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Post Post #1175 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 1:42 am

Post by TwoFace »

In post 1006, Alisae wrote:Krylea, am I the only person who is All Alone in that they think that All Alone is scum?
I think he could be
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Post Post #1176 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 1:47 am

Post by Asphodel »

In post 1080, -Grey- wrote:Ascetic(s) + Miller vs
x-shot
cop?

I DON'T FUCKING THINK SO
In post 1041, -Grey- wrote:
In post 1039, TheRealGin-N-Tonic wrote:
In post 1037, -Grey- wrote:
In post 1004, Rainbowdash wrote:@Grey - Last chance to add anything else to your claim that you may have been missing.

Im still convinced grey is scum and he is caught for both game actions he hasn't realized yet and something else that im not going to say until he responds to this just incase he decided to leave out something critical in his claim because there is some stuff that doesn't add up.
Oh I've totally left something out of my claim, no doubt about that.

The question is, how do
you
know that?
I detect a storm brewing
No, not really. If my hunch is right, Rainbow might be my counterpart. It's the only way he should know about my limitation. There's no reason to think scum would.

I do wonder, however, why he would choose to discuss this today. His timing is utter shit.
I also think he could be. I'll look into him a little deeper soon but I don't like that he is posting a ton of reads and 0 of them are townreads.
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Post Post #1177 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 1:50 am

Post by Asphodel »

oh damn it I was using those quotes for something else and forgot I'd had them copied.
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Post Post #1178 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 1:51 am

Post by TwoFace »

In post 1025, Ircher wrote:Townies don't ignore their scumreads;
Not true at all. I do this all the time
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Post Post #1179 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 1:54 am

Post by TwoFace »

In post 1025, Ircher wrote:To be honest, 455 reads as confirmation bias.
I don't think you know what confirmation bias is. When you catch somebody making a mistake and they don't admit they made one, that changes it from a mistake to a lie. Refusing to admit the mistake and apologize is scum motivated, not town motivated.
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Post Post #1180 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 1:58 am

Post by TwoFace »

In post 1025, Ircher wrote:670 reads as fake considering the answer is in the quote.
Not the answer I was looking for. He had no reason to claim. He wasn't close to being lynched at all. PRs shouldn't claim early.
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Post Post #1181 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 1:59 am

Post by TwoFace »

I'm heading out of town so I'll try and read up when I get to my hotel tonight.

mod, I'll be v/la for the weekend
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Post Post #1182 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:00 am

Post by Asphodel »

Grey is likely telling the truth, and RainbowDash is likely lying. We still shouldn't lynch RainbowDash today. I want Grey to live until tomorrow and get a report. If RainbowDash is still alive after Day 1, then killing Grey is throwing her under the bus. Confirming him as a sort of cop confirms her as lying about being a miller due to the difference in mafia/not mafia & guilty/not guilty language. Also, on the off chance I'm wrong about which one's telling the truth and which one's lying, the night might provide a little more clarity.
In post 779, Rainbowdash wrote:
In post 771, Gamma Emerald wrote: Miller
Nah.

You need to not only have a cop in the game but they also need to target you. Its far more of a risk, but by claiming miller you basically say to the scum "by the way there is a cop in this game". Even if you want to say both players survive two cycles, you are at about 80% chance not to be investigated. Especially in a large game, I think you can get away without a miller claim, even more if you leave some sort of a "Hey look at me, im a miller and this is a convenient breadcrumb" type post.

Less scum know about the setup the harder it is to play as scum. C9++ setup is the best example of how scum not knowing what they are up against makes the game FAR harder for them.

That's just theory though, I think site still tends to trend towards the conservative miller claim (likely due to lack of scum faking it) although not as much anymore, but I think there is plenty of justification against throwing that claim out as well.
1. This is not a breadcrumb. This didn't happen until post 779 and Gamma's the person who brought up the role in the first place, not you.
2. What made you claim? It doesn't help prove your case against Grey, and you're on record as saying that claiming miller is a bad idea.
In post 806, Rainbowdash wrote:I am fairly confident that's BS.

I don't want a real cop countering him right now. For time being and hopefully to make this far easier, what type of results do you get: Guilty/Not Guilty or Mafia/Not Mafia.
This, and Grey's subsequent answer, makes it very unlikely that the two are on the same team.

In post 1004, Rainbowdash wrote:@Grey - Last chance to add anything else to your claim that you may have been missing.

Im still convinced grey is scum and he is caught for both game actions he hasn't realized yet and something else that im not going to say until he responds to this just incase he decided to leave out something critical in his claim because there is some stuff that doesn't add up.
Were you expecting Grey to add something on to his claim that wasn't there before?
In post 1046, Rainbowdash wrote:
In post 779, Rainbowdash wrote:"Hey look at me, im a miller and this is a convenient breadcrumb"
Im a cheeky pony and I freaking love it.

Yeah im claiming miller. It why I specifically asked about the type of result that he would get since my role is a bit vague regarding it, but heavily implies that he would be getting guilty/not guilty instead of mafia as he suggested.

Now your immediate thought may be as to why I question a cop when my role implies it and there are a few things that I have been thinking as to why I am pretty sure he is lying about this that don't have to do with result wording. In a bit of a spoiler alert, I think there is a better chance that he is fakeclaiming town than a cop.

1) His immediate thought of "we lynch any guilty or 'no result' D2". This is first implies he would be alive which if he is a cop... why does he think this really, especially when he has continually pushed for a fact that there is "no RB" in the game. The assumption that there is no RB is a little interesting, as a RB is a usually a scum counter for a role. The presence of Gamma doesn't increase or decrease the chance for there to be a RB unless the ascetic is scum in which case it dramatically. Either way, what is the worst case for him as scum? Call a guilty on a player like me or another somewhat hard lynch and end up not pulling it off? Best case he got out of D1 lynch, easy D2 lynch and scum is way up.

2) The game he kept referring to he claimed cop in and completely left that out of his reason for crumbing. Its why I have this really bad gut feeling that he might be VT and is completely screwing with us and I am either a red herring role or there is a real cop who was smart and kept their mouth shut. If he is going to refer to a game he claimed cop in (even as not cop) how do you NOT link that into your claim? I had no idea what Gamma was going on about early, but figured it had to be something role related since I couldn't see any play reason to make that link.

3) Ascetic. As I already stated, that is a way to weaken a role far more often than not. What else is Gamma effecting? I don't think he can be a red herring since that would be a massive curveball by the mod. Throw in a very rare role (enabler) and then give it an ever more rare modifier (ascetic) and then make it useless? Doubt it. He has to be playing some part in this game, and scum having that modifier makes little sense as it doesn't really benefit them in any way, even if an ideal situation occurs (like cop targets ascetic) as its not a clear, just a "there might be a RB" and if Gamma claimed would likely get them lynched. So its probably a town modifier, and it pretty much would only work on something like a cop. Its why I kept trying to push just incase he was lying and was a more believable one shot or something.

Not as much on a direct correlation, but a PR claim D1 is a bit more likely from scum than from town. Town wont (shouldn't) fake claim as VT. Scum who are going to be lynched without a PR claim will claim a PR at a higher frequency than exist in the game. Its not big, but it more works counter to this. A VT claim is disproportionally likely to come from town D1 when it the first player ran up.

Anyways tl;dr

My role wording, him setting up ideal scum resolutions and assuming he will be around D2 to execute it, ignoring what seems like what would be an obvious cop breadcrumb from somepony who was planning it, ascetic not really balancing with a full cop.... I think he is scum.

Really I think there is a better chance he is a VT who saw this work once and now tries to do anti-town play than he is a real cop. Either way I needed to claim here because I basically wreck a scum claim, become basic conf-town due to it and am a role that isn't even a threat to scum. That's a win-win in my book since they have to take me out or hunt other roles.

Lets lynch him now please and thank you. That was not cop play. That was somepony trying to act like a cop.
His cop claim apparently contradicts some of the language in your role PM, and he was your top suspicion before he claimed cop. And you're still viewing him as more likely VT than scum? I don't like this. I don't like this at all.
In post 1105, Rainbowdash wrote:
krylea wrote:
In post 1086, Human Sequencer wrote:Grey didn't switch anything up. Grey posted that he -was- leaving something out. His story is consistent start to finish.
No it isn't. Grey clearly implied that the missing piece of his role had some natural connection with another player - he specifically mentioned a counterpart. X-shot does not have a natural connection with another player, unless he is
still leaving things out
.
*ding ding ding*

What is the counterpart to a cop? Miller.
What is the counterpart to a X-Shot Cop? Still Miller.

Two X-Shot Cops is going to be a massively townsided setup because you get two N1 investigations. You can have a backup/deputy but why would he think im trying to counter with that?

Grey probably has me pegged as miller and is getting bailed out by HS here.
This is not what Grey's saying. He's saying that with ascetics and if he's only an x-shot cop, he'd expect that there might be a second weakened investigative role. Rainbow Dash asking about if Grey had any limitations made Grey think that she may be the other investigative role (and thus his counterpart). Miller + Ascetics + Shot limitations is three different ways the cop's crippled. A second investigative role implies better balance. Here's the background for Grey's line of thinking which I think makes sense.

In post 1041, -Grey- wrote:
In post 1039, TheRealGin-N-Tonic wrote:
In post 1037, -Grey- wrote:
In post 1004, Rainbowdash wrote:@Grey - Last chance to add anything else to your claim that you may have been missing.

Im still convinced grey is scum and he is caught for both game actions he hasn't realized yet and something else that im not going to say until he responds to this just incase he decided to leave out something critical in his claim because there is some stuff that doesn't add up.
Oh I've totally left something out of my claim, no doubt about that.

The question is, how do
you
know that?
I detect a storm brewing
No, not really. If my hunch is right, Rainbow might be my counterpart. It's the only way he should know about my limitation. There's no reason to think scum would.

I do wonder, however, why he would choose to discuss this today. His timing is utter shit.
In post 1080, -Grey- wrote:Ascetic(s) + Miller vs
x-shot
cop?

I DON'T FUCKING THINK SO
Taken alone, I don't think it's impossible that there's a miller, ascetics, and shot limitations because of the likely existence of a second (or 3rd?) PR. It's just that RainbowDash and Grey aren't the miller and cop together because of the disagreement on guilty/not guilty vs. mafia/not mafia.
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Post Post #1183 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:15 am

Post by Naomi-Tan »

UNVOTE: Just had a thought. Given that Gray claimed cop All I gotta do is wait till tomorrow. Unless there is no kill I can be sure there town. So yeah I think we dont need to deal with this till tomorrow.
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Post Post #1184 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:17 am

Post by Naomi-Tan »

In post 1183, Naomi-Tan wrote:UNVOTE: Just had a thought. Given that Gray claimed cop All I gotta do is wait till tomorrow. Unless there is no kill I can be sure there town. So yeah I think we dont need to deal with this till tomorrow.
Wow that was poorly written let me try again

Given they claimed cop one of two things will happen tonight
Reds will shoot Grey
or Greys death will be negated by a saving role
This means if Grey is telling the truth there will either be a no kill or a cops corpse. So unless neither of those things happens I don't think we need to do a grey lynch.
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Post Post #1185 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:18 am

Post by TwoFace »

Ircher. Are you a havingfitz alt?
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Post Post #1186 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:24 am

Post by Asphodel »

In post 1170, Alisae wrote:
In post 1169, Naomi-Tan wrote:
In post 1168, Alisae wrote:Next question: What if scum had no Ascetics?

This theory falls apart if they do btw.
Not really I said my last thing as if Green had the Ascetic.
I feel like scum not having Ascetics is possible and the reason that Rainbow doesn't want them claiming is because it's a step closer for us building a stronger townblock for us to lead lynches off of.
With that said tho, this falls apart if they do have Ascetics, which then I feel like Rainbow would want Ascetics to claim so that his own Ascetics could blend in with more ease.
This is wrong. Pretty sure town has no ascetics, or they would've claimed already. Esp. given the cop claim that's out there. Also idk typical role composition and stuff that well on MS but I'm thinking there are very few scum powers that are hindered by town asceticism. It's mostly town investigative roles that would be hindered by asceticism. I'm kinda talking out of my ass here though, I rarely play closed setups and I don't think I've ever played a closed setup with ascetics.
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Post Post #1187 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:26 am

Post by TheRealGin-N-Tonic »

So here is where I'm perplexed.

RainbowDash, under no pressure, no one voting her, declares that she
knows
Grey is hiding about something that literally no other player thought of. We then go on to her revealing she's Miller. Now, as RD!town, I can see the play being that she thinks she caught scum fakeclaiming. As RD!scum, I see no real reason as to why RD would feel the need to go under an assumption that Grey would be more than a general cop and hope she got it completely right with a miller on the off chance that it get's Grey Mislynched;
Not forgetting to take into consideration that as RD!scum, she could have simply kept her mouth shut about it and killed him that night instead of setting up this 1v1 where either X or Y is apparently scum.

So logically, I'm reading RD!town because I don't see the motivation to do all this as scum.

As for Grey, ya'll know my opinion that I don't fuck with a cop claim early on and won't lynch till D2 or so on. The vibe I'm picking up from him being readily knowledgeable about the specifications of his roles makes my gut tell me he's town. Also the sort of general cockiness showed early on feels like a new player with a sense of bravado because he got a PR role and he knows he's special.

I shit you not I'm thinking this whole thing could be a TvT

and with Asphodel telling me him lynching a scum would push for town cred, essentially being a trust tell, I don't buy it for shit and I'm willing to spend today focusing much more on him than on the cop/miller situation.
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Post Post #1188 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:49 am

Post by Asphodel »

So what's your position on why I'm scummy? Is it that I was trying to send a secret message to scum partners that I wouldn't go after them, or is it scummy that I thought I'd get towncred for lynching scum if I posted that beforehand?
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Post Post #1189 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:53 am

Post by TheRealGin-N-Tonic »

Those are two possibilities and both or one can be true, ergo why I'm going to look deeper into your ISO and interactions with other players.
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Post Post #1190 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:08 am

Post by Asphodel »

Well they can't both be true :/
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Post Post #1191 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:13 am

Post by TheRealGin-N-Tonic »

You tell your scummates that you won't be pushing them, that can hold true.

You then also have the statement, as you said, waiting for town cred if you "catch" a scum. If you're telling me you've never bussed someone...
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Post Post #1192 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:19 am

Post by Asphodel »

Well I'm kind of a shitty scum partner if I'm telling my scum buddies I don't plan on going for them while at the same time planning on getting towncred for when I lynch their asses. Both seem kinda silly to me. I think it's way more plausible that I saw Naomi giving out an intro- type "here's how I play" post. Then thought to myself that I should do the same, especially since I have a distinctive scum game that won't be on display here since I drew town.
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Post Post #1193 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:21 am

Post by TheRealGin-N-Tonic »

If that's the case, lay out your scum game and your scum games so I can read them today. You have my attention all day so please talk to me.
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Post Post #1194 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:24 am

Post by Asphodel »

All right, here we go. You ready for a big post? I'll probably cut it off to the last 10 scum games. Unfortunately the forum I played most often on has a really shitty voting system which is just bolding (and sometimes reddening) the votes. It also has a fairly shitty iso system, where you just have to alphabetize the posts. I'll prioritize finishing my vote post first, then get to your concerns, then finish my reads list.
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Post Post #1195 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:28 am

Post by Asphodel »

In post 845, All Alone wrote:
In post 704, Alisae wrote:
In post 703, Asphodel wrote:can we not bring it back?
This makes me want to, but I'm comfortable on the All Alone wagon. After all, I'm probably going to be All Alone on it.
This isn't a town mindset. If Alisae is town and genuinely thinks I'm the best lynch for today, it's unlikely they'd be this comfortable with me being a vanity wagon. Townies get frustrated when their preferred lynch isn't gaining traction, whereas scums are much more okay with staying out of the limelight.
In post 845, All Alone wrote:
In post 772, Alisae wrote:
Rando wrote:I will ALWAYS make the point that pushing on fake slips is a scumtell, in every single game I ever play. Because it's been a very reliable tell for me. I'll let you in on a couple of my other tricks as well; being "excited" about the game when the general mood is depressed or uninterested to the point of wanting to abandon is a scumtell. Claiming an investigative PR and making a lot of content about who you're going to check the following night (especially framing it as an fos ie "For that I'm going to check YOU tonight") is a scumtell. Jumping on people for too quickly commenting on a nightkill is a scumtell. These are all things I will pretty much always points out when they happen, regardless of my alignment.

Scum love having a "justified" vote. Instinctively, they look for a vote where they can lean back on a "factual" basis. A "slip" is a perfect example. When you push on a slip, you're no longer making your own read, you're just saying A therefore B. There is no read, you're presenting it as a fact. And when the person you push flips town, you don't have to defend your "read" being wrong, you can just use that justification you built as a scape-goat. It's what scum subconsciously do ALL THE TIME. Yes, sometimes town will mistakenly think they've found a scumslip. Players like Mathblade are notorious for that kind of play. But as a general rule it's a scum tactic.
^ Something a player that I respect once told me.
I also have a hard time believing that town-Alisae believes this strongly that slip-hunting is scummy, yet has said
absolutely nothing
about TwoFace's attack on Naomi. TwoFace has only accused Naomi of slipping somewhere around
eighty million times
, so there's no way Alisae can have missed it. There's really no good reason for town-Alisae to be ignoring TwoFace here. But as scum looking for a reason to push the Grey wagon, it makes a lot more sense for Alisae to use this against Grey while ignoring TwoFace.
Which makes sense until you realize that 2 hours earlier Alisae posted a readslist where she put TwoFace in her second-highest tier of suspicion.
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Post Post #1196 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:30 am

Post by Asphodel »

Whoops, I really need to stop having more than one tab open.

All Alone gets his own post because I'm switching my vote to him.
VOTE: All Alone

I feel like I've seen people townreading him because they think he's scumhunting well. Look at what he's actually doing though.

Here is a timeline of All Alone's opinions: TwoFace is scummy. GammaEmerald is scummy. Asphodel is scummy. Alisae is scummy. RainbowDash is scummy. The closest he gets to reading anyone town is saying "I honestly don't get a sense of disingenuity from Ircher's ISO". That's not even really a townread. It's clear from the way he pursues both me and Alisae that he's only trying to get people lynched, not sort them.

Look back on his posts, everything he says about me and Alisae is negative, and a lot of it is ticky-tacky stuff.

Going back to his original accusation of me in 182. This is the meat of the accusation.
I really don't like this progression from Asphodel here. Asphodel accuses Ircher of faking a town read on Gamma, Ircher provides evidence that he was indeed townreading Gamma, and then Asphodel backs into a weird stance of "oh well in that case you shouldn't have been townreading him" that doesn't really follow from his original position. It reads like Asphodel is trying to force a scumread more than he's trying to gamesolve.
Then he adds on:
In post 195, All Alone wrote:In particular, this quote from Asphodel's 177 bothers me:
Asphodel wrote:a scumread you thought was legitimate, or not totally baseless, or whatever.
If town-Asphodel is genuinely scumreading Ircher, I don't think he would write off Ircher's position as "or whatever" like that. Townies don't tend to be that apathetic towards their scumreads' positions. Townies need to know what their scumreads' positions are, it's the whole reason they're scumreading them!

But if Asphodel is scum, it makes a lot more sense for him to not care what Ircher's position is here. For scum-Asphodel, the important thing is to make Ircher look bad, and dismissing his read on Gamma as "or whatever" does a much better job of that.
VOTE: Asphodel
This is silly. He spends more words complaining about my use of the phrase "or whatever" than he does making the real accusation. In a later posts, he adds in the following three weak addenda to his suspicion of me:
In post 875, All Alone wrote:
In post 850, Asphodel wrote:So I've still got a vote on Ircher.
I don't like this. In my experience scum are more likely to just "suddenly remember" who they're voting than town. Outside of RVS, it's very unlikely that a townie forgets who they're voting for in the first place.
In post 850, Asphodel wrote:I do think there have been a lot of things he's done that look pretty scummy, but my suspicion of him has been mitigated by
In post 676, Ircher wrote:Also:

Ascetic should claim now. Failure to do so is an auto-lynch in the future should you be proven to be an ascetic.
which I feel is a risky post coming from scum.
What even is this. Ircher's post here isn't really risky, it's just standard play when town wants a claim. I really can't see a townie who was genuinely skeptical of Ircher dropping that skepticism because of this post.
In post 850, Asphodel wrote:So I'll vote VOTE: Flubbernugget who I've actually liked more the more I've seen from him, but whose original vote on the me wagon along with his strange intro make me suspicious.
I don't like this either. I don't see a town motive for voting someone, and then immediately following it up with a punch-pull like that. When townies vote, regardless of whether it's for lynching, pressure, information, or even just spite, they usually want that vote to have the maximum possible effect. The immediate punch-pull comes off like Asphodel isn't motivated by any of those things. Scums are mush more happy to avoid getting into a fight, and I think that's exactly why Asphodel worded his Flubber vote this way.
Which boil down to:
1. Asphodel's acting like he forgot who he was voting for
2. Asphodel is softening on Ircher for a quote I don't think warrants it.
3. After admitting he doesn't like his first two suspicions as much as he used to and promising he'd have a better one tomorrow, Asphodel went to a 3rd suspicion that he also isn't high on.

All Alone does the same thing with Alisae.
In post 422, All Alone wrote:I can definitely support an Alisae lynch today. I believe Alisae knows full well that "voting without conviction" isn't as scummy as they're making it out to be. Why do I believe that? Because town-Alisae has no problem voting without conviction:
In post 215, Alisae wrote:
VOTE: AA9


Now L-1.
In post 216, Alisae wrote:I need more on AA9 before I post my reads, I have no idea what to think of AA9 currently so yeah.
So with that in mind, I really,
really
have a hard time buying that Alisae genuinely believes that voting without conviction is as hardcore-scummy as they're making it out to be. But if Alisae is scum looking for any reason to vote for a townie, the Gin attack makes a lot more sense.
Is the crux of his Alisae suspicion. Then he adds on:
In post 845, All Alone wrote:
In post 704, Alisae wrote:
In post 703, Asphodel wrote:can we not bring it back?
This makes me want to, but I'm comfortable on the All Alone wagon. After all, I'm probably going to be All Alone on it.
This isn't a town mindset. If Alisae is town and genuinely thinks I'm the best lynch for today, it's unlikely they'd be this comfortable with me being a vanity wagon. Townies get frustrated when their preferred lynch isn't gaining traction, whereas scums are much more okay with staying out of the limelight.
Alisae making a joke about being all alone on the all alone wagon isn't "a town mindset".

In post 845, All Alone wrote:
In post 772, Alisae wrote:
I will ALWAYS make the point that pushing on fake slips is a scumtell, in every single game I ever play. Because it's been a very reliable tell for me. I'll let you in on a couple of my other tricks as well; being "excited" about the game when the general mood is depressed or uninterested to the point of wanting to abandon is a scumtell. Claiming an investigative PR and making a lot of content about who you're going to check the following night (especially framing it as an fos ie "For that I'm going to check YOU tonight") is a scumtell. Jumping on people for too quickly commenting on a nightkill is a scumtell. These are all things I will pretty much always points out when they happen, regardless of my alignment.

Scum love having a "justified" vote. Instinctively, they look for a vote where they can lean back on a "factual" basis. A "slip" is a perfect example. When you push on a slip, you're no longer making your own read, you're just saying A therefore B. There is no read, you're presenting it as a fact. And when the person you push flips town, you don't have to defend your "read" being wrong, you can just use that justification you built as a scape-goat. It's what scum subconsciously do ALL THE TIME. Yes, sometimes town will mistakenly think they've found a scumslip. Players like Mathblade are notorious for that kind of play. But as a general rule it's a scum tactic.
^ Something a player that I respect once told me.
I also have a hard time believing that town-Alisae believes this strongly that slip-hunting is scummy, yet has said
absolutely nothing
about TwoFace's attack on Naomi. TwoFace has only accused Naomi of slipping somewhere around
eighty million times
, so there's no way Alisae can have missed it. There's really no good reason for town-Alisae to be ignoring TwoFace here. But as scum looking for a reason to push the Grey wagon, it makes a lot more sense for Alisae to use this against Grey while ignoring TwoFace.
Which seems legitimate until you realize that Alisae had recently posted a suspicion list where she put TwoFace in the second-highest tier of suspicion.
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Post Post #1197 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:13 am

Post by Ircher »

In post 1046, Rainbowdash wrote:
In post 779, Rainbowdash wrote:"Hey look at me, im a miller and this is a convenient breadcrumb"
Im a cheeky pony and I freaking love it.

Yeah im claiming miller. It why I specifically asked about the type of result that he would get since my role is a bit vague regarding it, but heavily implies that he would be getting guilty/not guilty instead of mafia as he suggested.

Now your immediate thought may be as to why I question a cop when my role implies it and there are a few things that I have been thinking as to why I am pretty sure he is lying about this that don't have to do with result wording. In a bit of a spoiler alert, I think there is a better chance that he is fakeclaiming town than a cop.

1) His immediate thought of "we lynch any guilty or 'no result' D2". This is first implies he would be alive which if he is a cop... why does he think this really, especially when he has continually pushed for a fact that there is "no RB" in the game. The assumption that there is no RB is a little interesting, as a RB is a usually a scum counter for a role. The presence of Gamma doesn't increase or decrease the chance for there to be a RB unless the ascetic is scum in which case it dramatically. Either way, what is the worst case for him as scum? Call a guilty on a player like me or another somewhat hard lynch and end up not pulling it off? Best case he got out of D1 lynch, easy D2 lynch and scum is way up.

2) The game he kept referring to he claimed cop in and completely left that out of his reason for crumbing. Its why I have this really bad gut feeling that he might be VT and is completely screwing with us and I am either a red herring role or there is a real cop who was smart and kept their mouth shut. If he is going to refer to a game he claimed cop in (even as not cop) how do you NOT link that into your claim? I had no idea what Gamma was going on about early, but figured it had to be something role related since I couldn't see any play reason to make that link.

3) Ascetic. As I already stated, that is a way to weaken a role far more often than not. What else is Gamma effecting? I don't think he can be a red herring since that would be a massive curveball by the mod. Throw in a very rare role (enabler) and then give it an ever more rare modifier (ascetic) and then make it useless? Doubt it. He has to be playing some part in this game, and scum having that modifier makes little sense as it doesn't really benefit them in any way, even if an ideal situation occurs (like cop targets ascetic) as its not a clear, just a "there might be a RB" and if Gamma claimed would likely get them lynched. So its probably a town modifier, and it pretty much would only work on something like a cop. Its why I kept trying to push just incase he was lying and was a more believable one shot or something.

Not as much on a direct correlation, but a PR claim D1 is a bit more likely from scum than from town. Town wont (shouldn't) fake claim as VT. Scum who are going to be lynched without a PR claim will claim a PR at a higher frequency than exist in the game. Its not big, but it more works counter to this. A VT claim is disproportionally likely to come from town D1 when it the first player ran up.

Anyways tl;dr

My role wording, him setting up ideal scum resolutions and assuming he will be around D2 to execute it, ignoring what seems like what would be an obvious cop breadcrumb from somepony who was planning it, ascetic not really balancing with a full cop.... I think he is scum.

Really I think there is a better chance he is a VT who saw this work once and now tries to do anti-town play than he is a real cop. Either way I needed to claim here because I basically wreck a scum claim, become basic conf-town due to it and am a role that isn't even a threat to scum. That's a win-win in my book since they have to take me out or hunt other roles.

Lets lynch him now please and thank you. That was not cop play. That was somepony trying to act like a cop.
Theres no way you are miller with an Ascetic Enabler around.
VOTE: Rainbow
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Post Post #1198 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:18 am

Post by Ircher »

In post 1054, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 1051, TheRealGin-N-Tonic wrote:I almost want to say Ircher supersaturates my scumdar to the point where he does a full circle around the meter and is back to being townie.
No, don't fall into this trap.
More shade throwing.
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Post Post #1199 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:20 am

Post by Ircher »

In post 1059, Rainbowdash wrote:
In post 1049, Gamma Emerald wrote:@Rainbow: if you believe me about my claim Ircher should be scummy to you.
As odd as it may seem given what I am currently pushing, I tend to pride myself more on town read than on scum reads. If you have ever seen me play I will absolutely defend somepony I think is town to no end when I read them as town, even if that's not a popular read I am usually able to get them off the block. I was reading Ircher as one of my strongest town reads for quite a while, so this sudden descent of him is giving me fits since I don't know if he actually is just confused about what is going on or had happened to luck into hitting a few of my town tells in the early game.

Really im not sure if he just doesn't understand that the only way I really think you are scum is if you are ungodly creative with that role claim/are true claiming as scum and ascetic is scum or there is none. Its hard to sometimes judge since your role really is that rare.... in easily over 100 games here this is maybe the third time I have seen this role pop up.

Removed from your claim, you would be more of a null read to me, but that claim I don't see being fabricated, and if you had the guts to claim that as scum more power to you. That's really the only reason I have you as solid town here.

Either way, my vote is VERY firmly planted. I don't see Grey as town. As said already, I see him as more likely VT who tired to get cute than cop here.

@Ircher - Explain the scum motivation for Gamma to claim what he did for me.
I think he 's trueclaiming as scum.

And, I changed my mind about the miller claim -- its a possibility.
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