Micro 677: Double Day Unlimited in Wifom City - Town Win

[Michael22Omega]

Hello
I am your replacement
I may or may not be an alt

[Michael22Omega]

Okay so
I'm vanilla town
I can vote for as many people as i want
So what if i do it, since i don't have any reads yet
VOTE: Hiraki
VOTE: Towns Last Hope
VOTE: Lycanfire
VOTE: GuiltyLion
VOTE: Not_Mafia
VOTE: Martha Zolanski
VOTE: Pepchoninga nydushermain

[Michael22Omega]

VOTE: TierShift
He's shifty.

So far, according to the wiki, the setup is 2-4 in terms of town wins to scum wins. That's pretty low... Maybe it's just because it's a low sample size but I think if it's representative, it probably shows town reliance on active PRs.

Yeah i agree
Last time i played this set up it ended up at scum win
However the kills going as 2 for town and 1 for scum means our reads are way more significant

Spoiler:

Let's do the math a little bit:

9 People total = 7 town + 2 scum

Let's say we lynch 2 people today and it's a ML
-> 5 town + 2 scum
Night kill
-> 4 town + 2 scum
Lynch 2 People that day and it's a ML = Lose
Lynch 1 Person that day and it's a ML = Lose
Lynch 2 People that day, one hits one is a ML
-> 3 town + 1 scum
Night Kill
-> 2 town + 1 scum
Final 3

If we lynch 1 person today and it's a ML
-> 6 town + 2 scum
Night Kill
-> 5 town + 2 scum*
If we lynch 2 people and it's a ML = lose
If we lynch 1 person and it's a ML
-> 4 town + 2 scum
Night kill
-> 3 town + 2 scum
Final 5

If we go back to *
If we lynch 2 people and one is a ML and one is a hit
-> 4 town + 1 scum
Night kill
-> 3 town + 1 scum
= 2 lynches to hit the last in a final 4

Basically, this seems kind of aimless but what I'm trying to say is that no matter what, it seems like as long as we don't lose right off the bat on day 2, we have 5 lynches at most to find scum, and 3 lynches to hit the first one at least. We pretty much have to decide which route we take and which risks we want to take to try to hit the scum.

I'd argue that finding scum one day 1 is a bit harder, and I'd probably opt to say that we should only lynch one person on day one UNLESS we hit scum #1 and save the rest of the lynches for day 2 and day 3. Even statistically, I think it's beneficial because let's say we're in a final 4 position, we have 2 lynches to find the remaining scum and it's a 50% chance because you're hitting 2 (that math might actually be wrong) in 4. Haven't looked TOO into this yet but the kind of math is there for you and I might have missed scenarios. The only ones that I haven't mentioned are the ones where we win straight up by lynching both scum, and the ones where scum is lynched on day 1. If it gets to that point, we can scrap whatever is in this post and see what our optimal lynch path is.

So do you think we shouldn't lynch rn?

Nyd
wtf is that stuff?

Lol i start understating why this was lynched

Agreed in full with the above post. Single votes are better. Plus alisae is scummy.
VOTE: alisae

On to the theory. It is imperative that we lynch twice everyday. That gives us 3 mislynches and then we can still win the game. If we lynch only once today, we're done for after 3 mislynches.

The highest amount of lynches is always best in a setup like this. I can do the math if anyone disagrees but that town wants to have as many lynches as possible should be a no-brainer.

I was about to say this looks like jumping early
But than i realized i replaced this

VOTE: Not_Mafia

VOTE: Alisae

Good opportunity I guess

Wow
Okay i'm out for now lol it
This'll be hard game

[Michael22Omega]

UNVOTE: Everyone

[Michael22Omega]

Michael I'm not convinced you didn't see the votecount before making those votes

I saw the vote count
I didn't know/tried to check/even cared about how much we need to majority I just wanted to vote everyone

[Michael22Omega]

I could theoretically hammer lycanfire right now.
Why ? ? ?

Also
That's exactly like you hammered Alisae, right?
So
1) why do you blame on something you already did by yourself
2) Did you become more self aware/paying attention about hammered after that?

[Michael22Omega]

Granted it's useless now since we already lynched (and apparently mislynched? mod pls?), I feel like no one actually read my analysis. You don't have to have read the math because that was just my notes which I put up there in case anyone wanted to take a look at it, but no one really read the analysis part which showed why 1 lynch day 1 was not a bad thing depending on how confident we were on lynching the first scum.

I mainly did
But skipped to it when i realized it points that i already know

Votes don't carry over as far as I know, by day I mean phase 1 of the day or whatever the name is

I don't like how this guy ignored the hammer stuff and talks about why would he post
Probably scum
VOTE: Not_Mafia

not mafia is scum

that was not a joking mistake feck off

VOTE: nm

I agree with my replacement
FeelsGoodMan

Also from my POV:

NM is too lazy to check the VC so he RVS

but it ended up hammering Alisae.

Is he scum for my perspective? No but I'm not sure also. There's no VC to check how much votes does a person have and I'm also too lazy to check how much votes are there when the mod can do that for us.

Is that a meta read?

nydush the thing is Not_Mafia often plays like this, as town or scum. He's hilarious and I enjoy playing with him so I say this with love but you're going to have a hard time if you expect to determine his alignment by the amount of useful things he says.

Meh
So this is a meta read
Na i am sticking to my scum read

We got a lynch pretty quickly

This is also bad AF

{nyd, lycan}
{Hiraki, TLH}
{N_M, Tier}
{Martha}

is where I am at

I saw some scummy things from Martha, mainly a feeling which i am not sure about pointing it out
Could totally be a scum

Upon re-reads, Martha is a very strong TR of mine.

Why?

VOTE: Hiraki

This is totally OMGUS btw

[Michael22Omega]

I'd summarize my feeling from what i read so far into this
(nydushermain, TierShift(yes i know it's my slot))
(Hiraki, Lycanfire, GuiltyLion)
(Town, Martha )
(Not_Mafia)

[Michael22Omega]

Actually i just went throw everyone's ISO
Some other thoughts i came to:
I feel a lot better about Lion rn , don't think he is scum

Mainly what i think about Lycanfire is that he(it?) is were kinda lazy town at the start, but than it feels like a town that came off a bad start but than i feel like his town became better with scum hunting which looks like it coming from town perspective

About Martha i am actually getting scum vibes, her start felt really off with how she talked like she had no actual intend to solve/think about anything than there is also something tells me #128 was scum motivated thought with the let's not lynch twice day 1 something that tells me she discussed it in mafia chat and decided baiting town into it is good idea.
I also don't get how she goes from he is not scum in #188 to a better lynch in but still haven't voted anyone
Now in #246 her sheeping makes me think it might me a mislynch, and she just pt her vote there to bully it
UNVOTE: NM
VOTE: Martha Zolanski

Yeah Hiraki stays in my town reads after ISOing

Towns Last Hope is a hydra, which is kinda cool since i just finished hydra game and it's pretty hard to read those because thought process
I'm assuming from what i saw that both hydras voted Alisae at different times
I kinda like him questioning NM reads in #101
I didn't really see a lot of scummy things there as well, so i think i'll just keep him at null for now

nydushermain- sticking to town read

NotMafia started with claiming scum, honestly i actually found scum saying it more often than town
I also get the feeling his tone is awful so w/e the martha interactions i am going back to VOTE: Not_Mafia
Also i feel like he just acts like outed scum with this votes around /non content


Probably would guess Martha/NM as scum team if i have to

[Michael22Omega]

Well yeah this is dead

[Michael22Omega]

I'm glad that you're debating voting a dead player Michael.

Well maybe it'd be good to not write her in living player list next time
Agree?

[Michael22Omega]

I don't know if my posts are unimpactful or people just don't care about my reads other than lion or the people I've ever accused because no one really interacts with me in a meaningful way.

you're pretty much lurking, but I don't blame you

Am I lurking? I have the top post count in this entire game

Not for too long

[Michael22Omega]

IS NM also dead or something?

[Michael22Omega]

VOTE: Hiraki
The other people i voted are dead or something
I need someone to vote
And than you are here
Telling me that i can't vote the people i wanted to vote

And you also didn't answer my question so it's another reason

[Michael22Omega]

Ugh
Please update the OP next time
This got me kinda mad rn

[Michael22Omega]

grain

Could totally be

[Michael22Omega]

What if the team is nyd/lion IMO

[Michael22Omega]

I don't know if my posts are unimpactful or people just don't care about my reads other than lion or the people I've ever accused because no one really interacts with me in a meaningful way.

you're pretty much lurking, but I don't blame you

Am I lurking? I have the top post count in this entire game

Why aren't you voting anyone?

[Michael22Omega]

Why aren't you voting anyone?

Same question can go to town

[Michael22Omega]

I don't know if my posts are unimpactful or people just don't care about my reads other than lion or the people I've ever accused because no one really interacts with me in a meaningful way.

you're pretty much lurking, but I don't blame you

Am I lurking? I have the top post count in this entire game

Why aren't you voting anyone?

Was waiting for you to replace in. I'll have to decide what I think about you.

GL

[Michael22Omega]

I am mainly shocked that both my top scum reads flipped town and don't have the motivation to try and read again

[Michael22Omega]

VOTE: Michael

10/10 effort

[Michael22Omega]

VOTE: Nyd
Give me a better reason for voting me

[Michael22Omega]

I really don't understand the Martha kill, going throw day 1 multiple people were sum reading
I think the only reason she might have been killed is her reads being correct
This is what i found:

Spoiler:

And now I'm at L-1 ffs Not_Mafia don't do that shit.
Also lol you self-voted.
also UNVOTE:

Okay so Alisae is at L-1..

VOTE: Alisae

Good opportunity I guess

But you attempted to hammer him without any reason.

WAIT

NM hammered you

But NM actually hammered him.

So, Why did you attempt to hammer Alisae?

Implies suspect towards TLH

@Hiraki
I'm not scumreading TLH now. Feel free to look on my ISO, and if you still have any questions then ask me.

Some interactions with Hiraki
Takes back her scum read

@Hiraki,
thanks for reminding me about that. I'm not scumreading TLH for that reason, but I'm scumreading TLH because I don't like this post:

I'm so wrong.

I thought THL attempted to hammer Alisae, but he was the first one to vote Alisae I think?

Well, I think that fake hammer isn't scummy af since I think some people use that as a RT.

ok...........

I'm not sure how I feel now/quote]

What does "I'm not sure how I feel now" mean?
I do not want to post my assumption yet, but I don't like what this post is sounding. @TLH, can you explain this?

Suspect into TLH again

if Martha is town I'd say Hiraki is much more likely to be scum, I can't really grok why he's townreading her slot and his scumreads are my townreads

So you're saying that Hiraki is scum because your reads are opposite than him?

Defends Hiraki
Suspect GL

Conclusions:
People who would like her dead: TLH, GL
People who are good with her being alive: Hiraki
Everyone else no clear interactions
VOTE: GL
VOTE: TLH

[Michael22Omega]

UNVOTE: NYD

[Michael22Omega]

Also if you lynch me this game will turn out into 5 posts per day lol

[Michael22Omega]

Michael what are your thoughts on Lycan, you don't really talk about him at all in any of your catchup posts

I think he is towny and a mislynch
I did talk about him

Mainly what i think about Lycanfire is that he(it?) is were kinda lazy town at the start, but than it feels like a town that came off a bad start but than i feel like his town became better with scum hunting which looks like it coming from town perspective

[Michael22Omega]

Here

Spoiler:

That post I promised

My original comment may not have been scum indicative but we had nothing to go with, and it was definitely strange, so I ran with it. I feel like

nobody really tried

to push me off this. Both GL and Hiraki questioned me, but I don't feel like either have tried to explicitly push me away. Tiershift isn't doing it either, his reasoning is that I'm talking about one thing. That's not a push, that's fishing for a read.

I'm discounting splitscum, and the wagon looks worse than offwagon.

Offwagon isn't being opportunistic with my argument. An offwagon team would only question and not push me away if they thought I would tunnel this. Which I think is ridiculous because I wasn't going to and I doubt any one here knows me better than I know myself. That's out.

Meanwhile the wagon shades/refuses to engage me. I'm happy lynching in TLH|NM. VOTE: NM

I think you're town Nydus, but I also think there's not much to be gained from pressing Tier right now, even if you feel like he should have had a better impression of your townplay.

I don't like how Hiraki's reads have developed from what is a cut and paste from day 1. TLH refuses to answer what they thought the composition for the Alisae wagon was. They had a gross interaction day 1 and despite feeling like they have more presence, they seem lazier than Tier. That's suss.

remember when Lycan said that double voting is bad and you shouldn't do it because it's dishonest to who you actually want to lynch and then he proceeds to do it right now (his votes are on me and TLH, something he wanted to do from the start of D2) very secretly

Multi votes are only dishonest if you don't have any intention to lynch those people. You had three votes with no reasons behind them.

remember when Lycan said that I shouldn't be copy/pasting my reads from D1 (again, with no reasoning why I shouldn't do that if nothing has changed) and then proceeds to vote his two SRs from D1?

I explicitly said I was townreading you day 1. That's why I was happy with an NM lynch. Why do you assume I was?

what issue did you create? a stupid theory that no one is following based off of a fake-hammer thing that could just be a mistake?

How about the issue that you're freaking out that I revoted TLH? If you want him lynched why are you getting defensive? I see a vote on TLH but posts keep coming my way (outside your icky 471 that was

prompted

by TLH in 462). This is a bluff.

Play stupid games, earn stupid prizes.

I explicitly said I was townreading you day 1.

I get the impression from Hiraki's post 239 that they appeared to want to work with myself but didn't seem to care to do the same with NM or TLH. I think the triple vote is pretty dishonest here. Who exactly do you want to lynch today?

Very big town read. Very explicit and there's nothing implied.

continue to keep calling my posts icky/bad/etc. without explaining, it is definitely working (i guess?)

your post was shit because the only shade you've been putting on TLH is the shade you've been prompted by TLH to make. it's manufactured.

and yeah-right. i'm not scumhunting or anything. keep pushing your narrative.

here's the post i was talking about.

That post I promised

My original comment may not have been scum indicative but we had nothing to go with, and it was definitely strange, so I ran with it. I feel like

nobody really tried

to push me off this. Both GL and Hiraki questioned me, but I don't feel like either have tried to explicitly push me away. Tiershift isn't doing it either, his reasoning is that I'm talking about one thing. That's not a push, that's fishing for a read.

I'm discounting splitscum, and the wagon looks worse than offwagon.

Offwagon isn't being opportunistic with my argument. An offwagon team would only question and not push me away if they thought I would tunnel this. Which I think is ridiculous because I wasn't going to and I doubt any one here knows me better than I know myself. That's out.

Meanwhile the wagon shades/refuses to engage me. I'm happy lynching in TLH|NM. VOTE: NM

Instead of refuting your posts, I'll just drop this here from two people who are in high disagreement at the moment:

I have a hard time believing that Lycan is genuinely accusing Hiraki is coasting when his own posting on D2 has been naked votes and then very simplistic explanations of them

Why do you care about other peoples opinions if you're reading them as town? Reinforcing someone's read doesn't advance the game state. It doesn't get people to vote with you.

Tiershift and GL what say you?

Why Tiershift and not Nydus?

all that said I'd still like to lynch Lycan first and foremost

Titus confirms me as town. Who are you lynching instead?

What do you think of Hiraki/TLH interactions Nydus?

Tiershift and GL what say you?

Why Tiershift and not Nydus?

I wasn't talking to nydush

you said you liked hiraki/nydus in 416 and expanded that to one of hiraki/myself and one of gl/nydus. why do you care what tiershift has to say if he's barely in the game while you townread him?

I could theoretically hammer lycanfire right now.

fucking try it if you can come up with a read that isn't unnecessarily cryptic

[Michael22Omega]

gl/michael thoughts?

I think you might be scum rn

[Michael22Omega]

Also pretty sure TLH was scum

[Michael22Omega]

If not, well... good luck to us

We will probably lose on that case

[Michael22Omega]

I still have feeling he is scum because no way my day 1 reads( before i knew the flips) are all wrong

[Michael22Omega]

Also assuming he does flip scum
It's 5 players with 1 scum
We got another lynch today
If we mislynch and mafia makes a kill it'll go to P3 tomorrow
This is going to be interesting

[Michael22Omega]

Why is there no flip

[Michael22Omega]

Seriously this is fucked

[Michael22Omega]

I told you

[Michael22Omega]

True with Lion's logic actually
Can we vote no lynch or we just wait?

[Michael22Omega]

Nice
(from phone)
I have hiraki as lock town after yesterday
I still feel like lyca is town, but I'm not going to oppose his lynch rn
So pretty sure GL is the last scum
Will post more when I am back home

[Michael22Omega]

And than i realized this is the dead game.....

[Michael22Omega]

W/e let's just do it
VOTE: Lycanfire
If he is not scum than i'll do shit

[Michael22Omega]

Firey bullshit. Even if Lycan is always scum I don't deserve to be speedlynched when I'm trying to solve the game.

I would bet the game on Michael scum.

1) NK proves TLH was bussed
2) TLH had Nydus/GL in lynchpool but was only making posts to promote GL as his alt-wagon
3) Lack of coordination between the wagons TLH/Hiraki were promoting
4) Michael had been buddying me then simultaneously accused GL and TLH in post 543

You realize you were hammered?
I guess it means you were town?
Rip okay back to work

[Michael22Omega]

Honestly the only thing i did during night was ISOing TLH
Now i found their interactions with all of you guys, however i didn't like the interction with you specifically
Mainly since their first mention to you was in this post:

There's still a guy who hasn't posted

Now my thought process about it was:
He is happy scum due to day 1 lynch
Second mislynch seems to be nailed out for him
But in his eyes his 'scum buddy' lyca is inactive and might be in danger
So he starts distancing/building pre-posted interactions
Than reading more deeply into it i felt like all that was there was distancing
I also didn't feel like fighting the lyca lynch, since i know it's basically unpreventable and i don't believe in myself enough to do it

[Michael22Omega]

Alright nailed out here:

TLH talking to GL

Spoiler:

I think it's time to see a flip

VOTE: GL

Since GL flipped town

VOTE: Alisae

Never votes Tier despite scumreading him and is satisfied with limiting himself to defense; no real scumhunting initiative detected

VOTE: nydush

buddying + meta sucks

The way I saw it Nyd is overanalysing and just posting numbers that I thought didn't mean much.

I mean, he is so...

I'm eyerolling at the lamist math


UNVOTE: nydusher

VOTE: Martha
VOTE: Guiltylion

Also, can someone convince me of a pro-town reason to use multiple votes? More votes on more wagons makes it easier for scum to push mislynches.

Agreed in full with the above post. Single votes are better.

Sounds like you guys picked the wrong game.

UNVOTE: guiltylion

{nyd, lycan}
{Hiraki, TLH}
{N_M, Tier}
{Martha}

is where I am at

How did you come up with this?

How did that top tier of townread form

so I like {nydush, Hiraki, TLH} for town.

uh... I like nydush and Hiraki for scum

nydush/TLH what are your thoughts about Lycan?

I think him saying stuff like we're "coasting all game" is plain untrue no questions asked - I don't know if that makes him scum blatantly lying/not reading the game or if he's just clueless

leaning scum

Also think Hiraki is scum and is the one actually coasting

reminds me a lot of this post that scum!Dunn made in a Newbie we played together

Uh, I'm not controlling other people to make them not read the game when I'm scum if that's what you're trying to piece together. If somebody hasn't read the game I'll call them out on it, yes.

why didn't you just re-ISO and figure out what the question was yourself when Lycan first said "TLH hasn't answered my question"?

And why didn't you do it for me? I didn't want to/couldn't understand

Seriously GL how about you go into more detail on how 242 and 136 in that other game link together as something scummy?

I could theoretically hammer lycanfire right now.

Lycan I'd lynch TLH if you flip town, I think

Why ? ? ?

Tiershift and GL what say you?

TLH talking to Hiraki

Spoiler:

I feel very uneasy for NM - you can understand, right?

Why do you say this only after Tier's post though?

Why are you not voting for Not_Mafia?

I didn't say it was scummy, it's bad play

VOTE: Hiraki

Can you clarify why? Your ISO indicates that you have more of a SR on TLH.

So you haven't read the game, then

Why are you not voting for Not_Mafia?

I didn't say it was scummy, it's bad play

Can you establish the difference in this scenario?

Do you think N_M is not a competent player to make something look innocent while being scummy in character?

Do you believe a competent player can't make incompetent plays?

Why are you not voting for Not_Mafia?

I didn't say it was scummy, it's bad play

Can you establish the difference in this scenario?

Do you think N_M is not a competent player to make something look innocent while being scummy in character?

The difference is one is overall bad play that you reasonably wouldn't realize (Voting everybody)

Which doesn't need a vote

You're trying to bring his quickhammer into this which I wasn't commenting on

Can you explain this? I'm not understanding what you're saying.

bad play =/= scummy

voting everyone was a bad play (aside from the hammer)

I'm asking that you can at least acknowledge that N_M did it solely to look like it was bad play when he had a plan in mind.

We only have 1 lynch left today; I don't want it to be not_mafia so I'm not going to vote him.

I'm not convinced that a player of not_mafia's...

disposition

is particularly likely to have an elaborate thing going on, no. And it's partially other peoples faults for not announcing l-1, or even l-2 I think

What you're arguing now isn't what you were arguing when you first placed your vote on us

TierShift due to the fact that there's not enough content but that's purely subjective. I also have a good feeling about him.

Feel free to lynch me for association

but this is jut my feeling atm.

This seems awkward to say as town

1) Arguments and reads can change. You satisfied the prior argument and now I have a new one.

You have a new one because you need to push your narrative, not because you had a revelation.

2) Pushing the blame on other people for not announcing L-1 or L-2 is a very very lame defense.

Are you confused here? I'm not voting people for not announcing l-1 or l-2. I'm not defending not_mafia either, but I'm not voting him, and that's a good portion of why. If you think he should be lynched, you push on him. You're asking me to defend him, which I have no interest in doing.

3) 256 is purely subjective.

What's objective about it is that you asked to be lynched in order to reveal associations, and I'm obliged to follow your request.

so I like {nydush, Hiraki, TLH} for town.

uh... I like nydush and Hiraki for scum

Hiraki, can you explain your votes?

Ugh now going over this two, i am not sure now
It's kinda looks like TLH tried to spew GL as town at start? with this flip stuff, doesn't it?
Also there were some other stuff that pinged me, like the way he unvoted him

But than the start of hiraki interactions feels like something i always see coming from w/w, however if they are actually it's means they were going into hard bussing ( which i don't doubt because many people does it)

I guess i'm still leaning on GL

[Michael22Omega]

It's better not turn around Lyca is the scum here and i am doing it for nothing

[Michael22Omega]

@GuiltyLion

Why do you think ny3 died?

[Michael22Omega]

Lol me for trying yesterday
GG