Open 35: Big Love - Game over!

[Lawrencelot]

Scared to death, the town checks with how many they are. Like they expected, a person is missing again. Gorrad had a bullet in his head. With still no dead mafia, while they know there are 4 among them, the town starts to lose hope.

Gorrad (replacing Jalyn (replacing FeRnAnDo)), Townie, shot Night 4.

It is now Day 5. With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch.

[Skruffs]

Hmmmm.

[Gorrad]

I read through all this game during the night, and I get killed! Scum, you are cruel and unusual.

[NabakovNabakov]

For being so damn confident all the time, Ether, you are a horrible scumhunter. 0/4 indicates that we're not dealing with hands-off scum, that kind of record takes explicit direction.

Considering a re-read now that I suddenly have oodles of free time.

[ryan]

Erg0: I'd like to hear more from you today. Who is the best lynch choice?

[Bookitty]

For being so damn confident all the time, Ether, you are a horrible scumhunter. 0/4 indicates that we're not dealing with hands-off scum, that kind of record takes explicit direction.

Why are you making the implicit assumption that Ether is town?

[ryan]

BK: Any thoughts on Elmo?

[Bookitty]

My primary suspects based on a reread are ryan, Korlash, Elmo, and Nabakov. All four can't be scum. I think Nabakov's comments on Ether make her less likely scum, and I think that Skruffs' general demeanour under questioning make him unlikely to be scum. If I were going to vote right now, I'd vote for NabakovNabakov, but I want to do more intensive rereads before I'm willing to commit to that.

[NabakovNabakov]

For being so damn confident all the time, Ether, you are a horrible scumhunter. 0/4 indicates that we're not dealing with hands-off scum, that kind of record takes explicit direction.

Why are you making the implicit assumption that Ether is town?

Am I?

If I were going to vote right now, I'd vote for NabakovNabakov, but I want to do more intensive rereads before I'm willing to commit to that.

Could you at least wait until the thread is a round 100 pages before we end it? It would be so dissapointing to only go 97 or 98.

[Bookitty]

For being so damn confident all the time, Ether, you are a horrible scumhunter. 0/4 indicates that we're not dealing with hands-off scum, that kind of record takes explicit direction.

Why are you making the implicit assumption that Ether is town?

Am I?

Criticising her scumhunting ability is only valid if you think she's actually hunting scum, so yes, I think you are. Why are you?

[Skruffs]

Ryan:
Why are you probing around for other people's opinions instead fo offering your own?

[Korlash]

>.> Why do I repeatedly join seemingly unwinnable games?

As for the Nabakov thing I didn't see him implying she was town. in fact I kinda took it was the opposite, implying scum.

I don't 100% agree that Skruff's demeanor should make him unlikely to be scum. I always hate assuming things like that on players who's opinions I tend to listen to and who's views I tend to trust.

As for Ryan and Elmo I have very little to say actually. I would like to hear Ryan's actual thoughts from himself and not from others. Feels like he is fishing around for where the town stands.

[NabakovNabakov]

For being so damn confident all the time, Ether, you are a horrible scumhunter. 0/4 indicates that we're not dealing with hands-off scum, that kind of record takes explicit direction.

Why are you making the implicit assumption that Ether is town?

Am I?

Criticising her scumhunting ability is only valid if you think she's actually hunting scum, so yes, I think you are. Why are you?

I'm noting that her scumhunting (town or scum, she has still been engaging in scumhunting) has been highly inaccurate this game.* This could mean

two

things:
1) The scum are playing well and avoiding the attention of Ether-town.
2) Ether-scum is just pretending to be scumhunting and (unsurprisingly) has consitently off reads

I'm not sure which at the moment.


* I know this applies to just about everybody in the game as well, but Ether has been the most forceful and confident in her reads.

[ryan]

Ryan:
Why are you probing around for other people's opinions instead fo offering your own?

Is asking questions a crime?

[ryan]

As for my thoughts. Erg0 and Elmo are two that I don't have a town read on at the moment. NabNab makes some good points about Ether that I'd like to take a closer look at

[Korlash]

What about me? I woudl like to get a feel where people stand on my predecessor.

[NabakovNabakov]

What about me? I woudl like to get a feel where people stand on my predecessor.

Zindaras seemed pretty pro-town on D1 and semi-led the town. I never really saw much evidence to indicate he was scum. The way he left (and the way his replacement didn't post once) is odd/suspicious, but I'd rather we not go down that route again.

[Elmo]

gorrad i feel for you man

scum are fonz, nabnab, korlash, probably skruffs

merry christmas

[Korlash]

>.> *sniff* that hurts man... You don't even know me... what a big library you must have, all those books you have read simply by... reading... the first... page?

Doesn't it suck when you mess up a joke...

[Skruffs]

Re; Zindaras
There was an issue with The Fonz and Bookitty regarding Zindaras/Sarcastro. Sacred (See I did it!) suspected Zindaras, The Fonz said she suspected Sarcastro. Since Fonz is admitted scum, it leads me to think that Zindaras(Now Korlash) has a higher chance of being scum than Sarcastro (now Elmo).

In as much - between the two, I'll vote Korlash over Elmo.

I don't like Ryan's saying "Me and Fonz have been at each other for a while", as if that indicates he is therefore town. Scum can distance from each other.

I am curious about Ether's change of stance today versus yesterday. She's acting like she's all burnt out, or laying low, or something, whereas yesterday she kind of spearheaded the mislynch on Sikario (in my view and opinion). If she's trying to aviod responsibiliyt for that, she should know better than to think not talking will somehow make everyone else forget she's here.

Erg0 is pinging me, too. Erg0 used my math to enforce the idea that Sikario should be lynched over Fonz - however, I remember saying that it's only worth it to lynch someone other than the couples IF we are reasonably sure, or have a really good reason, to lynch them. Sikario basically got lynched because Guardian requested to be replaced (though the self voting WAS a scummy move, that happened at the end of the day, and there wasn't a strong alternative wagon).

Also:

Statistics are good if they're accurate. They obviously shouldn't be used as the sole basis for deciding a course of action, but they are good for giving information on the general state of the game and which strategies definitely

won't

work. Whether these stats are good is another question - assuming randomness is the only practical way to compile these sorts of scenarios so choosing the lynches in the way that Xdaamno seems to have done doesn't give much useful information. This game is way too large and complex for me try and calculate any sort of probabilities, however.

was said much earlier in the game, which is a pretty big turnaround from this at the end of yesterday:

But simply asking to be replaced doesn't mean anything: guardian asked to be replaced from most of his games at once.
Has anyone looked at manaspryte's track record in mafia games?
This is a weak weak reason to lynch someone over confirmed scum, (fonz).

The reason to lynch someone (anyone) over one of the claimed lovers is basically mathematical - as you said yourself.

This post concerns me greatly.

I'm not liking all of the attention right off the bat on Nabakov today. If he looks like an easy lynch, at lynch or lose, then I'm pretty sure he's NOT the right lynch.

[NabakovNabakov]

I am curious about Ether's change of stance today versus yesterday. She's acting like she's all burnt out, or laying low, or something, whereas yesterday she kind of spearheaded the mislynch on Sikario (in my view and opinion). If she's trying to aviod responsibiliyt for that, she should know better than to think not talking will somehow make everyone else forget she's here.

I was mulling over my suspicions of Ether today (not like there's anything better to do, right?) and I noticed something interesting. Even though she spearheaded the mislynch yesterday, she was also the one who suggested we lynch standard instead of lovers. Assuming Ether-scum was fairly confident of her abilities to get the town to lynch Sikario, why wouldn't let the town go to LyLo before doing it?

[Elmo]

i can't remember why but ryan's probably town

this stuff about ether is dumb

[Korlash]

Right... So... you wana clarify "stuff" and "dumb" or do you like being vague and unhelpful?

And do you usually just randomly call people town and admit you have no reason as to why?

[Ether]

I should reread the thread at some point. I probably

won't,

knowing myself, but that statement was necessary to maintain good form.

For being so damn confident all the time, Ether, you are a horrible scumhunter. 0/4 indicates that we're not dealing with hands-off scum, that kind of record takes explicit direction.

I know. (Actually, I stopped being so damn confident after Numenorean. My behavior toward Sikario was closer to desperation/disgust with my previous failures. There was some messy psychology at work there, which I would not particularly

enjoy

detailing. Furthermore, it's 0/

5

, not 0/4. Xdaamno counts.)

It occurs to me that that was an attack. Um. At every point in this game, I have either been confident, or the town has

needed

someone such as myself in the confidence nichê, or both. This is what I do. My accuracy in this game indeed sucks. That's kind of it.

I'll admit to being the one who really lead the SSF bandwagon, and I'm not above scrutiny if anybody wants to scrutinize me, but I think Ether, Erg0, and Sarc should be looked at more carefully. All of them pretty much jumped without any reasoning beyond "let's have a bandwagon/lynch."

To what degree was the Flealynch was my doing?

(Unsure if this is actually a contradiction. I have my own unflattering answer to the specific question, but I'll hold off.)

I am curious about Ether's change of stance today versus yesterday. She's acting like she's all burnt out, or laying low, or something, whereas yesterday she kind of spearheaded the mislynch on Sikario (in my view and opinion). If she's trying to aviod responsibiliyt for that, she should know better than to think not talking will somehow make everyone else forget she's here.

I have not in fact been online today since daybreak, aside from some scattered time on Friday morning.

Sikario basically got lynched because Guardian requested to be replaced (though the self voting WAS a scummy move, that happened at the end of the day, and there wasn't a strong alternative wagon).

No, he

didn't.

I voted Sikario for Guardian's deadline behavior and ManaSpryte's bullshit, and Nabakov's associative tells locked me in. (Also, that messy psychology I don't want to talk about that I was talking about.)

I'm not liking all of the attention right off the bat on Nabakov today. If he looks like an easy lynch, at lynch or lose, then I'm pretty sure he's NOT the right lynch.

Uh. As of your post, Bookitty (confirmed town) and Elmo (in a low-profile post attacking two other people as well) took stances against Nabakov today. What attention?

Between Fonz's thing and the Day 1 deadline, I still don't think Ryan is scum.

I don't really get the Skruffslove; I think both Skruffs and Elmo are probably scum. I've wavered on the third. (By the way, if Zindie, Sarc and Skruffs all got to be scum together without me, I'll be sad.)

[Elmo]

If he looks like an easy lynch, at lynch or lose, then I'm pretty sure he's NOT the right lynch.

??? reasoning plz

"this stuff about ether" = "ether has been wrong therefore ether is scum", which is dumb

And do you usually just randomly call people town and admit you have no reason as to why?

why do you say i have no reason?

ether, why'm i scum?