In post 1145, Gamma Emerald wrote:Here's the deal.
Claiming Miller first post means scum can't fakeclaim miller under cop investigation.
As I said: Risk reward.
Chances are low that any individual player will never hit a situation that they have to claim and a cop targets them. You balance a cop such that they will get about two investigations in a game before they die, meaning that any single player has at most a 1 in 6 chance of being targeted. I think my target rate is far below that for how often a cop runs into me, so im not going to claim miller in my first post. It simply is bad math to do so.
I would 100% prefer to end up looking town enough to not get targeted instead of tell scum "by the way im not a threat to you and there is a cop".
Seriously just play with an assumption that there is a cop (not always given with miller) and 13 players...
D1 there is only a 85% chance (at best) neither role gets ran up
N1 there is only a 78% chance both roles live (assuming town lynch) and a 9% chance cop hits miller
To note... that is already a 34% chance one of cop/miller have claimed or died
D2 82% chance that one claims/is lynched
N2 20% one dies (assume one scum is dead - otherwise 22%) and 10% chance cop hits miller
So basically... chance that cop and miller live to D3 is about 40%... compared to around 25% that cop targets miller
Yeah. Miller doesn't claim.
All Alone wrote:VOTE: Rainbowdash
Not buying the miller claim. Two negative-utility roles is unheard of in a mini normal, and I'm pretty sure RBD has been around long enough to know that. I think if she was really a miller, she'd have shown a
lot
more reservation about Gamma's ascetic enabler claim than she has.
Way too bizarre of a role for somepony to fabricate like that. Its real, even if Gamma is scum its real.