Mini Normal 1861: Musical Mafia (TOWN WIN)

[Naomi-Tan]

The other thing about Flubber is that he took massive's cop claim in stride. As I did initially as well. Given we were both scum reading massive, and I'm town I should probably assume he's town as well?

Hmm. I also can't really decide whether or not scum would be more likely to accept the claim or dispute it. I've already decided that flubber and massive are very unlikely to be partners. Now scum flubber would therefore know that massive is telling the truth so he might think it's not worth arguing about. There are still enough people with a bit of suspicion that he can get lynched. (me or Naomi, who I think is also an unlikely teammate).

However scum benefit from confusion- a town that strongly believes massive is a town that has fewer suspects and thus more chance of finding a scum team.

Town flubber is probably caught between his initial distrust of massive and his willingness to accept claims. So yeah I'm not sure

the scum team have confused you. go read everything you can and reaffirm why you thought that way to begin with.

[Kairal]

So it seems I'm your next ml target Kairal?
I'l get caught up during the weekend.
Meanwhile what is everyone's read on Kairal?

Ok so my main scumread on culted comes from him hving useful interactions for a scum team with Flubber and massive. I'm not scum reading either of them right now it's a little hard to justify a culted read.

Do you think scum shadow would post this about me if we were on a team culted?

[Kairal]

Not bad advice Naomi.

[Aj The Epic]

If you're going to say you're not scumreading Flubber/culted/massive, I'm gonna want a new reads list from you.

[Kairal]

This is fair.

I'm thinking.

[Kairal]

Dier has kindly reminded me that my reads suck. However this game we've had 4 major wagons- massive, Io, Newman and Jin. We've definitely been wrong about 3 of those and I believe we're wrong about the 4th. I also have no really clear reads on anyone despite it being Day 3.

This suggests to me that we are dealing with a very good scum team.

Therefore rather than trying to scumread them individually I think the better plan is to look for a pattern.

Specifically a good scum team will never want to be caught holding the same position. I suspect we will almost never (or maybe never at all) find an argument that all 3 scum players agree with. So I'm going to look through the thread and see if I can find a pattern that fits.

[Kairal]

Vote Count 1.12 LYNCH

6 - Io: Dierfire, MiniDeathStar, Aj The Epic, HellloooNewman, -Grey-, I Am Innocent, culted

0 - Dierfire:
1 - HellloooNewman: massive
0 - MiniDeathStar:
0 - Kairal:
0 - Flubbernugget:
0 - I Am Innocent:
0 - Secret Agent Jin:
0 - Shadow_Step:
0 - -Grey-:
0 - culted:
4 - massive: Flubbernugget, Secret Agent Jin, Io, Kairal
0 - Aj The Epic:
0 -No Lynch:
Not voting: Shadow_Step
culted FoSes Io, Dierfire, HellloooNewman, MiniDeathStar, Kairal, Flubbernugget, I am Innocent, Secret Agent Jin, Shadow_Step, -Grey-, massive, and Aj The Epic
MiniDeathStar FoSes Flubbernugget, Io, massive, and HellloooNewman
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline is (expired on 2016-12-19 23:30:00)

Alright now I think scum are particularly unlikely to want to be caught on a town wagon- no way all 3 of them voted for Io. There must be at least one scum who didn't vote for Io.

That means: Me,massive, flubber, Naomi

[Kairal]

Votecount 2.02

I Am Innocent (1)

ShadowStep ,

Secret Agent Jin (6)

culted , I Am Innocent , Flubbernugget , massive , -Grey- , Kairal LYNCH!

massive (1)

Aj The Epic ,

Not Voting (3)

Dierfire , MiniDeathStar , Secret Agent Jin ,

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch!

[/size]

For this one it's Dier, BV, Naomi and AJ

[Kairal]

December 15, 2016 - 12:00 PM (GMT)

Day 1

In the prolonged absense of the mayor, Gamma Emerald, the citizens of Murdertown tentatively
recounted the vote slips themselves and updated the bulletin board.

HellloooNewman (L-1)

: culted, Aj the Epic, -Grey-, I Am Innocent, Shadow_step, Kairal

massive (L-4)

: Flubbernugget, Secret Agent Jin, Io

Io (L-5)

: Dierfire, MiniDeathStar

MiniDeathStar (L-6)

: HellloooNewman

Secret Agent Jin (L-6)

: massive

Not voting:

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 1 actions:

December 20, 2016 - 3:30 AM (GMT)

You have (expired on 2016-12-20 03:30:00) to discuss and decide on a lynch.

Unofficial Vote Count

Not an official VC but I'm pretty sure I checked it at the time and it was right.

Not actually a lynch so the minority this time is: culted, Aj, IamI, Naomi and me

[Aj The Epic]

...What? You went from people off wagons to now people on wagons

[Kairal]

Vote Count 1.08

1 - Io: Dierfire
0 - Dierfire:
1 - HellloooNewman: culted
2 - MiniDeathStar: Shadow_Step, massive
0 - Kairal:
0 - Flubbernugget:
0 - I Am Innocent:
0 - Secret Agent Jin:
1 - Shadow_Step: HellloooNewman
1 - -Grey-: I Am Innocent
0 - culted:
5 - massive: Flubbernugget, MiniDeathStar, -Grey-, Secret Agent Jin, Kairal
1 - Aj The Epic: Io
0 -No Lynch:
Not voting: Aj The Epic
culted FoSes Io, Dierfire, HellloooNewman, MiniDeathStar, Kairal, Flubbernugget, I am Innocent, Secret Agent Jin, Shadow_Step, -Grey-, massive, and Aj The Epic
MiniDeathStar FoSes Flubbernugget, Io, and massive
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline is (expired on 2016-12-19 23:30:00)

This one is me, Flubber or BV.

[Kairal]

...What? You went from people off wagons to now people on wagons

In theory there should at least one scum on and off each wagon. I'm just looking at the minority (since that's easier to narrow down)

[Kairal]

Now no VC for this last one. massive's cop claim. I think scum are unlikely to all be on one side of this argument- especially since as I said earlier scum could consider either position to be beneficial.

With no VC I'm just going on memory but I believe it's: Aj and Naomi against, culted, flubber, Dier and IamI for. I guess you can just chuck me into whichever camp.

[Kairal]

Ok so cleaning the list up a little for my own benefit I've removed BV, massive and myself.

Io lynch: Flubber or Naomi must be scum. On the majority side: one of Dier, culted, IamI and AJ must be scum

Jin lynch: Dier, AJ or Naomi must be scum. On the flipside: one of culted, IamI and flubber.

Newman (not an actual lynch so I have less confidence on this one): Culted, Aj, IamI. The other side is Flubber or Dier.

Massive (also not a lynch and not at L-1 so even less confidence): Flubber. The other 5 against of course. That being: AJ, culted, Dier,

Cop claim (not a lynch but I still have some confidence in it because everyone but myself has been fairly definitive with their positions): Naomi, Aj. Alternatively: Flubber Culted, Dier, IamI.

[Kairal]

Ok so cleaning the list up a little for my own benefit I've removed BV, massive and myself.

Io lynch: Flubber or Naomi must be scum. On the majority side: one of Dier, culted, IamI and AJ must be scum

Jin lynch: Dier, AJ or Naomi must be scum. On the flipside: one of culted, IamI and flubber.

Newman (not an actual lynch so I have less confidence on this one): Culted, Aj, IamI. The other side is Flubber, Dier or Naomi

Massive (also not a lynch and not at L-1 so even less confidence): Flubber. The other 5 against of course. That being: AJ, culted, Dier, IamI or Naomi

Cop claim (not a lynch but I still have some confidence in it because everyone but myself has been fairly definitive with their positions): Naomi, Aj. Alternatively: Flubber Culted, Dier, IamI.

Edit

[Kairal]

Now... what use is this? I feel like we can say with high confidence that the scum team would not be entirely for Jin or Io's lynch. That rules out any combo consisting entirely of Dier, Culted, IamI and AJ. Jin's lynch rules out culted, Flubber and IamI.

On the other side we can see that Flubber is the only one on massive's lynch (obviously I don't suspect myself). I've criticized that argument previously but I think lining it up with Io's lynch gives it a bit more credence.

Io's lynch tells me that Flubber or Naomi must be scum. The cop argument suggests that Naomi or Aj must be scum. If we lynch Naomi and she's town that implicates two scum.

In short Naomi or Flubber look like a good lynch.

[Aj The Epic]

Christ that looks like my middle school science fair project.

[Kairal]

Now then. If Naomi is town then Aj and Flubber are buddies. Checking through the list there's nothing that refutes that. Interestingly Flubber and Aj never agree. Not a sure sign of anything but interesting. Also worth noting there's nothing that rules out all Naomi and Flubber being buds.

Anyway it basically comes down to whether or not I want the more likely scum (Flubber) or the greater information (Naomi). I guess I'm fine with either.

I'll go with Naomi I think

VOTE: Naomi

[Kairal]

Christ that looks like my middle school science fair project.

Uh... did you get high marks for this project? Please say yes.

[Aj The Epic]

No, I'm not really that impressed with the methodology. The basis of your hunt here (scum will not vote with other scum on any wagon) isn't necessarily guaranteed. Certainly as a way to 'reform' your entire reads list, this isn't a good start. Your entire basis has nothing necessitating it to be correct in the first place which means that it's likely to be flawed even from a math standpoint, before we get to the fact that through the entire thing, your own reads and the interactions of those involved play very little part.

[Kairal]

I see. Well I feel reasonably confident that scum won't clearly work as a block. The entire point is to try and find a way to hunt scum that doesn't rely on my reads or views on their interactions since I haven't been confident about that at all so far.

For what it's worth both Flubber and Naomi have been reasonably suspicious today and this different approach seems to indicate that suspicion was well founded.

[Kairal]

Yeah lets isolate this to one thing at a time. Do you believe that every scum player voted to lynch Io?

[Aj The Epic]

Quite the opposite. I think scum completely avoided it.

[Kairal]

Hmm so your current thinking is... me massive and flubber? Or are you thinking that massive lied about BV?

[Kairal]

Hmm unless culted is scum I don't have the votes to get a lynch without a bus. Aj is already voting Flubber.

Well lets play bussing wars - you think I'm on a team with Flubber and I think you're on a team with Flubber. Lets both vote him and see who blinks first.

VOTE: Flubber