In post 12464, Reasonably Rational wrote:Oh, right, and we also performed that fantastic feat of play prediction while simultaneously deliberately failing MULTIPLE kills, AND wasting what appeared to be a day kill at ANY point prior to the time when it would automatically win us the game, AND thus setting up a teammate to be killed, AND utilizing an event to give THE PERSON WHO LITERALLY WROTE THE GUIDE TO BEING A COP a fucking cop check.
There's been a grand total of one failed kill which you have going for you:
The failed kill on MagnaofIllusion. (And, by the way, that reason you give also applies to Shiro not being scum, and thus, is basically invalid.)
The failed kill on farside is because farside claimed her ascetic made her immune to everything except the scum's factional kill. She claimed this on D5, when TWIE claimed to have vigged her. She said, "that would have failed, because of my ability, unless it was the scum's factional kill".
After the failed kill on farside, she later realized, "Oh. Wait. It's not an ascetic. It's action-immunity. The scum's nightkill would have failed"--you could have killed her EXPECTING TO SUCCEED, because BY HER CLAIMED ROLE, a scum's nightkill WOULD HAVE SUCCEEDED.
The other kill which didn't happen, the night Almost50 tracked grapes and Fuzzy shot, I have explained already--you as scum
could not
nightkill any player.
There was a night scum were prevented from actioning altogether due to the gems.
Basically, this game has had ten nights, and of them, five have succeeded: N2, N3, N4, N9, and N10.
The grapes kill failing was something you could not have anticipated N1.
N6, the farside kill which you had every reason to believe would succeed failed.
N7, the scum were blocked from actioning.
N8 the scum couldn't nightkill without being conftown. (Mind you: this only applies to a grapes-Shiro or Reasonably Rational scumteam.)
The one and only night you have any credit to is N5.
Also, tempting as it would be to call your description of the Yume kill a scumslip (I'll give you the benefit of the doubt there), I'll instead settle for a generic comment:
Last I knew, we were unaware of how the Yume kill functioned. We know the results: Yume died. We know nothing of the particulars about when it could be used, on who, what the restrictions were, and similar. So saying that scum could use it at "a point where it could win scum the game" is not something we should be able to determine as being possible. What if it was specific to a certain time frame? What if it was specific to certain conditions that were never likely to come up in the game again? We know nothing about the requirements for the scum event. We know it happened, we know what it did, but we don't know what restrictions were in place for it.
And we've already discussed the Skybird point. I'm not in the mood to discuss it again because it's not going to be productive.
As for the cop: again. So I wrote the book on cop play. So fucking what?
The one and only useful result I got from my cop role in SMITE was an innocent on Magna if I recall correctly. (Or apparently Magua.) I had no plans whatsoever to use my role on a player who was actually scum that game. I had given no indication I had plans whatsoever to use my role on a player who was actually scum this game, aside from using it on you which you KNEW I wouldn't do. You KNEW I wouldn't use it on you. I had broadcasted intense desire to use it on MoI.
You also didn't know I would actually take the cop. I probably wasn't taking lightning rod, though I could have. I easily could have taken BP, because BP conftown is an awfully appealing idea. Taking the cop was a risky play. So you had no idea that I would take it, AND even if you did know, you had no way of knowing that of ALL the possible players I would target, I'd actually target scum. Every indication was that I'd waste it on town. I was scumreading Creature. I was scumreading kraska. I was scumreading SnarkySnowman.
All of those players, I was asked at the time why I didn't check! And for good reason. I could have used it on farside for that matter, derp as that play would be (you know, her being ascetic), but I am moronic enough where I would very easily be able to make that mistake, that oversight, and forget about that fact. I could have also investigated Almost50, or put aside grapes paranoia and investigated him. Or maybe Shiro, a lingering scumread of mine in the outliers. All of those players were possible check of mine. There was no reason to suspect I would check scum.
Giving me the Beachapalooza victory was a low-risk, high-reward play: you lost almost nothing from it (I would be given a tool I was most likely to waste and as conftown have more reason to be conftown), but would be given immense towncred for having tried to organize the ability's usage in the first place.
And then we rounded it all off by letting the conftown who has been scumreading us for MONTHS into the endgame with us. Yeah. Right.
Yes! Right! Because, again.
Is there an option other than that?
This much is true! And I AM sorry about that. But it's also something I don't really have a choice about. I am NOT meant to handle these situations. I am NOT meant to be the one to make these kinds of calls. I am meant to be dead early. If I don't die early, then in the midgame. Or lategame. If not, I'm supposed to be lynched, not that that was possible this game given I was conftown but oh well. I don't know how to handle lylo. I don't. Just don't.
I'm taking my best guess here. Doing what I know how to do. Compiling notes. Compiling stuff. Some probably inaccurate. (My notes have stuff in them which I 100% know to not be true, because I wrote them down, then fact-checked, then forgot to remove the obsolete fact. I make note of the notes which are and aren't accurate, of course, but I'm very chaotic, very messy, very disorganized in these notes and it's a bit of a mental nightmare to trudge through but I try anyway.)
I am trying to do the research. I am trying to talk to you. I am trying to engage with you. I specialize in talking! I specialize in the magic of words. I can find patterns, this much is true. Push come to shove, I can do analysis, by compiling what I have available as facts and running it through. But the simple fact is, my statistics, my analysis, is something I always know is flawed. I always know it's biased. I always know it will never be able to be accurate.
So I trust in the magic of talking. I trust in the power of the written word. And that's why I'm engaging you. That's why I want you to actually talk to me. Not make assumptions about me. Not say I'm doing something I'm not. Because...
Then you proceeded to do jack shit for the whole day phase.
This? This is something I haven't done.
I have tried talking to you, but your responses have been slow. Because of their slowness, because of the delays, the real-time interactions I specialize in aren't materializing as much as they need to for me to have what I need. So I've fallen back to secondary focuses. I did research, reading my own advice on how to play games. I tried to find tips on how to play in lylo. (Didn't actually find any.) I compiled lists of advice, lists of tips, lists of things which might be useful. I flailed about. I AM flailing about.
I don't know what I am doing.
I am the first to admit that!
I'm doing shit, yes, but it's...well, shit.
I have done stuff. I haven't been idle. It's just that the stuff I'm doing isn't necessarily what would optimally, what would ideally, be done, because yes I don't actually know what that is!
The simple fact of the matter is.
I want you to answer my points.
All of them, as much as you can.
I KNOW you won't be able to answer everything.
I KNOW what you give me might not be what I'm looking for.
I'm not expecting you to give me every answer.
But I'm asking you to give me good direction on where I am going wrong.
So I gave you my points. Why I am where I am.
When I came into this day phase, I had a clear plan of action.
Do research.
Ask about roles.
Ask about paraphases.
Ask you to case each other.
Ask you to summarize the game.
List my problems with your slot.
Respond to your cases on each other.
Ask about your roles, your paraphrases.
And read your reactions to all of this.
While also continuing, every step of the way, to do research.
Until the very last minute of the game.
I haven't accomplished that all. Less than half, honestly. But I am giving what I can, to give YOU what I can.
I could have kept those grievances to myself, and either not revealed them at all or revealed them upon hammering you. I could have done that.
The reason I didn't is because I WANTED YOU TO FUCKING RESPOND TO THEM.
And from your response to them, BETTER READ YOU.
Is that so hard to understand?
Post
Post #12477 (ISO) » Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:36 pm
Postby mastin2 »
In post 12472, Reasonably Rational wrote:We already dumped every spare moment of our daily lives into engaging with you, and all you did with that engagement was look for things to supplement your previous death tunnel walls.
So why the fuck am I not voting you right now?
I had this 'augmentation' to the "death tunnel walls", now, don't I?
The reason I'm not voting you is because it's NOT a fucking death tunnel wall.
I POSTED THAT SPECIFICALLY SO YOU WOULD ENGAGE IT.
I POSTED THAT SPECIFICALLY SO THAT YOU WOULD SHOW ME WHY I AM WRONG.
I POSTED THAT SPECIFICALLY TO GET YOU TO KNOW WHY I WAS SCUMREADING YOU, AND GIVE YOU AN EXACT WAY OF ADDRESSING IT.
I posted it because the engagement I had with you wasn't enough by itself. I posted it because I needed to up the engagement. I posted it because I needed you to address those things.
I posted it fully expecting you to, upon seeing it, go through why it's not right. Go through why it's inaccurate. Go through why it's not the case.
And then from having done that, I would finally be able to move on.
Again, I am not voting you. I haven't voted you. I've every chance in the world to vote you. But I'm not voting you BECAUSE I AM STILL WAITING.
AND WANTING.
TO BE PROVEN WRONG.
And that's something you could do. Just by fucking engaging me in the areas I want to be engaged.
Your role was one area I wanted to engage you in.
Your PTs, one of the main areas people were townreading you, was one of the main areas I wanted to engage you in.
My issues with you across the game, which I called in a tongue-in-cheek fashion my grievances with you, I wanted you to engage in.
Because I want to get that better read on you.
AND YOU AREN'T LETTING ME.
I have made simple requests.
I have asked for a lot of work to be done, yes. I've asked for a lot, I know that. Maybe too much, because I am unrealistic. Because I am overly ambitious. I set a goal beyond what I can actually achieve, what you could actually give me. But I am still doing everything I am. Specifically to get a better read on you.
I asked you questions. I explained to you my viewpoint. I showed you WHAT I HAVE BEEN THINKING. I showed you why I think that.
So why the fuck aren't you celebrating? You have the roadmap to my thought process. You have everything you need to answer me. You just go and answer my questions, my concerns. You address my points. You go to explain how my viewpoint isn't correct. You go provide an alternative viewpoint. You go to explain your view on matters. You explain why.
Why the fuck is that so hard for you to do?
I asked you to do something.
THAT IS MY IDEA OF ENGAGEMENT.
Not whatever bullshit idea you're suggesting.
I'm conftown. I want a dialog. I ask certain things to be done for that dialog. You do those things, you are entering a dialog.
Yet you are refusing to do those things. You are refusing to talk to me. You're talking AT me. You're dismissing me. You're ranting at me. You're being angry at me. You're not understanding me. And I don't get how a town-you couldn't be understanding me. A scum-you I can see frustrated at this. At how many points I raised and why they're there like that, after all I have done and you have done. But a town you I simply don't understand here acting this way.
Why isn't it the case that a town-you is just, calmly, seeing that I gave you my thoughts, and now responding to those thoughts?
Why isn't it the case that a town you is just responding to my points as I asked you to do?
Why isn't it the case that a town-you is actually working with me the way I ask of you?
Why is it that you are assuming I am a lost cause? When I haven't even fucking voted you yet!
It's not in my nature!
I literally can't. It goes against every bone in my body. It's not me. It's not who I am. Not even remotely.
I am subjective.
I am a walking talking opinionated person. I use instinct. I use gut. I use feelings! I use what "seems" right. I use what I remember. I use what I see. I use what I have felt. I use those things, not pure logic, not pure objectivity.
Expecting me to do any differently is expecting something that will never happen.
I'm not an objective person.
Never have been, never will be.
So what can I do? I do the best to work within my limitations, and within that limitation, there is an inherent desire to reach out. That is what my fucking grievances were. A reach-out! You are acting like it was me blindly calling you scum with no rhyme or reason...but it was me doing exactly the opposite in intent! I was aiming to get you to address me! I was aiming for your feedback.
Because what can you do? You can't make me objective. But you can address my concerns. You can address my points. You can try to make me see things differently. You can try to make me feel differently. You can try to make me alter my view, my perspective on the game, by addressing me, by giving feedback, by engaging me, by actually going through and helping me see why you're town.
So why the fuck aren't you?
You know we're town, but you're too afraid that you're wrong.
This is exactly the problem!
I am afraid I am wrong.
You KNOW I am afraid that I am wrong.
So why the fuck are you not trying to address my fears of being wrong?
Before I go though, could you do me a favor and consider that, if scum!me was able to accurately predict that set of actions...how does today play out with random, who you just said was listening to me, in your place?
Too many variables in play.
Does grapes still trigger their event?
Does grapes still take Almost50?
Does grapes still trigger their event immediately?
Does randomidget ask the same questions about the wincon that I did?
Do you bother to ask the same questions about the wincon you do?
Furthermore, does randomidget have me to listen to when I'm dead? (You seem to overlook this as an influencer. With randomidget dead, I don't have randomidget's feedback. With me dead, randomidget has me.)
How much does randomidget listen to me?
Would randomidget just no-lynch and bubble someone? (Not quite the same as lynching.)
These are all things you would need to ask and need to accurately predict. I'm the gal who thinks up an infinite number of scenarios. I think of every possible variable, every possible outcome. And even I have trouble crunching the above math. With randomidget alive, there's so many variables in play it's impossible to know what happens.
With me alive, there's only two:
Does grapes remove a player and if so, who...
...And what will I, in lylo, actually do?
That is a very comparatively simple equation to crunch.
Post
Post #12480 (ISO) » Tue Feb 07, 2017 11:05 pm
Postby Shiro »
I will attempt to address your point about rr Mastin starting
In post 12458, mastin2 wrote:The abilities you possess flavor-wise fit Army as being the last scum.
Really? I do not see this. They seem useless ro me for scum. Like, kill on hammer? That is only a tiny bit useful to lynch far and even then it would raise questions after the flip.
Also about the flavour point, mine are also lously based so I wouldnt put much thought into it. They fit but yea. Basically my interpretation is that since Vidalia has apparently let a lot of people stay at her place, I can keep the hoods open.
Also do they give them a strength boost? His rb is unreliable at best. It can be stacked on different people and mass permanent block but it will be highly suspicious that everyone that rr allies suddenly becomes unable to use powers.
I think the powerhouse scum was always meant to be dgb
His joining of the caky wagon was normal imo, he had express doubt beforehand and this is something that came up in day 2 as well. He had if I recall made a case before the wagon was even a thing but then it became a thing and he joined.
His masterminding things while I will give you that, it is also what I would expect from him. It doesn't mean nobody else could pull it off. Imo scum made some horrible moves like killing MoI for instance. (twice) That doesn't seem like a move rr would take specifically because he knew from Titus that MoI was bp
Some of his stances have been scummy but some of your examples are bad. Ex being skybird who many people assumed town (me included)
He has worked against you because you at some point held the game hostage so you can lynch him.
I will agree that his stances have been shifty.
I don't see it as looking for escape routes but more as looking for every option so you can anticipate. Something very rr like.
Has he been manipulative?
And we all make mechanical misplays. It happened in space dandy 2
I see your point about his role and questioning of far(this point kindish)
I mean the beachapalooza was pretty townie and to be fair, only didn't catch scum because a lot of people (me included) derped and didn't vote. It did clear a few people though which is just as good imo.
His fixation with far was scummy tho. She was bleeding town from day 2 onwards and cleared by his own event, fuzzy killing her overvshadow on his suggestion is probably his svummieest action.
To me:
shiro you are a charmer you were obvscum but for some reason people just wouldn't eliminate you ~Antihero
About me:
I stg this is how conversations with Lucifer go. ~Papa Zito
What we've done that is pro-town is so obvious it's staring you right in your gobsmacked face all game. We immediately networked and went to someone known for synergizing abilities to maximize our event. Even if Titus were scum, her advice to us had to be town or she'd out herself to us, so we got the use of her expertise on that. And while you say we blindly trusted her, that just tells me you didn't read what I had to say. I was skeeved out that she wasn't butting heads with us and just accepted us as town.
And ummm.. that plan fucking worked. It got YOU, a CONFTOWN, an investigate in a game which lacked any other HARD investigative abilities ... at all. Which you used and got a guilty with. Set aside the fact that you tried to argue against that guilty ... it still CAUGHT SCUM.
So explain to me why the FUCK scum!us even tells anyone about our event when you were outed as conftown by Yume. It makes sense that we did it the way we did because we're town and getting YOU the prize along with the extra information for town. That's fucking win-win for town and "why the fuck would you do that?" for scum.
Just Head to desk on the rest of your walls.
~D
P.S. - Push me a little further and I'm going to tell you why I'm so angry about the time wasting, and if I do, you will feel like a terrible person (which is why I'm restraining myself, because despite how angry I am, I still see a future where I stop being angry and I still have a friend, whereas if I unload the full brunt of this ... that future vanishes rationally).
Okay, Mastin. I'm not irritated anymore. I'm going to take the time to respond to your wall. I will address all your points to the best of my ability. This will hopefully take an hour or less. I would appreciate if you took the time to check in AS SOON as you're able to. I have time tonight, we can have a conversation.
The abilities you possess flavor-wise fit Army as being the last scum
.
The kill-upon hammer, and the forceful blocking of an ally, both seem like traits which fit the last scum for being Army. In contrast, the other two possible players for being Army (Almost50, Shiro) have abilities that I don't think make sense as coming from Army.
How would they, flavor-wise, make sense? How would yours NOT make sense? Because by the flavor as I understand it, your abilities are a perfect match for the flavor of Army; their abilities don't fit for Army at all.
The abilities you possess don't seem to match well with your given flavor of Sadie
.
Related to the above. While Beachapalooza is no doubt a Sadie event, we know that scum's town-events are tailored to their fakeclaim. I have no issue with the Beachapalooza events. But I maintain that your standard abilities seem to not match Sadie's flavor. I can
kind-of
see them. Sort-of. But it seems like a stretch. It feels like something Varsoon would give as a fakeclaim. It feels like something that is "close enough" to fit as a fakeclaim, but isn't as close as it'd be if it were an actual town role.
Now to be fair! I haven't looked up Shiro's flavor. I haven't looked up Almost50's flavor. I want to, and think I need to, to see how well THEIR abilities match their claims. If their abilities seem like a stretch, then this point would be invalid. But if their abilities seem to just naturally "fit", then this point becomes relevant: yours doesn't seem to fit well.
The flavor argument is flawed, for two reasons. First, the flavor of my abilities PERFECTLY match Sadie. Sadie as a character is rather low impact throughout, and the only truly significant instances of development with her character come from her relationship with Lar's, and her participation in the beach-a-palooza event. My abilities are entirely based upon the characters sometimes estranged relationship with Lars as expressed in those instances when she feels betrayed or used by him. She attempts to shut him out of her life or otherwise punish him as a result of these situations, which is essentially what my power's both correlate to. Second, regardless of whether or not the abilities that have been claimed by our scumspects match up with the flavor of Army, that doesn't account for the possible existence of abilities more obviously connected to the flavor of the character, nor does it account for the fact that the seventh scum could easily be yellow diamond, which means when we're looking for flavor correspondence there is essentially a nearly blank slate Varsoon had to work from for one of the slots.
All of that isn't even taking into account the fact that we have been specifically warned against "flavor gaming" the setup, which indicates to me that perfect correlations, or the absence of said correlation, shouldn't be considered as significant parts of any analysis of a slots likelihood of being scum.
The abilities you possess give the scum a much-needed strength boost
.
Almost50 has a tracker/watcher-type ability, when the scum have TWO other tracker/watcher abilities. This redundancy seems incredibly unlikely. (Additionally, if Almost50 were scum, that'd mean the town didn't have ANY tracker/watcher-type abilities.) Furthermore, his enhancement ability would give scum YET ANOTHER kill enhancement ability, something their scumteam has plenty of, between their scum roles and scum factional events which have been triggered throughout the game.
Shiro's ability is absolutely worthless to the scumteam outside of ONE specific scenario, that being, a permanent DGB neighborhood with scum. Aside from that one specific usage, aside from that one specific instance, Shiro's power grants the scum absolutely nothing.
In contrast, your claimed hammer ability (which, by the way, I'm not certain exists--why was SirCakez bubbled when you hammered D1? By my understanding of your ability, you should have caused him to instantly flip) would be able to shut down farside's lynch immunity and the gem's bubbling, among others. (Heck, it might've been able to even overcome increased lynch threshold!) It's an ability which can hurt town, but can't hurt scum because scum had no lynch immunity as you have claimed across the game they would possess.
Furthermore, and this is the ironic thing: you made a point in your ranting about how the scumteam lacks a way of shutting down the scum's power. This is true. The scum's flipped powers this game revolve almost entirely around TWO basic concepts: blending into the townbloc with town-sounding abilities...and enhanced kills to overcome protection on conftown. Yet there IS a slight deficit in scum power. The scumteam can blend into the town. The scumteam can get extra kills on town. But the scumteam, as it is, has no way aside from enhanced kills to actually
shut down
the town.
This deficit in scum power is not enough to justify an extra scumbag. It's only a slight deficit, not a severe one. Having an extra scumbag swings the game the other direction, giving them too much power, especially if said extra scumbag would be Almost50. But it IS enough where I thought the scum needed SOME form of power...and your claimed roleblock ability offers exactly that. Furthermore, if the scumteam's extra member is Shiro, it still doesn't solve the problem of scum being unable to shut down conftown.
First of all, my hammer ability only functions on season finales. That's why it didn't do anything on D1. Every opportunity to hammer on a season finale since then has ended up being a quick hammer performed by someone else, in spite of me specifically requesting to be allowed to hammer on that day. Yes, I expected all game for there to be SOMETHING the scum team had to justify my hammer power(especially when I learned that MoI also possessed that same ability). No, that ability has not materialized yet. I can't say whether this ability was put in by Varsoon as a red herring/limited value power(because it's main usage if no scum with any sort of lynch resistance exists is to force an immediate stress change rather than a delayed one), or if something actually exists that makes it a direct counter to a scum mechanic, and unless we no lynch and the scum team is grapes/A50, we will never reach a situation where it can be used again.
Now, regarding my ability to shut down the town's power(which is what I assume you meant when you said the scum's power): First, as I said, DGB did exist, and though I agree that her power was, by virtue of her inability to properly coordinate with her teammates, naturally limited, that doesn't make it magically go away. Second, the ability was quite limited, and rather lacking in the ability to actually shut down town power in a non-obvious way, and required prescience to have an active impact. I don't disagree that the power in scum hands could have been used to select a single target and prevent them from acting, but I don't see it being particularly likely to have the flexibility to be a power boost at the level you seem to think it would be.
I believe we severely disagree on the power levels. The towns most powerful roles were either both IC's and protected by layers of kill resistance options(the gems), or they simply werent the IC's. Scum almost had no choice but to shoot within the pool of Gems+IC's throughout the game, meaning that they were certain to waste at least a couple kills, and that the larger portion of towns power had a good chance of surviving to the late game. I think you simply don't weigh the functional IC slots as significantly in terms of town power as I do, which is consistent with your own modding position, but is something I feel is quite flawed. One simply has to look at Gistou to see what your perspective is on the matter. The URS were CLEARLY a huge benefit to the town, but you maintained that having such a large number of town slots coordinating together wasn't too bad, because of the distrust you sowed among them, and the fact that they could become anti-town. The Gems are almost exactly the same as the URS, except they WEREN'T given cause to distrust one another(though perhaps they had a similar anti-town clause in their win con/how their faction functions).
Basically, I don't believe that you accurately evaluated the strength of large groups of unlynchables in that game, and I don't believe you're evaluating it correctly in this game. The power gap between what we've seen from all factions and what I would expect is significant.
Oh, and to address the strength of what's been claimd: I agree that A50's ability enhancement may be a level of redundancy that goes too far, but considering the gulf in power from what we've seen, we can't clear him because of it. Shiro's power allowing the scum team to permanently communicate with DGB(which, btw, I DID miss) would, well, be an incredible boost, given the sheer strength of her role. I'm not sure why you view that as weak.
The timing/reason you joined the SirCakez wagon felt like bussing for towncred
.
You have consistently stated you have done this as your main selling point for why you are town. Yet your statement feels like you are overselling the importance of your position there. At the time you made your case against SirCakez, SirCakez was the main wagon, backed by many conftown/obvtown players such as myself. We were pushing HARD to get him lynched. Your vote hop onto the wagon there felt reminiscent of the way you bussed your scumbuddy on D1 in SC's game when you knew they were going down: it was a lost cause, on a player who was by and large now useless (thanks to DGB), and thus, running simple cost-benefit analysis would show that the benefit of bussing outweighed the cost of losing a scumbuddy.
Furthermore, you have painted a picture in which you say that your case important...and yet, behind closed doors, you were privately trying to dismantle your own case. With Titus, privately, you were attempting to discredit your own case. To make it weaker. To make it less valid. You were attempting to shift momentum AWAY from SirCakez in private, while publicly pushing him. This strongly looks like "having your cake and eating it two", trying to have it both ways: you publicly want the towncred, yet privately want SirCakez alive. Stuff like this is where you show that:
In post 12418, Reasonably Rational wrote:OWK: Vote SC.
Cerb:"I need to respond to his response. It, well, it actually was fairly reasonable. There are a couple things in there that pique my interest, but overall it's not bad. My skim doesn't say it's so not bad as to outweigh everything else, but it's worth looking into. "
Cerb:"So, just something to consider: If SC is scum, it seems basically impossible to get him lynched today. Between his teammates not voting him, and the joyride members not voting him, we'll basically need like 70%+ of the remaining town to vote for him. The existence of the joy ride even muddles how obvious it could be if his teammates refused to vote for him. "
Titus: We'll get the votes, don't worry.
OWK: Your vote will be the tipping point.
Cerb:"It is 100% up to mastin whether this particular issue becomes major or not. We'll see what she has to say whenever she shows up.
Honestly, I would *much* prefer the NC wagon over this one, considering that one just completely disappeared for no reason I can see."
Cerb:"Hate blank votes, coming from the slots they come from it makes me suspicious thst we've reached the tipping point and those two votes are scum rushing to make sure they're on the lynch,but probably at worst only one of xkfyu and creature is scum (assuming a scum flip from SC of course). If he's town, they could both easily be scum. That's pure theory talk though, doesn't take into account either slots play style. "
Titus: minimum of one is scum.
Cerb:"Actually, if he flips town, it's REALLY unlikely that either is scum imo. Considering the thread apathy, there would be no need for scum to jump on this wagon to push it over the edge."
Cerb:"I don't want him hammered until I can sort out wtf farside and A50 are doing. How did A50 miss what was apparently a line in his pt that told him he was BP/now figure out the source of it? Why would farside remove the bp and targeting restrictions? It doesn't make sense."
Cerb:"The real point of my search for clarity, OWK, is to determine if A50 KNEW that SC could grant BP to mastin(or at least, if he SHOULD have known). Determining whether or not I trust his claim to have "missed" it is another issue entirely.
Any thoughts on NC completely ignoring the post where I tell him that his opinion regarding this issue isn't trustworthy because he's most likely to be lynched if the SC lynch doesn't go through? I would have expected him to note that I'm just as likely to be lynched(since the main point of that argument is that the same people who are going after SC are suspicious of him as well, and there's a moderate overlap with those who are suspicious of me as well). "
Cerb: "NC has been an unsubstantiated scumread for awhile, largely influenced by both Drixx and yourself. He's on the list of things to look into if I ever get the time."
You also unvoted at a time where it was realistic that unvoting would have killed the momentum on his wagon altogether.
We rarely vote mastin. You know that. We also don't lynch people lightly, and we also FREELY kill momentum on wagons by unvoting when we have things we want to review before ending the day. These are facts. I'm well aware of what the late unvote on SC looks like, I was well aware of what it would like like if he flipped scum when he did it, and I didn't care. It's more important to me to resolve inconsistencies before ending the day.
Earlier you attempted to say that scum!me wouldn't bother removing the parts of my PT's which painted me in a bad light because I was so sure that everything looked incredibly town.
If I had been able to simply copy and paste the entire PT into the game, without having to read for context and to add some of those notes when things were unclear, you'd be right.
But I didn't. I had to read the entire PT. I read that part, I thought "well, that shit looks really bad, especially since I personally have gone on and on in the past about how D1 posting analyzed late game is one of the most useful tools for winning a game", AND I POSTED IT ANYWAYS. Because town doesn't lie. Perhaps I SHOULD have removed it, the same way sometime's the optimal play as town IS to lie to make sure the wagon doesn't shift onto you when you KNOW you have scum on the run, but I've always been quite opposed to town lies. They lose games, and I won't indulge in them.
It's possible that were I scum, I would choose to leave that bit in. I'm not going to deny that. I might view it as the bit of "bad" posting I could argue away, while allowing me to doctor the logs elsewhere. However, there is NO WAY I would leave that in thinking it's going to make ANYONE think I'm town.
With that said, you're again trying to argue opposing points. You're saying that I threw SC to the hounds, while working to keep him from being lynched, when the far SIMPLER explanation is that my read on him evolved over time due to his responses, and when doubts arose I kept them from the thread to keep from poisoning the wagon...the same way I chose to not vote NC when public opinon was against me, in spite of Titus' urging to do so.
Finally, and this is really important: My analysis up above, regarding the likelihood of SC actually getting lynched, is quite accurate. In a scum!SC universe without scum bussing, it was quite improbable that he would get lynched. Why would I choose to be the fulcrum of the lynch rather than rallying the troops to push elsewhere? Before you answer "town cred", let me remind you of a couple things: I'm well aware that mid wagon votes are viewed as prime bussing spots, and...the scum team had a sacrificial lamb to throw away, one who was already receiving suspicion. It would have been childs play to replace the post censuring SC with a post attacking the S_S slot and rallying for votes there, and instead of just getting towncred for a mid wagon vote, I could have been the driving force behind a D1 scum lynch. If you're going to have to give up a piece D1, why would you trade a queen for a pawn, when you could instead trade your pawn for a knight(figuratively speaking, in terms of relative town cred)?
a scum mastermind...but all the same, it's undeniable that the scumteam's actions this game have been, by and large, "smart". They have been on-point. Every time the town developed a strategy which was meant to catch/confirm scum and lock down a town win, they managed to prevent this from happening, every single time, every step of the way.
This doesn't match the level of quality I would expect from a Shiro scumteam. This does not match what I think grapes is capable of doing as scum. It could theoretically come from Almost50, but even then that feels like a stretch. But the scum slipping through the cracks makes perfect sense if you are scum, because exploiting gaps in town strategies and synergy is something you happen to specialize at doing.
I actually have no ability to respond to this. I'm simply not familiar enough with the planning abilities of the scum we've flipped, along with the remaining suspects. I"ve seen Shiro in hydra as scum, and I've seen A50 as scum in a game where I died N1. I can't speak on what is or isn't within their abilities. I do know what's within my abilities though. I've pointed out the incredibly stupid things I, as scum, would have had to do up to this point(and yes, we don't know WHAT the event that killed yume was..but if whatever restrictions it had in place were NOT time or stress based, it seems quite plausible that it could have been used late game rather than early. Even if it was a kill specifically targeting Steven, scum!me could have simply blocked Yume for the rest of the game with the plan of using it to kill her at the optimal time). You still haven't actually addressed these points to my satisfaction actually. Is your position that we masterfully dodged things while making some fundamental mistakes, or is it that the fundamental mistakes were in fact ploys on our part?
The stances you have held have consistently been the stances most convenient for the scumteam
.
You were a late pusher of SirCakez, not understanding the wagon initially, and then making a push when it was inevitable. When SirCakez claimed and some players unvoted, you too unvoted, making the SirCakez wagon no longer inevitable.
You similarly protected DGB until it was shown beyond any reasonable doubt she would be scum.
You reversed your stance on Skybird. Initially, you advised against mechanically clearing Skybird for knowing who Steven was on D1 (but formed a nulltown read on her slot anyway). Then, come D2, suddenly you have her as unlynchable town...not via play, but because...she knew who Steven was on D1. The very thing you advised against doing, and yet she went from nulltown to unlynchable town, violating your prior advice.
While you said you noted that "TWIE needs to do something to be town, else lynch him", when push actually came to shove, you showed incredible resistance to his lynch. You were advocating for farside's death that day, insisting that we follow Titus's will rather than mine. You eventually relented when I continued pressing the issue, but I had to fight tooth and nail to get that lynch through.
You protected Shadow_step when he was up for a lynch. The votes between Creature and Shadow_step were basically tied, and your vote helped swing momentum towards the Creature lynch. You voted for an incredibly-scummy, opportunistic-sounding reason as well, "welp, might as well do this", essentially, rather than a clear-cut case for why Creature was the superior lynch.
Furthermore, you also kept Fuzzy from vigging Shadow_step, which not only gave Shadow_step an extra day alive (forcing us to lynch him), but also prevented Fuzzy from being confirmed as town, because Fuzzy's shot going through that night would have confirmed Fuzzy as town (since scum couldn't act).
Then, you convinced Fuzzy to shoot farside. Farside was immune to the scum nightkill. She could NOT be killed by them. Both the conftown players were heavily defending her. And with her executioner-lite role, she would be incredibly hard to lynch. With ANY non-farside wagon gaining ANY momentum, she could use her role and force the lynch through on a non-her player, and that is something the scum couldn't have around. (She was also heavily-scumreading your slot.)
Additionally, Fuzzy shooting farside rather than in you/Almost50 prevented the resolution of the grapes/Almost50/RR/Fuzzy dilemma which CONTINUES EVEN NOW DAYS LATER because it wasn't resolved.
This, not even going into your consistent third party paranoia. Your paranoia towards the crystal gem faction. Your paranoia towards farside. How much paranoia am I to expect is actually reasonable or rational coming from you?
And then, on a last note, you resisted the plans which involved your death every step of the way. You insisted, "we need to live" almost every time. "Don't lynch us". Let a less-assured nightkill take you out instead. From a Fuzzy vig to a Shiro bubble, you've insisted on not being lynched, but rather, on the less-assured being taken out at night. This showed extreme survivalism, at a time there was no justification for doing so. (Fuck, we had an autowin plan! Why try to survive if the town can win 100% of the time?)
Almost50 advocated for his own death, his own lynch, for literally days. Shiro similarly showed signs of wanting to be dead. You always showed the opposite. You always insisted that you needed to live...or at the very least, "we shouldn't die
right now
, even if we should later". What time was "later" actually supposed to be? Because it sure hasn't materialized!
On that note, you kept randomidget from bubbling within the Almost50/RR duo off of "paranoia of an extra scum kill", which...again. Is paranoia.
Until today when you being town would necessitate the stance, so too was the idea of an extra scum paranoia. So again. At what stage am I to believe this amount of consistent paranoia is actually town? Because your constant, neverending paranoia EVERY step of the game has served to discredit town after town, cast shade on player after player, with most of them having flipped town. Why should I believe that constant paranoia casting comes from a playerslot whose fucking NAME is "Reasonably Rational"?
Because reasonable means "sound judgment; fair; sensible"; rational means "based on/in accordance with reason or logic".
Paranoia means "suspicion and mistrust of people/actions
without evidence of justification
".
It's pretty much a fucking antonym of reasonable and rational, and yet paranoia has been YOUR DEFINING TRAIT this game.
I'm going to address your last sentence first, and I'll give you the necessary context to explain this paranoia, because I know you missed these transformative experiences.
In Space Dandy 2, we had a guaranteed victory locked up. 100%. There was quite literally no way(with the scum mechanics as they ended up being revealed), for the scum team to live...had we had the foresight to be properly paranoid and force someone to utilize a single shot multi-vote we KNEW was in play, and which was of no benefit to the town in the current game state. In addition, in that game it was possible for the scum team to have won the game EXTREMELY early on with optimal play on their part. They didn't realize, or at least didn't take that particular line, but had they, our paranoia is the ONLY thing that would have prevented them from winning through optimal mechanical play on D3 or so.
In Bloodborne, which you seem to have some awareness of...the scum team was able to quickhammer their way through multiple day phases using a single slot, because of a mechanical quirk that slot had which I actually viewed as something which scum would NEVER be given in that game, thus contributing to my town read on the slot prior to me catching them(though not posting quickly enough to turn the catch into an actual lynch).
In Saga Frontier, I won with wgeurts because town was too short-sighted to consider any endgame scenario that didn't include gaining 50% of the remaining slots.
What do these games all have in common?
Town lost because they were not paranoid enough.
Consequently, I am FAR more paranoid now than I have been in the past. FAR less likely to dismiss something merely because it's improbable. I can weight it when evaluating probabilities, but I DO NOT dismiss things, and when those improbable things are supported by suspicious day play and ignoring them results in a loss, I latch onto them and refuse to let them go.
It DOES fly in the face of our name, on it's surface...except, well, what's more reasonable than survival? What's more rational than accepting the sub optimal play that shuts out the guaranteed death scenario?
Alright, now let's get back to everything you're saying.
SC wagon: I didn't understand why people were wagoning him until I actually ISO'd him. That's pretty straightforward. I already explained my unvote.
DGB: This is another instance of you attempting to have your cake and eat it too. I actually don't recall at all how the DGB wagon formed and was pushed. What I do remember is that you say the SC wagon was allowed to happen because he lost all value once DGB and KC had their interaction...yet after the SC flip was revealed, and I would have had every expectation that the entire town would turn on DGB...I instead chose to protect her? Another slot that was, if anything, even more inevitable a lyhnch than you believe SC was on D1? Why do I again take the suboptimal path?
Skybird: I actually have no recollection of my early game interactions with skybird. I don't recall ever saying that she was probtown or anything because of the alliance with Steven, but Drixx may have? This is something that I'd need to iso myself to resolve, and this is already taking longer than I planned to get through. You might be right? We may have discussed it and decided that, once we figure out mastin was confirmed town to Yume, that it was too obvious to have scum as the other individual Yume could chat with? I know we threw ideas back and forth, but I have no fucking clue if we ever actually arrived at a conclusion.
TWIE: *shrug* Titus wanted Farside dead before TWIE. I haven't got around to that PT yet(and I very much doubt I will before deadline), but that's basically it. We had plenty of cause to believe she was scum, and the greatest threat to town, and Titus had told us to go after her first. Not anything more to it than that, as unsatisfying as that answer is.
S_S: You can see in our PT with Titus that Creature was on our radar for essentially the ENTIRE game. Beyond that, this is again a spot where I'd need to check the context and my logs with Drixx to see what other thoughts we had regarding the situation.
Fuzzy vig: No. No. No. We explicitly told fuzzy that if he was going to shoot anyone he should shoot S_S because that shot would guard against the worst case scenario, which is also what shooting farside was intended to do. Yes, in hindsight we should have said "Either shoot S_S or don't shoot anyone", instead of asking him not to shoot and then suggesting that if he did shoot, it be at S_S. That was poor communication on our part once we had realized that a proper shot would prevent the threat we were concerned about. Call it irrational paranoia all you want, we saw a clear and present danger and did everything in our power to ensure a game loss wouldn't occur outright because people were being short-sighted.
I already addressed the farside shot at length in the past. In short, everything about her play was scum!me's wet dream, and she was the easiest possible 3p lylo mislynch, since all 3p lylo's required the removal of her defenders.
Regarding the survivalism: First of all, we have REPEATEDLY offered ourselves up to be killed. Yes, at every point we preferred someone else was killed, because it's nearly always better to have someone of uncertain alignment removed rather than yourself. You suggest that the night kill variants were "less certain", and you'd be right if we still had our ability...but we don't. A NK was functionally identical to a lynch as far as we were concerned, except lynching someone else meant the game could END outright rather than giving scum further opportunities to change the game state.
.
It's NEVER been your fault. It's always someone else having fucked up. To whit,
Beachapalooza not catching scum was Titus's fault for activating her IC. A miscommunication allowing scum to hide.
The gem paranoia was Yume's fault, for not communicating appropriately.
Protecting TheWayItEnds on Day 5, that was Titus's idea, plus "farside deserved it" because she was clearly scumming the thread up.
The Creature lynch, that was Creature's fault, combined with bad communication from farside meaning she was also partially to blame. (More on that below.)
Fuzzy holding fire and not conftowning himself was his decision, his choice, not yours.
Similarly, Fuzzy shooting farside was his decision, his choice, not yours. Also, because Almost50 was pressuring him to do so, you hold no responsibility for also having pressured him to do so.
Titus DID fuck up beach-a-palooza. Period. It was a colossal mistake on her part. She should have either insisted she receive it in our initial conversation(which we would have looked askance at, but it would have made sense when she popped her IC), or simply not popped her IC.
The gem paranoia should have been in the game from the start. I don't believe I ever blamed Yume for anything regarding them, other than her resistance to flipping KC. That's the only thing Yume ever did that gave us any reason to be suspicious of them. Oh, and the fact that she didn't claim to conftown. Touche, actually. That initial suspicion of the gems was spurred on by her actions, and the power imbalance from our speculation.
Umm. Don't put words in my mouth. I am pretty fucking sure I did not claim that "farside deserved it". And no, protecting TWIE was not Titus' idea. Ensuring Farside was lynched ASAP was.
I don't think we said we didn't deserve some degree of the blame for farside getting shot? The difference is just that we believe it was the optimal play, and you disagree.
Already addressed the fuzzy thing above. Same with the Creature lynch.
You have consistently treated me like crap the entire game
.
You have put me down every step of the way, even when I have been shown to be objectively right at almost every turn. You have ignored me when I've pointed stuff like this out before (the large majority of what I'm saying here is a rehash of old stuff I said before!), and focused on strawmanning my arguments, attacking the weakest points and acting as if that served to dismantle my entire argument.
You resisted simple requests of mine every step of the way. You have constantly stalled. The few times you address me, often from Cerb there were "misunderstandings" of what I asked, or from Drixx flat-out hostility towards my requests. You have pretended that you don't have an attitude problem, and insisted that *I* have one. You have insisted that *I* am the problem here. You have consistently pretended that nothing you've done is wrong, displaying a level of arrogance beyond what I've EVER seen from you in any capacity in a prior towngame. As Cerb, as Drixx, as RR.
On that note,
No, mastin, you have NOT been objectively right at almost every turn. You've been stubborn. You've refused to admit you were wrong.When we've responded to your posts, you've brushed our responses aside as inconsequential, and done EXACTLY what you accuse us of doing, strawmanned them.
The ONLY request you've made that was "simple" that I didn't deliver on in a timely fashion was you asking me to propose a game winning plan, and yes, that was a misunderstanding.
Wtih regards to the difference in our attitude towards you: You've NEVER gone so far out of your way to paint us as scum. From the moment you DELIBERATELY misinterpreted a post I made some days back asking you to explain how something would benefit me (or something along those lines, I honestly can't remember the post details), I've viewed you as hostile and unreasonable, and there's nothing you've done to make me feel any differently. You admit this is just a rehash of things you've said before, THINGS WHICH I HAVE INDEED ADDRESSED FOR THE MOST PART, BUT WTIH RESPONSES YOU SIMPLY CHOOSE TO BRUSH OFF.
Regarding us never admitting fault: Look at your voting history throughout the game. Look at the pushes you made. There were some good ones, yes, but there were also PLENTY of bad ones...and you haven't displayed contrition for those. The ONLY thing there could possibly be the tiniest reason for us to feel we've done wrong is push farside, and that was absolutely the optimal play to make.(This is, of course, barring me seeing some obvious reason why we shouldn't have voted for creature).
You should have known I believed you to be scum, yet acted otherwise
.
This is bad wording on my part, but during part of the game, you were actively working to discredit me. You were saying how much I wasn't actually scumreading you. How it was personal. How it was bias. How it wasn't sincere. How I was a liar. Yet you know me enough to know that was bullshit.
And similarly,
You have worked against me the majority of the lategame
.
In spite of me being conftown, rather than try and work within my requests, you discredited me in the eyes of others. You worked with randomidget, rather than me. You worked with MoI, rather than me. You worked with all the players you now think are scum, rather than working with me, the one player who was 100% conftown. I was scumreading you, yes. But you, as town, have worked with me in the past while I was scumreading you with zero problems at all. You worked around the scumread. You tried to find common ground. You tried to present stances which would get me to be more receptive. You were, in a sentence,
"Okay, I get that you're scumreading me. I can't stop that. What I can do is give you my thoughts, which are this. Please listen when I flip town". I saw basically none of that this game. Instead, I just saw, "mastina is wrong". Over and over again, addressed to everyone except for me.
Your inability to grasp these issues goes beyond reasonable doubt
.
You've never had this much problem communicating with me in past games as town. Not ONCE. Not once have you felt so off, so out of touch, with my issues towards you.
These are all the same point, essentially. Please refer to the previous section. Again, you very deliberately misinterpreted a question I asked you to continue your tirade against me. You became, as it were, persona non grata from that point forward as far as I was concerned. Perhaps it was shortsighted, but I didn't view you as having anything of value to offer the game because you refused to honestly evaluate the game state.
Your stances have consistently changed as most convenient/opportunistic
.
When grapes was seen as town by the rest of the town, you treated grapes as town. It was ONLY when grapes became a viable mislynch that you formed a scumread on them. And then, suddenly, when grapes became an inconvenient mislynch, you reversed your read back to town. When grapes's power potentially could break the game, you were buttering up to grapes, and when grapes was no longer an issue, this was dropped.
When I townread grapes, you formed a grapes townread yourself. When I voted grapes, it was back to a scumread. When Shiro was considered all-but-conftown, you treated Shiro as town. Yet when Shiro became the only possible realistic scum, suddenly Shiro shifted into a hard-scumread as if you were always scumreading Shiro from the start.
When Almost50 was a universal townread (and also, had you as his main townread), you had him as your strongest townread. And yet, when Almost50 turned on you and became a viable mislynch, he was suddenly a scumread of yours, a 180 reversal which went almost without any explanation whatsoever.
In this lylo phase, you have taken every step possible to prevent me from eliminating teams. You have overlooked mechanics until I have pointed it out. When you have stated things about the setup, you have prevented them from definitively ruling out teams. You have been keeping your options open, not locking yourself in. (This, in spite of my deliberate request for you to do exactly that!)
When I wasn't someone you needed the help of, you were consistently pushing me away. (See above.) And yet, now, when I'm the game-deciding vote, suddenly you're treating me a whole different way, as if all of that shitty stuff you said to me had never happened and we were always on the best of terms. Buddying up to me.
No. I treated grapes as unlynchable, because he was. There were always people more suspicous to push, especially with you and MoI opposing me on farside. Grapes simply wasn't important enough to put time or effort into evaluating.
I'm not sure what you're referring to in a lot of these stance shifts, actually. A shitload has happened. Again, I could go find the context and give you a proper response, but I'm up to over 2 hours responding to this right now, when I only budgeted an hour for it. With that said, if someone becomes the only realistic scum, then yes, I'm going to posit them as scum. I don't see what the problem is here, but again, I'm not sure exactly what situation you're referring to.
A50 did something extremely opportunistic, and in direct contradiction to both his stated stances throughout the game, and his own suggestion made shortly before. The fact that the slot he attacked was us is irrelevant. Anyone who behaved the way he did would immediately come under suspicion from us. You should know that.
And this last one, there are a couple problems with it. First of all, if we had the capacity to treat you this whole different way deliberately and manipulate you at any time, why didn't we do it throughout the game? Why make an enemy of you, of all people? Where's the sense in taking this line? Also, again, after spending the entire game antagonizing you...WHY ARE YOU HERE to be the critical vote? You can handwave away this point by saying there are too many variables, but NO, there are not.
Grapes event he used was a climax event. Thus, the game state as we entered today would not have been changed based on who was killed in the night.
If we could have anticipated both grapes and randoms actions, as you believe we would, then we would have anticipated a Shiro/us/Randomidget LYLO.
The bubble that random claimed to have is irrelevant, because either way random would be the deciding vote. The only question would be whether random would decide during the day with a cast vote, or at night with a bubble.
.
You've avoided closing doors. You've avoided confronting issues revolving around you. You've avoided the lynch like a plague. You've tried to find every possible way for scum to not be you. I don't see genuine scumhunting. I don't see genuine game solving. I see a player who is trying to keep options open, as to best have a chance of avoiding the noose.
This isn't something I can respond to. I've told you what I've done. You choose to interpret my actions otherwise. I responded above to the lynch avoidance accusation. Yes, I've avoided closing doors because YOU DON'T HAVE GOOD REASONS to close them. There's an entire game of evidence of scumhunting and gamesolving. Lead a horse to water and all that...this is all mushy feeling stuff, and I can't argue with that. You don't feel what i've done is genuine. I don't have anything to say to arguments of that sort.
You have been incredibly manipulative of the game's narrative
.
Every step of the way, you have said "we are town, we have helped the town, we did these things, and they were town". And yet, none of them are, as far as I can tell, actually true. (More on that below.)
Your private topics were incredibly manipulative
.
I haven't read the D3 one, but I have read the D1 and D2 ones.
Your blind trust in Titus felt beyond reason. The way you tried to go about gaining her trust also felt like it was something which was only of benefit to you as scum. Then when you actually did gain her trust, you went about trying to influence her. You encouraged her to lynch town players and discouraged her from voting SirCakez. (As seen above.)
Yet most of your thoughts in there were sheeping Titus--they were giving her exactly what she
wanted
to hear. You consistently were hedging bets on many key players/issues in the game. The way you were trying to make Titus ignore me, in private, when I was already conftown. And then there's how, on both D1 and D2, you point out justifications for scum acting ways now that certain behaviors have come true...before the scum acted that way, as if laying the groundwork to allow the scum to do exactly that, and leave you saying, "See, we warned you about this!".
It all was tailored to the individual. The way you treated Titus was tailored specifically to Titus. The way you treated Yume was tailored specifically to Yume. It looks like you were doing exactly what you needed to do in order to not only gain their trust, but also avoid the noose.
See my previous post about your feelings. I can't respond to these arguments, because there's no substance to them. I don't know what you're talking about when you say we were trying to make Titus ignore you, unless you're referencing Drixx's rant post that he wanted to make to you? If so, nothing in that was an attempt to make Titus ignore you, it was Drixx being pissed at you. But again, because this is all "interpretive" there's no real discussion to be had.
.
It was as if you knew the outcome of the night, that randomidget would die rather than me, that you'd be most likely facing the scenario we're currently in. How would you have predicted this as town?
On that note,
You know I am prone to doubt
.
Your posts today have appealed to my natural-born fears. I am innately afraid. I am innately paranoid. I constantly reasses, with a strong fear that I might be wrong. You have appealed strongly to this fear, exploiting it. You know my personality, and know that I would be reevaluating. You know that I would reexamine. You know how prone to doubt I am, how much when I live longer than I should I begin to question fundamental assumptions.
So you know better than anyone else how well you could argue against me and appeal to my nature as a player. Why should I believe you're not?
I already addressed this, but let me add something else: Why do you think I would PREFER to have to fight tooth and nail to convince you, to capitalize on your nature and manipulate you, when instead I could be spending the day talking to random and shiro? Why do you believe that I pay so much attention to your walls that I actually have this gut knowledge of your character that would cause me to choose to autolose if I were wrong? There's so many assumptions about the way I think and approach the game in almost every point you make, and I can't for the life of me figure out WHY you believe these things.
You have made mechanical misplays which violate your namesake
.
I'm missing plenty (like you having 'forgotten' about grapes's ability's claimed -4 stress if aimed at scum), but among them are two critical ones. One, I'll mention separately.
A second involves the Creature/farside day. Farside was rather unambiguous about her role: her ROLEBLOCK could not stop factional kills; she blocked Creature.
Her ASCETIC she clarified was full-on action immunity, and COULD block the scum's factional kill, an altered detail of her claim.
She was claiming her ACTION IMMUNITY was triggered.
Yet even after this clarification, you acted as if she had a guilty on Creature she herself said she did not have.
Drixx is a fucking idiot. That's all there is to this. I told him, REPEATEDLY that he was wrong about this, and that he had misunderstood. Over and over again, but he kept posting that bullshit. Look those posts over. Seriously, I wasn't the one suggesting we had a guilty on creature due to farsides roleblock claim(at least, not after she clarified how it functioned(I can't recall if I bought into the guilty before she clarified). I tried to drag Drixx in here to respond to this because it didn't make sense to me then, and it doesn't make sense to me now, and he told me he was too pissed at you to go back to reread and he didn't remember the situation, and when I refreshed his memory he just said he misinterpreted it and didn't have shit to say when I told him I kept tellin ghim he was wrong and he kept insisting.
There is a glaring hole in your play this game given your roleclaim
.
You claimed a permaroleblock, but something I noted was that you did NOT include any reference to whether that permaroleblock would affect the scum's factional abilities.
I gave you every chance to clarify this in-thread. I prodded you both on it, by asking for both heads to give the paraphrase. I also asked the question about the way your role functioned, which would have given you an additional chance to lay out the nature of the roleblock. (Admittedly I could have probably done this better.)
And yet, not ONCE did I see you claim the same clause that farside claimed, that her roleblock could not block the scum's factional abilities.
Am I to believe you left out that critical detail of your role PM? You, the mechanically-based player, neglecting to mention a vital part of your role?
Am I to believe you didn't have it spelled out in your role PM and never asked the mod for clarification on the issue?
Or am I to believe your roleblock actually COULD block the factional abilities of scum, when farside's roleblock could not?
No matter which option is the case, it's a difficult pill to swallow. No matter what, there is something absent which should not have any reason to be absent. Why did you not specify this detail? Did it never occur to you? It occurred to me, and I'm NOT the same level of mechanical genius that you two are, so why did you mention absolutely nothing about this, when FARSIDE the less-mechanically-inclined person had the mindfulness to do so?
Furthermore, I admit that this part I haven't gone to check on yet. I want to, but I haven't set aside the time to actually do it yet.
You have a permaroleblock ability.
When farside claimed her own roleblock ability, I recall nothing in the way of you trying to ask her a bunch of questions about it.
You, who had a roleblock ability yourselves.
Where was your attempt to either catch farside in a lie about it, or confirm she really had it?
Where was you pressuring her, for having a nearly-identical ability to your own? You having that ability, you could as Varsoon about it. You could get him to answer questions about yours, and lay traps for farside. Test her knowledge. Force her to ask questions to Varsoon about her role, and if she failed to deliver, you would've had proof that she was scum; if she did deliver, you would have something loosely indicating she was town.
Where was this process? This is something that should have been pathetically simple for you, the mechanical-based players, to have figured out: "farside's claiming a roleblock, we have a roleblock, let's pressure her about it". Yet I don't recall you so much as ONCE bringing this up at any point of the game.
I admit I haven't verified this point. But this is a really fucking huge thing. How could you, the mechanics-based player, make such a mistake as to pass the golden opportunity up?
This also exemplifies my problem with your attitude towards the Creature lynch. If you knew your roleblock couldn't block the factional kill, why would you think farside's could? Why try to lynch Creature that day, rather than try to lynch farside who you'd have good reason to think was a liar?
Yes, you lost your permaroleblock when Titus stole it...but you still STARTED with the ability, and had access to it for, what, three days? You could have asked about it if you had any interest in using it. And furthermore, even after having lost it, because you STARTED with the ability, V would be more than happy to answer questions about your original role PM even if the section questioned about would no longer be valid.
Addressed previously(Sorry, it's like 10:36 now and I needed to be done with this an hour ago). We NEVER viewed Farsides role as so similar that we should be suspicious, and if we had said suspicion wouldn't have applied because of our knowledge of the mod meta, and again because of said mod meta, there was no need to clarify that our ability could stop factionals.
that you have done things which were town. But what have you done that was ACTUALLY town? Aside from the SirCakez lynch, which I put my issues with above?
You cleared Skybird off of mechanics.
You kept suspicion away from DGB for as long as humanly possible.
Your main claim to being town and having towncred is the Beachapalooza event...yet that event didn't catch scum in the voting. The only way that event caught scum is via me using a gunsmith shot on TWIE, something you, personally, had no control of and no way of knowing I would do. You had no way of knowing which power I would choose. You had no way of knowing which target I would choose. You had no way of knowing I'd do that, so you cannot claim credit for it, especially when TWIE wasn't my main choice. (You were my first, you told me via Yume that'd be a waste. MoI was my second, Yume told me not to. This was all very, very public, but my investigation was not.)
The point I'm making here is that the Beachapalooza event didn't actually catch scum by nature of the votes themselves.
What have you done since then? You made a plan with Titus which would have allegedly confirmed you--except Titus died, so there wasn't anything actually town there.
You said you had an early point about TWIE needing to do anything else he'd be scum...yet on D5, you insisted on lynching farside before TWIE. A move which would have favored scum.
You lynched Creature instead of Shadow_step when both were on the line--how was that town?
You encouraged Fuzzy to hold fire when Fuzzy successfully shooting would have proven Fuzzy was town--how was that town?
You encouraged Fuzzy to shoot farside, when we knew farside was immune to the conventional scum nightkill--how was that town?
You can claim these were "the right idea, IN THEORY". You can claim that these were right ideas on principle. You can claim that these moves were technically-correct plays, plays which made sense to do at the time even though in hindsight they were mistakes.
Yet the simple fact is, in hindsight, NONE of them were actually town moves, because NONE of them brought the town closer to victory--quite the opposite, they brought the scum closer to a win each and every time.
So again, what have you done which was actually town? Not "town in theory". Not, "town if used optimally". Not, "town in ideal circumstances". Not, "town with conditions that didn't materialize".
What have you done which was town THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED?
A tl;dr of the above could be this one sentence:
The whole game, you have acted in a way convenient to scum, and yet when called out on it, denied having done so.
This last bit is, well, such bullshit. It's a request for something that can't be provided, because you've already dismissed out of hand every action we've taken that's been pro-town, because of your results bias.
The KEY to playing ANYTHING is knowing the optimal response to any given situation, and making that response. We have done so. The results are, to be perfectly honest, irrelevant. In addition, using those same standards you've demanding of us, I don't believe that any slot, with the exception of Xkfyu, could answer your question in a satisfactory fashion. People play in the way they believe to be optimal. Sometimes, those optimal lines end poorly. Sometimes, suboptimal lines are taken and end well. You try to dismiss things that are "in theory" correct, but THAT'S all that matters, because that's the only thing you can look at objectively. If you look at things based ONLY on results, then your analysis is fundamentally flawed, because it is naturally biased by hindsight.
Sorry this took so long, got close to the end and realized I needed food. Let me know if there's anything more we can have an actual conversation about, I'll try to respond as best I can throughout tomorrow.
Okay.
Before I begin to read, yet alone respond, I think I should share this important bit.
I don't have it in me to vote Shiro.
For better or for worse, I apologize if that's the correct answer, I just don't have it in me. I know that I asked you to treat today like a traditional lylo, in which a Shiro lynch was the alternative to lynching you, RR. But before you go and accuse me of wasting your time (even though I have to apologize because while not my intention that was in fact wasting your time), this isn't something which was always there and which I'm just now telling you.
Rather, it's a feeling that has formed somewhat out of the blue.
Last night (as in, Tuesday, not game night), I thought this would be an issue of Shiro + grapes vs. Reasonably Rational.
Yet now.
Now, I don't think I have it in me. If YOU feel that's the correct option now, then you should probably shift your attention to telling me why to lynch Shiro, because you'd need to do exactly that if you wanted me to lynch Shiro. Yet last I checked, last I read, you actually sounded like overall you were leaning against that option ANYWAY (do feel free to correct me there if I am wrong), that you were leaning towards it being Almost50-grapes anyway. So if you strongly (or even decently!) feel Almost50-grapes is the scumteam, what I'm saying here is basically of no concern to you, because it becomes a binary choice:
Vote RR before deadline...
...Or don't vote RR, and let deadline expire and by default, no-lynch.
In short, I'm removing lynching Shiro (and by implication, Shiro-grapes) from the table.
And I'm placing the Almost50-grapes scumteam I had previously eliminated
back
on the table.
I don't really need to justify to this to you especially if you happen to AGREE with me on this, but.
I feel the need to explain all my actions quite frankly at this stage, so I shall at least try.
Basically. I just. I just don't see Shiro as scum anymore. Not at all. I have notes which lay out reasons Shiro
could
be scum. I lay out possibilities. But when push comes to shove, I asked myself, "Do I actually believe this point?" And the answer is no. No, I don't. Every reason I can think of for Shiro to be scum, doesn't feel right. It doesn't feel like it fits. It feels like, "okay so sure that's POSSIBLE", but it also feels like, "but fuck no that's not ACTUALLY the case". I don't think this will change, no matter how much research I do. No matter how many points I bring up. No matter how many things I find. No matter what I look into.
I simply don't think I will actually, sincerely, feel Shiro could be scum. And more than that. I feel Shiro is town. Every time Shiro has been in the thread, Shiro has given content which has felt like it was town. Especially today, but on prior days as well. When I gave Shiro a challenge, Shiro answered it. When I wanted Shiro's explanations, the way Shiro explained felt incredibly town. While Shiro hasn't given me all of what I asked for, Shiro looks to be trying to figure it out. When asked for comparing Shiro-RR, Shiro's answer also looked town. And then, most recently, Shiro gave 12480. I was not expecting Shiro to give me that. That was something which just popped up. And it was just...
...Town.
Every bit, every core, every facet of it, felt it was town.
For that reason, for better or for worse, even if it loses us the game, I'm not voting Shiro. I'm making that call. I'll take the blame, the loss, the responsibility, the hatred, for that if it is a misjudgment on my part. But at this point, I have reached the stance that I am okay losing to Shiro because I simply don't see Shiro as actually scum, no matter how hard I try.
However.
I am no longer currently okay losing to an Almost50-grapes scumteam. (If I was still okay with losing to Almost50-grapes, and you add in being okay losing to Shiro, then I'd be voting you.) They've shifted from out-of-focus to main-focus. Here and now, a lot of my effort is going to be spent going over that combo, and comparing it to you solo. I haven't read what you've posted yet. But I'll tell you what I need.
What I need is to feel wrong.
I don't need to feel bad--those two terms are NOT synonymous.
You have no fucking clue how bad I feel already. I don't need your posts to be helping me feel worse because there's nothing you could say which could possibly be a worse insult than the ones I am throwing at myself: failure. Miserable human being. Pathetic. Moron. Idiot. Naive. Foolish. Despicable. I feel that way about myself already, so you trying to amplify those feelings, not productive.
But feeling WRONG?
Feeling WRONG,
that
is productive. Because if I feel wrong, if I feel like my scumread on you is wrong.
That is how you're going to get me to not vote you. (Which, as laid out above, is me voting for a no-lynch by default.)
If I feel it is WRONG to scumread you, then I won't vote you.
That's what the game boils down to right now: does voting you feel right, or does voting you feel wrong?
That's the best, most honest feedback I can give you right now on where I am at the moment. If you want to live, I need to feel wrong (not bad). If I feel wrong, I no-lynch. (Because I'm not lynching Shiro.) If after all is said and done I don't feel wrong, then all I can do is follow what feels right. (Which would be voting you.) I do apologize if this is not something you want to engage me in terms of. I also apologize if a lot of what I'm saying here is redundant with what you have said in the stuff I'm about to read but currently haven't. (Basically, if you already focused on making me feel wrong rather than feeling bad, than a huge swath of this post becomes redundant because you were already doing that.)
But that's the simplest way I can think of to put the dilemma.
Not, "is RR scum or not?".
Not, "am I okay losing to X or not?".
Not, "is this worth the risk, or is it not?".
Just, "Am I wrong, or am I not?"
If I am wrong, no lynch. If I am not, RR lynch. That's the best way I can think of to...well, think of the situation.
(^Point of clarity in case it's an issue: pointing out my past failures isn't "feel I'm wrong" type. It's "feel I'm bad" type. Any pointing out of my failures would make me feel shitty if I wasn't already feeling like the scum of the earth already. But pointing out past failures of mine is not going to make me feel like I am wrong. Just need that out there in case it's relevant.)
No, it didn't.
The plan, as stated, was to catch scum voting, similar to the Suikoden mechanic.
The power was never part of your plan. You wanted it in the hands of a conftown player, yes, but the main purpose of your event was, by your own words, to try and catch scum rigging the event.
Yet we KNOW that they blended in.
For you to be town, grapes blended into the Titus wagon.
Regardless of whether you are town or not, FOUR SCUM voted me. (Skybird + buddy; Almost50 + buddy OR RR + buddy.)
In that regard, the event was a complete failure. The thing it was designed to do, catch scum rigging, it didn't do at all. Because again. Either four scum voted conftown (me), or SIX scum voted conftown (me + two on Titus, via grapes+scumbuddy). The very thing it was designed for, didn't happen. It didn't materialize at all.
The plan in that regard was therefore an utter failure, because scum were able to blend in.
This was your intended plan; you talked to Titus about it.
This was Titus's intended plan; she knew the Suikoden mechanic.
This was my intended plan; I knew of the Suikoden mechanic as well thanks to spectating that game. Fuck, I developed the claim order list.
We all knew the plan. Yet either FOUR, or SIX of the scum (the entire scumteam in the case of six; the entire scumteam save one in the case of four) voted in ways where they COULD NOT BE CAUGHT using the plan. The scumteam, regardless of its composition, blended in: they predicted your plan before it was executed. Because we know the voting totals are accurate, and we know how scum voted as a result. Scum did not vote for scum, as intended. Scum voted for the conftown, in even amounts.
Even if Titus wasn't conftown.
Even if farside/NotChara weren't the third-highest voters.
Even if both of those factors were true.
Scum still voted for me with FOUR of their members.
Scum still WANTED me to win the event. And to not be caught having made me the winner.
It got YOU, a CONFTOWN, an investigate in a game which lacked any other HARD investigative abilities ... at all.
NotChara had one which was identical in nature to your event gift (detecting kills), but other than that, this point also applies to Almost50. His power to track refilled on season finales. One shot prior to D4, one shot prior to D8, and a third shot prior to D12. D12 is something we'd be unlikely to reach, but if we did, we'd get a fourth shot. That is a hard investigative, which has utility over the whole game (albeit limited). Beachapalooza's utility was one-time, albeit for a stronger ability.
it still CAUGHT SCUM.
But not as a result of anything you did.
I
got the guilty.
*I* chose the cop power.
And then *I* chose my target.
So *I* was the one who was responsible for getting that result.
It was your event, that's true enough. But once you handed me the victory, you stopped being the one who could claim credit for the usage of it, because that was MY doing. My choice. Not yours. Something you had no control over. Something your
only
influence over was getting me to not target you. That's literally the only credit you can claim for the cop investigation: by claiming miller-variant to it, you made me not target you. That's it.
When I asked what you have done to produce pro-town results.
I want your contribution to having produced pro-town results.
Not, "I helped you make your contribution!".
It being your event doesn't matter.
Because with me having the power, it wasn't you who was responsible for the guilty. It was me.
What you
can
do is explain to me how I'm wrong about the Beachapalooza event having not been protown in of itself, but I sure as fuck don't see how I could be wrong there given it is 100% objective FACT that scum blended in by voting conftown, either four of them or six of them.
Basically, you can't claim credit for something you didn't do.
You handed me the investigation, yes--but that's it. And I put no value in you doing that.
Because that wasn't your given primary goal. It was a secondary goal, sure! Give a conftown player the reward. That was an established objective you achieved by having me win it. (With the aid of four scum, mind you.)
It wasn't your stated primary objective. It wasn't what you were aiming for first and foremost, above all else. You were aiming to catch scum voting...and scum were not caught in the voting.
As a result, Beachapalooza was a failure. Giving me the power meant nothing--you'd do that as either alignment, especially since you had no way of knowing I'd go cop, and no way of knowing I'd target scum. (Well, if you're scum you'd know I wanted to target you, but you claimed I'd get a guilty on you so you knew I wasn't going to target YOU, and had no way of so much as SUSPECTING I'd target scum--literally every scumread I held at the time was town. I scumread randomidget/MoI/SnarkySnowman/kraskaesque, among others. Me investigating any of them would do you no harm.)
It makes sense that we did it the way we did because we're town and getting YOU the prize along with the extra information for town. That's fucking win-win for town and "why the fuck would you do that?" for scum.
It's not "why the fuck would you do that?" for scum.
It's "why the fuck would you NOT do that?" for scum.
I don't see any reason whatsoever you wouldn't do it as scum.
Beachapalooza's primary purpose was to catch scum in the votes: it failed to do so.
Beachapalooza's secondary purpose was to give a role to conftown: it succeeded in doing so.
But let me ask you this: why the fuck is that something beyond your ability as scum,
especially given you were being lynched
, and the main reason you WEREN'T lynched is because of your Beachapalooza ability?
You literally told everyone, "Please don't lynch us until we've used our Beachapalooza ability!"
That gives you strong incentive, as scum, to make the event give you town credit.
That gives you strong incentive, as scum, to make the event give you a way to continue to be townread even after it concludes, rather than being run up immediately after it has.
Am I wrong?
Because quite literally, you were up for the lynch both D1 and D2.
You panicked, claimed your ability, and tried to get it to save you, pleading that you had a strong pro-town ability.
You used it.
And then people townread you for it.
What in that process doesn't make sense for you to do as scum?
Post
Post #12488 (ISO) » Wed Feb 08, 2017 10:11 pm
Postby mastin2 »
In post 12482, Reasonably Rational wrote: "I would appreciate if you took the time to check in AS SOON as you're able to. I have time tonight, we can have a conversation.
I'll be here for as long as my power is.
And I'll make you a promise.
Deadline's a little over a day away.
I'll make my call in 24 hours.
Doing as much work as I can in that timeframe.
Last edited by Varsoon on Thu Feb 09, 2017 1:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
Post
Post #12489 (ISO) » Wed Feb 08, 2017 10:21 pm
Postby mastin2 »
I don't think I'm going to actually be able to respond to much of what Cerb's saying in 12483.
I don't have the words for a lot of it.
Before you go saying that's a betrayal of trust, Cerb: I'd have something to say if I
disagreed
.
Me NOT having words to say for a lot of it means
you gave me what I was looking for
.
It means you are making me think.
And it means you are making me feel wrong.
And it means that you are forcing me to reevaluate, to think over some prior assumptions on my part because yes you are in fact: getting through to me.
So I'm going to say this in advance: anything in 12483 I DON'T respond to, is something where I am thinking, "That's...actually a good point."
So, please don't feel insulted if I'm only responding to a small portion of the post, and please don't feel like it's selectively picking up on the weakest points while ignoring the rest. This is me telling you that it's just going to be me engaging you on the things which I feel there needs to be more engagement on.
Post
Post #12490 (ISO) » Thu Feb 09, 2017 12:26 am
Postby mastin2 »
In post 12483, Reasonably Rational wrote:In a scum!SC universe without scum bussing, it was quite improbable that he would get lynched.
And yet, for me to believe you are town, it requires exactly that:
I am believing Shiro is town.
grapes did not START the game as scum. (This I am 100% firm on, as an absolute fact.)
As a result, if you were town, SirCakez would be an all-town lynch. (Well, effectively so.)
Why would I choose to be the fulcrum of the lynch rather than rallying the troops to push elsewhere?
There were signs of exactly that, were there not? And when those attempts didn't materialize, the lynch went through anyway.
The SirCakez wagon had no scum counterwagon.
So it's not a question of "why would a scum player not try to rally the troops elsewhere?".
Because we know they didn't. Regardless of who is scum, we know they failed to do this, because there was no scum counterwagon. None really. The closest was farside (Almost50) at 3. Shiro (Skybird) had 2. McMenno had 2 but none were scum. So we know for a fact...scum were not wagoning town. Asking, "Why didn't we?" is pointless as a result, because we know scum didn't.
I've pointed out the incredibly stupid things I, as scum, would have had to do up to this point. You still haven't actually addressed these points to my satisfaction actually. Is your position that we masterfully dodged things while making some fundamental mistakes, or is it that the fundamental mistakes were in fact ploys on our part?
Option C: the scumteam this game, while playing
well
, has not played perfectly. This is undeniably a fact, yes?
This applies regardless of who is scum: the scumteam has managed to evade every town trap, every town maneuver. This is the type of play I describe as the "scum mastermind".
But the thing about even the best scum players is that they are not infallible. They are human. They can make mistakes, make a miscall, make a misjudgment: something which
seemed
like a good idea at the time, but which in hindsight proved to be an error.
Would you say it is beyond your capability to make a mistake in a scum ability when scum?
Of course it's not. You make mistakes
less
than a normal scum player would. You have a tighter grasp of mechanics than most players, so you usually understand the consequences of your actions. Yet you can fuck up.
And when you fuck up as scum, what do you do as scum?
Be honest.
You already know the answer: You self-burden-of-proficiency with damage control and say, "If we were scum, we would be competent enough
not
to do that".
I am FAR more paranoid now than I have been in the past.
Is it fair to say I am paranoid of your alleged paranoia?
I actually don't recall at all how the DGB wagon formed and was pushed. What I do remember is that you say the SC wagon was allowed to happen because he lost all value once DGB and KC had their interaction...yet after the SC flip was revealed, and I would have had every expectation that the entire town would turn on DGB...I instead chose to protect her?
The thing is, you were distancing the slot while still protecting it: you were pointing out things which were bad, but making excuses to not actually lynch her.
This continued even past the Klingoncelt lynch.
You held a stance that Klingoncelt's flip would, if containing certain details, be bad for DGB...and it wasn't until Klingoncelt was in fact flipped that you did exactly that and condemn DGB. Prior to that point, you were still taking that same distancing-while-defending approach.
Skybird: I actually have no recollection of my early game interactions with skybird. I don't recall ever saying that she was probtown or anything because of the alliance with Steven, but Drixx may have?
Umm... we were Steven in the first SU game. Our big thing was that we could IC on day 5. On day 3 we had two people and ourselves thrown into a permanent alliance. (Mastin and Xtoxm). We then lynched a scum that day who had strongman on season finale and so we actually ended up using the same logic. We concluded that Varsoon would not have given scum knowledge of who we were so they could just turn around and murder us the next night without us having any reliable way to avoid it (there were two ways for us to avoid it: luck into lynching the strongman before first finale (this is what happened) or another town slot had to be both alive, allied with us, have a 1-shot per game ability available and USE it to commute us and them out of the game on the finale night). We were so certain that it made no sense to make an IC and then have it get killed 99% of the time before it could ever become IC that we concluded scum would not have been given access to our identity.
Now ... Varsoon does like to change things up as a mod so I wouldn't go so far as to say Skybird automatically must be scum ... but I sure as hell am not going to assume town after what happened in the original game.
Long story short: farside was being widely scum read but we put together a case for why they were almost certainly town. We were running a reaction test on them before we unvoted and moved on to plan we had stated. The plan we had stated called for us lynching Grapes (claimed miller) that day, someone else the next day and the final scum the day after.
Grapes, ignoring our really strong case for why farside must be town decided to hammer farside and end the day rather than take his lynch, which he knew he had to eat because of being and claiming miller. His action took us from guaranteed win to a last day where we had someone who had been kind of super trollish (think firebringer, only WAY worse) plus our two day 3 alliance people still alive.
Since we assumed scum would not have been gifted knowledge of who we were, that really strongly influenced our thinking and we ended up lynching the super-troll player, and Xtoxm was the last scum.
So yeah ... ummm. Please don't make unfounded assumptions. Please.
^Drixx post. "Skybird could be scum for the ability, or not, let's not assume anything off of role".
I have absolutely no feelings about Skybird at all, which is basically how I always feel about her posting. I'll look at her ISO after I finish SC's, but she's generally fairly low impact on the game so I rarely actually ISO dive her.
^Cerb head. "I have no opinion of her".
In post 2629, Reasonably Rational wrote:Pedit: we used that same flawed logic to lose SU 1(plus some other stuff, but that was what ultimately drove the lylo mislynch), except we had EVEN MORE REASON to think scum wouldn't possibly be given confirmation of Stevens identify than you do, and we were STILL wrong.
Don't be us. Don't close your mind to the possibility. Evaluate Skybirds play on its own merit.
^Cerb post, saying: "Evaluate Skybird on her own merit".
First three posts are fluff, then an ally request.
300: willing to ally with Yume. 318: Questions FB about having mastin who he townreads in his lynch pool. Tells him to leave Yume alone. 337: At Farsides suggestion, invites Foxbird to ally with her, responds to Drixx's confusion and shows willingness to ally with RR as well. 353: Asks CoolDog if he's read the thread and informs him of the ally state for mastin and RR. 445: FB responds to her 318 in 323, saying mastin is in his lynch pool for annoyance, and Skybird asks him what's annoying him. 578: Farside feels town to her. 673: RR null, KC and mastin town, CoolDog scum. What reasons did you have for the KC and CoolDog reads at this time? 1012: Calls Xkfyu's 716 "sucking up to OWK". Because they voted Creature? Because of the exact verbiage they used? Why exactly is this sucking up? Asks for an explanation of OWK's town read on CoolDog. Consistent with their scumread on him, but that read is still unexplained. 1018: MIsreads OWK's 1014 explaining their CoolDog read as feeling bad in their guts, without any evidence in thread(which is a weird conclusion to arrive at, sounds like the sort of thing that make someone null, not "might be town") as a read on FB, and asks if he's ballsy enough to be scum and call himself such all game. 1044: 1019 OWK clarifies that the answer previously was about CoolDog, Skybird agrees regarding the CoolDog read and reasoning, and calls it strange that CD asked mastin to ally after she said she was never going to ally with anyone. 1049: Suggests snarky may be "trying too hard" as a devil's advocate, and disagrees that snarky is "so town". How town is Snarky then Skybird? 1502: Votes NC. Why did you do this? Whose points against him swayed you? 1585: Asks SC about his town read on NC. Consistent. 1825: Confirms that the blank vote on Snarky did not come from her slot. 1855: Gut town read on RR, willing to lynch DGB(because of the empty iso, or because of the bad reason/lack of reason for the vote on RR?). Questions SC's justification for the townread on NC. Good questions and points. 1925: Cakez is a scum lean. 2192: Willing to ally farside22, questions her on her SC townread. 2223: Agrees with the points everyone else has been making about SC, reiterates the question from 2192. 2249: Votes Shiro with Farside, with no reason given. What were your thoughts here? What are they now? 2416: Asks shiro for his reads. 2434: In response to Shiro's ansewr to 2416 "going back and forth on KC too, asks why he scumreads Mcmenno, doesn't have any thing to say about any of his other reads. Why didn't you ask him why he scumread A50?
Nothing of note past this point.
Super minor town read overall. I see attempts to put things together when she's here, even if she's not doing it too much.
^Cerb post. Holds Skybird as a minor townread, basically nulltown. And here's the funny thing, Cerb.
The post in question WASN'T a Drixx post.
Your next mention of Skybird after having her as a minor townread?
In post 6053, Reasonably Rational wrote:Town/unlikely to be aligned with scum:(important distinction)
Titus
Klingoncelt
mastin2
Yume
Farside22
Xkfyu(this is because of a realization I had about the potential meaning of some things he's said which I won't be revealing)
Firebringer <<bubbled by gems in a way that could have resulted in his death apparently, but did not. This implies certain things to me.
Skybird <<< PT with steven
killthestory <<<fake IC claim
So yeah. The people above are unlynchable yo.
...An unexplained bump up to absolutely unlynchable. The given reason? "She has a PT with Steven". The very fucking thing the above posts I quoted from BOTH HEADS warned against doing multiple times. Why did Skybird, overnight, jump from "minor town, off of play" to "unlynchable town, from claim", when your earlier stance was to NOT clear her off of that?
Fuzzy vig: No. No. No. We explicitly told fuzzy that if he was going to shoot anyone he should shoot S_S because that shot would guard against the worst case scenario, which is also what shooting farside was intended to do. Yes, in hindsight we should have said "Either shoot S_S or don't shoot anyone", instead of asking him not to shoot and then suggesting that if he did shoot, it be at S_S. That was poor communication on our part once we had realized that a proper shot would prevent the threat we were concerned about. Call it irrational paranoia all you want, we saw a clear and present danger and did everything in our power to ensure a game loss wouldn't occur outright because people were being short-sighted.
I already addressed the farside shot at length in the past. In short, everything about her play was scum!me's wet dream, and she was the easiest possible 3p lylo mislynch, since all 3p lylo's required the removal of her defenders.
I'm quoting this to say that this is still something I have an issue with--it is
not
something you've said which made me go, "That's actually a good point". But, unlike most of what I've brought up as responses...I can't think of how to verbalize a response here. Maybe I can do it later, but this is basically me saying: "This part's not satisfactory, but I don't know how to explain why it's not satisfactory".
You suggest that the night kill variants were "less certain", and you'd be right if we still had our ability...but we don't.
While this is probably something which is true, is there any way you can definitively PROVE you don't have your ability? I believe you have indicated before there is, but this is a formal request to restate it for the record, just to be sure.
Umm. Don't put words in my mouth. I am pretty fucking sure I did not claim that "farside deserved it".
That's a succinct paraphrase on my part. Are you going to deny you made posts about all the things farside did that were scummy, even after she flipped town? Because I sure remember plenty. And for me those posts boiled down to "farside deserved it". You can argue that exact phrasing is too harsh. You can argue there are perhaps better terms to be used. Maybe, "because farside was that scummy, and was too unbelievable". Or something to that effect, if you feel "farside deserved it" is too accusatory. The point still stands that it was shifting blame onto farside and not accepting any of it for yourselves.
And no, protecting TWIE was not Titus' idea. Ensuring Farside was lynched ASAP was.
The two are functionally identical. I wanted TWIE dead. You pushed farside instead, shielding yourself behind Titus as justification for not lynching scum. So it was Titus's fault, or farside's fault, if you prefer, but it was still you placing the blame elsewhere, not on yourself.
Basically every point here you're saying, "I wasn't saying they were responsible! I was saying this different thing...which says they were responsible". So my point still fucking stands. Even right now, in this very damn post, you're shifting blame away from your slot.
Spoiler: blahblah
No, mastin, you have NOT been objectively right at almost every turn. You've been stubborn. You've refused to admit you were wrong.When we've responded to your posts, you've brushed our responses aside as inconsequential, and done EXACTLY what you accuse us of doing, strawmanned them.
The ONLY request you've made that was "simple" that I didn't deliver on in a timely fashion was you asking me to propose a game winning plan, and yes, that was a misunderstanding.
Wtih regards to the difference in our attitude towards you: You've NEVER gone so far out of your way to paint us as scum. From the moment you DELIBERATELY misinterpreted a post I made some days back asking you to explain how something would benefit me (or something along those lines, I honestly can't remember the post details), I've viewed you as hostile and unreasonable, and there's nothing you've done to make me feel any differently. You admit this is just a rehash of things you've said before, THINGS WHICH I HAVE INDEED ADDRESSED FOR THE MOST PART, BUT WTIH RESPONSES YOU SIMPLY CHOOSE TO BRUSH OFF.
Spoilered to say: this is "feel bad" posting.
And not "feel wrong" posting.
Regarding us never admitting fault: Look at your voting history throughout the game. Look at the pushes you made. There were some good ones, yes, but there were also PLENTY of bad ones...and you haven't displayed contrition for those.
Aside from how that is easily shown to be objectively false given that I have on multiple occasions admitted to every shortcoming I've had, aside from how behind the scenes I've been wracked with doubt ever since the Mathblade lynch showed my approach to the game was laced with arrogance, aside from how this is more feel-bad posting rather than feel-wrong posting, aside from all of that and probably more: deflecting the issue by saying, "You did it too!", is not going to earn you favors.
I wasn't looking for you to say, "mastina, you did this".
I was looking for you to address my fucking point.
Saying "you did this" (especially when this is actually one fucking thing I
haven't
done--many of the sins you accuse me of I am in fact guilty of but NOT this one)? Not addressing my fucking point.
You have not admitted fault. Not once. You have made misplay after misplay this game. And after each misplay, you have denied responsibility for it having been a misplay.
I'm not sure what you're referring to in a lot of these stance shifts, actually. A shitload has happened.
Prime example: On Episode 9, when we mislynched Fuzzy, you had Almost50 as your strongest townread. You posted many plethora of reasons for why he wouldn't be scum, and were his strongest defender.
On Episode 10, you had Almost50 as your preferred lynch...but more than that, he was actually your strongest scumread. It wasn't that you were lynching him because of a plan to lynch him. You were lynching him because suddenly, all the above evidence was washed away and he was now scum for...well, I don't recall the reasons off the top of my head so I'm not going to claim you used stretchy reasons because I don't actually remember what reasons you used. But you were using actual reasoning to call him scum. Not "this is POE". Not, "this is part of the plan". He was actually
scum
to you.
Those types of shifts with no given explanation are what I am talking about. You discarded previous long-held opinions when they became inconvenient stances to hold. And you've been doing that the whole game. Can you name a stance you have held which was inconvenient to hold? farside doesn't count, for a myriad of reasons. I mean, aside from farside, is there a single stance you have held which was inconvenient for you to have held at that time? A stance which you were firm on, and yet which was something that was actually detrimental to you, yet you held it anyway because you're town and your reads are what they are?
Do you have so much as a single non-farside instance of a read of that type in the entire game?
I saw none. Instead, I see stances as most convenient to be held.
First of all, if we had the capacity to treat you this whole different way deliberately and manipulate you at any time, why didn't we do it throughout the game?
You did. Midgame, the non-shitty way of treating me was how you were treating me. Coincidentally, that is the time period you were in my townbloc.
Even large swathes of the earlier part of the game, where you weren't my main focus, where you weren't my main push, you were not treating me with hostility.
It was only when I formed the scumread that this attitude emerged from you.
Also, again, after spending the entire game antagonizing you...WHY ARE YOU HERE to be the critical vote?
I'd be here no matter what thanks to the gem's bubble mechanic. randomidget wouldn't be able to read all of my posts and translate them fast enough to get proper responses, sure. But he'd be getting the bombardment all the same.
Do you think that randomidget would have gotten my list of grievances, looked at it, and said, "but i townread them tho :/" and just left it at that?
Do you think that I wouldn't point out to randomidget, "RANDOM. I AM DEAD. YOU ARE ALIVE. WHY THE FUCK DO YOU THINK THAT IS?"?
Do you think that the feedback I'd give to him would have been discarded as useless?
Given how much randomidget was sheeping others, namely MoI but also to some extent he actually did listen to me, I'd say no.
I am here because I am the only option to be here.
I am also here because I'm expected to vote wrong, yes. I'm here because it's expected that I have a higher chance of voting wrong than randomidget would. Yet that's not something I see as being alignment-indicative for you.
Grapes event he used was a climax event.
Was it a climax-specific event?
Or was it just USED during the climax?
I'm relatively certain mine could have been used at literally any time there was the appropriate stress--day, night, doesn't matter.
If we could have anticipated both grapes and randoms actions, as you believe we would, then we would have anticipated a Shiro/us/Randomidget LYLO.
Never said you couldn't! I said that you had a scenario where killing me gave you a lower chance of victory than killing randomidget.
And it's true. You know DAMN good and well that when I live past my expiration date, I get paranoid.
You know DAMN good and well that I can be charismatic when I need to...and that if I died instead of randomidget, I would be right there, in a private topic with randomidget, separated from the main thread, able to convince him. I could lay traps for you, and I could explain to him exactly why I was doing what I was. You nightkilling me would be an objective mistake, because it'd place me in a position where my influence on the gamestate would INCREASE.
In short, a dead me = no reevaluation on RR = me pushing randomidget to vote for RR.
An alive me = wracked with self-doubt = me having not a fucking clue what the fuck I'm doing.
this is all mushy feeling stuff, and I can't argue with that.
No, that part is one of the few things which isn't mushy feelings. Your own response is contradictory:
Yes, I've avoided closing doors because YOU DON'T HAVE GOOD REASONS to close them. There's an entire game of evidence of scumhunting and gamesolving.
If there's an entire game of evidence of scumhunting and gamesolving...why are the fucking doors still open? Why is there so much room for them to still be there? Why aren't any of them getting closed until they're literally impossible? That's not mushy feels. That's simple fact. You've kept options open. You've not worked to close them.
Why do you think I would PREFER to have to fight tooth and nail to convince you, to capitalize on your nature and manipulate you, when instead I could be spending the day talking to random and shiro?
My options here are that you either forgot about the bubble mechanic by this point, or are conveniently ignoring them.
Neither seems like something you should do as town.
As addressed, though, the answer to the question IS in fact, the bubble mechanic. I would do MORE damage behind a closed door than I would out in the open. I would do MORE damage with a private topic to talk to randomidget in which you had no access to. I would do MORE damage by being able to know I was dead and dead for good reason, and I would be able to talk to randomidget and appeal to him as a result, in a place you would have zero influence over. You couldn't talk to me. You couldn't do anything with me. But I could do plenty to you, even when dead.
Again, it's not like there's much of a choice on-hand. You leave randomidget alone, the bubble mechanic is in play. You leave me alone, you have to deal with me. But I am easier to deal with. I am easier to mislead. I am easier to placate. randomidget might have been townreading you, but it was still easier to placate me because again: randomidget would have access to me. randomidget would know he was townreading you and yet still alive. randomidget would have all of me pushing him, pressuring him every step of the way with absolute conviction to vote RR. That, you'd have no control over whatsoever.
But by killing randomidget and leaving me alive? You can interact with me directly. And interacting with me is...a good way to get me in this zone of self-doubt. You claim, "we fully expected the day to open with you voting us", yet that's bullshit; you know me well enough to know that I would absolutely doubt EVERYTHING come lylo. So I'd be easier to sway.
It's not that you have to have mysterious mystical knowledge of me.
It's that you have game experience with me and you call me a friend.
My friends know how I fucking think.
My friends know that I have incredibly-low self-confidence. That I have high levels of self-doubt. That every step of the way, I am plagued by my indecision. I have a reputation for the contrary, sure! I have the "mask" of mastina. The mask of my play, the me that I show of, the fearless, doubtless mastina who would never admit she could be wrong. But it's just a mask, and every one of my friends. Every player who knows anything about me. Knows that it's just that, a mask. That inside I am a shattered, broken, frail individual who simply can't sort the game and tries to pretend otherwise.
It doesn't take some oracle to know this. It doesn't take some level of intimate, deep knowledge about my psyche that you couldn't have. All it takes is even the most basic of understandings of how my mind operates--something you have on multiple occasions demonstrated you have awareness of. You might not know the specifics. Fuck, even I don't, I don't think anyone on here does. But you know the generalities of how I go about my process. It's impossible for you not to know this much about me.
Look those posts over.
I will try to (I have less than 24 hours and yet I've got like a month's worth of work for this game; I'm not even sure what I need to prioritize at this point), but I still want to ask: why does Drixx make the mistake at all, though? And why does he continue to misunderstand when you were coordinating with him to try and clarify?
I've asked for a lot of separation of you two as individuals in a great many number of my responses...but the simple fact is, when you two are Reasonably Rational, the hydra, you two by and large blend together. You become something "more" than you otherwise would be. You can still tell who is posting often even without signing. You can still make mistakes. But you make mistakes less often, because you coordinate your efforts, you coordinate your posts, you talk to each other, you communicate with one another. And beyond that, Drixx misinterpreting it feels like something which is a stretch in of itself--even if he was playing solo, I find it difficult to believe he makes such a large mechanical misplay.
We NEVER viewed Farsides role as so similar that we should be suspicious, and if we had said suspicion wouldn't have applied because of our knowledge of the mod meta, and again because of said mod meta, there was no need to clarify that our ability could stop factionals.
I'm not talking about that. That wasn't the issue. The issue is, you could have tried to verify farside's status with her block. It didn't matter what your read on her was. It didn't matter what you viewed her ability as, relevant to her alignment. She had a block. You previously had a block.
Why weren't you trying to confirm the specifics of her block, to see if you could either verify it or catch her in a lie? You should have jumped at a golden opportunity to catch farside as a liar with something which was 100% beyond all deniability: knowing your roleblock, and knowing hers, and asking about yours, and asking her to talk about hers. Would that have definitively "caught" her, no, but was it worth trying?
Why WASN'T it worth trying? That's the fucking problem; you didn't try it when you should have.
It's a request for something that can't be provided, because you've already dismissed out of hand every action we've taken that's been pro-town, because of your results bias.
You call it results bias.
I call it actually wanting results.
Because let me tell you something.
Push come to shove.
When it comes to the top-tier players.
The players who are scum are going to get results which favor the scum and did not favor the town. (Most likely, while APPEARING to have favored the town, except for small details. Hint: this is what I see your play as!)
The players who are town are going to get results which might not always favor the town, but do so more than not. Their results might sometimes favor the scum, but often don't favor either alignment. Basically, the players who are top-tier town will have town-results > null results > scum results in order of likelihood.
Where are the RESULTS of your play?
YOUR play.
Not the play of others you assisted with.
Not the play which was good in THEORY if not in practice.
Where are the results of what YOU, PERSONALLY have done, THAT HELPED THE TOWN DIRECTLY AND UNAMBIGUOUSLY with zero room for scum to have gained something.
That is what I don't see from you.
And that's the largest fucking problem.
Yes, as town, you are not going to make perfect plays.
You will make mistakes.
You will have plays which you thought were good but which in hindsight were a mistake.
Those exist in every game. They exist in my game, they exist in Titus's game, they'd exist in your game.
But as town, you are still going to make plays which show town results.
Maybe not immediately. Maybe not on D1. In fact, many town players of good skill get mislynched because they were unable to show those abilities at that stage in the game even if they were capable of it at a later time.
But you've have eleven fucking days, eleven full day phases, to show off your town self, to further a town objective.
So why the fuck is it that when I look at your play, instead of seeing stuff that furthers a town win, I see shit that has helped the scum survive this long?
You say the results are irrelevant?
Fuck that, results are everything.
What results do you have to show for your play?
That's what I'm asking, but which you're not giving me.
And you keep saying, "no slot except Xkfyu could".
Bullshit.
I can lay out reasons for almost every player. randomidget. Magna. Fuzzy (not in his vigs, but in his voting pattern). grapes. Titus. kraskaesque. Creature. Yume. NotChara. Klingoncelt. McMenno! The list goes on and on. Some have smaller contributions than others. Some have contributions which are a little bit hazier since we don't know the alignments of four key players that they focused on, but by and large, I can name reasons each and every player gave results, actual RESULTS which were unambiguously town.
I can't name those results for you. Maybe your definition of results is different than mine. Mine's not, "hey I vigged scum, that's results" as you seem to think it is. It's, "we did this, and this was what happened as a consequence. This consequence was pro-town because it helped the town in this way and hurt the scum in that way". That's almost entirely, utterly absent from your posting. You lack town results.
You have plenty of scum results.
You have a plethora of, "This was town, even though...", "this was a good plan, except...".
You're the only one who doesn't have, "This was town, because it did this town thing and it worked to do that town thing".
If you look at things based ONLY on results, then your analysis is fundamentally flawed, because it is naturally biased by hindsight.
Whoa, reached lylo and I am not even referenced in the pile of people that produced town results.
I feel sad : (
To me:
shiro you are a charmer you were obvscum but for some reason people just wouldn't eliminate you ~Antihero
About me:
I stg this is how conversations with Lucifer go. ~Papa Zito
Gonna answer your first few comments before I head off to work. I'll try to get around to the rest at work, but the formatting will surely be messier for each portion.
In post 12483, Reasonably Rational wrote:In a scum!SC universe without scum bussing, it was quite improbable that he would get lynched.
And yet, for me to believe you are town, it requires exactly that:
I am believing Shiro is town.
grapes did not START the game as scum. (This I am 100% firm on, as an absolute fact.)
As a result, if you were town, SirCakez would be an all-town lynch. (Well, effectively so.)
True. However, I believe a large part of why that occurred was due to farside removing the alliance, which is not something i could have predicted. At the time I made that post, a lynch on SC was, in spite of the votes currently on him, a pipe dream. This is something I'm pretty good at, that is, evaluating how likely suspicion on someone is to turn into an actual lynch, taking into account various factors. It's a large part of why I'm good at avoiding getting lynched in spite of nearly always attracting some degree of early game pressure...I know when it becomes possible that, without damage control, a lynch is more likely than not, and move to get out ahead of it.
I'm actually not really sure what the point of this portion is. There are two options. Either I was wrong in gauging the probability of an SC lynch occurring(which, btw, is the opposite of what you're accusing me of doing. You believe that I accurately gauged the probability of his lynch, and chose to bus(which of course begs the question of why did only *I* bus?)), or because circumstances changed in a fashion I couldn't predict, my evaluation was rendered obsolete. I don't believe either of those possibilities are significant.
Why would I choose to be the fulcrum of the lynch rather than rallying the troops to push elsewhere?
There were signs of exactly that, were there not? And when those attempts didn't materialize, the lynch went through anyway.
The SirCakez wagon had no scum counterwagon.
So it's not a question of "why would a scum player not try to rally the troops elsewhere?".
Because we know they didn't. Regardless of who is scum, we know they failed to do this, because there was no scum counterwagon. None really. The closest was farside (Almost50) at 3. Shiro (Skybird) had 2. McMenno had 2 but none were scum. So we know for a fact...scum were not wagoning town. Asking, "Why didn't we?" is pointless as a result, because we know scum didn't.
No. It's important because of your constant BoP'ing of me. You can't conveniently ignore actions(or lack of action) that contradict the level of play you expect from me, while simultaneously holding up other instances as proof that I must have been involved.
The question isn't "Why would a scum player not try to rally the troops elsewhere?" It's..."why wouldn't Reasonably Rational try to rally the troops elsewhere, OR try to make sure more of his team was on the lynch?"
I've pointed out the incredibly stupid things I, as scum, would have had to do up to this point. You still haven't actually addressed these points to my satisfaction actually. Is your position that we masterfully dodged things while making some fundamental mistakes, or is it that the fundamental mistakes were in fact ploys on our part?
Option C: the scumteam this game, while playing
well
, has not played perfectly. This is undeniably a fact, yes?
This applies regardless of who is scum: the scumteam has managed to evade every town trap, every town maneuver. This is the type of play I describe as the "scum mastermind".
But the thing about even the best scum players is that they are not infallible. They are human. They can make mistakes, make a miscall, make a misjudgment: something which
seemed
like a good idea at the time, but which in hindsight proved to be an error.
Would you say it is beyond your capability to make a mistake in a scum ability when scum?
Of course it's not. You make mistakes
less
than a normal scum player would. You have a tighter grasp of mechanics than most players, so you usually understand the consequences of your actions. Yet you can fuck up.
And when you fuck up as scum, what do you do as scum?
Be honest.
You already know the answer: You self-burden-of-proficiency with damage control and say, "If we were scum, we would be competent enough
not
to do that".
Can't argue with this. I'm capable of making mistakes. If I made a mistake, I would definitely attempt to at least get some benefit out of it. That's absolutely correct.
The issue here is the matter of scale though. I could reasonably see you feeling this way if it were just one out of character thing, but it's not JUST one thing. It's several things. Not just is it several things, it's several OBVIOUS things that would cause me to double down on my planning and predictions, to ensure these things wouldn't happen again...and yet they did.
I am FAR more paranoid now than I have been in the past.
Is it fair to say I am paranoid of your alleged paranoia?
Fair enough. I can't say much more about this other than to suggest you at least skim our hydra pt notes in Space Dandy 2(I'm pretty sure we copied most of it in) It shouldn't take long, but you should see us, from VERY early on, working out auto-loss scenarios and trying to prevent them from happening. As much as I love Varsoon and the work he does, Saga Frontier weakened my belief that he wouldn't utilize mechanics that would make the game feel unfair at endgame. Space Dandy 2 crushed that belief, and Bloodborne cleaned up the rubble.
Off to work, I'm going to tell Drixx that he should respond to the rest if he feels up to it, otherwise I'll do my best to get to it myself.
You'll note that I never answered your question about why Shiro is scum.
That's because I don't really have any reason to believe he's scum, other than PoE. Other than "If it's not A50+Grapes, it MUST be Grapes+Shiro". There have been things , even today, that could be argued as being scummy. He misrepresented our power as a mass roleblock. He asked for us to vouch for his words in the Titus/us/him PT earlier, but also claims that he didn't read it well enough to have anything to say about it today. His event utilization can be viewed as a hedge against the kill failing, to make sure he couldn't be bubbled tonight, because using it on random really doesn't make all that much sense for town!Shiro.
The problem is, all those things are well within the boundaries of mistakes and contradictions I would expect from town!Shiro. He didn't even understand how his own role functioned until he claimed and we pushed him to get more details so we could maximize it. He COULD easily not read a PT but expect us to corroborate the things he said the view times he did speak in there. He COULD use that ability expecting random to be alive and ensuring that the pool of misbubbles was smaller.
He could also be feigning any of it.
If you look at the rest of the game, other than the MoI kill, there's no objective reason to believe he's either town or scum.
Contrast that with Grapes and A50.
If it were a Grapes+A50 versus just Shiro equation, I would always believe Grapes+A50 was more likely.
However, because it's a Grapes+A50 versus Grapes+Shiro equation, I don't have enough certainty either way to make that call.
Gun to my head, etc etc? I'd say it was Grapes+A50, because that's what Drixx believes and I'm neutral...but it's close. It's really, really, really close.
Cerb basically already pointed out the things I had noted that were off about Shiro. None of it is enough to move the probability of Shiro+Grapes even close to the A50+Grapes level.
Grapes is obviously scum due to the fact that a town!Grapes would not have withheld that is event was climax. Town!Grapes would have told random that and we would have been able to plan for it. He therefore had to lie to conftown to get unbubbled. That's not a town action. Finally it then logically proceeds that either MoI was completely wrong about what Varsoon told him about bubbling, OR, Grapes must have a partner. I choose to believe MoI was thorough enough to be sure of what he told us, so it then logically follows that Grapes has a partner.
Since we are town (We just are. You are wrong if you still somehow feel otherwise. I don't know any other way to explain it to you. Your own predictions for how town us would behave have been borne out even.), that means the partner must be A50 or Shiro.
Case for A50: his actions yesterday. Absolutely over the top scummy. I have to assume misunderstanding on his part though. That quick reversal of throwing a 2nd vote on us (before we even posted, but AFTER he called for everyone to talk first and vote second) only makes sense in the context of the possible lowered lynch threshold, imo. That's why I'm convinced he's the scum we're looking for. This also dovetails with the gems having a way to escape their vulnerable time as we would now be seeing scum gems escaping during their vulnerable time and betting the game that you will vote us rather than risk the no lynch. It just FITS. And you know town!me well enough to know that when I can't lock someone down via logic, I look to narrative. On the narrative level, Grapes + A50 rings true, and it also brings Varsoon's warning not to try and flavor game this game into razor sharp focus. So much flavor spec about the army has led people to assume things, and all the while there's a built in blank slate villain for Varsoon to use (and therefore reason for him to warn against flavor breaking). Again... it just FITS.
Case for Shiro: Asked us to vouch for him several times in the game about the Titus alliance; however, ignored all of our requests that he go look and confirm info from there when it would have been useful. Has at least selective knowledge from that alliance PT while claiming not to have read it. Tried to suggest that our stolen RB ability was some kind of mass roleblock when both Cerb and I clearly stated that if we had ever used it, we had to keep it up on a single target as a new action each night or else stop blocking them. There's no possible way to have misunderstood as we were crystal clear. That's probably the strongest objective point against Shiro. You were looking to figure out how to fill a perceived power vacuum on the scum team and positing that we might be the answer, and Shiro chimes in and plants the idea that we were some mass roleblocker to start ... and there's just no way to arrive at that conclusion. This gets even worse when I consider the finale alliance with shiro and titus, because Shiro told us he could copy the ability set of someone in a PT he made permanently (or something like that... Cerb says he just misunderstood) which led to Titus and us planning how to use a hidden Shiro with a copy of our roleblock to juke scum out. While we would be publicly forcing people to ally with us and be roleblocked, the idea was to have Shiro quietly go after the bigger threats since nobody but Titus (IC) and us would know that Shiro had copied our abilities. Then all of a sudden Shiro clarifies that he can't do what he said, which led to Titus stealing our power to confirm our honesty. If I posit scum!Shiro, this exchange looks REALLY bad in hindsight because there's no way on earth Shiro could have been involved in that discussion and believed we had a mass roleblock ability.
As much as I'm paranoid it could be Grapes + Shiro, I think the stronger case is Grapes+A50. It fits elegantly (which is a Varsoon signature) and more importantly it fits the players involved.
We both already laid out the reasoning for why lynching us ends in a defeat earlier, so I'm not going to rehash that. You already know the stakes.
I think if you stop and think about it you'll realize that Grapes basically HAS to be scum, and if you posit A50 as the partner you'll find that it makes more sense than anything else. Especially the parts that just line up perfectly with how Varsoon does things. It's perfectly elegant, and that's literally what Varsoon goes for in setups. I'm kind of almost as much convinced by that aspect as I am from the way A50 played yesterday. A50's play yesterday screamed "we just need this one more mislynch!".
By eliminating Random and leaving you in a game state with us and shiro, I believe they used their equivalent of the Gem faction's commute to put you in this very position. In order to win you have to go against every instinct you've had all game and choose to surrender control and not lynch. The up side is that we can be pretty strongly sure that Varsoon would not let them kill, escape the day phase where they could get lynched, and then kill again, so a no lynch here and tomorrow arriving is basically CONFIRMATION of Grapes+A50 and we simply lynch Grapes and he flips scum and then we lynch A50.
I don't know how else to put it to you. I'm so sure of it that it hurts and it fits so fucking perfectly and makes so much sense. It makes
WAY MORE SENSE
than positing that I would leave an antagonistic you alive if I were scum. You were super sympathetic to me and helping me in SMITE and I ruthlessly cut you down. You know exactly how cold and calculating I am as scum. You know I am VERY good at figuring out who my biggest threat is and getting rid of them and then talking my way out of it. If we were scum, you are literally the
only
slot all game who never came around to reading us as town. If you want to talk about us honestly, you have to explain that, and if you are honest, you know there's no way a scum!me lets you live beyond many days ago. You have been conftown since the beginning, so there would be literally no suspicion upon your death. Like ... you would be a freaking gift to a scum!me because I could kill you and then easily play the responses as I needed.
Bleh. Sorry to triple post. I had mostly skimmed what you said because I saw Cerberus posted already this morning. I did see you ask us to convince you to vote shiro. The thing is I believe that lynching Shiro results in a loss, and while I could probably make a good case on him ... I just don't believe it. I'll be around if you want to ask questions but PLEASE for my sake don't make really long walls. I have too much on my plate and won't be able to adequately respond to them. Give me short questions or realtime it with me if you want.
I actually don't recall at all how the DGB wagon formed and was pushed. What I do remember is that you say the SC wagon was allowed to happen because he lost all value once DGB and KC had their interaction...yet after the SC flip was revealed, and I would have had every expectation that the entire town would turn on DGB...I instead chose to protect her?
The thing is, you were distancing the slot while still protecting it: you were pointing out things which were bad, but making excuses to not actually lynch her.
This continued even past the Klingoncelt lynch.
You held a stance that Klingoncelt's flip would, if containing certain details, be bad for DGB...and it wasn't until Klingoncelt was in fact flipped that you did exactly that and condemn DGB. Prior to that point, you were still taking that same distancing-while-defending approach.
[
Unfortunately, this is another one of those "we just don't have the time for me to actually respond to this properly. I think the simplest thng to do will just be laying out everything I remember about the conversations Drixx and I had regarding the DGB and the traitor possibikities.
Once SC flipped, Drixx and I had three possible suspects in mind for jaspar:
DGB, because of the KC interaction.
Firebringer, for early commentary about homeworld gems etc.
Xkfyu because he responded to something someone said in a fashion that hinted that he was not town aligned. In his case we were more sure he was gem related, because he had said he could be confirmed at asked later time, so we believed he was possibly a recruitable gem.
So, DGB and Firebringer were our prime candidates for the traitor SC was designed to find, but the evidence for each of them was really bad...as in, it required them to have played at an exremely low competence level in terms of their crumbing. In addition, DGB claimed ascetic, which if true, would have meant that scs flipped power would not have worked on her, thereby taking her out of the running as traitor.
All the discuss Drixx and I had about this took place over multiple days, and so it's difficult for me to, without a lot more research, tell you exactly where we were in our thoughts at any given point during the time she was alive. I know her ascetic claim was a huge point in favor of her claim that what she did in the pt with KC was a gambit, rather than a scum claim, but we knew it was quite possible that the claim was another gambit to cover her first one.
Anyways, something to note here: we didnt actually condemn dgb at kcs flip. We DID pressure her more. It wasn't until a couple days later that a lynch actually formed on dgb. That wagon in particular I don't actually recall the details of.
Post
Post #12498 (ISO) » Thu Feb 09, 2017 11:45 am
Postby Shiro »
Is the confirming that it isn't grapes and me?
Btw I think I just forgot you said you can have only one person blocked ^_^;
To me:
shiro you are a charmer you were obvscum but for some reason people just wouldn't eliminate you ~Antihero
About me:
I stg this is how conversations with Lucifer go. ~Papa Zito
Post
Post #12499 (ISO) » Thu Feb 09, 2017 12:49 pm
Postby Reasonably Rational »
In post 12498, Shiro wrote:Is the confirming that it isn't grapes and me?
Btw I think I just forgot you said you can have only one person blocked ^_^;
I'm as sure as I can be that it's Grapes and A50. If I had ironclad logic to prove it, I would have. It could be Grapes and you, and if that's the case, then a no lynch would result in a loss, which I would view as directly my fault.
It's just that on top of the reasons to believe they are scum, there's also the elegance and the narrative aspects. When logic doesn't produce an ironclad gotcha case, I look to narrative.
Let me turn the question back on you: Do you see any flaw in my argument about Grapes + A50 and how it fits in so many ways? Poke holes if you can ... or if you can't, add your own thoughts to it. I'm very interested in seeing what you have to say and your own thoughts on it.
