prez infinity mafiascum 2016: the general creaks into action

[N]

drench you are going to break my scrolly wheel

[Drench]

THE IDES OF MARCH

Here is the truly exciting thing about the Ides of March. The Democrats are proportional, and they will always be proportional, and whoever wins the most votes will have the most pledged delegates.

Not so in the Republican race. RNC rules demand that all contests prior to March 15th (except for a couple, most notably South Carolina, which got grandfathered in to winner-take-all by congressional district) be proportional. The states can make their own rules for thresholds, but proportionality is the go.

But, it is March 15th. The rules no longer apply. And Florida, with 99 delegates; Ohio, with 66; Illinois, with 69; and Missouri, with 52 have heeded the call. Those four states are winner-take-all. If someone wins by one vote in each state, they get at least 250 delegates. No pressure,

Abbott

and

Negarir

.

Let's get thrill-sy.

[Drench]

NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS (

REPUBLICAN

)

Nine delegates. Winner-take-all. The primary season has truly begun, sweaties.

Spoiler: The Northern Mariana Islands Republican Caucus; Tuesday, 15th March, 2016

The final results have been certified.

The winner of the Northern Mariana Islands Republican caucus...

With 336 votes, and 71.3% of the vote...

Negarir
9 delegates won
+17.3% from polling

Abbott

wins 135 votes, 28.7% of the vote, and no delegates. He overperforms final polling by 5.9%.

Candidate	Vote share	# of votes	Delegates won	+/- final polling
Negarir	71.3%	336	9 dels	+17.3%
Abbott	28.7%	135	0 dels	+5.9%
Total		471	9 dels

The order of play is Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, Illinois, Florida.

drench you are going to break my scrolly wheel

use your trackpad like a civilized internet person

[Drench]

MISSOURI

52 Republican delegates for whoever has the most votes. 84 Democratic delegates for everyone who has at least

15%

.

Spoiler: The Missouri Republican Primary; Tuesday, 15th March, 2016

The final results have been certified.

The winner of the Missouri Republican primary...

With 560,926 votes, and 59.7% of the vote...

Negarir
52 delegates won
+22.6% from polling

Abbott

wins 378,344 votes, 40.3% of the vote, and no delegates. He overperforms final polling by 8.1%.

Candidate	Vote share	# of votes	Delegates won	+/- final polling
Negarir	59.7%	560,926	52 dels	+22.6%
Abbott	40.3%	378,344	0 dels	+8.1%
Total		939,270	52 dels

Spoiler: The Missouri Democratic Primary; Tuesday, 15th March, 2016

The final results have been certified.

In third place, with 159,983 votes and 25.4% of the vote...
































...

Reckoner

. He claims twenty one delegates, and overperforms final polling by 0.9%.



















The winner of the Missouri Democratic primary...

With 280,085 votes, and 44.5% of the vote...

Verka Serduchka
38 delegates won
+14.3% from polling

In second place, with 189,357 votes and 30.1% of the vote,

Spire

. He claims twenty five delegates, and underperforms final polling by 1.1%.

Candidate	Vote share	# of votes	Delegates won	+/- final polling
Serduchka	44.5%	280,085	38 dels	+14.3%
Spire	30.1%	189,357	25 dels	-1.1%
Reckoner	25.4%	159,983	21 dels	+0.9%
Total		629,425	84 dels

Ohio is next.

[Drench]

OHIO

The state that kept Kasich alive: 66 Republican delegates for the winner, none for the loser; 160 proportional Democratic delegates. Big numbers, big stakes.

Spoiler: The Ohio Republican Primary; Tuesday, 15th March, 2016

The final results have been certified.

The winner of the Ohio Republican primary...

With 1,321,249 votes, and 66.4% of the vote...

Negarir
66 delegates won
+18.2% from polling

Abbott

wins 667,711 votes, 33.6% of the vote, and no delegates. He overperforms final polling by 2.7%.

Candidate	Vote share	# of votes	Delegates won	+/- final polling
Negarir	66.4%	1,321,249	66 dels	+18.2%
Abbott	33.6%	667,711	0 dels	+2.7%
Total		1,988,960	66 dels

Spoiler: The Ohio Democratic Primary; Tuesday, 15th March, 2016

The final results have been certified.

In third place, with 234,969 votes and 18.9% of the vote...
































...

Reckoner

. He claims thirty delegates, and overperforms final polling by 1.6%.



















The winner of the Ohio Democratic primary...

With 541,806 votes, and 43.6% of the vote...

Verka Serduchka
70 delegates won
+11.4% from polling

In second place, with 541,806 votes and 43.6% of the vote,

Spire

. He claims sixty delegates, and overperforms final polling by 4.2%.

Candidate	Vote share	# of votes	Delegates won	+/- final polling
Serduchka	43.6%	541,806	70 dels	+11.4%
Spire	37.4%	464,703	60 dels	+4.2%
Reckoner	18.9%	234,969	35 dels	+1.6%
Total		1,241,478	160 dels

North Carolina is next up. Worst state in the union imho.

[Drench]

NORTH CAROLINA

North Carolina is unique in that both contests are proportional: the Republicans have no threshold and 72 delegates, so you'll need a little over one percent; the Democrats have 120 delegates. Good luck fam.

Spoiler: The North Carolina Republican Primary; Tuesday, 15th March, 2016

The final results have been certified.

The winner of the North Carolina Republican primary...

With 729,508 votes, and 63.5% of the vote...

Negarir
46 delegates won
+19.8% from polling

Abbott

wins 420,022 votes, 36.5% of the vote, and twenty six delegates. He overperforms final polling by 2.0%.

Candidate	Vote share	# of votes	Delegates won	+/- final polling
Negarir	63.5%	729,508	46 dels	+19.8%
Abbott	36.5%	420,022	26 dels	+2.0%
Total		1,149,530	72 dels

Spoiler: The North Carolina Democratic Primary; Tuesday, 15th March, 2016

The final results have been certified.

In third place, with 286,494 votes and 25.1% of the vote...
































...

Reckoner

. He claims thirty delegates, and underperforms final polling by 0.9%.



















The winner of the North Carolina Democratic primary...

With 562,451 votes, and 49.2% of the vote...

Verka Serduchka
59 delegates won
+12.8% from polling

In second place, with 293,971 votes and 25.7% of the vote,

Spire

. He claims thirty one delegates, and overperforms final polling by 1.0%.

Candidate	Vote share	# of votes	Delegates won	+/- final polling
Serduchka	49.2%	562,451	59 dels	+12.8%
Spire	25.7%	293,971	31 dels	+1.0%
Reckoner	25.1%	286,494	30 dels	-0.9%
Total		1,142,916	120 dels

Home state of the 44th, Illinois, is coming right up.

[Drench]

ILLINOIS

Illinois is a Democratic base but it still has 69 delegates up for grabs for the Republican winner. The Democrats, of course, have 183.

Spoiler: The Illinois Republican Primary; Tuesday, 15th March, 2016

The final results have been certified.

The winner of the Illinois Republican primary...

With 865,562 votes, and 59.7% of the vote...

Negarir
69 delegates won
+20.0% from polling

Abbott

wins 584,186 votes, 40.3% of the vote, and no delegates. He overperforms final polling by 6.5%.

Candidate	Vote share	# of votes	Delegates won	+/- final polling
Negarir	59.7%	865,562	69 dels	+20.0%
Abbott	40.3%	584,186	0 dels	+6.5%
Total		1,449,748	69 dels

Spoiler: The Illinois Democratic Primary; Tuesday, 15th March, 2016

The final results have been certified.

In third place, with 510,917 votes and 24.8% of the vote...
































...

Reckoner

. He claims forty five delegates, and overperforms final polling by 2.4%.



















The winner of the Illinois Democratic primary...

With 786,310 votes, and 38.2% of the vote...

Verka Serduchka
70 delegates won
+13.9% from polling

In second place, with 758,820 votes and 36.9% of the vote,

Spire

. He claims sixty eight delegates, and underperforms final polling by 1.2%.

Candidate	Vote share	# of votes	Delegates won	+/- final polling
Serduchka	38.2%	786,310	70 dels	+13.9%
Spire	36.9%	758,820	68 dels	-1.2%
Reckoner	24.8%	510,917	45 dels	+2.4%
Total		2,056,047	183 dels

The big one, Florida, the state that I hate with a burning passion, is the last contest for the day.

[Drench]

FLORIDA

It's been a fairly same-same contest so far, but will Florida throw the spanner in the Ides of March works? The Republicans have 99 first-past-the-post delegates, while the Democrats have a massive 247 proportional ones. On the Democratic side, it's the biggest contest to date: let's see what happens.

Spoiler: The Florida Republican Primary; Tuesday, 15th March, 2016

The final results have been certified.

The winner of the Florida Republican primary...

With 1,598,242 votes, and 67.7% of the vote...

Negarir
99 delegates won
+23.8% from polling

Abbott

wins 763,563 votes, 32.3% of the vote, and no delegates. He overperforms final polling by 6.4%.

Candidate	Vote share	# of votes	Delegates won	+/- final polling
Negarir	67.7%	1,598,242	99 dels	+23.8%
Abbott	32.3%	763,563	0 dels	+6.4%
Total		2,361,805	99 dels

Let's finish off with a bang of 247 delegates.

Spoiler: The Florida Democratic Primary; Tuesday, 15th March, 2016

The final results have been certified.

In third place, with 346,647 votes and 20.3% of the vote...
































...

Reckoner

. He claims fifty delegates, and overperforms final polling by 2.6%.



















The winner of the Florida Democratic primary...

With 743,149 votes, and 43.5% of the vote...

Verka Serduchka
107 delegates won
+12.5% from polling

In second place, with 619,387 votes and 36.2% of the vote,

Spire

. He claims ninety delegates, and overperforms final polling by 0.2%.

Candidate	Vote share	# of votes	Delegates won	+/- final polling
Serduchka	43.5%	743,149	107 dels	+12.5%
Spire	36.2%	619,387	90 dels	+0.2%
Reckoner	20.3%	346,647	50 dels	+2.6%
Total		1,709,183	247 dels

Progressive results in a bit. And that'll be it for now.

[Drench]

Spoiler: Progressive Results

Candidate	Vote share	# of votes	Delegates won	Ides of March dels
Negarir	39.4%	8,051,585	622 dels	362 dels
Abbott	38.4%	7,844,484	582 dels	42 dels
Khan	6.8%	1,389,345	127 dels
Defender	8.0%	1,625,703	113 dels
TSL	6.2%	1,255,983	77 dels
Mothma	1.2%	242,511	5 dels
Dels left			946 dels
Total		20,409,611	2,472 dels

Candidate	Vote share	# of votes	Delegates won	Ides of March dels
Serduchka	36.8%	5,679,245	995 dels	353 dels
Spire	22.2%	3,425,572	473 dels	281 dels
Reckoner	20.3%	3,133,314	385 dels	182 dels
McGriddles	11.8%	1,824,899	313 dels
Peanuts	8.9%	1,376,113	198 dels
Dels left			2,401 dels
Total		15,439,143	4,765 dels

[N]

suddenly I hate this game

[inspiratieloos]

So... I think this was the moment where Spire was supposed to start making inroads on overtaking Serduchka. Doesn't look like that worked too well.

[JDGA]

That said, together Spire and Reckoner

are

holding Serduchka below 50% delegates, and she currently needs 57.81% of the remainder to win outright. If neither of them drop out, we could still very easily be seeing a contested convention.
The Republican side isn't much better, with Negarir requiring 65.01% of remaining delegates and Abbott needing 69.24%. Negarir's just overtaken through winner-take-all states, but the remaining proportional ones could put a damper on his claim to the candidacy. If neither of them can win convincingly in the remaining states... there's definitely a strong chance of two contested conventions here? At least, that's how I'm reading it.

[inspiratieloos]

So Drench, how are the relationships between all the candidates?

[Drench]

GLAD YOU ASKED!!!!!!!!1



the table's symmetrical so no worries there. basically the lower the number the worse the relations. also v important to note that it's out of 100 and 50 is "normal", so suffice to say literally everyone hates each other by this point

[Drench]

If neither of them drop out, we could still very easily be seeing a contested convention.

bingo. my biggest worry here is that this extremely plausible scenario happens and i get leapfrogged out of the nomination which would suck!!!!

anyway on the second point, the republican point: problem is that state republican parties, once they can go winner-take-all, really really go for it. there's been a bit of simplification in this game (most of the time, transitioning from winner-take-all by congressional district to winner-take-all proper, which doesn't change

much

but does change a little bit). but basically, from now:



negarir needs 615. there are 659 winner-take-all delegates left. a contested convention is possible, but if negarir keeps sweeping, that's not gonna last long

[Drench]

adding onto that: negarir leads in states totalling 565 wta delegates which means he'd need like, 18% of the vote in proportional states to clinch

[JDGA]

Fair enough, that's info I didn't have (what's the game's projected delegate count sitting at now?)
Serduchka is basically hoping for one of her opponents to drop out at this point, which is certainly possible? All down to whatever method the AI uses to decide...

[inspiratieloos]

If neither of them drop out, we could still very easily be seeing a contested convention.

bingo. my biggest worry here is that this extremely plausible scenario happens and i get leapfrogged out of the nomination which would suck!!!!

Going by the relationships wouldn't the most likely scenario be Reck kingmaking for Sercuchka at a contested convention unless things go hilariously wrong for you?

Fair enough, that's info I didn't have (what's the game's projected delegate count sitting at now?)
Serduchka is basically hoping for one of her opponents to drop out at this point, which is certainly possible? All down to whatever method the AI uses to decide...

The only Dem who might drop is Reck and projections say he's going to be kingmaker if he stays in, so it depends on whether the AI gives value to that.

[Drench]

spire might offer the vp slot who knows

[xRECKONERx]

spire x reck is a 1

knowing this game's AI, that means spire offers me the vp slot

[inspiratieloos]

spire might offer the vp slot who knows

What would that depend on?

Irl candidates generally go for a VP who offsets their weak points in skills/policies right?

[Majiffy]

huehuehue

By Grabthar's Hammer you have not seen the end of Jerfy McGriddles!

[Majiffy]

drench you are going to break my scrolly wheel

Use the down arrow on your keyboard to scroll.

[Majiffy]

I am so ready to VP for Serduchka for my 313 votes.


I'm a whore, it's okay.

[xRECKONERx]

I am so ready to VP for Serduchka for my 313 votes.


I'm a whore, it's okay.

look @ me

im the kingmaker now