The Importance of Transparency, Cooperation & Effort as Town
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivorthey (pl.)
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivorthey (pl.)
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People disagree with you, you are not right and they are not wrongIn post 128, wgeurts wrote:
This is literally the core of the game.In post 125, RadiantCowbells wrote:My way, no one wins the game for being better at arguing or rhetoric.
For me mafia is a game of psychology, of trying to get into people's heads. But using more empirical processes isn't wrong, and even I use them sometimes--they're just different ways to play the game.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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but skilled players don't fool guts?In post 118, RadiantCowbells wrote:
There's more to the game than analyzing reads and VCA and I think that those are in many ways the least useful part of the game because skilled players fool them easily.In post 117, wgeurts wrote:
Rationally speaking if you want to lynch someone it's best to explain why. Else this game would simply be a bunch of random votes. Without explanation there wouldn't be scum-hunting and town reads to form off content, only VCA.In post 116, RadiantCowbells wrote:Cases matter because the 'current site meta' (meant in a loose sense) requires you to post reasons to lynch people. In a universe where it didn't I would never post them.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivorthey (pl.)
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Town's main job is not to look town, town's main job is to find scum. Therefore, more of the responsibility than not lies on the mislynchers.In post 131, wgeurts wrote:Also i completely disagree that the responsibility of a mislynch wholly lies on those pursuing it. It's a mix, and if someone isn't actually playing properly the fault can very much be mostly theirs. I've never said we should only work with cases, ideally everyone would be doing so. That's not the case right now, currently we have to damage control those not pulling their weight. That doesn't mean we should just accept that fact, the contrary it's true: we should strive for the ideal.-
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivorthey (pl.)
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Well how would you go about fooling a gut of a player you don't know?In post 152, Psyche wrote:
but skilled players don't fool guts?In post 118, RadiantCowbells wrote:
There's more to the game than analyzing reads and VCA and I think that those are in many ways the least useful part of the game because skilled players fool them easily.In post 117, wgeurts wrote:
Rationally speaking if you want to lynch someone it's best to explain why. Else this game would simply be a bunch of random votes. Without explanation there wouldn't be scum-hunting and town reads to form off content, only VCA.In post 116, RadiantCowbells wrote:Cases matter because the 'current site meta' (meant in a loose sense) requires you to post reasons to lynch people. In a universe where it didn't I would never post them.
It's not impossible, but it's a lot harder.-
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Accountant Jack of All Trades
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If I can't find the way, why should I have any reason to trust the read? Isn't it akin to a suspicious stranger knocking on my door?In post 148, Infinity 324 wrote:
Well obviously there's some way it happens. And sometimes you can find that way. But sometimes you can't, and that doesn't mean you throw the read in the trash.In post 106, Accountant wrote:First of all, Infinity, how do you think a gut read forms? I mean on a cognitive level, how does your brain send the gut signals to you?There's nothing that says that a fake can't beat the real thing.
You must not imagine that for beings like you and us there can be laughter. The low men laugh, and we envy them. But for us, the higher ones, there is no laughter, only an unending vigil, purely serious, stretching on into the night.-
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivor
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Here's the way I see it.In post 156, Infinity 324 wrote:If your gut reads have been accurate in the past, then yeah you have a reason to trust the read. If they haven't, you don't.
Your mind is your property. There's theoretically nothing that you should be unable to uncover the root of inside your mind, because, y'know, it's your mind. In this manner, there should be no such thing as an unexplainable gut read. All gut reads should be able to be transformed into accurate, explained reads, which are better beacuse more people will follow you.There's nothing that says that a fake can't beat the real thing.
You must not imagine that for beings like you and us there can be laughter. The low men laugh, and we envy them. But for us, the higher ones, there is no laughter, only an unending vigil, purely serious, stretching on into the night.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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there's nothing to gut reads
there is essentially nothing to them, and people only have faith in them because they have a memory bias, keeping in mind times their gut reads were successful and either forgetting or blaming others for gut reads that weren't; they have self-serving biases, diagnosticity biases, and so forth
just like they take their intuition for granted in a random game, they also take for granted their intuitions about their play across many games
loads of scientific studies, loads, have found that most people are confident in their ability to tell if others are lying; in fact, only a few people out of a thousand are "wizards", reliably good at lie detection, many fewer than the number of people who take their gut reads seriously on this site
the thing about gut reads, the reason it's not true that any one person's gut reads aredirectionallydifferent from another persons, is that there isn't really any way to sharpen them
however good your gut reads are, that's how good they'll always be
a basic conclusion of learning theory is that in general skill improvement only comes through deliberate practice
deliberate practice is a highly structured activity engaged in with the specific goal of improving performance; it's different from work, play and simple repetition of a task because it's very introspective, constantly attentive to the relationship between cognitive/psychomotor activities and results
since gut reads are just uncritical summations of sentiment about a player, by definition drawn upon with naivete about how the reads arose, they necessarily exclude the possibility of deliberate practice, and thus of improvement at the game more broadly, except to the extent that gut reads aren't universally relied on
similarly, it's just as easy to fool the gut of a player you don't know as it is to fool that of a player you do
since gut reads by definition don't improve with experience, they're hardly everdirectionallydifferent between different people
they might be pinged by different kinds of posts, but on average they're still about the same in accuracy
i don't have any illusions that most case-based play is terrible
after all, i've spent a lot of time finding that a lot of the rationales people use for lynching scum are statistically mediocre
but the difference between terrible case-based play and gut-based play is that people who stick to the latter are incorrigible:
they have no path to self-improvement besides random chanceYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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most people who think their gut reads are more accurate than not have deceived themselvesIn post 156, Infinity 324 wrote:If your gut reads have been accurate in the past, then yeah you have a reason to trust the read. If they haven't, you don't.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivorthey (pl.)
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Theoretically, I agree with you. But sometimes it's impractically difficult to do that.In post 157, Accountant wrote:
Here's the way I see it.In post 156, Infinity 324 wrote:If your gut reads have been accurate in the past, then yeah you have a reason to trust the read. If they haven't, you don't.
Your mind is your property. There's theoretically nothing that you should be unable to uncover the root of inside your mind, because, y'know, it's your mind. In this manner, there should be no such thing as an unexplainable gut read. All gut reads should be able to be transformed into accurate, explained reads, which are better beacuse more people will follow you.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivorthey (pl.)
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I disagree strongly that gut reads don't improve with experience. The way your intuition operates is based off of past experiences.
I'm not denying that some people overestimate the strength of their gut, or (especially) take premature gut reads and pretend they're super confident reads
But I think the average person's gut is better than random.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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You think you know how your intuition operates? That goes against a lot of what you've already said in the thread.In post 162, Infinity 324 wrote:I disagree strongly that gut reads don't improve with experience. The way your intuition operates is based off of past experiences.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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6%In post 162, Infinity 324 wrote:But I think the average person's gut is better than random.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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I could probably generate a game to test how close the actual efficacy of your reads are to what you think they are.
Furthermore, you could probably play the game repeatedly to see if your reads improve at the rate you think they do.
Under what conditions do you think a working gut read is applied? Does it require close reading of a post, or does it only need skimming? Of an iso or of a whole game?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivorthey (pl.)
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Well on a general level, yes. But in each specific case, not necessarily.In post 163, Psyche wrote:
You think you know how your intuition operates? That goes against a lot of what you've already said in the thread.In post 162, Infinity 324 wrote:I disagree strongly that gut reads don't improve with experience. The way your intuition operates is based off of past experiences.
Also I'm not saying I always have gut reads I can't explain. But sometimes that situation pops up, and in that situation I don't discount my gut read.-
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivorthey (pl.)
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It really depends. What I tend to do is just check my gut periodically when reading people's posts. Sometimes I'll have a strong gut reaction, sometimes a weak gut reaction and sometimes no reaction. I also have to take into account the number of posts I read by each player and also how well I know that player's meta. Rarely, I'll get gut reads on people within their first few posts; usually I need a significant sample, and sometimes even that won't give me anything.In post 165, Psyche wrote:I could probably generate a game to test how close the actual efficacy of your reads are to what you think they are.
Furthermore, you could probably play the game repeatedly to see if your reads improve at the rate you think they do.
Under what conditions do you think a working gut read is applied? Does it require close reading of a post, or does it only need skimming? Of an iso or of a whole game?
It's probably different for each player though.-
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Accountant Jack of All Trades
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You're positing that gut reads happen in the part of the brain that isn't consciously inspectable?In post 161, Psyche wrote:Accountant's wrong, theoretically. Most of what happens in the brain, especially how things happen in the brain, aren't consciously inspectable. That's, uh, why introspectionism is no longer a thing in psych or neuro.There's nothing that says that a fake can't beat the real thing.
You must not imagine that for beings like you and us there can be laughter. The low men laugh, and we envy them. But for us, the higher ones, there is no laughter, only an unending vigil, purely serious, stretching on into the night.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Accountant Jack of All Trades
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Oh. I didnt know thatThere's nothing that says that a fake can't beat the real thing.
You must not imagine that for beings like you and us there can be laughter. The low men laugh, and we envy them. But for us, the higher ones, there is no laughter, only an unending vigil, purely serious, stretching on into the night.-
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivor
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Gut reads are everything and the only true way of scumhunting.Fluffy fluffy~~~ |"READING KATSUKI IS LIKE SOME SORT OF POSTMODERN ARTFORM"- GreyICE
Katsuki is by far more absurdly beautiful than Fate. (hai parama)
Katsuki's Madness coming to you shortly: Nov, 2011!
CupcakeMafiaIIcoming to you summer 2011! ~ Pre-ins: 11/13-
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Postie Any/allJack of All TradesAny/all
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There are differentkindsof gutreads, Psyche. There's nebulous "hunches" (and if we were talking only about these I would agree with everything you've said), and then there's the kind of gut feelings that can be categorised and compared.
If you gave me bunch of ISOs and asked me to tell you aboutallthe gutreads I got on them, I would expect my accuracy to be utter trash. If you asked me to just record the gutreads I was confident meant something? Completely different story.Discourse is fleeting, but junk mail is forever.-
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivorthey (pl.)
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