Micro 667 - Chosen Mafia (Game Over)
-
-
Creature Solve This Game
- Solve This Game
- Solve This Game
- Posts: 46072
- Joined: January 26, 2016
- Location: Lands of Fire
-
-
Ümläüt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1145
- Joined: October 26, 2015
- Location: Austin, TX
So, I think we mostly agree our two candidates today are Tenshii and TTTT.
If Tenshii is scum this makes it more likely that TTTT is chosen; the reverse is not true. So this might indicate we should lynch Tenshii first, to minimize the chance of hitting chosen given that one of these two is scum.
Of course, I'm the one saying this, and the same reasoning says that if I'm scum Tenshii is likely to be chosen. So you might not trust that I'm arguing in good faith.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
-
Ümläüt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1145
- Joined: October 26, 2015
- Location: Austin, TX
-
-
Human Sequencer allMafia Scumall
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3501
- Joined: September 23, 2016
- Pronoun: all
-
-
TTTT Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5323
- Joined: October 4, 2016
-
-
Human Sequencer allMafia Scum
-
-
Ümläüt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1145
- Joined: October 26, 2015
- Location: Austin, TX
This isn't actually what happened though.In post 954, TTTT wrote:@Human
your theory is that in a two-scum game scum!TTTT hard-pushes his partner then jumps off the wagon and hard-defends after it looks like the lynch is inevitable?- You pushed on Dave d1 but not hard. You said you wanted him turbo-lynched but never voted him.
- You voted Dave d2 but only after putting Hiraki to L-1 and only after Dave slipped.
- You unvoted Dave (without any new information about Dave) when enough time had passed that he was clearly not being speed-lynched.
- You continued to say Dave could bescum while not voting him.
- It was not at all obvious that the Dave wagon was going through until he self-hammered.
Alternately, if you're town, you have much less confidence in your reads than you let on. You were suspicious of Dave from the beginning, but overstated your degree of suspicion. When he slipped, you took this as sufficient reason to join his wagon, but then got cold feet. You argued that this was because he was "probably town" but actually you're just afraid of mislynching.Last edited by ChaosOmega on Thu Jan 12, 2017 3:46 am, edited 1 time in total.“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
-
Ümläüt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1145
- Joined: October 26, 2015
- Location: Austin, TX
-
-
Tenshii Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1676
- Joined: June 17, 2016
- Location: California
-
-
Tenshii Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1676
- Joined: June 17, 2016
- Location: California
How did you get these odds?In post 900, Ümläüt wrote:Assuming they keep this up, we have two more lynches to go. We need to either hit Mafia (2/5 chance with random lynch), or two non-chosen townies (1/10 chance with random lynch).-
-
Creature Solve This Game
- Solve This Game
- Solve This Game
- Posts: 46072
- Joined: January 26, 2016
- Location: Lands of Fire
-
-
Tenshii Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1676
- Joined: June 17, 2016
- Location: California
-
-
Ümläüt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1145
- Joined: October 26, 2015
- Location: Austin, TX
In post 959, Tenshii wrote:
How did you get these odds?In post 900, Ümläüt wrote:Assuming they keep this up, we have two more lynches to go. We need to either hit Mafia (2/5 chance with random lynch), or two non-chosen townies (1/10 chance with random lynch).- The set of living players is {M(afia), C(hosen)1, C(hosen)2, T(ownie)1, T(ownie)2}
- Choosing two lynches means choosing a size-two subset thereof.
- There are 10 size-two subsets: {M, C1}, {M, C2}, {M, T1}, {M, T2}, {C1, C2}, {C1, T1}, {C1, T2}, {C2, T1}, {C2, T2}, {T1, T2}
- 4 of these hit the mafioso: {M, C1}, {M, C2}, {M, T1}, {M, T2}
- 1 of these hits both non-chosen: {T1, T2}
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
-
Ümläüt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1145
- Joined: October 26, 2015
- Location: Austin, TX
Note that the lynch order doesn't actually matter, except insofar as if we were to lynch a chosen today the Mafia might decide to kill after all which if anything would slightly improve our chances (under the assumption that we were choosing randomly).“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
-
Ümläüt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1145
- Joined: October 26, 2015
- Location: Austin, TX
-
-
TTTT Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5323
- Joined: October 4, 2016
-
-
Creature Solve This Game
- Solve This Game
- Solve This Game
- Posts: 46072
- Joined: January 26, 2016
- Location: Lands of Fire
-
-
TTTT Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5323
- Joined: October 4, 2016
-
-
Ümläüt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1145
- Joined: October 26, 2015
- Location: Austin, TX
This is your slot, not you, but Misa's push on Creature never really made much sense from a town PoV. Creature's reasoning for suspecting Vedith as chosen was fairly transparent and he had explained it by the time Misa voted.In post 967, TTTT wrote:before I'm lynched
plz show how any of my pushes/votes were beneficial towards a scum wincon“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
-
Tenshii Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1676
- Joined: June 17, 2016
- Location: California
We could end the game rn.In post 966, Creature wrote:Though, I kinda wished we could end the game rn.-
-
Ümläüt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1145
- Joined: October 26, 2015
- Location: Austin, TX
Is anything else going to happen today?
It seems early to end it, but everyone has posted and no one seems to have anything else they want done. Creature and Human are both pretty obvtown so I'm confident that we win by lynching everyone whose name starts with T.
I also think I have a townier record than Tenshii, so I'm not worried about a 1v1 there.
Intent: TTTT
By the way, if TTTT should flip regular townie, the mafia can't NK. Can we all agree that in that case we should just skip the night phase?“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”-
-
TTTT Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5323
- Joined: October 4, 2016
-
-
Creature Solve This Game
- Solve This Game
- Solve This Game
- Posts: 46072
- Joined: January 26, 2016
- Location: Lands of Fire
-
-
Tenshii Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1676
- Joined: June 17, 2016
- Location: California
FTFYIn post 970, Ümläüt wrote:Creature and Human are both pretty obvtown so I'm confident that we win by lynching everyone whose namestartsends with T.-
-
Tenshii Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1676
- Joined: June 17, 2016
- Location: California
Copyright © MafiaScum. All rights reserved.