Large Normal 199: L'Hôtel Pleuvoir (Fin)

[Pine]

I was asking Elbrin for his scumpool

Under his theory, only you or Tywin could be scum. If town!Pine, then scum!Tywin and dumb Pine. If scum Pine, then scum Pine.

This, yeah. I guess pine could be dumb but I've thought higher of his play than that so far and I'd think that if he blocked someone, and then a mod error announced that someone died who shouldn't have, that he'd figure it out realquik and make tywin dead.

Pine, your response to this?

Actually, my impression from the mod error was that someone died who oughtn't have, such as Cephrir forgetting to apply the Bodyguard effect. My guess? Gerry bodyguarded Alisae and Cephrir flipped him, realizing after the fact that he should have flipped Gerry instead. With Alisae revealed, Cephrir consults with List Mod to see how to correct things, is advised to go ahead with flips as they are, and does so.

[Elbirn]

And what is your theory?

That his theory, which requires A.) potential roleblocker and scum Rolecop OR B.) lying scum RB and VT elsewise is heavily just playing a card of 'let's lynch both'. Or, in other words, his theory isn't in any effect a theory, it just plays both sides of the possible coin.

Except that I've never proposed a rolecop and have railed against theories of that because scum already had a motion detector fulfilling that utility.

I also don't see how I'm "playing both sides" when I've only ever advocated for a dead pine

[Elbirn]

I was asking Elbrin for his scumpool

Under his theory, only you or Tywin could be scum. If town!Pine, then scum!Tywin and dumb Pine. If scum Pine, then scum Pine.

This, yeah. I guess pine could be dumb but I've thought higher of his play than that so far and I'd think that if he blocked someone, and then a mod error announced that someone died who shouldn't have, that he'd figure it out realquik and make tywin dead.

Pine, your response to this?

Actually, my impression from the mod error was that someone died who oughtn't have, such as Cephrir forgetting to apply the Bodyguard effect. My guess? Gerry bodyguarded Alisae and Cephrir flipped him, realizing after the fact that he should have flipped Gerry instead. With Alisae revealed, Cephrir consults with List Mod to see how to correct things, is advised to go ahead with flips as they are, and does so.

You can guess now that the last surviving mason tried to sacrifice himself to save the vig (I don't know that I'd do that as mason, but sure), but what did you think at the time?

[Pine]

I assumed that someone who was supposed to survive was instead flipped. There was insufficient evidence for an allegation, as I was guessing there was a protective role in play. Besides, are you really suggesting that I didn't go hard for Tywin, who is the guy I blocked?

[Elbirn]

...You did go for tywin, this is true.

You didn't shout down from the heavens that you had a guilty but you did go after tywin fairly consistently.. save for when you flopped over to sonia but like what is my argument going to be now, that you can't have 2 scumreads? You did end the day voting Tywin..counter to scum-nero, but that's a whole other kettle of fish I don't feel like getting into now frankly

I kinda buy your claimed hesitation regarding a belief that there could have been a protective at that point....This kinda checks out actually.

*rubs temples*

Okay, more concerns:

Who's scum now Pine?

Still Tywin. There is absolutely nothing to recommend him as Town, and a lot to say he's scum.

I don't think I believe your Doc claim, tbh. I don't see any reason to hold them back. Not fully decided yet though.

Alternatively, I'm a bit ambivalent on AJ, and Elbirn needs another look.

well anyone else wanna explain how there was no death last night

Roleblock would explain it, as would scum forgetting to send in the kill. It happens more than you might think, especially with only one scum left.

ok then if there is a RBer they should claim lol.

Well, I'm a roleblocker, but I targeted Sonia, so that doesn't actually solve our problem.

Full-claim: 3-shot Roleblocker, I targeted Tywin N2 and N3, Sonia N4. Forgetting to kill occurs to me because it's really the only option that explains things despite Sonia being blocked, and because I forgot to use my power N1.

...So you roleblocked sonia, your other strong scumread, the night of the no kill. But you come into the game, see there was no kill, and your first thought is a chitchat with sonia saying that tywin is still your top scum? Why? What's going through your head piney bay-bee? Walk me through it.

[Pine]

I was simply working my way through it. She was also claiming Doc, so I had to grok the implications. At the time I still had a big hard-on for Tywin, and was tired.

[Pine]

There were also other possibilities to consider, like the possibility of an intentional no-kill, and accidental no-kill, double-checking that I actually sent the block (I forget to take actions I fully intend to take sometimes, which made/makes me consider simple negligence as a possibility, especially as a no-kill is super anti-scum-wincon) etc.

This really isn't complicated. "Not decided" = "Not decided."

[Pine]

You're also quibbling over a 17 minute period of indecisiveness.

[Aj The Epic]

You have YET to answer my question. Are you called a role blocker, or are you called a 3x role blocker, in the bolded colored line?

[Pine]

Sorry AJ I forgot. Town 3-Shot Roleblocker is the full title

[Pine]

Also, its sketchy af that Tywin suddenly has nothing to say. It makes me think he's hoping we rip into each other.

[Aj The Epic]

Yeah the issue with re-reading is reading Tywin is absolute pain in the ass. I'll check Nero/CK/Nos to see if I see anything.

[Pine]

Tywin is the right choice here. Cloudkicker's ISO is still damning.

I could probably be convinced in the direction of 1 scum in {Tywin, Elbirn} and lynching both, though. We've got a ML to burn.

[Aj The Epic]

Reason being? I'm sorta drawing a similar conclusion but I want your reasons for this.

[Elbirn]

You're also quibbling over a 17 minute period of indecisiveness.

I mean if I were in your shoes that day I'd have claimed and gone nutshit on sonia in my first post of the day.

But then you're not me, and had reasons for reasonable doubt...I guess.

UNVOTE:

[Pine]

Reason being? I'm sorta drawing a similar conclusion but I want your reasons for this.

Be more specific?

[Aj The Epic]

Why does CK incriminate Tywin?

[Pine]

How many times do I have to repeat this? ISO me for the full case.

The short version is that CK was a Traitor who knew his scumbuddies. D1, he hard defends Tywin, to the point of derailing wagons on him. Now, scum will happily defend Town if it looks like their lynch is inevitable, in the hopes of getting Towncred from the resulting flip. This doesn't happen if the flip fails to occur, though. Scum seeking to execute this strategy calibrate their defense to that it will be a -losing- effort. They want to defend the target enough so that everyone knows they're TRing the victim, but not so much that they actually stop the lynch. Actually stopping the lynch can backfire on the scum, because now there's all kinds of associatives between them and someone who is widely suspected.

So what do we see from CK's ISO? He doesn't give a soft and failing defense, whiteknighting Tywin without really throwing down. No, he goes all out in Tywin's defense. He attacks the wagon, the people on the wagon, and bizarrely defends Tywin. Remember also that he was looking to signal to the scumteam "Hey, I'm on your side."

All this together is a nearly-incontrovertible arrow pointing at Tywin.

In fact, fuck what I said a few posts ago. I'm not compromising on Elbirn, I will settle for nothing but Tywin today.

[Aj The Epic]

Nero does the same thing multiple times, and Nos never talks about Tywin, but talks to Nero. Which is important because she never talks to Nero in any post. Talks to CK like once. If we assume Tywin scum, Nos just doesn't talk to scum. She talks to Elbrin at least twice.

but you were ok with jumping on me without letting me talk? Why treat me and Tywin differently here?

Wagon speed prob means Tywin is town and thus scum are voting him.

Lapsa 5 (Pine, Gamma Emerald, Titus, Alisae, Elbirn)

Tywin Lannister 5 (Pine, ssbm_Kyouko, Titus, Gamma Emerald, Elbirn)

Like both these wagons were shit and the common names are Pine, Titus, Elbirn so there is scum within those 3. Also funny coincidence that all 3 hold the same spot on both wagons (Pine 1, Titus 3, Elbirn 5)

In the next few posts, he asks Elbrin to talk him into a Sonia/Tywin team and votes Sonia first. Meaning a Sonia flip kinda goes against that (as she flips town). As he's getting lynched, he flips his reads on Tywin.

Much earlier in the game, he also uses Tywin as hard town from the Titus/Tywin exchange. In the same post, Elbrin is way closer to scum. This is post 1513 for reference.

Yeah let's do that.

VOTE: Tywin

Dude's either genius scum or really awful town. And I think it's the former, looking at Nero. Optimistic game-ending vote?

[Aj The Epic]

and Nos never talks about Tywin, but talks to Nero

talks to Elbrin, not nero.

[Cephrir]

Votecount 6.1

Tywin 2 (Pine, Aj)

Not Voting 3 (Titus, Tywin, Elbirn)

3 to lynch.

[Aj The Epic]

Titus, you're needed here.

[Elbirn]

Intent to hammer

If pine is town then the mod error was a roleblocked tywin getting to night kill alisae. This plus all the other evidence against him and so on

[Titus]

Finally, I can do a Tywin lynch.

VOTE: Tywin

If this is wrong, fuck my life.

[Elbirn]

Titus stole my thunder, now I'll never get credit for catching scum

What about MY ego Titus?