Newbie 1779 | Spring | Endgame

[Darklyn]

The plot thickens...

[Darklyn]

If he's scummy and wants you gone, why wouldn't he simply unvote you and shoot you tonight since he knows you can't be protected?

^This is valid, especially in newbie psychology I believe. It takes a special kind of veteran to LYNCH a power role claim without CCing. By which, I mean, a gutsy player who is confident they can do so without consequence, without it backfiring on them.

I do not hold that opinion of lemonator, so I am more inclined to believe lemonator is town.

Which would further narrow down my lynch pool to, again:
mhsmith
DogWatch
oldwino.

I really think scum are in here and we should lynch within here.

VOTE: mhsmith0 is the best from that pool

[Huntress]

Vote Count 1.18

mhsmith0

(3): mastina, DogWatch, Darklyn

Darklyn

(1): RadiantCowbells

Not Voting

: Icy, mhsmith0, -Grey-, lemonater, oldwino
With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2017-03-15 06:05:00)

[oldwino]

At the extreme risk of appearing defensive and even OMGUS, Dog was pro Smith and appeared to be even pro me through post 485. Then in her next post, 504, she voted smith citing (only) a possible slip from him in 195, which I have read three times and I still cannot spot the slip she claims is there. She had no other logic to suspect Smith back then when she voted him. Today, she ISO'd Smith and finds that he defended me a few times (against Mastina) and cites that as evidence that Smith and I are the scum team. Grey also defended me a time or two, and so did she (Dog), I believe, a couple of times to Mastina. I think Dog's worried that she's on Mastina's short list and is starting to panic with D1 drawing to a close, whether she is scum or not.

Back in post 504, Dog said she leaned town on me, but maybe I was really a good scum actor - setting me and smith up as a scum team later, much later, today in post 741, after Mastina listed Smith, her (Dog), and me as her top scum suspects. Opportunistic, especially with her (Dog) on Mastina's likely scum list. Dog had never sided with Mastina on anything up until then that I can find, except her (Dog's) vote on Smith. Dog had also been more critical of Mastina and Grey, than of Smith, until she voted for Smith.

Maybe Dog is just sheeping Mastina, but after not believing anything she said most of the game? If I read all of Dog's posts, admittedly with a scumbias, she looks pretty scummy to me. And that's not just OMGUS because until she flipped on Smith with (I think) no good cited reason except post 195, she was highly suspicious of Mastina and Grey, not Smith. What happened to change her mind, if in fact she did change her mind? Much more likely she is scum and has been playing these angles all along. Now I am asking myself and looking around, who would be her most likely scum partner? RC? Lemon? Grey? Who has she distanced herself from the most, without causing them any real damage? And who has been distancing themself from Dog?

Of course, Smith could be scum and I could be wrong, but I am still null or leaning town on him especially now that he's got a wagon going that I think is weak (Mastina with no logic, Dog as I cited above, and now Dark - with no logic behind his vote either). I no longer think Mastina is scum, I know her logic about me is wrong (LAMIST), and I think her logic about Smith is wrong (not that Mastina has used logic to back up any of her suspicions, even those on Dog).

I'm not ready to vote Dog yet, because I wasn't that suspicious of her until today. I am still almost as suspicious of RC and Grey. And not sure about Lemon. Still doing more ISOing. But have to take a break now. Let's see what my last few posts stir up. Then I'll be back.

[DogWatch]

No time to respond entirely (I play on breaks at work) but I will say that my last post had nothing to do with my name being on mastina's short list. I know it looks like me trying to deflect attention, but I believe I'm widely town read here and I'm not worried about being lynched. We're running out of time so I tried to find a point of agreement with mastina, and when I looked at the rest of her short list, it dawned on me there might be a possible connection between you two. I wouldn't typically try to find scum buddies before at least one flip but a)time's running out, and b)I'm in this newbie game to make new plays and learn from the consequences. So, it's just what I saw.

Wino, would you rather no lynch than pick a side?

[lemonater]

Picking up with my analysis of 'everyone.'

Before Dog's post and my taking time to react, I was ISOing Lemo/Pieg/Ulti.

Originally I suspected Ulti because he wasn't posting and then voted Mastina to L1 without reason and without noting it was L1.
Then I thought he and Mastina were scum buddies, with his vote on her a distraction (since he did it incorrectly and it was never counted). But this clearly could have been newbie ignorance. I checked and Ulti dropped out of his next newbie game too. So I ended up null on Ulti.

Then Ulti opted out and Pieg came to play.
Pieg was obviously experienced, likes coaching, but I think got bored and left with the reason of 'making room for a true newbie." Overall, I think Pieg asked scum hunting questions, although he was not really active or invested in this game.

If he were scum, I think the game would have been more interesting and he would have stuck around (is asking to replace out AI???).

So, I was null leaning town on Pieg.

Lemon, I think, is asking good questions and invested in the game, although not as active as I would like. Not too much to go on. Active enough today not to be just lurking. So null to leaning town.

So, for me, the slot is null leaning town. But not leaning town by much.

I don't think dropping out is alignment indicative, otherwise more people would prob do it.

He said something like "tempted to drop out so a newbie can take my slot" aka me.

[oldwino]

I agree, clearly we need to lynch someone, even if it's a townie (which statistically it will be, even now) so we can learn from the flip. No hard feelings about your take on me. I'll sip some scotch and get over it.

I see your logic and in fact wondered about Smith's (and Grey's and your) defense of me earlier as looking like papa/momma bear behavior, and not even if I was their scum buddy but if they (you) saw me as townie lynchbait and wanted to look like they/you were a townie defending poor old naive lynchbait townie me. I think I noted before that in my first (and only) other game so far, an experienced, well-respected player defended a newbie who was playing so poorly I was sure he was scum (a few others were sure too). I didn't understand the experienced player's defense of the obvious scum newbie, but turns out the experienced player was scum pretending to protect/defend the naive, lynchbait townie. I stuck my neck out pressing against the other newbie and got lynched instead of him (he was a VT too). Scum got away with it and scum won on D2 without losing anyone. But in that case, the VT was playing really poorly and frankly and I couldn't believe, for any reason, a scum would defend him.

I may be playing like a newbie but not so poorly as to need protected, I thought. To be reasonably defended, yes, well deserved defense against not-so-strong attacks, which is what I thought Smith, Grey, and you have been doing, with GOOD townie reason. But maybe not. Maybe one of you is scum using me as cover.

Agreed we have to lynch someone but I won't help lynch Smith this time around unless we are at an absolute 'no lynch' spot at 8 AM my time tomorrow. I am > 50% sure he's town. Even if he is scum, he's adding a lot to the game, more than others I suspect like RC and Grey, so I'd rather lynch one of them, or Smith's partner if he is scum and we can identify him/her. I feel 100% town about Icy and Dark (and me), 90% sure of Mastina, 60% sure of Smith, 55% good about Lemon, and then less so about you, Grey, and RC, but not real scummy about any of you either. I will do more ISOing, see what others say, and help lynch whomever I feel scummiest about when I have to make a decision. I don't to want hammer if I don't have to because I hammered an innocent VT in my first game. I will if I have to, though, to get a lynch.

[RadiantCowbells]

Yeah I guess Oldwino could be scum? Idk. I townread him earlier though.

[-Grey-]

Okay so...

DogWatch
oldwino

Darklyn
Icy

lemonater
RadiantCowbells (SE) +

-Grey- (SE)

mhsmith0 (SE)
mastina (IC)

After striking out impossibles/least possibles FMPOV, that leaves three newbs and three experienced players.

I

want

to say that newbscum would be more likely to be standing out even on d1, but after 1777, I know that's just not so, at least from my perspective.

That said, I'm still confident that at least one of the Scum are experienced, because there has been a good amount of interaction between all of the newbies that I wouldn't expect to see if both the Scum were newb.

Of the experienced, I doubt RC would hesitate to push a wagon here if he was scum, because this town is begging to be led and scum!RC has the chops to do so. So, + mark for him.

mastina/Smith, I HIGHLY doubt are the Scum team, else they put on some world class theater, so at least one of the scum are newb.

I'd rather save the mastina/Smith dipole for d2, as choosing wrong will cost us a strong town, so it would be best to lynch their newb partner.

That leaves...

Dogwatch
oldwino
lemonater

I have pretty good feels about oldwino and Dogwatch, so let's go with

VOTE: lemonater

[mhsmith0]

fyi i didn't have time to check in here during lunch break, will do so after I get out of work, ballpark 5 hours from now.

[Darklyn]

Okay so...
That said, I'm still confident that at least one of the Scum are experienced, because there has been a good amount of interaction between all of the newbies that I wouldn't expect to see if both the Scum were newb.

I don't think Dogwatch hasn't interacted lemonater at all (or his predecessors)

[Darklyn]

has interacted*
I have been drinking okay

[-Grey-]

Gut (there's that word again) tells me there's little chance Mastina and Ulti are scumbuddies. If Mastina is scum, then she's coaching behind the scenes, and there's no way Ulti would come up with such a terrible vote (on his own scumbuddy no less) if they're conversing outside this thread.

I think Dogwatch townslipped here.

[-Grey-]

Quote fail, lol.

Anyway, it's the 292 link.

[oldwino]

Gut (there's that word again) tells me there's little chance Mastina and Ulti are scumbuddies. If Mastina is scum, then she's coaching behind the scenes, and there's no way Ulti would come up with such a terrible vote (on his own scumbuddy no less) if they're conversing outside this thread.

I think Dogwatch townslipped here.

Sorry, I don't understand what you mean by 'townslipped' here. Was she trying to sound town but sounded scum? Or inadvertently sounded like town without knowing it? And wouldn't that just be smart play? I don't pick up any slippage in either direction in post 292. Since I'm undecided about DW, understanding your point is important for me. And also, this was over a week ago and she's changed her stance on Mastina now (without giving any reason that I can find). I'm pretty equally suspicious, even though not strongly so, about both Lemonater and DW, and may have to vote one way or the other, so the best reasoning you can share, the better.

[-Grey-]

Her stance on mastina is pretty much irrelevant.

She was assuming scum was communicating, which they can only do during night phases.

Scum knows that.

[Darklyn]

Because it seems like she made a genuine mistake about coaching

Dogwatch is like the worst lynch for today, choose someone else pls

[-Grey-]

Third worst, but yeah.

[oldwino]

Got it, understand it. If she were scum, she'd have known scum couldn't be communicating during the day and probably wouldn't think to fake that lack of knowledge. Thanks.

[RadiantCowbells]

I am voting either Grey or Mhsmith0 today. I'm going to do my final reread soon and place my vote.

[mhsmith0]

Out of curiosity, what changned your position on me? The only time you discussed me before (admittedly a week ago) I was a TR of you. I'm also curious about your position on Grey: the only thing about him I saw from you was the back and forth followed by

This push on me feels really fake tbh.

it does feel like a mountain made out of a molehill, but what do you think scum!grey benefits from doing it? discrediting your influence maybe?

It feels like they might be trying to look genuine by jumping right into the action when there's nothing to jump into the action on.

PS Especially given that you just modded a game where I was town, I'm pretty curious how/why you think I'm different here.

[mhsmith0]

If people want to be around, and talk and stuff, I'll be here for a while. Given that both PRs are outed, and it's getting close to deadline, if I'm at L-1 when it gets really close I'll probably end up self-hammering (blah blah blah you shouldn't do that... except that it's STILL better than no lynching, and I'm not the IC so I don't need to tell people how they should normally play optimally).

It'll probably take a copule hours for me to do a solid re-read and get my thoughts down on page. So if nothing else, please no one hammer me for the next couple hours (I'm only at L-2, but no one else is any kind of wagon, so the fairly obviously likely outcome is that someone just hammers me at some point).

[mhsmith0]

PS if Huntress is cool with giving an extension, that'd be better in my book, though I don't know her policy on extensions. @Huntress: please weigh in?

[mhsmith0]

Of the experienced, I doubt RC would hesitate to push a wagon here if he was scum, because this town is begging to be led and scum!RC has the chops to do so. So, + mark for him.

FWIW I'm pretty sure this is like the opposite of a good read on RC, who is capable of leading as scum, but to my knowledge pretty consistently has stronger leadership tendencies as town (see: mastina's discussion about RC's early game - I've seen him obvtown a few times in various games, and I don't think I've seen anything of the sort this game). I don't feel like it's especially likely Grey/RC are scum together, but this is the sort of thing that makes me wonder if this is scum!Grey trying to pocket town!RC, town!Grey blowing a read on scum!RC, or if somehow a read this bad could actually be town-town.

PS I'm actually really weirded about by RC's generally low activity level and the near-total lack of push or shading on him. Like, if he's town, scum are PROBABLY going to have to mislynch him at some point given the existence of two town PRs, and yet there seems to be no real interest in getting ahead of the curve on that. I guess it could be explained by something like one scum trying to pocket him (Grey likelier than mastina) and maybe one scum just being an inactive, but it just seems odd to me. Day one and all that but it just seems like a weird game state *shrugs*

^note: given the total lack of anyone around, I'm just presuming that I'm going to be today's lynch unless I pick up something interesting and/or poeple actually show up for EOD. Which is pretty annoying but oh well i guess.

[mhsmith0]

Hey RC, have you ever been scum with a total lurker/nonparticipant scumbuddy? If there's an example of that (especially in a micro or newbie), a link would be cool. I'm trying to mull over what cut your WIM from this game so hard, and I'm wondering if it's credible that you're simply irritated at having a no-show as a scum buddy like ulti was.