2016 NFL Football

[PokerFace]

I got bored and have been messing around with http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

According to http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture TB can still make the playoffs but I don't see how that is. I've tried a lot of scenarios but none seem to work. WAS has to lose but one of GB and Det has to win. Even if they tie, I don't see TB getting in via the playoff machine. So is the NFL.com Playoff picture wrong? Does TB have a chance or not?

[racefan12]

TB can get in if like 7 different games fall correctly but ESPN'S playoff machine has been handling the strength of victory tiebreaker wrong all season so it wouldn't surprise me if it was still wrong.

Edit for link: http://m.buccaneers.com/news/article-sm ... adcd8921f4

[shaft.ed]

it working
you just have to know the cheat code
NYG-WAS tie is the weird one

[PokerFace]

I thought WAS losing was a requirement. I guess not. Giants are likely to sit players as they can't move up or down. They'd sooner give WAS the game than force a tie. NYG certainly won't go all in trying to win. How many QB's just broke legs? I'm willing to bet Eli does not play the second half. He might not play at all for the reasons I gave.

I have been told some other matches need to go TB's way.
SEA < SF (not happening)
JAGS < IND (Will happen)
HOU < TEN (Could happen, Houston is not playing for anything just like NYG)

Also DET needs to beat GB. As GB has been "steelering" pretty hard this year (beating good teams but losing to bad teams) AND DET has been pulling off some crazy late game wins this year. I actually think this will happen

So three of the five things that need to go TB's way, could happen. Two of them will not happen.

[Wraith]

It's worse than that for TB. All of this must happen:

TB over CAR
IND over JAX
DAL over PHI
DET over GB
TEN over HOU
SF over SEA

and the real kicker

WAS ties NYG

[Wraith]

So hmm, now that the playoff spots are practically set in stone, I'll take another look at how things might go. And also because some new things have been brought to my attention about Seattle, namely that their pass defense has been absolutely horrendous since Earl Thomas died. For the time being, I'm assuming the Giants and Lions both win this week, meaning GB and DET make the playoffs and WAS narrowly misses out.

AFC

1. NE (14-2)
2. KC (12-4)
3. PIT (11-5)
4. HOU (10-6)
5. OAK (12-4)
6. MIA (10-6)

NFC

1. DAL (14-2)
2. ATL (11-5)
3. SEA (10-5-1)
4. DET (10-6)
5. NYG (11-5)
6. GB (9-7)

Wild Card

PIT > MIA

I think Miami's devastating rout against the Ravens should be enough to prove the Dolphins are playoff pretenders. If you can shut down their run game, the Dolphins implode. The Dolphins ran all over the Steelers in their match-up earlier in the season, but I have a trio of excuses for our loss in that one - firstly, our defense was heavily injured in the middle of the field going into that game, with Cam Heyward and Ryan Shazier (arguably our two best defensive players) out; secondly, the Steelers were still (barely) in control of the game until Ben was injured, at which point the offense totally collapsed and the Dolphins seized the initiative; thirdly, we were on the road. The Steelers have tightened up defensively considerably as we've gotten onto our traditional late season hot streak, especially against the run. If we keep Ajayi contained, the Dolphins shouldn't be able to move the ball very much, especially if Matt Moore is the QB instead of Tannehill. The Steelers are also much stronger at home this year, and this rematch will be in Pittsburgh.

HOU > OAK

Wow...this game might be a spiritual successor to the abominable 2014 match-up between the Lindley-led Cards and the 7-8-1 Panthers. I feel so bad for the Raiders. Nevertheless, I have thought the Raiders were a house of cards for much of the season, and destined to go one-and-done in the divisional round against a good opponent like the Chiefs or Steelers. Their thoroughly mediocre defense has been carried hard by Carr's clutch antics. And now Carr is gone, and the Texans under Savage have looked marginally more capable offensively. The Texans defense, even Watt-less, is also no pushover. McGloin won't cut it, period.

GB > SEA

I think no matter the match-up here - be it GB, DET, or WAS - the Seahawks are going to go down. Their offensive line has been the worst in the league, and without Earl Thomas their defense has been considerably less capable. All three of their potential opponents have very capable pocket-passing QBs, GB most of all - and Rodgers has been on a late-season hot streak as well.

NYG > DET

The Giants are dangerous as hell, make no mistake. All they need is some Playoff!Eli to get themselves to a Super Bowl. Detroit has been extremely inconsistent, especially on defense. I'd probably pick the Giants over GB as well, even though I think that would be much more of a toss-up there.

Divisonal

NE > HOU

This should be a no-brainer. There is no way the Texans offense overcomes the rather alarmingly unheralded Patriots defense.

PIT > KC

We

dismantled

the Chiefs in our early-season match-up. While our offense has been less capable during our late-season streak, our defense has tightened up considerably, as said. I don't think Reid, Smith, and the Chiefs offense can keep up with a consistent-if-not-as-spectacular Steelers offense with a capable and healthy Steelers defense putting up a fight. The Chiefs defense is certainly potent, but our O-Line has been top 3 in the league this year. I'll bet more on Big Ben's horse than Alex Smith's.

DAL > GB

Unless it's the Giants, Dallas should handily defeat whatever opponent shows up here. I think Detroit has a decent chance of an upset, but the Cowboys handled them pretty handily just a week ago as well. But against the Packers, I just don't think the Packers defense can hold back the versatile and explosive Dallas offense.

NYG > ATL

This one is pure toss-up, IMO. It all depends on if Playoff!Eli has shown up at this point. The Giants defense is fantastic, and its secondary is especially dangerous to the pass-heavy Atlanta offense - Landon Collins has had an excellent season, in particular. If Playoff!Eli shows up, I think the Giants win in a narrow but exciting battle; if he remains as inconsistent as during the regular season, I give the slight edge to the Falcons instead. But when it comes to the playoffs, I tend to favor the better defense in general, especially if they have a capable QB at the helm, and that only flips when an elite QB with a capable defense (like the Steelers) is the other choice.

Championship

PIT > NE

This is me being a pure homer. The Pats have had our number throughout the Brady-Belichick era. The Steelers have only ever made the Super Bowl when the Pats were knocked off by another team. But this year, I swear this is it! But really, if our defense keeps playing at the level it has been and the Pats play like they against us during the regular season, we really do have a legitimate shot to win this one. Is it unlikely...yeah. But unlikely things can happen in the NFL. The big wild card here, IMO, is Le'Veon Bell. If the Pats run defense fails to contain him, or we simply grind them into exhaustion, the momentum can shift heavily to our side. But either way, this match-up would be a thriller IMO.

NYG > DAL

I think a lot of people are expecting a Patriots-Cowboys Super Bowl this year. I say fuck that. I say both the favorites get upset somewhere along the way. And the Giants have proven themselves Dallas kryptonite. I'm simply convinced that we're going to see another astonishing Eli Manning playoff run. I think Dallas is cocky now and will stay cocky going through the playoffs, and it will bite them in the ass. And of course, defense wins championships...and the Giants have one of the best right now.

And that's my prediction for the moment. A Rooney-Mara Super Bowl. And that's probably going to stay my ultimate prediction no matter how Week 17 turns out.

Also I feel like adding that this was one of the funniest things I've seen all season.

[PokerFace]

It's worse than that for TB. All of this must happen:

TB over CAR
IND over JAX
DAL over PHI
DET over GB

TEN over HOU

SF over SEA

and the real kicker

WAS ties NYG

I see the bolded as completely possible. I actually think all of those will happen.

The italic could happen, it really depends on TEN's moral after losing Mariota. They are essentially playing for nothing, no playoff spot, so why play well when shit don't look good? Houston can't really move up or down in seeding. They will have low motivation for playing so I really have no idea who will win. Its gonna be a battle of who wants the win less.

The others will not happen. SF wants good draft pick and SEA wants better seed. SF will let SEA win. And as NYG is locked into the 5th seed, their starters will sit most of the game. NYG will let WAS win. And as WAS has tie breakers over whoever loses between GB and DET, both DET and GB will not make it in.

[PokerFace]

AFC

1. NE (14-2)
2. KC (12-4)
3. PIT (11-5)
4. HOU (10-6)
5. OAK (12-4)
6. MIA (10-6)

NFC

1. DAL (14-2)
2. ATL (11-5)
3. SEA (10-5-1)
4. DET (10-6)
5. NYG (11-5)
6. WAS (9-6-1)

MIA < PIT
OAK > HOU (I am unsure but ultimately its a battle of shity QBs for the prize of losing to NE next round)
WAS < SEA
NYG > DET (Even if GB beats DET, NYG win here)

PIT > KC
OAK < NE
SEA < ATL (Should have beat seatle earlier this year)
NYG < DAL (I am unsure of this game but feel this is most likely.)

PIT < NE
ATL < DAL (If giants get here its anyone's game. If dallas gets here, Zeke will feast on ATL's bad defense.)

DAL < NE (If ATL or DAL get here, they lose. If NYG gets here, they win.)

[shaft.ed]

SF will let SEA win.

I really dont get the idea of 'letting people win'. Yes this is good for the organization, but coaches and players go out there every day with their livelihood on the line. Every game has the potential to swing huge sums of money and possibly their future in the league, especially for an organization going into major rebuild mode.

[Kmd4390]

People think the Raiders are so bad without Carr that they can't even beat Denver this week? I keep seeing them given a 5 seed in these predictions...

[Bella]

PIT > KC

We

dismantled

the Chiefs in our early-season match-up. While our offense has been less capable during our late-season streak, our defense has tightened up considerably, as said. I don't think Reid, Smith, and the Chiefs offense can keep up with a consistent-if-not-as-spectacular Steelers offense with a capable and healthy Steelers defense putting up a fight. The Chiefs defense is certainly potent, but our O-Line has been top 3 in the league this year. I'll bet more on Big Ben's horse than Alex Smith's.

Chiefs have a better record against a marginally tougher schedule than the Steelers. You're putting way too much stock in a single game, early in the season, at Heinz Field instead of Arrowhead. Lest you forget, a week earlier, the Steelers were destroyed by the Eagles, are you saying they're going to the Superbowl?

[pickemgenius]

People think the Raiders are so bad without Carr that they can't even beat Denver this week? I keep seeing them given a 5 seed in these predictions...

I'm more appalled that people would pick JJ Watt less Houston to beat us.

[Wraith]

PIT > KC

We

dismantled

the Chiefs in our early-season match-up. While our offense has been less capable during our late-season streak, our defense has tightened up considerably, as said. I don't think Reid, Smith, and the Chiefs offense can keep up with a consistent-if-not-as-spectacular Steelers offense with a capable and healthy Steelers defense putting up a fight. The Chiefs defense is certainly potent, but our O-Line has been top 3 in the league this year. I'll bet more on Big Ben's horse than Alex Smith's.

Chiefs have a better record against a marginally tougher schedule than the Steelers. You're putting way too much stock in a single game, early in the season, at Heinz Field instead of Arrowhead. Lest you forget, a week earlier, the Steelers were destroyed by the Eagles, are you saying they're going to the Superbowl?

I admit that this being a road game in this scenario is what makes me believe it won't be a pure stomp like in the regular season. But I think there are more factors at play as mentioned - our O-Line's excellence is a factor that cannot be understated.

[PokerFace]

People think the Raiders are so bad without Carr that they can't even beat Denver this week? I keep seeing them given a 5 seed in these predictions...

I'm more appalled that people would pick JJ Watt less Houston to beat us.

I'm not picking HOU in that game. I suppose OAK could beat DEN, and KC beat PIT. But ultimately I see NE as the AFC representative in the superbowl. NFC is the only real question

[D3f3nd3r]

The thing is, with Carr out the Raiders are gonna be rushing the ball a lot. Last time they played, Latavius Murray put up 100+ yards and found the end zone three times. So their offense will definitely be alive somewhat, but only on the ground. Denver probably will allow Latavius to have a similar game.

But on the other end, who knows? The Raiders defense is pathetic, but so are Siemian and Lynch right now. They got 20 points against the Raiders last time, but didn't use either Sanders or Thomas to even close to their potential. Both teams could make something happen...it's a question of how much each team cares/when they sit starters.

[Nero Cain]

but then won't Denver stack the box?

[shaft.ed]

Lest you forget, a week earlier, the Steelers were destroyed by the Eagles

no Bell in that game

[T-Bone]

McGloin is a replacement level QB, the Raiders will be fine.

[Wraith]

rofl our second string is better than the Browns

Also I regret picking the Texans over the Raiders they lost to Matt fucking Cassel

[PokerFace]

You had some starters still in so I'm really not surprised PIT won

How many starters did texans have in? I still think HOU will lose next week, but I don't feel this game can give an accurate estimate of how bad texans may be without starter amounts factored in

[Wraith]

> Already clinched playoff berth
> Eliminate division rival anyway

Giants are pure evil lol

[D3f3nd3r]

Just a heads up, the NFL Playoff Prediction contest will be going up in Mish Mash tomorrow.

EDIT: It's up!

[shaft.ed]

that had to be one of the most insignificant week 17's I can remember

[Wraith]

ayy so my final record for predictions this season was 161-94

That's a .631 average ayy-oh

[PokerFace]

I am surprised giants went all in on redskins. Since the redskins loss was early in the day, things got boring fast.

NFC was harder to guess in regular season than AFC. Playoffs gonna be same way