Open 19 - Nightless (Over?) before 430

[Guardian]

damn.

I too, am disappointed I changed my vote. I'd be much happier with Thok dead and Elias alive.

Hm. I think the chances of a town win if Thok is town are about 1%, since he's pretty dead set on voting me. Elias made a good point about why he'd be town tho, so I too hold off voting, for now.

Skruffs seemed trying to manouver away from me being lynched, since he thought me first, then him. That is the main point I have there, and it is disconcerting.

I'm gonna think about this. I'd love if whichever of you is scum voted me, I hate being the one to decide, that always goes poorly :\.

[Elias_the_thief]

Ha, you guys are fuckin retarded. go town.

[Guardian]

I've been thinking about this game, as I want a town win and also want to be done with it, and I have a conundrum.

I think Elias's point about Thok makes a lot, lot, lot of sense, and I can see Thok's POV, to an extent. Really, if Thok just voted me, as would have been very plausible, and I got lynched, Elias would have given Thok the game. The thing is, Skruffs wasn't going to go along, BUT Skruffs wanted to lynch Elias, not Thok, so at worst, for Thok-skum, it would be counflip between Guardlynch (ideal) or Eliaslynch (ok).

Also, I can see how Thok might think I'm playing badly, and his metagaming does make sense, again, to an extent.

The problem is, if Thok is town, I don't think he will lynch Skruffs today. The way he phrased his last post, his mind is made up.


Skruffs, OTOH, was very concerned with himself being lynched tomorrow yesterday. He was in my original list of 4 as scum, and I like to think my intuition is better than 1/4. I wish the pages from pre-crash were still here, I'd read them, I can hardly remember what I found so incriminating about them, but I felt strongly about it at the time. I may read Skruff's game summary from when he replaced in very carefully.

He seemed very concerned with himself not being lynched yesterday, and I'm interested if he goes along with Thok's plea, let's just lynch Guardian.


So, I right now feel like 35% that Thok is scum, but 10% that if he's town he'll make the right choice and lynch Skruffs between me and Skruffs. Utility of .60 * .1 = .065.

I feel like 65% that Skruffs is scum, but 50% that if he's town he'll make the right choice and lynch Thok between me and Thok. Utility of .35 * .5 = .175.

So, if I continue feeling that way, it makes the most sense to Thok, since it is more likely that voting him would be more likely to result in a town win. BUT, I find it more likely that Skruffs is scum, so this is really counterintuitive to me to vote Thok. At this point, if I had to vote, it would be for Skruffs. I think.

In any case, I'm going to try and re-read some critical passages (Skruffs right after replacing, Thok too, his predecessors limted contributions, and recent arguments).

I'd like to hear what Skruffs has to say at this point, after pioneering the Elias lynch.

[Thok]

Guardian why are you doing this analysis now, when you could have done it yesterday before hammering Elias?

Elias's argument for me being town applied as soon as he said it yesterday. You could have taken the time then to think about what that meant then and tried to do analysis when an extra person was alive.

Mod

, can we have a prod on Skruffs?

[Guardian]

Guardian why are you doing this analysis now, when you could have done it yesterday before hammering Elias?

Elias's argument for me being town applied as soon as he said it yesterday. You could have taken the time then to think about what that meant then and tried to do analysis when an extra person was alive.

Reasons are twofold:

First and foremost, I, like Elias, wanted this game over. I was/am pretty disillusioned with this website, and cut ties to all endeavours on it except this game and one other. At that point, I thought there was a, while not terribly high, not insignificant chance that Elias was the last scum, and a chance ending the game, while not a sure shot, was lucrative.

Also, this analysis didn't matter yesterday, in that it says nothing about Elias's alignment. It seemed Elias was inevitably the day's lynch, and I figured let's get on with it. You alluded to being pretty set on Elias, as was Skruffs.

I was willing at that point to consider you, and though I hadn't gotten my mind around considering Skruffs, because he had not hammered me yesterday, that possibility was there.

Elias himself, however, was not going to move his vote anywhere besides me, the one person not voting him. It seemed to me that with those circumstances, and Elias lynch was inevitable and the best course of action.

Why did I make the analysis now? Being involved in only two games instead of like 7, including moding and mish-mash, as of as recently as a week or so ago, makes it a lot more fun, and less of a "job" to play.

Too, doing the analysis and trying for a win is owed to everyone who put effort in the game, AND getting it over with asap makes the game end sooner, which again, while not as neccesary as it seemed a few days ago, is still a fairly high priority for me, especially with the fall semester of school forthcoming in a week or so.

Mod

, can we have a prod on Skruffs?

Yeah.

[Thok]

Why did I make the analysis now? Being involved in only two games instead of like 7, including moding and mish-mash, as of as recently as a week or so ago, makes it a lot more fun, and less of a "job" to play.

Too, doing the analysis and trying for a win is owed to everyone who put effort in the game, AND getting it over with asap makes the game end sooner, which again, while not as neccesary as it seemed a few days ago, is still a fairly high priority for me, especially with the fall semester of school forthcoming in a week or so.

You hammered Elias on January 6th, after you had already dropped all of the games on your schedule that were causing you stress.

And you spent a good portion of yesterday arguing that cases were irrelevant.

[Guardian]

Why did I make the analysis now? Being involved in only two games instead of like 7, including moding and mish-mash, as of as recently as a week or so ago, makes it a lot more fun, and less of a "job" to play.

Too, doing the analysis and trying for a win is owed to everyone who put effort in the game, AND getting it over with asap makes the game end sooner, which again, while not as neccesary as it seemed a few days ago, is still a fairly high priority for me, especially with the fall semester of school forthcoming in a week or so.

You hammered Elias on January 6th, after you had already dropped all of the games on your schedule that were causing you stress.

Literally, you can check my posting history, today did I realize that maybe it was specific games and the heaviness of my involvement that was annoying me, and not mafia in and of itself.

And you spent a good portion of yesterday arguing that cases were irrelevant.

In my analysis, show me where I made a case.

Just like I said yesterday, that is my line of thinking turned into words. I definitely wouldn't call any of it a case, as such, it is just me explaining how I feel about the game right now and what my thoughts are about the best course of action.

[Thok]

In my analysis, show me where I made a case.

Just like I said yesterday, that is my line of thinking turned into words. I definitely wouldn't call any of it a case, as such, it is just me explaining how I feel about the game right now and what my thoughts are about the best course of action.

The argument for me being town is a case.

[Guardian]

The argument for me being town is a case.You would categorize it as such?

I think of cases as detailed posts explaining all the pros and cons of a player, looking at every detail possible, and arriving at a concrete definitive conclusion. My few sentences about you have little if any of those characteristics.

Also, I believe I've allowed you to use a subtle rhetorical technique, of chaning the argument by making me assume your premise: That I abhor cases, think they are useless, and that it would be contradictory for me to make one.

To set the record straight and reiterate what I actually said, and do think: I don't think cases are completely useless, I just put less faith in them than most people do.

If you want to call my description of my thoughts about you a case, that's fine.

[Guardian]

To add to my first point:

In addition, cases are typically used to convince others of something. I'm not trying to convince anyone that you're town.

[Skruffs]

I have been very sick, and not able to post on the site much. I am feeling better. Me not hammering guardian yesterday is not a point for me..

I did feel that, if guardian was town, i would be lynched after him, esp if thok was scum, as guardian said.

I did feel that my case on elias was stronger than guard's on thok, and thok's case on guard was very strong.

I still need to read before this page to see how it went down, i am curious why elias was lynched: last time i had checked the thread, nobody thought my case had merit.

[Thok]

I still need to read before this page to see how it went down, i am curious why elias was lynched: last time i had checked the thread, nobody thought my case had merit.

The relevant stuff with the Elias lynch happened starting on post 2138 (that's when I switched my vote. Guardian hammered a few posts later.)

[Skruffs]

I don't think your comparison of Guardian here to Guardian in ork mafia is valid, Thok - Guardian has not been 'helpful' at all here. His determination in this game has never wound up helping town,a nd has been his fall back for everything he's done.

What I'm really confused about is why you both switched over.

Guardian has said he will vote anyone to keep himself alive, and I don't know what that means, because I can understand that. However, a lot of things have happened this game which hurt town and helped scum because of his 'determination' and 'independance'.

To be honest, Thok isn't on my scumscreen at all, and I think I can meta BattleMage (Guardian's replacement) enough to be pretty comfortable with lynching him. That would potentially hand Thok(if scum) the game, but...


Anyways.

Guardian *DOES* have a worse track record than you, Thok.
BUT!
Mafia could easily have a perfect track record. I guess it has to be looked at to see, did Guardian INTENTIONALLY have a bad track record (likely) or is he just goofy?

[Thok]

Mafia could easily have a perfect track record. I guess it has to be looked at to see, did Guardian INTENTIONALLY have a bad track record (likely) or is he just goofy?

Part of my argument for me being town is not merely that I have a good track record, but that if I was scum there were multiple occasions that I took a suboptimal play. If I was scum, this game would likely already be over.

[Guardian]

vote: Skruffs

Why?
*I think he's more likely to be scum.
*His entire last post is trying to rip any waning hesitancy Thok might have that I could possibly be town.
*I re-read Thok and his predecessors, and his actions are not obviously anti-town, and in many instances pro-town. His self pointed out StD town-tell makes sense, especially.
*I re-read my thoughts near the beginning, and I wanted Skruff's blood.
*Also, Skruffs yesterday was very peripheral and focused on not dying, trying to maneuver the lynch such that he wouldn't kick the bucket today.
*Skruffs play right after replacing was crazy, and while I am not going to do any detailed analysis, after reading/skimming his summary post, I can definitely see how it could be scum faking an analysis.
*I'll be damned if my intuitions right after replacing are only 1/4, with IH, VitaminR, AND Skruffs being town.
*Skruffs seems about as likely to lynch me as Thok, and if you both want to lynch me, I at least want to vote first and try to get this right.

Why not?
*Maybe I should have re-read more, and considered more, etc.
*I think Thok's recent dialog with me is BS, in that even if he is town he isn't seriously considering lynching Skruffs -- but maybe not.
*I'd have a better chance of not giving the game to the scum if I let someone else vote first, but scum probably want to wait too.
*I felt so sure about Thok yesterday... but re-reading a lot of that was OMGUS, and didn't make that much sense .

Anyways, that's my final answer.

I'd like Thok to post, and for me to see if I'm an idiot or if I'm right. I'll be kicking myself if my change in opinion from Thok is definitely scum to more likely town than Skruffs is incorrect -- but I believe it is not.

[Thok]

Hi. Not scum.

[Guardian]

Cool .

Me neither .

Any more question or things you need, ask, and I may provide them. We're halfway there.

[Skruffs]

Well, Guardian, I was actually hoping to do this, the last day, with a bit more civility, talk things through before everyone starts voting.
Apparently that really bothers you, because you immediately moved into 'votevotevote' mode.

When did you decide that Thok was town over me?
Or did you always know he was town?

When did you reread thok and his predecessors? I *never* really thought Thok was scum, but you were absolutely sure of it yesterday. Why the switch around? Was it when you realized I was not going to hammer Thok if you voted him?

You have wanted my blood on and off the entire game, and I've always asked you why, and every single time, you forget why you thought I was scum, back off, go to IH. Every single time. It's laughable. Now?


Is focusing on not dying scum? That's been your modus operandi teh entire game. I, not knowing if Thok was the last scum, wanted to lynch Elias yesterday over you. Why? Because elias said openly that he wanted to lynch you, then me. That gives Thok scum the win. Do I think Thok is scum? no. Does that make me very wary, of someone who doesn't care abotu the game, wants it to end, isn't scum hunting, is directing lycnhes? Yes, that seemed very easily to be scum faking bored town.





What was crazy abuot replacing in after NAR? You refuse to explain, so what am I able to defend against? Or does this go back to the stuff that NAR said that I can't defend against, because it's gone?

"*I'll be damned if my intuitions right after replacing are only 1/4, with IH, VitaminR, AND Skruffs being town. " <- What intuition? Are you saying that your feeling on IH and VitaminR were hunches? because you didn't say it was intuition at the time.


Thank you, though, for helping to clear up any misgivings I had about Thok. I was worried about lynching you yesterday because I didn't want to give Thok the game if he was scum, or Elias the game if he was lazy scum (though that's not the case). He's, if scum, at least extraordinarily sadistic scum.

Vote : Guardian

I really think you screwed up in voting rather than talking.

[Thok]

Still not scum. I'll be thinking about this for a while. I want to see you two discuss/argue things among yourself.

[Skruffs]

I get the impression that thok-scum WOULD probably lead things along, if he felt he was safe, which he is in this situation, but... oh well.

I addressed all of Guardian's points in my last post, so I will do a little exposition of my own.

NAR contacted me about the game shortly after the site came back up. I forget when this was. I have more contact with NAR than most others, I actually think he is a pretty decent guy, you jsut have to remember he is young, asian, and very exciteable. He's kind of like an untrained samurai. I replaced in, and there was an issue going around where VitaminR had caught a scum tell on John about John asking about nightkills.

That was a negligible null tell, I think, usually, but it turned out to be a good one in this case - (Which actually led me to be mroe suspicious of VitaminR later on, BECAUSE it was such a good catch on such a little slip). I forget exactly who was on and who was off of the John wagon, but I remember that it came up that Occult and John knew each other out of the game, and Occult wound up 'defending' John slightly. Somehow the wagon wound up sliding onto Occult instead of John. I remember *noticing* this a few days before the deadline lynch, and pointed it out that it was more likely to be John than Occult. However, the wagons didn't shift, and Occult was lynched as town.

Anyways: This is what I wuold have seen if I had ever bothered to reread the entire game after I started in:

you've REALLY lost me now. My argument for voting Occult, was mainly that i felt him and John were scumbuddies. the fact that Occult WASNT scum, implies that the original voting logic was flawed, and thus John probably isnt scum-UNLESS he is much cleverer than he looks, and has succeeded in attaching himself to a townie, which i find unlikely.
BM

BM - John's a master of distancing? You said not once, but twice, that you were voting Occult because you saw Occult and John as a scum pair. You didn't vote John. Now you say John probably isn't scum.

???

There we go. "Occult was town, so John should be too." Which was exactly what I was sayign scum might try to do if Occult had turned up town and John was scum, both of which were true.

[Guardian]

Still not scum. I'll be thinking about this for a while. I want to see you two discuss/argue things among yourself.

I'm not very good at this stage of the game (see Open 29, among others). I tried there, and I suspect I will encounter a similar difficulty here, in that I find it hard to take any of Skruffs's points seriously now that I know he is scum.

I'll try and do better -- starting tomorrow. Going to watch a movie tonight .

[Skruffs]

Any more question or things you need, ask, and I may provide them. We're halfway there.

I'm not very good at this stage of the game (see Open 29, among others). I tried there, and I suspect I will encounter a similar difficulty here, in that I find it hard to take any of Skruffs's points seriously now that I know he is scum.

I'll try and do better -- starting tomorrow. Going to watch a movie tonight .

Either you're earnest about the game, or you could care less. If you can't even bother to keep up the fake-piety for more than an hour, why even start in the first place?

And if you can't take my points seriously, why is it so hard for you to respond to them? Instead you side step that and go directly to "Yeah just vote him". So do you want to talk or not? No? Fine. Don't say otherwise, then. If Thok is the last scum, you were incredibly reckless to cast a vote "because you think he is scum" at lylo. You forced me to counter vote you. If thok WAS Scum, I could no longer look at him as a potential scum, because he would just be able to hammer me if I voiced any suspicion of him. You panicked, because you saw that I was discussing possibly voting you, and decided to make the first move and hope Thok followed along.

Well, my intentions were not to vote you, t least not without more discussion. You did a really good job of responding to all accusations/questions/prods when there were a lot more people in the game. Now you couldn't care less, you just haphazardly vote. Fien. That's your choice.

Thok: It's up to you I guess. I would love to not have to go to sleep wondering how it ends, though.

[Guardian]

Well, Guardian, I was actually hoping to do this, the last day, with a bit more civility, talk things through before everyone starts voting.

Why is that more civil? And why does a game being "civil", in your definition, matter in the slightest?

Apparently that really bothers you, because you immediately moved into 'votevotevote' mode.

See above.

When did you decide that Thok was town over me?

When did I make my final decision? When I read all the stuff yesterday, using most of one of my last days of vacation to do so.

Or did you always know he was town?

NO U.

When did you reread thok and his predecessors?

See above.

I *never* really thought Thok was scum, but you were absolutely sure of it yesterday. Why the switch around?

Read my posts.

Was it when you realized I was not going to hammer Thok if you voted him?

I'm not going to bother answering leading rhetorical questions that do nothing to further your argument and consist solely of rhetoric.

You have wanted my blood on and off the entire game, and I've always asked you why, and every single time, you forget why you thought I was scum, back off, go to IH. Every single time. It's laughable.

I've addressed this over the course of the game. You acted scummy, I got suspicious of you. You beg on hands and knees "but Guaaardian, I am town, obv. how can you possibly find me scummy? You are town, so don't mess this up."

I should go back and quote the time(s) where you in quotes said "but you are town", Thok, you are also perfectly capable of finding them. And you say I'm the one with extra knowledge ;P.

Now?

Now I've read the game and made my final decision, and no amount of begging is going to change mine, try begging to Thok.

Is focusing on not dying scum?

Not imo. Read my sig. I inherently don't trust towns to get the job done when I'm lynched, for good reason.

That's been your modus operandi teh entire game.

It's been part of it, sure. The other parts have been trying to get my suspects lynched.

I, not knowing if Thok was the last scum, wanted to lynch Elias yesterday over you. Why? Because elias said openly that he wanted to lynch you, then me. That gives Thok scum the win. Do I think Thok is scum? no. Does that make me very wary, of someone who doesn't care abotu the game, wants it to end, isn't scum hunting, is directing lycnhes? Yes, that seemed very easily to be scum faking bored town.

I don't see how any of this is relevant to me being scum. I see you rationalizing your trying not to get lynched today yesterday, which makes sense, but it makes sense from the perspective of you being town. Thok is not privileged to any such information, and I know that assertion to be false.

What was crazy abuot replacing in after NAR? You refuse to explain, so what am I able to defend against? Or does this go back to the stuff that NAR said that I can't defend against, because it's gone?

Anything that I didn't cover at that point in the game, I'm not going to cover now. I think I brought up a few specific points back then, I don't care to rehash those arguments, if you want to dig them up and respond to them that is your perogative.

"*I'll be damned if my intuitions right after replacing are only 1/4, with IH, VitaminR, AND Skruffs being town. " <- What intuition? Are you saying that your feeling on IH and VitaminR were hunches? because you didn't say it was intuition at the time.

I decide who is scum through intuition and then try and explain my reasons for it. I play in an intuitive way. Is that a problem?

Thank you, though, for helping to clear up any misgivings I had about Thok. I was worried about lynching you yesterday because I didn't want to give Thok the game if he was scum, or Elias the game if he was lazy scum (though that's not the case). He's, if scum, at least extraordinarily sadistic scum.

I'd say you're welcome but I know this is all a load of whooey.

I really think you screwed up in voting rather than talking.

I don't see how that's possible, I made the best possible play here by voting you.

I get the impression that thok-scum WOULD probably lead things along, if he felt he was safe, which he is in this situation, but... oh well.

I addressed all of Guardian's points in my last post, so I will do a little exposition of my own.

If there's something in here I need to respond to, let me know.

NAR contacted me about the game shortly after the site came back up. I forget when this was. I have more contact with NAR than most others, I actually think he is a pretty decent guy, you jsut have to remember he is young, asian, and very exciteable.

He's kind of like an untrained samurai

.

lol!

I replaced in, and there was an issue going around where VitaminR had caught a scum tell on John about John asking about nightkills.

True.

That was a negligible null tell, I think, usually, but it turned out to be a good one in this case - (Which actually led me to be mroe suspicious of VitaminR later on, BECAUSE it was such a good catch on such a little slip). I forget exactly who was on and who was off of the John wagon, but I remember that it came up that Occult and John knew each other out of the game, and Occult wound up 'defending' John slightly. Somehow the wagon wound up sliding onto Occult instead of John. I remember *noticing* this a few days before the deadline lynch, and pointed it out that it was more likely to be John than Occult. However, the wagons didn't shift, and Occult was lynched as town.

Sure.

Anyways: This is what I wuold have seen if I had ever bothered to reread the entire game after I started in:

you've REALLY lost me now. My argument for voting Occult, was mainly that i felt him and John were scumbuddies. the fact that Occult WASNT scum, implies that the original voting logic was flawed, and thus John probably isnt scum-UNLESS he is much cleverer than he looks, and has succeeded in attaching himself to a townie, which i find unlikely.
BM

BM - John's a master of distancing? You said not once, but twice, that you were voting Occult because you saw Occult and John as a scum pair. You didn't vote John. Now you say John probably isn't scum.

???

Yeah, given the way BM plays, I find that comment more than reasonable.

There we go. "Occult was town, so John should be too." Which was exactly what I was sayign scum might try to do if Occult had turned up town and John was scum, both of which were true.

Let me get this: You made a prediction and BM did what you predicted, so thta makes him scum? That's laughable.

I predict scum will quote parts of this post and respond to it. So if you do that Skruffs, that makes you scum. Bull shit.

Either you're earnest about the game, or you could care less. If you can't even bother to keep up the fake-piety for more than an hour, why even start in the first place?

I watched a movie for a few hours with friends. That equates to not caring about the game? You're really stretching here.

And if you can't take my points seriously, why is it so hard for you to respond to them?

Because I know they're all just made up, and I feel like responding to every single one in a sarcastic, dismissive fashion. That's never worked in the past, though :\.

Instead you side step that and go directly to "Yeah just vote him". So do you want to talk or not? No? Fine.

That's cool with me, if it's cool with Thok. I don't particularly want to talk anymore, I want Thok to vote you. If we must talk, I'll play along for a bit.

Don't say otherwise, then. If Thok is the last scum, you were incredibly reckless to cast a vote "because you think he is scum" at lylo.

It's apparent that Thok isn't the last scum (I trust that he's not being sadistic), and my reasons for voting you went way beyond, "because I think you aer scum", even from the limited outline I gave in the post I voted you.

You forced me to counter vote you. If thok WAS Scum, I could no longer look at him as a potential scum, because he would just be able to hammer me if I voiced any suspicion of him.

Yup, and I'm happy with that.

You panicked, because you saw that I was discussing possibly voting you, and decided to make the first move and hope Thok followed along.

Not at all; I read the game, took into account how you were just as unlikely to vote Thok as he voting you, and decided that I'd go with my thoughts as to who was scum, and put them into action by voting. Panicking had nothing to do with it. I figured I better get the vote out before scum OR town votes me first, if I was right, which I am, I think it puts Thok in a better position to move correctly from here than if I just waited around and you, SKruffs, voted me first, or worse if he voted me and you instantly won.

Well, my intentions were not to vote you, t least not without more discussion. You did a really good job of responding to all accusations/questions/prods when there were a lot more people in the game. Now you couldn't care less, you just haphazardly vote. Fien. That's your choice.

Few of these assertions are true. First, in your post before I voted you, you made it abundantly clear that you were very likely to vote me over Thok. I didn't haphazardly vote... and I could care a lot less, I could have not taken the time to respond. Whatever I do

is

my choice, but your straw manning the hell out of me.

Thok: It's up to you I guess. I would love to not have to go to sleep wondering how it ends, though.

Wait, so after spending a couple of posts chastizing me for "voting haphazardly", you want Thok, all of a sudden, who had been leaning to vote me, to make his decision in one night???

As long as Thok doesn't need me to be really active in a week (when I'll be back at school), he can take as long making his decision as he likes, as far as I'm concerned. Just make the right one.

[Skruffs]

Guardian, how many people who you thought were town did you let die by voting someone else (who was invariably also town)

How many times did you say you priority in this game was to keep yourself alive? When did it become a scum tell? Did you remember all the times you've used that as excuse for scummy actions before you tried to use it against me?

You say you reread thok to figure out he was town, but you were entirely sure he was scum up until the point I indicated that I was more in agreement with his case than yours. Like thok asked, why didn't you reread thok yesterday? And since you were entirely sure he was scum yesterday, why did you hammer elias?

Elias was going to go after me after you were lynced: you knew that. If you thought I was scum yesterday, why did you try to lynch my most vocal opponent? Answer: your priority was to lynch two people before getting lynched yourself. That's why you will vote anyone for any reason.

And that's why you waited until after you hammered elias to try and make me look suspicious for posting a case against him. Because if you defended elias before hand, you would have a harder time explaining haMmering him later.

[Skruffs]

I hate cliffhangers, and I hate being. In lylo standoffs. I like how you are trying to say I'm forcing thok to make a decision, when you forced both of us to make a decision, by speed votng me in lylo. It makes sense, of course, why you would vote first, and post the reasoning later.