Mini 1887 - Oddrole Mafia (Game over)

[Randomnamechange]

amount of conf town off of alban's lynch implies it was probably scum driven. would expect another scum on there.
also the similarity between mine and bork's voting patterns is weird. dont know what to make of it.
socrates is probs town for his vote on nm
pimhel could be scum looking to have two wagons pushing on town. socrates is probs town and bang is a townflip, and pimhel spent the most time on the dwlee wagon.

[McMenno]

uhm why are you coloring me green in vca

[Randomnamechange]

i thought you died

[Viridian]

pimhel could be scum looking to have two wagons pushing on town. [...] and pimhel spent the most time on the dwlee wagon.

PimHel was the first person to vote Dwlee before and after the daykill; one other person joined him each time. Because of that I don't get your point.

[Viridian]

I would like to claim that my slot's role changed at the start of Day 3, and that my former role was a one-shot town-only role that was unused. There's a few different mechanics that can result in role changes, but if someone else ended up with my old role, that ~mechanically confirms me as town I think.

[aronagrundy]

@viridian

so my issue with mcmenno is this:

I touched on this day 2 but I feel like he's been using setup spec to avoid actually speculating about the scumteam. Like can you point to any active scumhunting he's done since the end of day 2? The only role he seems to be looking for is the daykiller.

I disagree that his posts on momo have been productive. Momo wasn't even in danger of being lynched.

[Viridian]

Well, I mean, the fact that he was trying to check if momo was lying about softclaiming immortal when momo "wasn't even in danger of being lynched" doesn't seem problematic, and does seem like active scumhunting, even if mechanically based. I guess I can see if I squint why #381 making sense from the perspective of scum trying to be like "hey I helped!" Don't think I agree, but thanks for following up.

Anything else on your mind?

[aronagrundy]

I guess you can argue that, but other than that what else is there in his iso? His vote on bang came out of nowhere. I just don't see any town motivation in his posts.

[Randomnamechange]

pimhel could be scum looking to have two wagons pushing on town. [...] and pimhel spent the most time on the dwlee wagon.

PimHel was the first person to vote Dwlee before and after the daykill; one other person joined him each time. Because of that I don't get your point.

the two most likely wagons day 1 were bang and dwlee. scum dont tend to end up all on one wagon, so i think they might have hedged their bets and have some scum pushing dwlee and some pushing bang. pimhel is the only person who fits this MO on dwlee.

[Socrates]

Viridian isn't the daykiller? Shit! There goes my entire view of the gamestate!

@Alban
have you ever seen such an early claim before?

Vote Dwlee99

Just to re-confirm my awesome vote

P.S. Jaack deserves votes as well

Then this weak wagon can now disband. Your post was good for a wagon to get out of the RVS, but not to get this close to a lynch.

Two posts later, Jack was killed and the votecount reset. I thought he was breadcrumbing his role for a future dayvig claim.

If you go back, everytime I refer to the daykiller I had been specifically talking to PimHel, and his dayplay is a big part of why I was inclined to hope that he really was pro-town rather than just third party choosing to aggressively hunt the mafia, but I had to plan around the possibility that he was an SK that would kill me if he thought I was on to him and planning to out him, when I wanted him to continue shooting the mafia.

My plan going into today was to try to convince him that shooting the mafia was still in his best interest and that I had his back, and then if he did shoot as I wanted to and my proposed targets DID flip scum, I would immediately turn around and out him to the town and get him lynched.

Now I don't know what the fuck.

Doesn't affect my scum-read on Bork Bork, other than needing to now consider that they are something other than mafia.

Momo is going to have to explain how the fuck the sentence "I pretty much win regardless" comes from the mouth of a pro-town player.

Viridian is simply posting too much genuinely thoughtful volume to be scum, even if I don't take his soft-claim at face value.

RM is mechanically town, as Viridian said.

I would like to see Titus vote, and I don't want her to hammer.

Viridian, if you would like me to respond directly to your analysis of my play beyond what I have outlined here, I will be happy to later.

[momo]

@Mod: can I replace out. Thought odd role would be cool but not really feeling this game.

[McMenno]

@viridian

so my issue with mcmenno is this:

I touched on this day 2 but I feel like he's been using setup spec to avoid actually speculating about the scumteam. Like can you point to any active scumhunting he's done since the end of day 2? The only role he seems to be looking for is the daykiller.

I disagree that his posts on momo have been productive. Momo wasn't even in danger of being lynched.

this is a very mechanics oriented game, therefore my play is mechanics oriented. don't like it? try to lynch me... (hint: you won't be able to)

bork bork seems obvious scum to me. his iso is literally pushing the alban wagon, throwing shade based on baseless setup spec and attack me for a massclaim. lynch asap

aronagrundy likely scum as well. very underwhelming iso, at least has some effort put into it unlike bork bork's though. should die at one point or another.

pranadevil/titus... I quite liked prana but titus, I'm just not feeling it. I do believe that she's tha daykiller and has been goo'd tonight.

I actually was kind of okay with all alone? but then he replaced out. pimhel was just bad, and viridian has some redeeming of that slot to do. although he's doing stuff and he's working with me and that's good enough for now

socrates is just doing some goodposting. big fan of his early on claim, though I guess he could be mafia cheerleader, or just roleblocker, a possibility that's certainly crossed my mind more than once.

rando is just goodposting above his normal standards, dare I say. though I'm struggling what makes him "confirmed town"

momo is practically confirmed, and there's a very low chance he's not just town, as lack of extra kills suggest the absence of a serial killer. though I must say that his antitown attitude was getting on my nerves. looking forward to hearing from the replacement

[Socrates]

Looking at the votecount, this almost feels like the classic townies on one wagon, scum on the other, stalemate until whoever breaks first.

Or Titus can throw out of vote.

I'm temped to say I'd be down for a Grundy wagon if Bork is going nowhere, but I feel like I always end up regretting that kind of move.

[Socrates]

See: Day 1.

[Socrates]

though I'm struggling what makes him "confirmed town"

Green goo is town only, according to the role list. RM claimed to be the one who goo'd dwlee night 1. Since it was night one, he has to be the original, thus he must be the town Green goo, even if there now exist anti-town green goo's.

[Socrates]

It just occured to me that Dwlee might have goo'd as well as Rando's, so I guess I can't assume that the person Rando Goo'd is the serial killer.

Bah.

Back to the drawing board a third time.

[Viridian]

As previously stated, I probably would be willing to move my vote but it's certainly not happening while Bork is still V/LA. IIRC he comes back tomorrow.

RM softclaimed possibly causing a slew of different things. On the whole those things are more likely to be caused by town/harmless 3P than by mafia/harmful 3P, but I feel like it would be anti-town for me to elaborate on that until he elaborates further on those things himself. If he is scum, I'm not exactly interested in highlighting to him what kind of answers I'd prefer!

I guess re:Socrates, I think his claim makes him likely to be exactly {town/mafia} and his behavior makes him likely to be exactly {town/3P} which probably makes him just town but I still struggle to feel like I fully understand where he's coming form. A more in-depth response to my earlier post would be welcome.

I wish I knew whether my role change was caused by a setup shuffle (which is probably best confirmed by someone claiming that they ended up with my old role, which is ~1/2 the reason I claimed), or by mutation/evolution/exchanging.

[Socrates]

And why haven't I been goo'd yet? Haven't we all agreed that my role is overall negative utility? We can solve that problem without killing me.

[Viridian]

It's possible that Dwlee was mutated into Grey Goo by a Mad Scientist (or something similar) instead of there actually having been an original Grey Goo. This could explain my role change too.

That would be a bit weird though.

[Socrates]

I guess re:Socrates, I think his claim makes him likely to be exactly {town/mafia} and his behavior makes him likely to be exactly {town/3P} which probably makes him just town but I still struggle to feel like I fully understand where he's coming form. A more in-depth response to my earlier post would be welcome.

'kay

13. Socrates

Most of my crack theories about this game revolve around him. Him turning on his townread of the D1 lynch was disappointing. Him falling off thereafter and not reacting at all to Not_Mafia's death creeped me out. There's times when I feel like I'm just not parsing his view of the game state/his emotional trajectory. I suspect these things may be more "having complex internal reactions to this game bc actually trying to solve the game" indicative than scum indicative, but for the moment I'm not willing to commit to a read here.

I can't really sugar coat this: I hammered Alban out of fairly selfish motivations. I was fed up with the town not listening to me (Dwlee, the only player who even responded to my vote on Not_Mafia, literally could not follow my train of thought), the alban wagon was filled with dead fish that seemingly weren't interested in posting at all, let alone moving their votes, and in the moment I had conceded to Titus that the alban wagon spiraling out of control was not truly alignment indicative*

One thing I've always felt that gets lost for replacements is a sense for the actual pace of posting as the game is live. It's one thing to look at timestamps and observe a 48 hour period where the only people talking were me and Dwlee, it's another thing entirely to have to live that reality.

Then we had ANOTHER round of replacements, and at that point I had written this game off entirely, so I just said 'fuck it' and hammered because I wanted to move the game forward and, in all honesty, just wanted to see my read of the gamestate validated. I had stopped thinking about winning the game.

And lo, Alban was town and Not_Mafia flipped scum. My read that the mafia magnetized to the easiest wagon AFTER my claim was, in fact, validated. But I couldn't exactly brag about this, what with being the one to hammer Alban and not having a hand in Not_Mafia's actual death. And there really wasn't much to say about Not_Mafia's flip itself; he was the most obvious scum that ever scummed. So I didn't say much in my first post, and then Dwlee accidentally hammered and that's it for day 2.

And then I've already outlined my thought process going into today earlier this morning.

Any other questions?

*In retrospect and sobriety, I have to go back and say that while this might have been true of the initial wagon, the way everyone piled BACK on the wagon a second time after the daykill should have been very telling. Any bussing scum would have taken the opportunity to let the wagon on their buddy die.

[Socrates]

I forgot that BorkBork was V/LA. I thought he was just lurking.

Forget my impatience.

[Viridian]

I'm surprised you're so impatient considering your join date!

And ya that does help. I didn't actually realize D2 was only two days long and so when isoing you I was like wtf @ that fall off after your view of the game being confirmed.

[Viridian]

Hey McMenno when did you start liking Prana?

[Börk Börk]

I'm town. Unvote me.

Seriously, lynch McMenno or randomidget. If either flips town then you're welcome to lynch me.

[McMenno]

Hey McMenno when did you start liking Prana?

when he posted the posts

I'm town. Unvote me.

Seriously, lynch McMenno or randomidget. If either flips town then you're welcome to lynch me.

truly, a phenomenal defense

(translation: lynch this please)