Newbie 1752: Wave - Game Over

[Charloux]

I though you were a PR from your posts yesterday

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Why kill me or drone if both of us would flip town? That would literally make a very likely 50/50 between you and the one of us you left alive, and neither of us would go down without a fight.

Also, I thought the same of you. Yet, you claim it would be common sense to claim in MyLo, but didn't claim, so I'm not so sure anymore.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Everyone alive today was on either the D1 ml or the D2 ml when they finalized, and nobody who is alive today was on both wagons. This leads me to believe that there was exactly 1 scum on each wagon, because if there were 2 scum on either wagon, it would mean there were 0 scum on the other one. Thus, there is likely one scum in {Tenshii, Blake, Creature}, and the other is likely in {Drone, Charloux} (remove your own name from these pools if you're town ofc)

I think the way Charloux was talking about baiting the NK yesterday makes him a non-target for last night's NK because he softclaims being either Vanilla or 1-shot BP Townie with that conversation. This is why none of my SRs would try to kill him, they'd want to hit a PR that could out them the next day. Creature has been hard to read all game so I think mafia wants him alive in this situation (MyLo), so nobody kills him.

Neither

Drone

nor

Charloux

know which of them I was sheeping yesterday, so I think they both would want to kill me because they would not want to risk me and the other being against them as a townblock.

Creature

would want to kill Drone because with me alive he can maybe convince me to go back to my old SRs of Tenshii+Blake and get a mislynch for scum win.
I think

Tenshii

tries to kill me because if he were scum he would either be with Drone or Charloux. If Drone, Charloux is a non-target, so I'm the only target left in PoE. If Charloux, why did he not vote for Drone yesterday? For the record I do not think scum!Tenshii is very likely.

Blake's

posts on D2 were so all over the place that I've got no real idea who he'd target. Maybe Tenshii because with Tenshii backing him up earlier a Tenshii flip would vindicate him and give him a reason to push for my ml: something along the lines of "Kyouko thought me and Tenshii were scum but look Tenshii flipped town you should all lynch Kyouko" (this is not a quote of anyone, just something I could see scum!Blake saying in this hypothetical).

[Creature]

Wouldn't scum want to go after the PR(s)?

[Charloux]

Wouldn't scum want to go after the PR(s)?

I think so? It's sad we don't have an investigative role though.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Tenshii may still be investigative that didn't have a guilty or a result as of d2.
Should we just all claim to force scum to either give up their chance to cc, or reveal themselves by ccing? If that were to work out we'd probably enter tomorrow with 3 town vs 1 scum, and there's a chance that if scum failed to kill last night they could fail again, which would put us at 4 town 1 scum. There's also a slight chance that even after a claim and ml that scum could miss the nk again , and then town doesn't lose. If there is a doc they would have to claim vt unless forced to backup a CCed town or we would definitely lose if we MLed today because a doc in the open won't save anyone

[Creature]

If we massclaim now, we shouldn't nolynch.

[Charloux]

If we don't want to massclaim, then we should no lynch and hope for the best? It kinda kills the point of protecting somebody.

[Creature]

The only town role that can benefit from a nolynch at this point is the cop.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Yeah I wasn't trying to imply we should mass claim and then nolynch, was just saying g if we all claim now then scum can't save their cc to cast doubt when it's most convenient for them. And Char what creature says is right, but the converse is not true. Nolynch is bad unless we have a tracker and no doctor claim, even then it gets sketchy tomorrow. Nolynch isn't viable here no matter the setup imo

[Tenshii]

I think we should just no lynch w/o claiming. All of the reward possibilities for Night PR's outweigh any reward I can think of for claiming/lynching today.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Show of hands who here agrees and who disagrees on my theory on the composition of the scum wagons? That it's like a combination of one player from each of these 2 pools: {Tenshii, Blake, Creature} and {Drone, Kyouko, Charloux}? Ofc you can take your own name out of the pool if you're town

[Tenshii]

Unless we're lynching today, I think it's optimal to just NL without talking to not influence the nightkill in a wifom-esque way.

VOTE: No Lynch

[Charloux]

VOTE: No lynch i claim PGO.

[Charloux]

And the one scum per wagon theory is unusable because of the oddity of it. If it's true though, the person who put him to L-1 when he said he would hammer is the most sus.

[Charloux]

Oddity of clouds wagon *

[Drone]

VOTE: No Lynch

[ssbm_Kyouko]

There are still only 3 people alive from each wagon with unconfirmed roles though. Seems unlikely that either wagon was composed entirely of town, which logically leads to the conclusion that each wagon had 1 scum on it. If there was a wagon composed entirely of town though it would have been Cloud's which would put both the remaining scum in Hellfire's wagon. First Tenshii, then Drone for NL... Guess I'll go with Drone again,

VOTE: No Lynch

@Mod let us shorten this night phase if we all request it in pm?

[grapes]

FINAL DAY 3 VOTECOUNT

No-Lynch (4):

Tenshii, Charloux, Drone, ssbm_Kyouko

ssbm_Kyouko (1):

Blakebtb23

Not Voting (1):

Creature

With 6 votes in play, 4 were needed to lynch.

[grapes]

Nobody was lynched Day 3.

[grapes]

It is now Night 3.

You have (expired on 2016-11-20 23:50:22) to place night actions.

If all players PM me saying they're okay with a fast night, I'll begin the next day as soon as it's convenient for me.

[grapes]

Nobody died Night 3.

[grapes]

It is now Day 4.

DAY 4 VOTECOUNT 00

Not Voting (6):

Blakebtb23, Drone, Charloux, ssbm_Kyouko, Tenshii, Creature

With 6 votes in play, 4 are needed to lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2016-12-04 07:07:02)

The Big Pink - Hit The Ground

[Charloux]

So this turned into a waiting game, how annoying.

[Creature]

Not sure what scum wants.