has caught up given he gave us his reads. I also think different people have different playstyles and not everyone is going to make a list of reads detailing their thoughts. Of the reads he did give us, I agree with them. I'm fine with waiting a while to let him engage in the game real time, take stances, interact with people and contribute. That's different from throwing him around as a vig target.

[TwoFace]

Nobody else finds it weird that sotty was the leading vote getter twice and both times votes shifted to bbt? There doesn't seem to be much pushback or objection to a bbt lynch but sotty for some reason can't seem to get more than 4 votes?

Talks are being had about easy targets but sotty has basically only voted bbt who is is an easy target since he got to l-1 without much resistance and a vote on me because I wasn't voting my biggest scumread eventhouh shortly before that vote I said I didn't have any scum reads.

And now with the except of me trying to get people back on sotty who was the leading vote getter twice, there is really no counter forming to bbt/gray which indicate he's probably town.

[Hoopla]

I think the ease with which this BBT/Grey wagon has powered along with virtually no opposition is throwing me off. This has been compounded recently by IAI's L-1 vote, Cloud's willingness to hammer it, and everyone pretty much sitting on their hands mildly content with the proceedings. No Jack has sprung up despite interest in it. There have been vague rumblings about the BBT/Grey wagon from Maria and Rask, but nobody is going WAIT A MINUTE, HOLD ON A SECOND HERE.

So... I am confused. And I'd like to see what Grey says. And I'd like IAI to come in here and explain his reads and have a chat with me.

[Hoopla]

Nobody else finds it weird that sotty was the leading vote getter twice and both times votes shifted to bbt?

The Sotty wagon has stagnated and has been no chance of going through for at least 10+ pages -- I feel like that's pretty obvious. Jack has more chance of being lynched at this stage than Sotty despite having two votes less.

[GreyICE]

@BlackVoid:

Interesting that you read Biker Wars, and yet are willing to dismiss me so lightly. I'm not here to toot my own horn, but surely you read these posts, right?

Subject: Mini 1834: Biker Wars: Blood in the Streets Mafia PT

Well that was an absolute debacle

Sorry SC. You were going down and I needed that sweet sweet towncred. Also that's town-me's play 10 out of 10 times so... sorry not sorry

Anyway I think we have to kill GreyICE. he's got both of our numbers and he can probably push a lynch.

Subject: Mini 1834: Biker Wars: Blood in the Streets Mafia PT

Yeah, he's really good and will destroy us given the chance.

I agree

So why don't you talk to me? Surely there's something you're curious about. If nothing else, I want the town to win if you mislynch me today, and to do that I need you to understand my reads. Surely just hammering me without even finding out why I think something is a bad idea, right? Yes, I am town reading Hoopla and Sotty. I... think they're both town. I'm decently confident in my ability to read Sotty, since I replaced in there's no way she could be specifically trying to fool me. And Hoopla, I'm much more likely to misread her as scum when she's town than visa versa.

@Jack:

You voted Sotty on the top of page 5, because you thought she had the weakest vote on a wagon. That's a good page 5 reason. We're now on page 28. I haven't seen any evolution of those reads in the past 23 pages, and the Sotty read was:

Of those three I think Sotty is most likely. She had an empty vote, but at the same time added a few weak reads right afterword. Seems like someone who knew their vote was not good, so they decided to put down some content so as to not get blamed for fluff. 86 also shows more self awareness about the quality of her posts.

As for the other two, there's not enough from BBT to make note of pretty much anything, since his only post is the rask vote. I do have a slight scumread on TwoFace though, although it might just be the coin gimmick getting on my nerves. Scumread on Sotty is stronger.

VOTE: Sotty

You understand other things have happened in the past 23 pages, so saying your strongest scumread is still Sotty... I'd expect you to have more than one scumread, and I'd expect your reasons for Sotty scum to have evolved a bit since page 5. So what's happened in your mind since then?

[TwoFace]

But sotty hasn't done much. His pushes lack substance. He's saying all the right things to look town but when you actually look at what he's saying it's just meh.

I'm pretty sure he's scum. And because the people more universally town read are not paying him any attention, his buddies don't feel the need to bus or even distance.

[Hoopla]

Actually, I'm going to vote for Jack while I wait for Grey to start talking some more.

VOTE: Jaack


...oh good, he's here!

[GreyICE]

Also I'd deeply love to chat with MichaelSableheart. Very much so.

[Hoopla]

Also I'd deeply love to chat with MichaelSableheart. Very much so.

Michel is a tricky one to sit down and have a chat with. If you roll some dice, he's usually interested, though.

[BlackVoid]

Interesting that you read Biker Wars, and yet are willing to dismiss me so lightly.

I haven't dismissed you. I think if you are town, it's good for town. If you are scum, it's good for scum. I'm reading your slot as scum.

I'm happy to discuss your reads although it's going to take a lot to change my mind here. Your read on goodmorning is the one I'm most curious about. I have her as likely scum with your slot based on interactions with BBT.

[Hoopla]

Grey, you should start scumreading yourself and Jack. I think it might change BlackVoid's mind.

[GreyICE]

Hoopla, Sotty: Why Victor? Here we go.

As a veteran irascible asshole, let me assure you of two things. First, you don't necessarily change because you're scum. Second, being townread is simply a tool to lynch scum. If people town read you they're more willing to listen to you, if they're more willing to listen to you, they're more willing to vote with you. Certainly we none of us think Victor is ambivalent about who gets lynched, yes?

So early on Victor was getting significant pressure. A feud with GoodMorning, several votes, people pushing him, etc. He had to defend himself. Then it tapered off. What did Victor do? He tapered off. It's not like any of his comments were particularly insightful or probing earlier, but after the town read? He didn't try and sell a single person on voting GoodMorning. He just was happy to leave his vote there until the "oh gee, I guess I better join the wagon under duress".

That's supremely weak. You get town read, you use it to smash home wagons on scum. You don't sit there and wank off about it. Even useless prickly people like Furcolow try to push wagons home on people they think are scum (yes, Furcolow was supremely bad at it, but his inevitable detonations were because no one would listen to him). Victor prickles, but then backs down. It's weak as hell.

If you want to talk since then, he's been the most passionate about how we shouldn't shoot IAI. That's funny. He's been on site since 2013, he's very well aware that many extremely strong players have the philosophy that vigs should default to shooting useless lurkers precisely because they have no content and its hard to read them. This is not a controversial opinion or one that is rarely voiced, it's very mainstream, and IAI is the prime candidate of this town under that. The "at least people would have to take a stance" thing is super weird. Does he think that scum wouldn't bus IAI? It's not like he's playing well at all. It just seems an attempt to preserve IAI's life without actually doing much that would commit him one way or the other. It's a very weird stance to take. More interestingly he didn't even argue the scum should shoot Goodmorning. He just wanted it to be not-IAI, he didn't even think of Goodmorning getting shot. That's very, very odd for someone who is so strongly reading her as scum. He's strongly reading her, but he isn't really willing to push her and doesn't even think of having a vig shoot her? That's downright off.

So as to why I'm scum reading him, yes.

[goodmorning]

@Sotty: I disagree, as is probably obvious. I'm not really looking to have an argument about it and wouldn't have even bothered posting any of that had I not been directly asked. I've been pretty averse to pushing weakish wagons on players who are probably better than me since NY169.

@GM, I still find your read on Sotty7 weak.

Weirdly, I said

the same thing

.
You: "Oh, gm, why didn't you say anything about sotty?"
Me: "Well, everyone else's reasons are better, but here are mine if you care that much."
You: "GM that is so weak"
Me: "No shit?"

Active players are more useful later on.

For their faction, yes.
(After reading more of the thread it appears most everyone with a stated opinion agrees it's better caeteris paribus to lynch the guy with more content than less so...)

I also initially disliked Sotty7's reaction to TwoFace but her thoughtfulness in trying to see if she was tunneling rang town.

I saw no such thing.

Furthermore, if you know BBT has slow starts, why would you scumread him so early in the game? Given you dislike both my and Sotty7's pushes on BBT, what was

your

reasoning for scumreading him?

He doesn't usually have slow starts. I have seen him have a slow start twice and twice only. My reasoning for scumreading him has been clearly enumerated.

--

Oh look, it's Grey.

--

Well Maria is Town ok. Consistent 'omg let him catch up' could be Scum faking to look Town but I think Scum isn't that irritating about it.

Scum wouldn't vanity right? they'd either CW or bus I think

I vanity ALL THE TIME so never say never?

--

Guys, why all the wagon analysis????????? Like, I don't like the wagon either but it's silly to say it's necessarily on Town just because there's no real counter.

--

Hoopla sounds far too reasonable and responsible and this is bothering me for some reason.

But sotty hasn't done much. His pushes lack substance. He's saying all the right things to look town but when you actually look at what he's saying it's just meh.

that is exactly what i said

p-edit: holy shit grey

[TwoFace]

^ makes valid points

P.edit - ice's post

[GreyICE]

Interesting that you read Biker Wars, and yet are willing to dismiss me so lightly.

I haven't dismissed you. I think if you are town, it's good for town. If you are scum, it's good for scum. I'm reading your slot as scum.

I'm happy to discuss your reads although it's going to take a lot to change my mind here. Your read on goodmorning is the one I'm most curious about. I have her as likely scum with your slot based on interactions with BBT.

Well you understand that sitting here looking at my town role PM and knowing I'm in BBT's slot, this is hyper strong eye roll material. I mean if you do lynch me today you'd know I'm not lying and then you'd be reading her as town, yes? So if I set aside the "she's scum with confirmed town" line of logic (which is not convincing to me, obviously) then what do we have? Not much.

What we do have is someone who is actively annoyed at being ignored.That's always good. Lets look at her logic:

If there is scum on the wagon

I like that you start by saying "IF" and then somewhere between there and the end of the post it magically changes to "IS" with no real explanation.

And by "I like" I mean "I don't like." Also VCA is dumb ok

That's actually insightful thought, buried under the trolling and silliness.

Come join me on the Victor wagon, everyone! It's becoming better and better by the minute!

She's wagon building, she has a specific lynch candidate in mind and she wants people to join her.

I mean what more do you want. It's not like these are isolated, she has more things I like when I read her. She fucks around but doesn't use it as an excuse to not provide content. She has strong reads and she pushes them. She feels like she's genuinely trying to solve the game. That's not someone I read as scum.

[GreyICE]

@BlackVoid:

So why Victor town? Obviously I disagree, but I'm curious as to your reasons.

[TwoFace]

@grey. Once you're done questioning about victor. I actually have a question for you but want to wait until you're done asking about victor

[BlackVoid]

Grey, you should start scumreading yourself and Jack. I think it might change BlackVoid's mind.

He's already scumreading Jaack which just leaves himself. Maybe add in a dash of goodmorning, a sprinkle of MariaR, and a slice of Rask and we're good to go!