Mini Normal 1848 — Game Over!

[MortFeld]

to-do list tomorrow:

Nero case
LUV read

[Road Kamelot]

I still dontt get why chaos even quoted that list. reads lists are ptetty useless anyway

Why did you make one then

to give people an idea of my thought process at the time. I didnt have a lot fo hard scum reads around post 900. it was useful in context but it seems like cherrypicking for Chaos to grab that from a reread.

Well dismiss the cherry picking thought bc going back and asking about earlier thought process + reads is a p normal thing to do
And as far as im concerned Chaos is town

[MortFeld]

yeah he is probably town.

[ArcAngel9]

I am not around for 24 hours. I am okay lynching RK. Go ahead.

[rb]

I'm tired af after work. Gonna skip this tonight and I have heaps of stuff to do this weekend. I'm gonna go full power next week Monday. If everyone is super bored we can lynch RK but I'd rather wait and read game properly.

[keyenpeydee]

Vote Count

VOTE COUNT 3.04

[0] Road Kamelot -
[0] ArcAngel9 -
[2] Nero Cain - ChaosOmega, Naomi-Tan,
[0] rb -
[0] MortFeld -
[0] Lil Uzi Vert -
[0] Naomi-Tan -
[0] ChaosOmega -
[0] Shadow_step -

Not Voting

- Road Kamelot, ArcAngel9, Nero Cain, rb, Lil Uzi Vert, Shadow_step, Mortfeld,

MOD NOTES:

Keep everything cool and enjoyable

V/LA:

ChaosOmega - Until Monday

With

9

Alive, it takes

5

to lynch. Day Three will end in

(expired on 2016-12-01 15:45:00)

.

[Shadow_step]

Mort did you claim yet ?

[Road Kamelot]

I'm tired af after work. Gonna skip this tonight and I have heaps of stuff to do this weekend. I'm gonna go full power next week Monday. If everyone is super bored we can lynch RK but I'd rather wait and read game properly.

If i get lynched as an afterthought im gonna cry
Wait until rb has his super special scumpick
I wont complain if its me but ill super complain of i get lynched cause *bored*
i want me that perfect game too

[Shadow_step]

Well a perfect game is all scum lynches without any town deaths by NKs as well.

[Road Kamelot]

p sure you can get a perfect game with town feaths by nk
thats literally unavoidable

[rb]

not if u roleblock scum/protect target

unlikely but it does happen, i think it's usually moreso in micros - i've lynched scum d1, protected night 1 and then lynched scum day2 for perfect win in 2v7.

[Shadow_step]

not if u roleblock scum/protect target

unlikely but it does happen, i think it's usually moreso in micros - i've lynched scum d1, protected night 1 and then lynched scum day2 for perfect win in 2v7.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[MortFeld]

Nero PBPA. Going to try something just for fun, giving + town points and - scum points. This will not affect my read but I want to start trying it with PBPAs.

Spoiler: the PBPA

696 Votes Chaos over obvious joke. Read out of context? Not sure how. -.5

I remember that 1103 pinged me as a bit flippant, but I think that's just how Nero talks. -.5

1127 town reads Copper because apparently Copper mindlessly agrees with posts... as town, and he did so in this game. Which feels incredibly weak, even if you believe that kind of meta analysis works it's thin. Scum reads Misa because of 9 which is reasonable. +0

First part of 1129 is not true. TF did not say anything about alignment - 'unnecessary' doesn't imply 'scummy.' Points out TB's 112 as scummy. Reasonable. -.5

1167 is a good post. +1

1187 through 1194 I'm not sure. Holding TF accountable = good. +1

1262 makes excuse for Arc. Doesn't understand case on Arc as demonstrated by 1264. -.5

1)

1309 rereads TB, decides Arc is scummy. Inconsistency. Might be explained by Nero's being scum - knows Arc is town, doesn't see a case, wants town cred because Arc may eventually flip. Then he sees a valid case and jumps on. Could also be town. -.5

2)

So at this point TF makes 1379. Nero responds with 1382. Essentially:
TF - you are not catching up.
Nero - I am active.

Let's ignore for a second that this is moving the goalposts, and pretend that Nero said "I have caught up and I've shown it." How accurate is this? Has Nero actually caught up? The latest post he explicitly caught up on before his replacement at 580 is 526. Before that he focuses on stuff around post 100. So there is a 400-post gap, still not sure if he read those. Then for stuff that happens after he replaces in, he is nearly mute! He makes no overt attempt to read or comment on anything between post 580 and post 1382. This is quite odd for a townie, even rb made an attempt to read ISOs and he had more than double the pages to read that Nero had. This is the majority of my case. Not just moving the goalposts and thereby not answering the question, but also the content, which is that Nero was participating and voting yet hadn't made an overt attempt to catch up, or to tell town he didn't intend to catch up. -2

1387 is a weird question because TF had already made 1350 and 1332 which both show intent to lynch. Why ask TF specifically? -.5

3)

1410 moving the goalpost again. The issue from 1408 wasn't that Arc was lurky, the issue was that she made a poor excuse for her being lurky. TF might be wrong that this is a scumtell (I think he most definitely is), but saying 'Arc is always lurky' is not interacting with TF's point. Also is making excuses for Arc again. -1

4)

1586 gross. Also has the side effect of excusing a real justification for the vote. The only reason I can see people doing this as town is to make it seem reasonable when they do it as scum. Nero has zero town cred at this point, no scum is going to jump on the Arc wagon merely given Nero's blessing. I have yet to see a successful reaction test of this sort in any of my games or games I've read. -1

1589 justifying Arc townread based on meta. I have no issue with meta reads in general, but meta reads of this sort... if you are going to justify a townread, do so in a way that isn't circular. "Arc is town because she looks town" is not logical. But this is a disagreement about playstyle more than anything. +0

1592 reduces my PBPA to 'Arc throwing a hissy fit,' which makes sense in hindsight if you know Arc is town! But that was not the entirety of my case. -.5

5)

1660 huh? Suddenly Arc looks scum from my PBPA? Literal flip flop, Nero said she looked town from it earlier. How did this happen? Good on Nero for calling out Shadow's weirdness. -1 +.5 = -.5

1661 perplexes me. Why draw attention to RK? There's a big HS wagon. HS was town. I don't know a ton about scum theory so I'll say it's NAI. +0

1668 no. Why do people play like this? It only makes sense for people to interact with posts like these if they townread you. Nobody should be townreading Nero at this point in time. +0

1674 is not a reason to vote RK. It contains no argument. Therefore it essentially constitutes avoiding TF's question from 1669 -.5

1675 good point about scumtells, I think I agree with this in terms of the macro game, which is what Naomi was referencing. +.5

Then we have a 400-post gap.

2089 hm, why? I don't think anyone asked because there was a big ad-hominem fest going on at the time. Don't like the vote because it came during the Drone push. Seemed like Nero was trying to propose a counterwagon, it just didn't take because Nero has no towncred and made no argument.

6)

2107 is the only time the entire game Nero mentions Drone. "What's the case on Drone?" Case was explained, Nero doesn't post again. Drone ends up dying. That whole section reads bad. -1

7)

He also never mentions Toto the entire time. Like, literally not a single instance of 'Toto' or stuff about Toto occurs in Nero's posts. -1

Total score: -8 out of 22 items. Average scum per post: -.36. This is just for future reference to see how this method correlates with alignment. Not scientific at all, though after many games it might start to become scientific.

I do think Nero is scum. He remains my most likely candidate. See 1-7 for the main posts that make me believe this.

[MortFeld]

Lynching RK instead of Nero is dumb, we're doing so because Arc reads Nero as town? I get that Arc and Nero know each other over many games but forgive me for not just taking Arc's word here.

[MortFeld]

By the way, can we brainstorm a way to avoid the scum no-kill scenario? To recap: Arc JKs someone and tells us who it is before nightfall. If this person is town, scum can no-kill to make us think that person is confscum. Lynching them puts us in a MYLO situation rather than LYLO. Scum can do this indefinitely, or even carry out a nightkill the next night with even numbers.

Two questions:

1) Does the benefit for scum of leading us down WIFOM paths in the coming days, and putting the game in a MYLO situation with little risk, outweigh the harm of leaving Arc alive another night? and
2) If the answer to 1) is yes, does town have any counterplay? I've been toying with the idea of having Chaos and Arc target the same person.

[Shadow_step]

I asked you to claim.

[MortFeld]

I asked you to claim.

Actually you didn't, you asked whether or not I had claimed yet. But I'm VT.

[Shadow_step]

Yeah so there is no way chaos is scum.
No way the only power town have against a mostly likely goon/goon/1 shot strongman setup is 1 shot vig+jk.

[Shadow_step]

About the JK thing, if scum keep no killing to wifom us, to prevent that we keep no lynching and jailing the same person.
Mafia cannot choose to indefinitely no kill, if they do town auto wins.

[MortFeld]

About the JK thing, if scum keep no killing to wifom us, to prevent that we keep no lynching and jailing the same person.
Mafia cannot choose to indefinitely no kill, if they do town auto wins.

Awesome, thanks for the solution. This would be a very funny end to a game.

[MortFeld]

Wait. If scum keep no killing, and town keeps no lynching, at what point do we decide to split the difference and lynch? Or is there a point at which the game just ends in a town win?

[Shadow_step]

We are lynching because people are dying at night. If scum decide to stop killing there isn't a threat so we don't need to lynch.
Mod has to declare that town have won.

[MortFeld]

We are lynching because people are dying at night. If scum decide to stop killing there isn't a threat so we don't need to lynch.
Mod has to declare that town have won.

I understand the first part, but not the second. Town win when all scum are dead. Scum win when all town are dead. If it is apparent that neither of these win conditions will be met, how does this result in a town win?

[rb]

Tbh we won't know if scum nokilled or we jailed though, is my point

We might jail then lynch the jailed person because no kill. They flip town. Scum nokills again, we lynch jail target - flips town.

Or we could just fucking play the game and stop being scared to find scum by daygame and totally forget about using gimmicks to do it - it WOULD work if we hadn't wifom'd the shit out of ourselves or discussed it for days.

I actually agree with Mort that Nero is a good lynch.

[MortFeld]

Tbh we won't know if scum nokilled or we jailed though, is my point

We might jail then lynch the jailed person because no kill. They flip town. Scum nokills again, we lynch jail target - flips town.

Or we could just fucking play the game and stop being scared to find scum by daygame and totally forget about using gimmicks to do it - it WOULD work if we hadn't wifom'd the shit out of ourselves or discussed it for days.

This is not productive. I'm trying to see if there's an optimal path for town here. If there isn't, then we play the game as usual. If there is, we take it. It's not a gimmick if it's foolproof.

Scum nokill, person is town

We no lynch and jail the same person.

Scum nokill, person is scum

We no lynch and jail the same person.

This continues until either scum decide to kill and let us confirm a townie, or they don't ever decide to kill. What I'm wondering is if the latter results in a town win.