Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[vollkan]

I have Gemelli as my second because I feel the case on Korlash is stronger. If I can;t go back and form my own reasons for thinking someone is scummy this late in the game, I probably wont have them top of list. Anyways, if me and Gemelli both have eachother as number two, why should you be concerned with our link? Tomorrow one of us would be lynched anyways, so you'd get scum.

If Korlash is town and is lynched today, that makes us open D4 at 3:2 (bcs). On the off-chance that my theory is wrong in that scenario, then we would lose outright by mislynching. That's why I am concerned.

I'm saying that the fact that we have eachother number two should rule out the possibility of us being scum together, because it ensures scum lynched tomorrow, which is a stupid move.

I don't think it does rule Gem/Elias out, at all. If you two are scum, then you have only 2 feasible targets today: Korlash and Lucienne. That puts you in a tight spot either way. Thus, you could either split and go one each, or both go for one. Both are feasible, since no matter which of Korlash or Lucienne was lynched, it would confirm to me that at least one of you was scum.

I summarized my issues with Oman's play in post 1055, and summarized/re-rated them in post 1444. Oman dropped out before he got a chance to respond to my points, and I was not convinced by Korlash's attempts to rationalize the issues.

Okay. I will read over this at some point and scrutinise if I have problems

Like I would be dumb enough to let a slip happen with my "partner" if and when I am mafia. I may seem dumb, act like an idiot, and have the IQ of a buffalo on Crack but I know how to protect my allies. I suppose Elias is trying to bus you by saying it, and I just happened to call the truth. Or perhaps we have all be hoodwinked by Orig and Lucienne? Anything is possible I suppose... 'Cept for maybe Vollkan being scum...

Mistakes happen, Korlash. The other thing is that I get a whiff that you are buddying up to me, either to draw heat onto me, or to stop me pushing against you, because you seem absolutely convinced I am not scum.

[Gemelli]

Since then, I've read through Elias's game history, and found that he has a history of successful bussing attacks similar in tone to the one he had with Korlash, making that less of a factor.

examples?

The game of yours I reviewed to look for scum patterns was Newbie 330, where you and your Mafia partner dtsuei (and later his replacement Mitzef) go after each other fairly consistently for a good portion of the game. There may be other examples out there, but that was enough to convince me that you can be an aggressive busser as Mafia.

If you two are scum, then you have only 2 feasible targets today: Korlash and Lucienne. That puts you in a tight spot either way.

To me, that's a perfect description of the situation Mafia faces. The mafia need us to make two mislynches (or one mislynch, and one no-lynch or misvig) in order to win the game. The gambit of having one Mafia drive the lynch of his partner in order to bolster his apparent towniness would be risky, but assuming we have actually picked both remaining Mafia in our top 4 pool of suspects, that might be a risk they're willing to take. In order for that gambit to work, though, they would have to work to get one of their players down to the town's #4 choice of lynch or lower.

While I am more inclined to lynch Korlash at this point, as I said before, his edge over Elias is really not that big as far as I'm concerned. I am fairly certain that we DO have both mafia in the top 3 of our consensus list, and therefore at least one (and quite likely both) of the Korlash/Elias pair is scum. I would absolutely support a lynch of either player, and whichever of the two remains would be my default choice of target for D4, barring the introduction of new evidence.

[Streeflo]

Day 3 Votecount #39!

No different from Votecount #38!

Elias_the_Thief (1) - Korlash
Korlash (1) - Gemelli

Not voting: Lucienne, Elias_the_Thief, AlyG, originality, vollkan

With

7

alive it takes

4

to "accidentally" knock someone through the pressure doors.

Mod is bored by lack of activity. Deadline set on Sat December 8th until further notice.

Same rules apply. It will take 3 to lynch at deadline as of right now.

[Streeflo]

On a happier note,

AlyG

has just been prodded again. If he doesn't pick up the prod by

Thursday

, I will be forced to look for a replacement.

[Gemelli]

Um ... it sure got quiet in here all of a sudden. Where'd you all go?

And IMHO it's a bad sign when the mod's comment on the possible replacement of a player is described as "a happier note."

[originality]

Yeah, its pretty slow here. To get us moving again I'll be radical and

vote elias

for the points against him made mostly by vollkan.

4) @ Orig: Why do you suspect Lucienne so highly?

Its pretty much for the exact same reasons as yesterday. Her extreme neutrality sets me off. She plays both sides of the court, and if she does lean towards one side its very weakly.

[vollkan]

I've been watching. I made the second-last post, and Gem's response really had nothing in it that was worth commenting on.

We have just over a week until deadline. At this stage of things, Korlash is the scummiest. However, I also see Elias as a serious possibility, as well as Lucienne and Gemelli on a lower level.

[Elias_the_thief]

so yeah...I've heard all that I want to hear today really. I'm probably going to place my vote on Korlash soon. As a sidenote to Orig, I dont see how you can still consider me a better lynch candidate when Vollkan and I essentially debated to a standstill, and Korlash's connection to Dybeck is at least equal. Combined with the case based on his own behavior, and Oman's, I really dont understand the vote.

[Gemelli]

Elias: if you've "heard all that you want to hear today," what's stopping you from placing your vote? The way you worded it -- "I'm probably going to place my vote on Korlash soon" -- suggests that you are still unsure. Are you? Why, or why not?

[Elias_the_thief]

I'm not unsure. I think I've explained thoroughly why I think Korlash is scum. I'm waiting to see how everyone responds to the prospect of me voting. Though it's kind of obvious that I'm looking for reactions now, thanks to you.

[Gemelli]

But you've been vocal about Korlash being your #1 lynch choice for a while now. So the "prospect of you voting" was there before you posted, and I'm not sure what sort of reactions you might have hoped to get from that post.

Actually, I just realized that you made the same exact type of post about six days ago, in post 1559:

I'm not willing to post much because im pretty sure Korlash is scum, and the only thing prompting me to post more is defense. I will probably vote kor tomorrow.

So you're *still* waiting for reactions? Despite the fact that everyone in the game has posted since Nov 22 except AlyG? That doesn't add up to me. At all.

Here, let's see what kind of reaction this results in:

Unvote; Vote Elias

[Elias_the_thief]

Tell me, what is the benefit of waiting to vote as scum?

[Gemelli]

I can't say definitively, because so far I haven't played as scum in any Mafia game. But from the reading I've done, I've seen scum wait until both their players are online at the same time, for example, in order to minimize the chances of someone unvoting and spoiling a lynch.

There might be other reasons, and I'll let someone with more experience than me hypothesize on what they might be. But you posted essentially the same thing in 1559 and 1582, and that make me think that you might be trying to send a signal to a partner. Your "waiting for reactions" comment from 1584 doesn't make any sense ... how would you expect people to respond differently than they did in the six days since you made post 1559?

[Elias_the_thief]

First, you're voting for me based on the fact that I did something, when you can't find any concievable signifigant benefit scum from it? I mean, quicklynches are nice, but the only people that havent really posted recently are dybeck and alyg, pretty certainly not mafia, and besides, a quicklynch isnt even an issue when days been going on this long.

Anyways, first, theres a difference between saying I'll vote soon and I'll vote tomorrow. Therefore, you get different reactions. The fact that I'm getting this kneejerk illfounded vote from you shows very well that I've received different reactions.

[Gemelli]

First, you're voting for me based on the fact that I did something, when you can't find any concievable signifigant benefit scum from it?

No. I'm voting for you because I find your explanation of "waiting for reactions" to be contrived, given the fact that you've repeated your "reaction prompt" twice in six days.

Anyways, first, theres a difference between saying I'll vote soon and I'll vote tomorrow. Therefore, you get different reactions. The fact that I'm getting this kneejerk illfounded vote from you shows very well that I've received different reactions.

Serious hairsplitting on the phrasing point, especially since you obviously didn't mean it when you said "I'll probably vote tomorrow" six days ago.

And let's be clear: you didn't get a reaction from me because you worded it differently. You got a reaction (1) because you said the same thing twice, (2) because your explanation that you were waiting for reactions doesn't jibe with the fact that you said the same thing 6 days ago, and (3) because the combination of points 1 and 2 looks very much like an attempt to send a signal of some sort.

Also, once again it's worth noting that your posts in the game come few and far between unless you're defending yourself, at which point you start posting in batches. Are you scum hunting? Or just trying to save your own skin?

[vollkan]

But you've been vocal about Korlash being your #1 lynch choice for a while now. So the "prospect of you voting" was there before you posted, and I'm not sure what sort of reactions you might have hoped to get from that post.

Actually, I just realized that you made the same exact type of post about six days ago, in post 1559:

I'm not willing to post much because im pretty sure Korlash is scum, and the only thing prompting me to post more is defense. I will probably vote kor tomorrow.

So you're *still* waiting for reactions? Despite the fact that everyone in the game has posted since Nov 22 except AlyG? That doesn't add up to me. At all.

Here, let's see what kind of reaction this results in:

Unvote; Vote Elias

Gemelli, what are you trying to say here?

Elias didn't vote Korlash, on the basis he was looking for reactions. That isn't scummy. It's a complete and utter nullity. I admit, the reactions thing seems odd given the delay, but I don't see why it is scummy.

I can't say definitively, because so far I haven't played as scum in any Mafia game. But from the reading I've done, I've seen scum wait until both their players are online at the same time, for example, in order to minimize the chances of someone unvoting and spoiling a lynch.

There might be other reasons, and I'll let someone with more experience than me hypothesize on what they might be. But you posted essentially the same thing in 1559 and 1582, and that make me think that you might be trying to send a signal to a partner. Your "waiting for reactions" comment from 1584 doesn't make any sense ... how would you expect people to respond differently than they did in the six days since you made post 1559?

Scum do the waiting thing in order to quicklynch. In a 5:2 situation, there is no benefit to scum in quicklynching.

[Elias_the_thief]

For clarity, I was actually going to vote when I made the original post six days ago, and I actually mean to now. Things came up 6 days ago however.

First, you're voting for me based on the fact that I did something, when you can't find any concievable signifigant benefit scum from it?

No. I'm voting for you because I find your explanation of "waiting for reactions" to be contrived, given the fact that you've repeated your "reaction prompt" twice in six days.

Again, what benefit does scum have in being contrived in such a remark? You've shown no reason that scum would do this, so it's not a tell.

Anyways, first, theres a difference between saying I'll vote soon and I'll vote tomorrow. Therefore, you get different reactions. The fact that I'm getting this kneejerk illfounded vote from you shows very well that I've received different reactions.

Serious hairsplitting on the phrasing point, especially since you obviously didn't mean it when you said "I'll probably vote tomorrow" six days ago.

I always split hairs. That's how I play. And I did mean to vote six days ago, however new issues came up.

And let's be clear: you didn't get a reaction from me because you worded it differently. You got a reaction (1) because you said the same thing twice, (2) because your explanation that you were waiting for reactions doesn't jibe with the fact that you said the same thing 6 days ago, and (3) because the combination of points 1 and 2 looks very much like an attempt to send a signal of some sort.

Firstly, what signal am I trying to send when days been going on for so long? Until you explain this, you'll just continue to sound stupid, pressing ideas that you haven't even formulated. Anyways, it doesnt matter which aspect of my posts got the reaction, I got it.

Also, once again it's worth noting that your posts in the game come few and far between unless you're defending yourself, at which point you start posting in batches. Are you scum hunting? Or just trying to save your own skin?

I'm trying to save my own skin. That's how I play. In addition to this being my playstyle, I'm fairly certain that Korlash is scum, and I don't really think I need to scumhunt that much today. However, I think it's clear that my test for reactions was scumhunting. Are you trying to discredit me, or simply me? And this wierd reaction to an enitrely innocent post is really not helping your case as his buddy, considering as its in response to me raising the prospect of voting him.

Anyhoo, as promised,

unvote

(dont think i was voting somone, but better safe then sorry)

vote: korlash

.

[vollkan]

I'm waiting to see how everyone responds to the prospect of me voting.

For clarity, I was actually going to vote when I made the original post six days ago, and I actually mean to now. Things came up 6 days ago however.

Change of story much? Why not just say you forgot

Anyway, that makes two for Korlash. I'd rather not leave us less than a week after Korlash claims (so as not to cause us to do things hurriedly), so would it be acceptable if Korlash were to claim in 24 hours? I agree he is most suspect and he would be getting my vote at deadline, but now that things are solidifying I think a claim soon would be useful.

[Elias_the_thief]

How is that a change of story? The first post you quoted is specifically in reference to the post I made yesterday. Why do you believe that having the intention of eventually voting, but also having the intention to hold off to get reactions first, are mutually exclusive?

[Korlash]

Um... One for me Vollkan, 3 for elias... Unless I am mistaken... Nice that you assumed it would be me...

I have some personal life crisis events right now. i will be posting back either tomorrow, or the next day.

sorry ><

[vollkan]

How is that a change of story? The first post you quoted is specifically in reference to the post I made yesterday. Why do you believe that having the intention of eventually voting, but also having the intention to hold off to get reactions first, are mutually exclusive?

In the second post I quoted you make it sound like your not voting was a mistake. In the former, you justify the "I'll probably place my vote soon" by saying that you are waiting for people to respond to the prospect of you voting.

Basically, the second makes it sound accidental whereas the former makes it sound like you are now holding off deliberately. It's a weird change to make, since I would imagine that if you were wanting to judge reactions, the best approach would have been to vote right up.

[Elias_the_thief]

I never claimed to be searching for reactions the first time. The only reason the "difference" between the two instances came up was that he was challenging that any reactions I get from saying it now I should have gotten then.

[Gemelli]

Gemelli, what are you trying to say here?

Elias didn't vote Korlash, on the basis he was looking for reactions. That isn't scummy. It's a complete and utter nullity. I admit, the reactions thing seems odd given the delay, but I don't see why it is scummy.

It's the same type of thing that caused my vote to go onto Korlash earlier in the day: strange actions that are backed by implausible explanations.

Any reactions he might have wanted to draw out from his gonna-vote-for-Korlash-soon announcement should have been apparent in the six days of real time that passed since he first did it. Every player in the game except AlyG has posted since that announcement. What possible new reactions could he hope to draw out by doing the same exact thing that no one reacted to previously? It just doesn't add up.

So I decided to fire a shot across his bow to see what would happen. Lo and behold, suddenly he's full of ideas and contributions to the game

Here's a fun fact about post 1582: this is Elias's ONLY post since D3 started that was not made in a direct response to a question posed to him, or a response to suspicions levelled against him. His case against Korlash was only offered when he was directly asked who his first choice of scum would be. Elias is not scum-hunting. He is engaging in self-preservation. His only contributions to hunting scum have been offered in order to distract from the case against him.

I note that Elias's lastest post is covering familiar ground -- complete with saying I sound stupid, and continuing to push the Gemelli/Korlash scumbuddy scenario -- and frankly I don't see the need to respond to any of it. I didn't join the game to participate in a hairsplitting battle, where you claim that the hairs YOU split are important and relevant, while the hairs that others split are stupid and meaningless.

I'm happy to respond to questions from the rest of you about my arguments. As I said earlier, I'd support a Korlash lynch if push comes to shove, but for now I think it's clear that the only way to get Elias to contribute to our game is to keep a little pressure on him, so my vote stays.

Anyway, that makes two for Korlash. I'd rather not leave us less than a week after Korlash claims (so as not to cause us to do things hurriedly), so would it be acceptable if Korlash were to claim in 24 hours? I agree he is most suspect and he would be getting my vote at deadline, but now that things are solidifying I think a claim soon would be useful.

Unless I've miscounted, Elias is at L-1. I wouldn't be averse to claims from both players, honestly.

[vollkan]

Any reactions he might have wanted to draw out from his gonna-vote-for-Korlash-soon announcement should have been apparent in the six days of real time that passed since he first did it. Every player in the game except AlyG has posted since that announcement. What possible new reactions could he hope to draw out by doing the same exact thing that no one reacted to previously? It just doesn't add up.

So I decided to fire a shot across his bow to see what would happen. Lo and behold, suddenly he's full of ideas and contributions to the game

Ah okay. I see what you are saying now. But Elias says he wasn't searching for reactions the first time. Then again, it doesn't really matter because reactions would have surfaced anyway.

Unless I've miscounted, Elias is at L-1. I wouldn't be averse to claims from both players, honestly.

Sorry, that was a blatant error on my part. I looked at the vote count and saw Korlash at 1 (your vote actually) and Elias at 1. Thus when I saw Elias vote Korlash I thought that made 2 for Korlash. I missed the votes on Elias.

In this case, Elias is at L-1 and should claim whenever he is ready.

[Korlash]

Um... Vollkan... What do you expect me to do? Claim doc? Mason? Sk? What? Are you seriously forgetting that whole big.. Korlash claimed for no reason thing we had ten weeks ago? I only see you asking me to claim as some weird trap thing and I am really afraid to say anything... I'm serious here... last time I "sorta claimed" I got my head chewed off.
Like I said, more tomorrow. We have the regional something vice somethings in for annual inspection, have to get to work at like 6 in the morning so it's off to bed.