Newbie 1779 | Spring | Endgame

[Icy]

Welcome to the game TB

[Icy]

alright, i'll switch it... i do think we learn more from an alisae flip

VOTE: alisae

I know you earlier posted RG was town because of post 12. When, or what caused you to switch your read on this slot?

[ThinkBig]

Welcome to the game TB

Thank you

[Icy]

I've tried to figure out the logic of how many mislynches, or no lynches, we can afford and still possibly win. But this is the first time I've tried to figure this out and I haven't seen any explanations of it anywhere else. SO, anyone and everyone, please comment on this logic. This is all predicated on Dark, Icy, and me being town, which from my POV is the only way I can look at it now, even though I mostly trust Dog to be town and know some of you don't trust me and scum will want to discredit me if this logic is correct.

D2 we lynch Alisae (or anyone, I think) who flips town. 7 left, 5 and 2.
N2 scum kills Dark (or Icy, doesn't matter). 6 left, 4 and 2

D3 if we mislynch, no matter whom, Grey most likely will be the vote, and he flips town, 5 will be left, 3 T and 2S. Game over because
N3 scum kills any other townie and there are only 4 left, 2T and 2S and no way for town to lynch on D4 so game over after the D3 mislynch.

BUT if we follow this scenario and instead of lynching anyone on D3, with 6 left, and vote NO LYNCH, which the 4 remaining townies can do, then we are still at 4 and 2 going into N4.
N4 scum kills a townie, 5 left, 3T and 2S.

On D5 we still have a chance to lynch scum and win. Right?

If so, if my logic is correct, I say we lynch Alisae today (or anyone except Icy, Dark, or me, really) and then vote No Lynch on D3. All 4 townies vote No Lynch, the two scum are exposed. Of course, I think, one scum could vote NL and one townie would be left not voting along with the other scum and we're guessing on D5, but isn't that better than two mislynches? Or is my logic wrong?

Of course if we are right about Alisae, we're in better shape. And if Icy didn't lose her BP on N1, we're in better shape. And if Dark tracks the scum killer and doesn't get killed himself N2, we're in better shape.

What do you all think?

WOE.....You say you think the scum team is Allisae/TB, but in your only d2 scenario the person we lynch is TOWN!!! I don't for one minute believe Alisae and TB are both scum.
It also bothers me a LOT that you are worried about our best course of action on day 3.

[Alisae]

Hey TB sorry you rolled scum.

[ThinkBig]

Too bad I am town

[Alisae]

dw it's okay if everything you say sounds fake you're scum.

[ThinkBig]

I see Alisae is at L-2. What is the case on Alisae?

[Alisae]

Nope I'm on L-1 and it's that I pushed scum!Grey and PoE'd mastina as scum.

[ThinkBig]

It takes 5 to lynch. There are two votes as of the last vote count + one more. That puts you at 3 votes. 3/5 is L-2, not L-1

Vote Count 2.04

-Grey-

(2): Alisae, oldwino

Alisae

(2): mastina, Darklyn

lemonater

(1): Dogwatch

Not Voting

: Icy, lemonater, -Grey-
With 8 alive, it's 5 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2017-03-31 13:00:00)

alright, i'll switch it... i do think we learn more from an alisae flip

VOTE: alisae

[Alisae]

Oh wait there's 8 players yeah you're right because they shot icy lmao.

[Icy]

I see Alisae is at L-2. What is the case on Alisae?

I'll give you my case on her. She replaced RC. If you read nightfall you will see she is doing what RC said he would do today. I don't think the scum team is Mastina/Grey. On day one however I did believe one or the other was. It also seems the town has the most to learn from a Alisae lynch.

[PenguinPower]

ChrisOrmie replaces lemonater effective immediately.

[ThinkBig]

Welcome Christ

[PenguinPower]

mastina is being prodded

[Alisae]

Chris I'm town sheep me.

[Darklyn]

lulz

[PenguinPower]

I don't understand why I was prodded when I have previously indicated to the moderator that I am V/LA over the weekends and my last post was on Saturday (so naturally that means I wasn't going to be around yesterday or most of today), but since the message was apparently not communicated clearly enough and I was given a prod anyway, it should be noted that I have received the prod but am unable to give content immediately. I will give content tomorrow. (As in, Tuesday.)

Please PM questions only the mod can answer to the mod instead of posting in game.

-PenguinMod

[ChrisOrmie]

Hey all, I'm Chris. I'm experienced off site, only my third game here however so still getting to grips with some of the terms and whatnot. I have health issues which mean sometimes I miss work and have to do a lot of overtime to catch up at other points, so my activity will vary day-to-day but once in a game I rarely think I'd need to V/LA or replace out. This is all NAI, but just a get-to-know and hi-there hello! o/

I've skimmed the thread and plan on reading through more completely late today (probably skipping work due to illness today). I see Smith got lynched d1, then no nk. Then it seems it's wagons on Ali/Grey for today. Anyone got bullet points for me to look at the important stuff in detail, if not I'll just read through the thread in order and then ISO Grey/Ali to see what I can see on the wagons. Just came out of a game with Ali so hoping that might help read him quickly this game.

Chris I'm town sheep me.

Hey Ali! I'll consider it after I get caught up - if I think you're not scum.
Who are your top reads right now? Why did your wagon form?

[oldwino]

I've tried to figure out the logic of how many mislynches, or no lynches, we can afford and still possibly win. But this is the first time I've tried to figure this out and I haven't seen any explanations of it anywhere else. SO, anyone and everyone, please comment on this logic. This is all predicated on Dark, Icy, and me being town, which from my POV is the only way I can look at it now, even though I mostly trust Dog to be town and know some of you don't trust me and scum will want to discredit me if this logic is correct.

D2 we lynch Alisae (or anyone, I think) who flips town. 7 left, 5 and 2.
N2 scum kills Dark (or Icy, doesn't matter). 6 left, 4 and 2

D3 if we mislynch, no matter whom, Grey most likely will be the vote, and he flips town, 5 will be left, 3 T and 2S. Game over because
N3 scum kills any other townie and there are only 4 left, 2T and 2S and no way for town to lynch on D4 so game over after the D3 mislynch.

BUT if we follow this scenario and instead of lynching anyone on D3, with 6 left, and vote NO LYNCH, which the 4 remaining townies can do, then we are still at 4 and 2 going into N4.
N4 scum kills a townie, 5 left, 3T and 2S.

On D5 we still have a chance to lynch scum and win. Right?

If so, if my logic is correct, I say we lynch Alisae today (or anyone except Icy, Dark, or me, really) and then vote No Lynch on D3. All 4 townies vote No Lynch, the two scum are exposed. Of course, I think, one scum could vote NL and one townie would be left not voting along with the other scum and we're guessing on D5, but isn't that better than two mislynches? Or is my logic wrong?

Of course if we are right about Alisae, we're in better shape. And if Icy didn't lose her BP on N1, we're in better shape. And if Dark tracks the scum killer and doesn't get killed himself N2, we're in better shape.

What do you all think?

WOE.....You say you think the scum team is Allisae/TB, but in your only d2 scenario the person we lynch is TOWN!!! I don't for one minute believe Alisae and TB are both scum.
It also bothers me a LOT that you are worried about our best course of action on day 3.

What is WOE? Woah? Stop?

I'm not 'worried' about our action on D3, I was plotting out how many mislynches/no lynches we can afford before all is lost. The worst case scenario. Do you, or anyone, see fault in that logic? And why does thinking ahead like that bother you?

I've explained my rationale several times for the original RC/Grey scum team, now inherited by Ali and TB. No one has responded to that logic, no one really countering it except saying they don't think RC and Grey were scum partners. I still think that's a likely team, but also said I've got close scum reads on Mastina and Lemon (ChrisO) as well. So I'm sticking with Grey/RC (where my original suspicions come from) - now Alisae/TB because they inherited those slots - as my most likely scum team- but I'm also certainly think it could be any two of the four I suspect, with Dog as an outside 5th choice. I already said I'd vote for Ali after we hear from the two new replacements, but don't want to take Ali to L1 until we're all more sure she's our first choice and we give the replacements a chance to read, think, and speak.

I only worked out the logic if we mislynch on D2, a worst case scenario. If we lynch scum on D2, and/or Dark successfully tracks scum overnight, and/or Icy didn't get shot N1, then we have a better chance of winning, especially IF Ali flips scum, which I hope she does.

[DogWatch]

That last sentence makes it sound like you know Ali is going to be the lynch.

[oldwino]

That's the way we're headed, with your vote taking her to L2 and my commitment to change my vote from Grey to Ali if that's the consensus of the group, AFTER we hear more from the new replacements and if their posts etc. don't change a mind (and vote) or two. No hurry, though.

[Alisae]

Hey Ali! I'll consider it after I get caught up - if I think you're not scum.
Who are your top reads right now? Why did your wagon form?

Grey is scum, mastina is scum by PoE.
As for my wagon forming tbh idunno? Scum need a counterwagon I guess.
Also RC put me in a tough position and I can tell he wanted to replace out because this game is intolerable.
Deathtunnels left and right man.

[Alisae]

That last sentence makes it sound like you know Ali is going to be the lynch.

Nothing really scummy about this.
Even I know my lynch is envitable but I still know I'm trying to get scum lynched.

[PenguinPower]