Mini 549 (Tarhalindur Mostly Mountainous) - Game Over

[Nyktorion]

Vote: Jester

for not having confirmed yet

[Nyktorion]

Oh, and

FOS: Earwig

for OMGUS-FOSing Ectomancer and beating me to voting Jester

[Nyktorion]

Unvote, Vote: Rosso Carne

for trying to look active without adding content.

[Nyktorion]

Unvote, Vote: Rosso Carne

for trying to look active without adding content.

Although I appreciate the support on voting off the Nazi, I have a large problem with your ''reason''.

First -- ''Trying to look active'' makes no sense. One is either active or not active. There is no such thing as ''looking active.''

Second -- It's early in the game, how is someone supposed to add content this early when it's barely started?

Overall -- Your reason for voting RC is completely invalid. The accusation is a huge stretch and I'm unsure at this moment whether I consider this a scumtell or not.

Well, it is still possible to have many posts without really saying much (or in other words: to have a good difference between the number of posts and the number of relevant posts). And while you are right that my accusation might be miniscule in a progressed game, I think it is still a good reason for a vote considering the current ((semi-)random) state of the game, and the other possible reasons to vote for someone currently.

However, I find it quite interesting how you fiercely you are rushing towards Rosso's defence in the face of my rather semi-random accusation. Might be a slight first tell that you both have the same alignment, and that you know about that.

[Nyktorion]

It seems that Rosso's "spammyness" and Blackberry's seem to be rather related to their general playstyle, so I am done with that avenue of information search for now.

Unvote

Right now, I am getting curious about ryan's small post. You say that there are many nonrandom things going on, but you don't have any nonrandom opinion or vote yet? This sounds a bit like trying to stay below the radar to me.

Vote:ryan

Mod

, I think that Blackberry should have three votes listed in the fifth vote count, since all three people who are listed besides Blackberry were voting for him at that time.

So it should. Fixed. -Tar

[Nyktorion]

I still argue there is no such thing as "looking active," you are either active or not action. Posting content or not posting content. Being active and posting content are two unrelated concepts that do not intertwine.

As Ecto already pointed out, we should not waste too much effort just arguing about the semantics of certain words. But to put it into your definition, I mean somebody who is active, but does not post content when I call someone "looking active".

JESTER -- Ooo, interesting. It sounds somewhat clever, but beyond that I think it'd be an idiotic strategy. Attempting to communicate IN-GAME is completely stupid.

I don't think that we should assume that scum would never attempt in-game communication. Of course, colors and font sizes are not a really subtle way of doing this, but taking the "stupidity" of the strategy as a reason to convince us that it is not used is still very WIFOMish. FOr my part, I'll keep my eyes open for connections between your colors and events during this day.

[Nyktorion]

Finally I think that we might have a serial killer amongst us, making this game MOSTLY mountainuous (or those of you who are more knowledgeable than I, is there a setup name for vanillas, scums and a SK?). There are quite a few players, myself included, keeping a really low profile.

You are right, we have quite a few people staying under the radar (Tamuz, ryan, Dean Harper, yourself), which also makes it a bit harder to choose a specific one to pressure. However, your last post stands out quite a bit in that regard: you suggest the existence of an SK, and in the same breath, you announce that you are keeping a very low profile yourself. Since your keeping-a-low-profile seems to be intentional, this makes me belief that you might be one of the scums, or the SK.

Unvote, Vote: Johoohoo

Btw: Rosso Carne, you promised to shake things up in your post #53, and said you wanted to read up in post #73. I would still be very eager to see the results of those things

[Nyktorion]

Some comments while I am waiting for Johoohoo to respond to my last post: I can't really sympathize with the attacks against Blackberry that are based on his secret theory. I agree with Extomancer post #132 on that subject. The aspect of Blackberry that I find much more interesting is his possible connection to Rosso Carne - SlySly's hint in #122 brought this back to my attention. Judging the two guys in this couple individually, I would say that RC is the currently scummier one, considering that he has still said next to nothing with quite a few posts, and his promise to say some very interesting things until last tuesday. Blackberry is still drawing a lot of my attention with his style of posting, but that can still be attributed to aggressive playstyle in my opinion.

unFOS: Earwig, FOS: Rosso Carne

[Nyktorion]

Yes I've been keeping a low profile intentionally. I am trying not to post uninteresting comments in a game with this many players. I want my posts to bring up something noone has commented on yet or give my arguments in a given situation (as I believe my posts so far have been, except for my first random vote that is). You can trust me on posting when I react to something I find noticeable, and you can trust me on following the game closely. Also, do bear in mind that the one who posts the mosts isn't townie by proxy (and vice versa).

Okay, but then there remains one question: if we consider your explanation as a justification for keeping a low profile, why do you mention the possible existence of an additional anti-town role (SK) and the number of low-profile-keepers in the same breath, then? Couldn't the other low-profile-keepers also just be using your style of playing, then?

[Nyktorion]

Since your keeping-a-low-profile seems to be intentional, this makes me belief that you might be one of the scums, or the SK.

This is stretching things quite a lot, don't you think?

You think so? When I first read Johoohoo's post, I thought that his statements about the SK and the low-profile-players were related. Going from that point, I believe that my accusation is not that far away.

That is both possible and probable (since we're twelve I guess there are no more than three mafias, and if there is an SK there might be as few as two scums). Though, I think my posts have added, in my view valuable, content most of the time, whereas a few other low profile players only marked their presence with a post.

Since the relation between the statements does not seem to exist as much as I thought, I'll

Unvote: Johoohoo

. However, Johoohoo, keep in mind: as Blackberry also said, surviving is not the primary goal in this game, but hunting scum is (though the former can of course be helpful in achieving the latter).

The next one on my list would be Rosso Carne again, for reasons already mentioned. Since they are still valid up to now, and I am getting a hard time to still explain them by just playstyle,

unFOS: Rosso Carne, Vote: Rosso Carne

. An additional interesting question would be why you voted Earwig without mentioning any scummy things about him so far. (the same question of course also goes to Tamuz for post #54)

[Nyktorion]

Tagalong query, but you neglect to address Tamuz's unexplained vote as well? Are you really curious about why people are voting for Earwig? (Yes, I realize Nyktorian did not address it either, but I'm interested in your response.) What stood out for me was that you came to Tamuz' defense in post 37 by tossing an fos on me for attacking him early (and moving us out of the random stage), and now you are omitting him from a query involving unexplained votes on Earwig. Oversight?

I did not forget Tamuz' vote for Earwig, in fact I mentioned it in my post #151. However, since it was the smallest of my points against RC, I did not elaborate on that so much - and that's also why I am pressing against RC at the moment, and not against Tamuz.

ok dont fluff it, im not semi-lurking

im just plain lurking.

truth is this game is nowhere because all ive seen is people going after homo because of his untold (and obvious metagame) theory.

Blackberry's theory is far from all that I have seen going on in this game so far - I guess you are just not looking closely enough. However, I do share the belief that the focus on this theory has been stronger in the last few pages than it deserves to be.

That being said, I'm currently happy with my vote.

[Nyktorion]

Sounds to me as a lot of old arguments are only spinning in circles right now. Seems as if the town has five lynch candidates:

Rosso - The condescending and uninformative poster
Blackberry - The flamboyant poster
Earwig - The amnesiac poster
Tamuz - The lurking non-poster
thenextepisode - The (theory) inquisitive poster

Which one of these gentlemen do you all feel okay to lynch today? I can’t say I have a strong case against anyone of them, but I’m willing to swing my vote to almost anyone of them to increase some pressure. (Though, as of now, I would prefer either Earwig or Tamuz (and possibly a dark horse: slysly) to be the lynch of the day.)

I also have to say that I do not really like that post. SlySly has already shown some reasons why that post is not very likable (I think that particularly points 1 and 6 make Johoo look scummy), but another notable point here is Johoo's implied eagerness to already go towards the conclusion of the day ("Nothing interesting happening anymore, so let's just lynch one of those guys, I don't even care which one it is").

FOS: Johoohoo

Yes, I do. You're speculating about the structure of the game without any evidence at all. I agree that Tar's emoticon on the subject (I believe it was "Twisted Evil") would seem to indicate that in whatever way this game is "mostly" mountainous is not to the town's benefit. But even assuming that there is a SK, I find it somewhat difficult to believe that Johoohno would advertise himself as such. However, for day one, it's pointless and wastes the town's time to speculate about whether there's an SK in this game until we have good evidence to point to one. So, bring this up again on day two.

I agree that Day 1 is a little bit early for speculating about the structure of the game. However, I think you were misunderstanding me there. I was not really speculating about the structure of the game in my attack against Johoo. I took Johoo's speculation about the game and his comment about people below the radar, and I thought I could already put one and one together from there.

[Nyktorion]

Finally I think that we might have a serial killer amongst us, making this game MOSTLY mountainuous (or those of you who are more knowledgeable than I, is there a setup name for vanillas, scums and a SK?). There are quite a few players, myself included, keeping a really low profile.

Why even bring this up? It's certainly a possibility that there is a serial killer in the game, but unless you had some knowledge the rest of us don't (i.e. your role) there's no reason to be certain of that. Any attempt to base your conclusion on the name of the game is an attempt to out-guess the mod, and that's something that's pretty well useless.

Yyou are bringing up a point very close to what made me attack Johoohoo in the first place (cf. my post #117). Therefore, I would be interested in knowing whether you think that Johoo's last sentence in your quote is related to the rest of the quote or not.

The next post of great significance is the famous post 169. Now, the main issue in this post is the "lynch someone and get it over with" attitude that you seem to be conveying here. It seemed, in your post, that you weren't really interested in who got lynched, but rather that it happen as soon as possible. This sort of attitude is indicative of someone who is far more interested in night than in the day.

QFT - as I mentioned before in #187, this is also my main problem with Johoo's post, besides points 1 and 6 of SlySly's list. Johoo's reply to point 1 seems fine, however

6. I felt as if no new information were being added, but weren't up for ending the day either, I thought this would be a good way to lead on the discussion. I also believe that you can get some information of how people reacted to my post in question.

your claim of "but weren't up for ending the day either" is just the thing I have a hard time with to belive.

So in closing, the top two candidates of my list of suspicions stay the same. Of course there are still the low-profile players who might seem worthy to take a closer look at, but currently they are overshadowed by RC and Johoo.

[Nyktorion]

My opinion about the exchange between ryan and Blackberry:

even though I do not agree with the original reason of ryan to vote against BB, I still have to side with ryan in this fight. BB, it is great for you if you know that ryan is scum. However, in order to make a lynch out of that, 7 townspeople would have to know that ryan is scum - and your arguments are not very good at convincing the remaining 6 people that ryan is really scum, and that you are not just either another townie who is jumping to conclusions too quickly, or scum who is trying to get a townie lynched.

So I think that BB is making himself look rather bad in this argument. However, because of the way RC seems to be shielding BB, I prefer to keep my vote where it is. ROTN, you are right that this tactic is rather poor for scum, but as a reason to keep suspicion away from RC, this argument is just WIFOM.

[Nyktorion]

hmmm... How happy would I be if Rosso gets lynched?

Not very

Care to Repost your voting reasons with relation to current events Nyktorion & Jester?

My points against RC are currently the following:

- offered little content up to now, but still his number of posts is not too low ("lurking in plain sight") - this is even worse than normal lurking. With normal lurkers, you can not be that sure if they are just a townie who lost interest (which would have to be dealt with by replacements instead of a lynch), or scum who is doing this strategically. If the lurker still cares to stay around to write posts with little content, the probabilities are shifted towards the second option.

- he never explains his vote against Earwig, he does not even say why he cannot explain it (if that is the case)

- third, we have his connection to Blackberry. While I thought of it in a rather random way the first time I saw it, the fact that the connection has popped up twice more by now is looking very bad.

Concerning the current events, I already told you what I think about the ryan-Blackberry fight. At first, I was not really sure about post #242. It did have the two bad points which were mentioned afterwards. However, I did not understand TNE's post as "I vote RC, but I don't want him lynched", but rather as "I vote RC, but I don't want him lynched *already right now*", so that would still be defendable. The plagiarism of SlySly looks more interesting though. SlySly himself does not deem this worthy of changing his vote against RC towards TNE. Though, the choice of words IS quite similar. The horrible excuse in #247 is the thing that that seals TNE's deal for me, however. How can you go from post #229 straight to reply and not even get a glimpse of what was going on straight below #230? And more importantly, how did you know that you were putting RC at L-2 if you went straight to "reply" from post #229?

Unvote, Vote: TheNextEpisode

However, for the reasons described in the first part of my post, RC is still worthy of a big FOS.

FOS: Rosso Carne

Last, but not least:

Mod

, you say in post #248 that the final deadline is on February 27 (because we fail the fourth deadline review), which is only two weeks after the initial deadline. However, in #246, you say that we pass the thirs deadline review, and that the new deadline is on March 5, so isn't Febraury 27 one week too early?

[Nyktorion]

Yes, your post answers the first of my two questions, but not the second (more interesting) one.

[Nyktorion]

Mod

, have you read my question in #254?

Mod

, you say in post #248 that the final deadline is on February 27 (because we fail the fourth deadline review), which is only two weeks after the initial deadline. However, in #246, you say that we pass the thirs deadline review, and that the new deadline is on March 5, so isn't Febraury 27 one week too early?

alright dont believe me.
i dont pay that much attention but thats something i guess ill have to learn for the future.
lynch me if you will.
ill still win when you guys get blackberry and rosso.

So you claim you really thought you cast the fourth vote on RC, and that that fourth vote was L-2? That is quite a lot of naivety you are claiming here, and that doesn't sound really believable to me anymore. Trying to cover things up like that sounds really scummy to me.

[quote="thenextepisode]would you like a claim?[/quote]

Since 4 people are not enough yet to really pose a threat of a lynch, that is up to the rest of the town to decide by choosing how much they support the wagon against you.

Part of me thinks Sly is probably bussing.

It's true that SlySly held back against thenextepisode against the lying thing came up. However, I don't think that now is the right time to discuss SlySly - if we indeed decide to lynch thenextepisode, and he actually turns out to be scum, then it would be a topic on Day 2, though.

[Nyktorion]

A couple of people, especially SlySly and earwig, seem to be focusing very specifically on the idea that thenextepisode is lying when he seems to just be very confused and not terribly good at the game. Disregarding my personal distaste for the Lynch-All-Liars strategy, all of his statements can be just as easily attributed to incompetence as to a lie. Taking his poorly worded posts to mean what you want and then proving that the thing you've taken them to mean isn't true doesn't actually prove that he was lying even if he meant what you think he meant. The very most you are proving is that his posts are inaccurate, which given how confusing they are, seems just as easily attributed to poor reading/comprehension as to any attempt to deceive anyone.

I disagree with the notion that all of TNE's lying can be attributed to just poor wording and confusion. "L-2", "L-1" and "after reading 229, i went straight to reply" are rather unambiguous terms in my book. For me, it's currently looking like TNE did borrow from SlySly in his #242. While this is not really that bad on its own, the way he tries to cover this up in #247 (instead of just acknowledging a connection between #242 and #230) is seriously irritating me.

Jester + Mountainous=contradiction much?

Well, it's just *mostly* mountainous, so there are still a lot of possible setups, I guess. However, I think that speculating too much about that right now is more about trying to outguess the mod than about actually generating useful information.

[Nyktorion]

The experience you already have... is it from other forum mafia games, or from RL mafia games?

[Nyktorion]

forum mafia.

So I guess you already have a little bit of experience with the kind of logic that is applied here. Still, if you say you just played with newbies, your lying-mistake might really be attributed to newbness. I'll still keep my eyes on you, but for now, the trace leading to you does not seem to yield anymore new information.

unvote

From the metagaming fight going on right now, I am unable to draw any conclusions at this point. WHile I don't want to cast a vote solely based on metagaming, I also won't call a person scummy for trying to bring up metagame arguments. My eyes are currently on the one who is already being forgot by the town.

RC, my arguments against you are still standing, they were just covered by the TNE issue for some time. Do you have anything you want to say about these things now?

unFOS: Rosso Carne

Vote: Rosso Carne

[Nyktorion]

By just looking at ryan's last posts and the general forums, I could not find the reasons for ryan's ban. However, if the he got banned for destroying a game/games, then my previous experience with such people would tell me not to draw any conclusions on his alignment from his behavior.

PS:

Mod

, I have unFOSed RC when I put my vote back on him.

[Nyktorion]

:arrow: ryan was being deliberately insulting;
:arrow: ryan was resorting to

ad hominem

attacks;
:arrow: ryan was flip-flopping from target to target, following the crowd; and,
:arrow: ryan's attacks weren't particularly reasoned or logical.

Pieces of my attack that are meta:
:arrow: The stuff that's above is not ryan's usual town play-style.

Your last point actually subsuming the four above is the reason why your attack is perceivable as meta, in my opinion. However, looking at the four above points separately, I would say that the first two points are definitely not conclusive about the alignment of a person who directly breaks the rules in 3 games. That leaves points 3 and 4, but even there, I am not really sure whether it means something about a person who gets himself banned.

I am also seeing that the sudden focus on TNE has decimated the general attention on RC. To be honest, I do not like it that he gets out of focus without having to defend himself at all. If Ecto's "scum angel #3" from post #243 is telling the truth, then the scum's tactics are working well up to now.

[Nyktorion]

Perhaps it's time for each of us to present our top three scum list?

In my first newbie game, an IC has made the suggestion in a stuck D1 that everybody should write up such a "toplist", as well. However, that IC was scum, so I am very inclined to believe the critics of your suggestion.

[Nyktorion]

Since so many are claiming their top scum-candidates, and Johoo's logic about that information being less useful to scum than a "top 3 townie list" does sound reasonable, I'll join this, too.

My top suspects at the moment are RC, Johoo, and TNE, in that order. For RC, the reasons I stated in #254 still hold. Johoo has not been providing a lot of content up to now, and wrote the infamous post #169. Furthermore, Day 1 in a "mostly mountainous" game does not really seem like a good opportunity to get a lot of information out of speculating about the existence of an SK or a Jester. Last, we have TNE, who is a newbie, but still not looking too good after the events around posts #242 and #247.

A question to Tony:

If you did not know about your (and BB's) alignment, whom out of RC and BB would you believe to be scummier, and what would make that person stand out from the other one?

[Nyktorion]

Personally, I don't really think that BB's aggression/scattergunning is really scummy, so for me, RC is a worthier voting target than BB. This is also covered by your answer, Tony, so this seems fine to me.

However, what one thing that does tick me off a bit is that you fear that BB's connection to RC might be the premier reason for voting you. I understand that your previous experiences might influence you here. However, I think that RC had much more pressure in this game than BB up to now, so why did you emphasize that fear so much?

[Nyktorion]

As 'honest' as you think it could sound ecto... it still sounds scummier than high hell.

This honesty does not clear TNE of his prior scumminess, correct. However, in my opinion, it does reinforce my believe that he should stay only at the end my list of top suspects right now.

All of you who didn't like my post 169 shouldn't be too enthusiastic about Battousai's 377 either.

Well, Battousai does is not directly going towards a lynch with his post, but he explicitly calls RC and you to defend yourselves. Considering that we haven't seen much defense yet, particularly from RC, this does not sound too bad to me.

[Nyktorion]

Nyktorion. My initial read on you was townie, and it still pretty much is. You've been consistent in your attacks on J and RC, though you were a little quick to join the TNE band-wagon. Said you didn't believe TNE was a VI (268), said that you didn't find BB's "scattergunning" all that scummy (367). You seem to be pretty focused on J, RC, and BB, and I mostly am too, so I guess that's OK. I still mostly read you as a townie.

When I first saw the forming wagon against TNE, I honestly did not really know what to think of it. I saw the points stated against TNE, but I was unsure whether they were significant enough to override my growing antipathy against RC, and whether these points were actually making him that scummy. While considering how much sense TNE's play would have made from a town or scum perspective, I then realized the logical inconcsistency in his post, and that was what made the final decision for me. This is also reflected in the post where I attacked him first (#254): If you look back, you will see that I was starting my attack by repeating the already mentioned points in a rather hesitant way. However, only when I came to pointing out the logical mistake in his excuse, I became a lot more offensive towards him - and I believe that that reason justified the attack.

I remain with my point that BB's scattergunning is not that scummy. In particular on D1, as long as you have not found a sufficiently strong indication of scummyness anywhere, this seems fine. I would even say that I was scattergunning myself in the beginning. I switched votes and FOSes in 7 out of my first 10 posts in this game. This lasted until I found a lead that was worthy enough to warrant keeping my vote in place for a longer time.

There is one point I don't understand in your post: what is a VI?

[Nyktorion]

Since Tamuz was so focused on a comment to his fight against Johoohoo, here is what I think about it:

• Tamuz (and Dean Harper) was the first ones to post (4) only minutes after the mod started the game. That MIGHT be an indication that mafia had talked things through and sent in their confirmations waiting for the game to start. (I know it would be more valid if I also saw Dean Harper/RangeroftheNorth as a possible scum partner, which I don’t at the moment.)
• Seems to post only to appear active (post 84, 120 and 325) and sometimes it’s just about wordings (288).
• As I’ve said before he also wonders about the FoS-counts (post 94 which I talked about in post 202).
• In post 191 RangeroftheNorth votes for me and Tamuz quickly shifts to me too (post 193 and 197) perhaps seeing me as a wagon that’ll build up quickly.
• Post 199 is a fishy post where he tries to give himself airs to avoid reading the game closely and focus on staying alive. Someone else has already said this, the point is not, for an individual townie, to stay alive (unless that would benefit the town).
• He is also against a Rosso Carne lynch 249 and asks for Nyktorion and Jester’s reason for said lynch. Here I see two possible things. Perhaps he wants to lift up this issue once more with the help of two, at that time, very townish players to come to a lynch (seeing their reasons and then agreeing with them). It could also be that they are scum pairs (Rosso and Tamuz). In this game a lot of people have connected players with one another and perhaps Tamuz feels that this one will only be one among many and won’t be picked up. The last point is in that case even more shadowed by adding more bussing issues in the thread in post 266.
• (* This last entry is only for conspiratorial fun Tamuz mentioned Battousai in post 120. He is also the one who informs the game of ryan’s ban 321. Lo’ and behold, enter Battousai 324.)

1. Horrible

time based meta

with someone who you think isn't scum with me.
2. Floppy point with subjective wording

"seems"

3. Not reading the rules. OMG that makes me scum!
4. Agreeing with reasonable rhetoric and applying pressure. (this one I'll give you, it can seem scummy) BUT you add motive of "perhaps seeing me as a wagon that'll build up quickly. Psshhhhhh if you go that far out of your way to dish motives onto me to call me scum, I call this point weak at worst. On top of that you say "Perhaps", you aren't even sure of yourself to call me out. None of this weak language. Just say it if you think its the truth. "I think Tamuz is doing this because he want to build a quick wagon on me". Scum use weak words like Seems and Perhaps. You are scum. I am voting for you.
5. See frustration from Battousai SlySly game. And I know that me staying alive would be cool. I know my role, I know my win condition is to get rid of dem rascal mafiates. I don't know anyone elses. And in a MM game where powerroles are minute at best who is there to sacrifice myself for as a target? Another vanilla? Hell yeah I want to stay alive
6. I don't even understand this point. HOW does this make me scummy. I ask people to qualify themselves in a point where the game was stagnating. And personally Jester is not Townish to me. The second half of your point 6 is a dead ramble.

Point 1 does seem like a stretch, however, it was also formulated weaker than his other points, indicating that this was not really Johoo's main point. Points 2-4 are real points against Tamuz or whoever is replacing him. They don't make him scum yet, but they do make him scummy. The thing is just that we currently have scummier players than that in the game. I would have to read the "Battousai-SlySly-Tamuz" game in order to really be able to judge Tamuz's defense agaist point 5. Concerning point 6, it is of course okay if Tamuz asks Jester and me for our reasons to vote. However, Johoo's other point here makes sense: it might have been good to post some reasons when stating an opinion that goes so much against the mainstream.

Ecto's attack against Tamuz does seem based on a rather small foundation. However, albeit small, the foundation is sound: as long as Battousai does not do anything detrimental for town in this game, he should not be attacked for his behavior somewhere else.

Currently, I am still happy with my vote on RC, and Johoo's point that RC is also able to act pro-town on D1 only adds to that.

[Nyktorion]

As I said, the game pointed out by Johoo does show that RC. Furthermore, he is much more experienced than TNE and therefore should probably know full well what he is doing right now - which increases the chance that his acting is not just desinterest, but calculated. And hiding your tactics from the town in this way cannot be good for the town. It could very well be his strategy to just do nothing significant. Then all cases against him can only be based on this one thing, and discussion about him are deadened by the fact that he just does not respond to accusations.

TNE has not made himself likable either, but seems not just as bad as RC: he is at least somewhat trying to help town (though he is just following other a lot, too), and he has his newbishness working for him here.

[Nyktorion]

One little question to you, too:

Hmm. Here I was expecting to see some opportunistic attacks on me for my boldness on Tamuz. That's a surprising post from you Nyktorian, and not just because it happens to support my position.

Why do you think this is surprising, considering that probably 8-10 of us 12 are pro-town?

[Nyktorion]

Am I allowed to say that I think this was kind of a bad move? Neither Tamuz nor Fat_Tony were major drivers in the game. I'd be inclined to either remove or retain both of their votes, get on with the deadline, see who gets NK'ed, and deal with replacing them day two. Second?

Ecto, RC and Earwig are not voting and are not major factors in this game, so it looks like you've got the deciding vote. We're not gonna lynch Tamuz today, so who's your second choice?

Jester, I don't like the "finally get over with the day" mentality that stems from the qouted parts of your post #482. Yes, Tamuz and Fat_Tony were really not important players, but seeing the thoughts of their replacements before the first night would still help our Day 2.

If the votes on stay as they are, then Ecto's vote is surely an influential one, but your post looks like you try to pressure him into his decision too quickly.

FOS: Jester

[Nyktorion]

I understand how this would be suspicious, so I'll explain it. We're now 5 days from deadline. I once replaced into a game about this size at the end of day 2 with a looming deadline, and it took me 8 days to read the game. By the time I'd finished my read, the deadline happened and I was night-killed.

Fortunately, I got enough comments (and a vote) in before the deadline to be helpful to the game and help lynch a scum, but it didn't stop the fact that I went through a tremendous amount of labor for only a little gain.

I see, that satisfies me, thanks for your explanation.

unFOS: Jester

Looking at another game of mozsuggs, it looks like we have gotten ourselves someone who isn't claiming scum as a joke for the first time. So I really don't know what to conclude from your mafia roleblocker post.

[Nyktorion]

Looking at another game of mozsuggs, it looks like we have gotten ourselves someone who isn't claiming scum as a joke for the first time. So I really don't know what to conclude from your mafia roleblocker post.

You found other instances where he's done it? Can you share info if the games are finished? I'd be interested in looking.

Sorry, the game where I found this information is not finished yet, so I think I may not directly point to it

[Nyktorion]

Interesting... why could they have killed SlySly? Even though he was not one of the main suspects, he also did not come across as one of the undisputed townies to me, either.

[Nyktorion]

Randomness is of course a plausible explanation for SlySly's death. Another possibility would be that scum wants to create some WIFOM about Ecto's alignment (because of his exchange with SlySly at the end of D1), but as said, that would just be WIFOM. They might have of course also also been looking for some power role in him, but that seems not so probable in a mostly mountainus game.

Due to the modkill ending D1 and the lack of concrete information from the SlySly-kill (besides SlySly being town, of course), I guess we are in now in a very similar situation as we were before the night. However, I see one interesting difference, which is going in favor of RC: his "scumbuddy" Blackberry/Fat_Tony/mozsuggs was town.

[Nyktorion]

In the Mizzy-Johoo dispute, I am currently rather in favor of Johoo's defense. Rosso's play in the referenced game indeed seems radically more active than his play in this game. Concerning Johoo's case against Tamuz, I have already stated my opinion in post #469. I do not think Johoo's case to be scummy. Specifically, contrary to what Mizzy states in #545, I do not consider points 2 and 3 of the case null-tells.

The one part of Mizzy's attack I can really agree with is the following:

Needing a lynch D1 is a given. Lynching who we think is scummiest is a given. This post of yours is a key example of attempting to look active without actually being active.

Yes, we need to choose a lynch target. That doesn't give you an excuse for blatantly trying to reach night sooner than needed. Longer days are pro-town, and the more discussion we get, the better it is.

Well, did we get a lynch day 1? Nope! I felt that we were heading that way and didn’t like that one bit. Therefore I said what I said and I still stand by it. And it is valid still, we need a lynch this day. I am not wanting to end the day prematurely but perhaps Mizzy can conjure up another mean for us to get the scum besides lynching them?

Johoohoo, you claim you saw it coming that moz was going to be modkilled, and not replaced? We do need lynches, but the more we think about it before actually doing it, the better.

However, the shallow content of RC's last posts shows that he should still retain the #1 spot on my scumlist.

Vote: Rosso Carne

[Nyktorion]

Did you check his profile to look at his posting habits? This isn't the only game he's being sparse in.

I can't see using that as a reason to lynch someone, but I can understand, I suppose, why you would vote him. Pressure might get him to participate more.

And then, there is still the referenced newbie game, which makes it really hard to understand his habits.

I had the feeling that we weren't going to get a lynch since enough of us couldn't agree on whom to lynch.

We always get a lynch when the deadline hits, see rule #10.

[Nyktorion]

I made a mix up (since all games I've played on a Swedish site has had that rule #10 mechanism and all games, besides this one, I've played here haven't).

That sounds understandable if you look at it in isolation. However, if that is a legitimate reason for not remembering rule 10, why did you include this

As I’ve said before he also wonders about the FoS-counts (post 94 which I talked about in post 202).

in your case against Tamuz, then? After all, this also amounts to "not reading the rules"? Also, the rule in question is rule #10 in this case, as well - the very same rule which you seem to have forgotten now.

[Nyktorion]

We probably have a (one-shot?) vig or a SK here. I doubt that there is any suicidal role involved here (like the army veteran described by Battousai, or a suicide bomber). In that case, we would have had some non-vanilla role description in the night scene. Rosso has not targeted anything that could have triggered his nuking (he had no special role, and voted for a vanilla). Furthermore, he was a vanilla, so he hasn't sacrificed himself for anything.

[Nyktorion]

So, many people who seemed rather anti-town in the first two days are now dead (the exception to this rule would be TNE).

Also, it seems pretty clear to me that Rosso was vigged. The guy was acting like an ass, and certainly deserved his fate. And heaven knows he certainly drew any vigs we have in the game on himself. I don't think I've ever seen such anti-town behavior. It'd be hard to find a person in this game that didn't want Rosso dead, so finding out who killed him is going to be tough unless someone now wants to claim vig. I'm not a vig.

I do not really understand why you want the vig (if we have one) to come out. Wouldn't this just expose him to the mafia, if he was really a vig? And even him really being a vig is not that sure, since it would a good claim for an SK, too.

I don't really know what the mafia want to accomplish by kiling Earwig, but a guess would be that his death does not give much information about the alignment of anyone else in the game.

[Nyktorion]

By the way, Jester, I would be careful with voting already... if there are three scum, we might be in LyLo already

[Nyktorion]

Even though scum have not jumped at the opportunity yet (in case there is such an opportunity right now), I think that it would still be better for Jester to retract his vote and change it into a FOS for the time. "Holes" #3 and #4 pointed out by Battousai are still very possible.

[Nyktorion]

If we have a vig, then the current setup is probably 4vs3. If we lynch scum today, and scum kill tonight, then it is 3vs2 - in that case, vigging would be a bad decision, because it would risk going from 3vs2 to 2vs2. However, if we mislynch today, then (including the probable nightkill, but not including the vigging), we will be at 2vs3 in that case tomorrow, so I would advise to use the vig kill in that case.

Short version: if we lynch scum today, the vig (in case he exists) should hold back tonight. If we lynch town today, then the vig should use his ability.

[Nyktorion]

There's good reason to believe the vig was one-shot. Otherwise, why not act earlier in the game? RC was just as much of a dick at the start of night 1 as he was at the start of night 2, maybe more so. There was no reason why a multi-shot vig shouldn't have shot RC on night 1. A one-shot vig, though, would have held his bullet hoping for more evidence.

There's no SK, and anyone who argues that there might be is either misguided or is actively trying to screw with the town. See below for the argument.

You are right. A vig in this game is probably a one-shot vig because there was only one death in N1, which was not RC. However, other scenarios are still possible (albeit less likely than the one-shot vig). We could have power role in the game (e.g. Mafia RB vs. standard vig?), the standard vig could have decided that RC was "just being an ass, but not scum", and for some reason have also chosen SlySly as target, we could have an SK, etc. While the case described by you is surely the most probable, it is not enough that I would like to bet the entire game on it.

I posted my 641 curious about who would speculate about number of mafia. As a matter of fact, I don't think we're at lylo. If there are three scum in this game with no or few pro-town power roles (vig doesn't really count), then this game was badly unbalanced in favor of the scum from the start. To my knowledge, the scum have won every standard mountainous game (2 scum, 10 vanilla town) on this site to date. They don't need three scum, and they better not have three scum. They've got two.

The fact that scum have won every standard mountainous to date would have likely given Tar good reason to introduce a weak pro-town role to try to balance the set-up a bit. Thus, "mostly" mountainous. That's why I think we have a one-shot vig.

Again, two scum makes more sense than three with a one-shot vig, but how can we know that Tarhalindur thinks the same?

And with that said, this renders the rest of Nyktorion's argument about a SK, as well as Ecto's argument on the same, as non-sensical. There's no SK in this game. If there were, there'd be two possibilities:
a) we have one mafia and one SK, or to put it another way, two SKs. There was only one Night 1 kill, so we don't have this set-up.
b) we have two mafia and one SK, and this game is hideously unbalanced against the town. There was only one Night 1 kill, so we don't have this set-up, either.

Well, an SK not only hurts the town, but also the mafia. As long as expected town and mafia win rates are still about equal, and each as least as great as the SK's, I don't see the impossibility of that setup.

So, in closing: I think your post does a good job in arguing which setup we most likely have. However, there are still many small possibilities of diferences, and the probabilities for these do add up. Thus, I still don't like it as a justification for throwing out votes in the current situation. I think using FOSes instead would not really have any drawback, but eliminate any of the risks I outlined above.

[Nyktorion]

We could have power role in the game (e.g. Mafia RB vs. standard vig?), the standard vig could have decided that RC was "just being an ass, but not scum", and for some reason have also chosen SlySly as target, we could have an SK, etc. While the case described by you is surely the most probable, it is not enough that I would like to bet the entire game on it.

Mountainous game.

FOS: Nyktorion

I am aware that a mountainous game consists only of vanilla townies and scum. However, it's only mostly mountaious, and although we have already confirmed that there is at least one special role in this game, the existence of a second one might not be too far out of reach.

Well, an SK not only hurts the town, but also the mafia. As long as expected town and mafia win rates are still about equal, and each as least as great as the SK's, I don't see the impossibility of that setup.

Then you have some explanation, however improbable, for the single kill on Night 1?

ROTN has already answered this question for me and given some possible scenarios. It would also be possible that the SK might have targeted SlySly, too, for some reason.

A SK does not hurt the town and the mafia equally. Just looking at basic probability, a SK has a 82% chance of hitting town on N1 and only an 18% chance of hitting mafia.

Even though the chance that an SK hits town is much higher than the chance that he hits scum, the loss of a townie also hurts the town considerably less than the loss of scum hurts the mafia.

We've got to get this right on lynches. I'm thinking if there is a 1 shot Vig, they may as well speak up. Their power is used, they are vanilla at this point, and at least it might clear up the air somewhat (if we can believe them). Would that make sense? I know, people could try all kinds of tricks, but they would have to fess up to a killing last night at least.

This is a good point. The game-mechanical aspect of a one-shot vig would be used up now, so his death would not hurt us much more than the death of a vanilla townie would hurt us. However, there is still the claimability aspect of a one-shot vig, and I think that now would be a good time to use that aspect. Hence, I would support the idea that everyone claims whether they are a one-shot vig who used their kill last night or not. I suggest to fix some random order of claiming in order to minimize the chance that scum claims one-shot vig after six others have claimed not to be that role.

[Nyktorion]

99% of the time, SKs are required to kill every single night. If they weren't, they wouldn't kill at all until the late game to hide their presence in the game. When SKs miss their deadline, mods are generally required to pick someone for them to kill at random for this reason. And I invite you to point me to a single game on this entire site where a SK could only kill on even-numbered nights.

This whole conversation is distracting the town and has an enormous Occam's Razor flavor to it. What's more likely:
a) that we have two power roles and/or two killing groups in a mountainous game, even one that's "mostly" mountainous?
b) or that all this SK shit is being stirred up by mafia trying to muddy the water?

I know what I think is going on, and this is therefore the last thing I'm going to say on the subject of a SK in this game.

I think I need to point out how we even came to the SK debate. It started with your vote on Battousai and a discussion about whether your vote might have been too risky. Obviously, if we are already in LyLo, then your vote was a rather bad move, so it boiled down to the question how likely it was that we were in LyLo - and that is where all the discussion about SKs, and the setup in general started. Also, I never claimed that an SK-scenario would be more likely than your scenario (see post #688), but I did say (and I still say) that such a scenario is likely enough to make your quick vote an unnecessarily risky move for the town (in case you are town, that is). Only if you are scum (or even an... SK), you would have no reason to worry that your vote on Battousai would go too far. So I think it would be right to FOS you back here.

FOS: Jester

P.S: I still would like to know from all of you whether you would like a possible one-shot vig who killed in N2 to claim. I still support this idea.

[Nyktorion]

I originally wanted to wait until everyone answered whether they wanted a mass-one-vig-claim or not, and then set up a random order of doing the claims. However, since we are running out of time, I think that it is better to just start the claiming right now, so I will begin with it:

Claim: I am not a one-shot vig who killed RC last night.

To get things moving a bit again, I will present my opinion about the remaining people in this game:

Something Awesome:

Thanks to OGML for reminding me of him. Both he and his predecessor have not been really helpful for town. The things his predecessor TNE actually said were also not really in his favor: we have the infamous posts #247 and #242. Moreover, my attention also got to the acts around BBs theory (who we know to be town now), starting on page 4, again. Looking at this again, TNE is looking really inconsistent here. Definitely still worthy of a FOS.

Jester:

Got my attention recently with his vehemence in arguing about the most probable setup (and that therefore voting instead of FOSing was still very). While, by that logic, I should be happy that he removed his vote now, I don't like the reasoning for that action at all. You have more faith in randomness than your own vote? I'll keep my FOS on you.

ryan/Battousai:

I did see some small points about ryan. Speaking of the BB-theory affair, ryan did not really make himself look good during the BB-theory discussion, either. I also got the slight impression that ryan and Tamuz might be affiliated during Day 1. However, from the point after Battousai replaced, I could find nothing supporting that connection, so my points are really too inconclusive to call him scum.

Tamuz/Mizzy:

We do have Johoohoo's case against Tamuz, which mostly agreed with (even though Mizzy calls the central points "null-tells"). However, again, I do not really dare to call Mizzy scum already.

Ecto/OGML, ROTN:

These are the players that I currently view as most townish.

For the mod:

FOS: Something Awesome

[Nyktorion]

This makes me uneasy. Speculating about number of scum always makes me feel like its a mafia playing dumb.

I am not really sure why, but this line from him in combination with the rest of his play makes me feel pretty sure that he's pro-town. I can't imagine that a scummer would have ever said that sentence in that way when they were barely playing the game, anyway. Maybe it's just gut but I feel thenextepisode/SA is town.

I don't see how this could not also be said by scum seeing an opportunity to just post something. However, what *is* making me a bit uneasy about TNE/SA is the fact that all other people who acted "obviously" anti-town (RC, mozsuggs, Earwig) turned up vanilla.

[Nyktorion]

Well... but who would you say we should lynch, then?

[Nyktorion]

I think SA is the better lynch for today. Yes, we do ave the comparison to RC/Earwig, but in his case, we do have something more against him than just lurking and deadline lurking.

Vote: Something Awesome

[Nyktorion]

Which is what, exactly?

Something Awesome:

Thanks to OGML for reminding me of him. Both he and his predecessor have not been really helpful for town. The things his predecessor TNE actually said were also not really in his favor: we have the infamous posts #247 and #242. Moreover, my attention also got to the acts around BBs theory (who we know to be town now), starting on page 4, again. Looking at this again, TNE is looking really inconsistent here. Definitely still worthy of a FOS.

[Nyktorion]

That was a pretty obvious night-kill. ROTN, when he was here, was extremely townish. Tar has also confirmed my interpretation of the game: the remaining players are three vanilla townies and two mafia members. Anybody wanna argue with that interpretation

now

?

No.

Night 3 ended on Tar's short deadline, which means that both of our scum are active and watching the thread frequently.

The only ight action which has probably happened was the nightkill, so I think it would also be possible that only one of the two scums is active.

Now on to what seems to be the center of current interest, namely the last part of Day 3. As I think it would have become clear throughout the SK discussion, the reason why I used no votes before the end of Day 3 was that it was not really sure that we were not in LyLo at that time. Of course, the top of my list of suspicious had to be converted into a vote before deadline.

I do not think it should have been a surprise that my vote finally went to SA instead of Battousai, because their positions on my scumdar had been outlined 3 days before in #725. The reason for the timing of my answer to Mizzy's vote was that I was checking the thread more frequently at that time, since it was the evening of the deadline at that time (it was evening in my timezone, then).

Looking for the two scum among us I would start my search at the two remaining deadline lurkers (Jester and Battousai). For both of them, there are circumstances which make it stand out from their standard behaviour. For Jester, we have the fact that he first withdrew his vote before the deadline, and now is angry that we lynched the wrong person (see OGML's hypocrisy argument in #756). For Battousai, lurking for the duration he did in the last days is already by itself a notable change in behaviour. That this change occurred exactly at deadline makes him not look too good.

I would not call Mizzy scummy because of her attack, though. Other than Jester, she did actually try to do something at the end of Day 3. Although the lateness of the last discussion was surely unlucky or us (and I did not think that her towntells outweigh the scummyness of TNE, but now that I know it better, it is too late), any really malevolent intent I can imagine behind this action is already opposed by SA town-alignment.

FOS: Jester, FOS: Battousai

[Nyktorion]

For Jester, we have the fact that he first withdrew his vote before the deadline, and now is angry that we lynched the wrong person (see OGML's hypocrisy argument in #756).

I forgot to add something to the hypocrisy argument in my post: Jester not doing anything about the end of D3, but then complaining that the others did it wrong was only the second occasion where I thought that Jester was being a hypocrit when attacking me. The first such occasion was in post #694. There, he accused me of focussing too much into the SK/setup issue, when he was talking about that very same thing at least as much as I did.

I find it scummy what Nykt did, but I guess less so since he saved a townie to lynch a townie. Maybe he had a hunch Something Awesome was the vig, since a few people said they weren't so that narrowed the field, so he hammered SA.

The problem with this theory is that the alternative lynch (you) had not claimed either, so the claims of the other people would not have really helped me in your scenario.

I would like to note my change in behavior of lurking Nykt pointed out was because of computer problems. I was only able to get for a bit during that time and I posted in a different game before it went back down. I was inactive in all three of my current games.

I just looked at your game list, and what you say seems to be correct, so

unFOS:Battousai

.

[Nyktorion]

Interesting.
:arrow: Where in the two posts I made before you wrote this do I say I was angry? I am, but where did I say this?
:arrow: Are you not angry about the D3 result? Are you, say, happy about it?

I think I chose the wrong words here. I did not really want to talk about anger with the actual result of the Day (of course, I am angry/unhappy with that, too), but rather anger against the lynchers. And while you did not really write that you were showing anger against OGML and me, you made this pretty clear i an implicit way by immediately jumpig at us two at the beginning of D4.

Lie.

I wrote exactly two posts about the setup on D3, and I've been trying to get people to shut up about the set-up and hunt scum since very very early on day 2. I said "there's no SK" all the way back to my very first post on D2, and you only deigned to believe me on the dawn of Day 4. On D3, you started pushing setup discussions in your 623. I asked people in my 641 to state how many scum they thought there were (one post), then explicitly said what I was sure the setup was in my 671 (two posts). When you tried to push another setup discussion in your 688, my total entire response in 694 was "Mountainous game." You then came back with YET ANOTHER setup discussion in your 702. After that, I just ignored you.

So this accusation is a flat-out, blatant lie. As a matter of fact, between April 7 and May 1, you wrote SEVEN posts about the set-up, and your entire argument against me in your 725 was about me "arguing about the most probable setup" (eight?)... and you're accusing me of hypocrisy? Inconsistent much?

If you just wanted the town to focus on scumhunting instead of setup discussions, why did you not just use FOSes instead of votes during the day (the "playing it safe" point I tried to make at that tine, which was also the root of the escalation of the setup discussion), instead of escalating the discussion as well?

If you are counting my 623 and 631 where I metioned a vig (and the possibility of him claiming), you also have to count your 626 where you pushed for a vig-claim. You did not ask people in 641 how many scum there are, you just kept your vote saying that you don't think a quick-hammer would occur (which is where our disagreement started). Then we have your metioned 671 and 694 (posts #3 and #4 about the subject). You just ignoring me (and the argument) from then on is also a wrong statement by you: everything continued in your 704 (your post #5). So our "scores" here are not really far of, and except for 717 ad 722 (whose focus is actually also your attack and unvote against me), the setup was also treated in all of your posts.

Since we know there are two scum, would everyone be willing to give their top scum pair?

While I did not consider you as outstanding as you were before I looked at your posts (May 2 and May 3 is the small thing Bat talked about, and the gap then is really obious, so at least that pint is settled), I would still consider you to be above Mizzy and OGML (who look rather pro-town to me) in my list. So the most probable scumpair would still be Jester-Battousai in my eyes.

One last point: since there seems to be a lot of objection against my vote at the end of Day 3: I can just say to this that SA indeed seemed to be the scummier lynch-candidate to me at that time. Since you seem to think that this action was probably done by a NykScum at that point, I have to ask: what would a NykTown have done in contrast at this point? Vote Battousai against my better belief (at that time)? I don't really think so. Keep quiet? Would be equivalent to voting Bat, with the one difference of drawing less attention (which should not be the reason behing a townie's action in my book). The other change I could think of would be to cast my vote against SA earlier - but my timing was already explained by my "playing it safe" in a

possible

LyLo situation and hence changing my FOSes into votes late. So what contrasts your NykScum scenario from a NykTown in your eyes, then?

[Nyktorion]

1) You could have voted for a third party.
3) You could have voiced your opinions and thoughts and not done anything.

I did lay out the list of scummiest people in my 725, and also, SA was the top candidate there (I am getting the feeling that nobody has read my 725 ). The only other candidate I would have supported a lynch against at that time was Jester, but the given the choice betwenn the two, SA would have bee the result there, too.

2) You could have asked the mod for a deadline postponement in order to have SA replaced and get a roleclaim.

I did view the rules as something rather fixed, so this did not really come to my mind at that time. However, you are right, this would have indeed been an option - the worst thing that could have happened would just Tar be disagreeing, but maybe, he would even have granted us something for SA's disappearing.

coupled with your lack of affect at the mislynch

Of course, I am unhappy about still not hitting scum. However, I don't think it should be a good/necessary thing to take out this affection in public.

The deadline fell on a weekend, and I don't play MS on weekends. Go as far backwards in my posting history as you want. You'll find only a tiny handful of posts from me on Saturday or Sunday, and the bulk of those are probably posts in games that I mod, not ones that I play. RL prevents me from playing on the weekend, pretty much no matter the circumstances.

This still leaves Thursday and Friday open, which would have been eough to post a response/opinion to OGML's attack against SA.

Now then, yes, I said that I would have preferred "crazy shit because of deadline rules" (as you put it) because all of the townies in this game are either not playing or are poor players (and yes, I include myself in that). We were over-loaded with some of the worst townie players I've ever seen in this game, and wading through their BS has been exhausting. I'm not sure if the mafia deserves to win this game, but the town certainly deserves to lose. And my preference for "crazy shit" been proven right: you lynched the town's only power-role, so "crazy shit" would have indeed been preferable to what happened. It definitely couldn't have given us a worse result than you and Nyktorion gave us. So don't get bitchy. You might even show a little tiny bit of regret for your role in the D3 result.

No matter whether your "poor players" argument is actually true or not, this part is probably as anti-town as it can get. If you would really like to criticize the town for their poor-townie way, I feel that the time after the game is decided would be a more appropriate (an less "anti-town" in a game-sense) time to do this.

Since Tar has added a HOS counter:

HOS: Jester

FOS: Jester, Battousai

[Nyktorion]

If you just wanted the town to focus on scumhunting instead of setup discussions, why did you not just use FOSes instead of votes during the day (the "playing it safe" point I tried to make at that tine, which was also the root of the escalation of the setup discussion), instead of escalating the discussion as well?

Ummmm... I did. I used both. I used all three.

I do not know what exactly you mean by "both" and "all three", but it surely cannot be my "playing it safe" and "fos-instead-of-vote" point you quoted.

-----

You might want to actually read 626. I've posted a link to it, just to make it easy.

Also, it seems pretty clear to me that Rosso was vigged. The guy was acting like an ass, and certainly deserved his fate. And heaven knows he certainly drew any vigs we have in the game on himself. I don't think I've ever seen such anti-town behavior. It'd be hard to find a person in this game that didn't want Rosso dead,

so finding out who killed him is going to be tough unless someone now wants to claim vig. I'm not a vig.

-----

You're right about 704, though. I posted that because even ROTN (an obvious townie) was getting sucked into the stupid setup crap that you and Ecto were pushing all through page 27. I got frustrated and wrote 704 just to get ROTN to shut up about it. You'll notice that the conclusion in my 704 was absolutely freakin' correct, whereas the speculative crap you posted in your seven posts had no conclusions and was just stirring shit. So, you're right about 704. I wrote three posts about the setup on day 3.

I think you still do not really get the argument I was tryig to make: your setup was the most probable, but not sure enough to risk everything on it. You still played a game of Russian Roulette with the fate of the town, and even though you won that game, it was still completely unnecessary. The other option is of course, that you already knew more about the number of scum than the rest of the town, and therefore went into this game

that

confidently.

You seem to be counting five posts from me, but I reject your arguments for 626 and 694. Even if I humor you and count them, though, your lie stands. But the fact that you won't admit you were wrong even when you yourself say that you were wrong makes it clear to me: you're scum.

I reject your rejection of my arguments for 626 and 694. And, if you go by counting the number of posts that mentioned, then of course I posted more about the SK topic than you did. When I posted my "lie", I did not count the number of posts mentioning the SK. I just clearly remembered that you were involved into this discussion in all of your posts. What makes you call me scummy now is just the fact that you had less posts than me in total during the considered period of time (due to your schedule), but that does not mean that you had less involvement there.

At this point, if nobody else is going to take an action before then, I'm going to vote for Nyktorion on Thursday. I'm now 100% convinced he's scum. But I've been wrong in this game before, so if someone wants to thrown down a vote and a justification on another target, do it before Thursday. But at this point, I'm sure enough about Nyktorion to commit and risk a town loss if I'm wrong, if nobody else will commit first.

In the meantime, Nyktorion, you sound pretty sure about me. Why not go ahead and put a vote down on me?

This is rather similar to the SK issue we had yesterday: I think you are by far the most probable scum here. However, I think that, as long as we have time, we may still use it to play it safely.

On the other hand, should you decide to start the actual voting, then I will surely return the vote: then, if you are scum, the vote is obviously well-placed (as it would already be without you voting me). However, in the unlikely, but possible, case that you are also town, scum would have already myself as a quicklynch target - when they get a second such target, that would not make the situation any worse (one quicklynch target is already enough for scum to win the game in LyLo).

That can either be on purpose or a mistake, and since we have no way of knowing which it is, it's a null tell. Your post feels like defense via offense and makes you look scummier in my book.

I think the danger of LyLo was actually the point of the whole two/scum/three scum/SK discussion. So how would it be anything other than on purpose, then?

I didn't even connect the dots to it being possibly lylo that day until someone mentioned it, so I can't fault or judge anyone else on it.

LyLo was first mentioned in post #634, which I would still count towards the early part of Day 3.

[Nyktorion]

Short version: if OMGL feels like he needs more time, then I'll give him time to post something substantive. But it sure looks to me like Battousai and Nyktorion, despite their apparent annoyance with me wanting to take action, don't feel like countering it by taking action themselves.

So do you want me to vote you first? No matter what, it still sounds like you want the voting to start rather sooner than later, which looks rather hasty at this point.

I used both: FOS and voting. I used all three: FOS, voting, and escalating the discussion. See the original quote in my 782.

In that case, you did not really understand the quote which you answered when you first mentioned "all three":

If you just wanted the town to focus on scumhunting instead of setup discussions, why did you not just use FOSes instead of votes during the day (the "playing it safe" point I tried to make at that tine, which was also the root of the escalation of the setup discussion), instead of escalating the discussion as well?

Ummmm... I did. I used both. I used all three.

The usage of FOSes, as described in your quote, would have excluded the usage of votes (hence I said "playing it safe"). So in that case, "both" and "all three" is not really a good answer to what I said.

Emphasis mine. "Unless" is recognized by most English-language speakers as a conditional. I was hoping that someone would claim, but wasn't requesting it or demanding it. I could see a lot of conditions under which someone might not want to claim, including the possibility that they had more than one shot.

No matter what the exact semantics of your sentence were, your way of bringing this up, combined with your own immediate claim of not being vig, does at least carry an implicit push for a vig-mass-claim. You even say yourself that you hope that the vig would claim, and that is also how 626 already came across.

Oh, look. A completely inconsistent argument. IF there had been three scum in this game, then the town was only in danger if and ONLY IF I was town. We had seven players, and one vote placed, by me. All three scum would have had to join me to get Battousai lynched, AND I would have to be a townie for it to have worked.

"Jester is probably scum" and "JesterTown put the town in danger with his D3 antics" are completely opposite positions. Sorry, but they can't both be true, and yet you seem to believe both of them. Pick one. Better still, pick neither of them, because neither of those positions are true, and you know it.

So let me spell this out some more: If you were town, then you would have put the town into danger (you would not

know

the 2-scum setup then, but at the most see it as

most likely

). Still taking unnecessary gambles, and sticking to them like this, would not make so much sense then, and therefore decrease the probability of this sceario (where you are town). Hence, the other option, where you already knew what was going on, is that much more likely.

The rest of your 788 strikes me as pot-stirring.

I don't really conider this an argument, so I won't add any more to this quote.

Well, Nyk just seems to show very little affect when it comes to being FoSed or accused...he just seems way, way too calm about the whole thing.

I would consider myself a rather calm person in general. Also, I think that going straight to arguing makes more sense than showing everyone how unpleased you are with the results of the lynch (we know that all townies should be unpleased with the current results, anyway). Since we are playing a forum game, and not meatworld mafia, it does not even make so much sense to judge how real someone's show of unpleasedness appears. So I don't see how me being "too calm" relates to my alignment in the game, rather than my personality.

He was the hammer on SA, which in effect saved Battousai's ass, making me think that Nyk knows something more than we do, namely Battousai's alignment.

Battousai's posting has not been consistent with what I'd consider pro-town posting from him for one, and two, I've been keeping an eye on him for a long time for some shady logic. That and Nyk out of the blue saved his ass.

This is a point I already tried to make this day: that this vote was

not

out of the blue, but that I made my preferences clear before through #725.

[Nyktorion]

This is a point I already tried to make this day: that this vote was

not

out of the blue, but that I made my preferences clear before through #725.

And yet you didn't actually vote until there was a tie, even though you thought he was pretty suspicious. We weren't in lylo then, so why did you go so long without voting? Also, according to your aforementioned #725, you even saw some points against Battousai.

We know

now

that we were not in LyLo D3, but we could not be that sure of it on D3 itself - actually, that very fact was one of the bigger topics of discussion on D3, I would say. So waiting with my vote was the very "playing it save" strategy that I was missing in Jester's play. And I did see points against Battousai, but #725 also shows his relative position: he is lower on the list, and he did not receive a FOS anymore.

Your points against SA I responded to as saying they were newb-town-tells and you responded with:

However, what *is* making me a bit uneasy about TNE/SA is the fact that all other people who acted "obviously" anti-town (RC, mozsuggs, Earwig) turned up vanilla.

You've been here enough to know that anti-town != scum, so this line is bullshit coming from you. It's on the edge of WIFOM and is a shitty reason for suspecting anyone. The logic in that reads: "X person was obviously anti-town, and turned up vanilla, so person Y who is obviously pro-town I should suspect as scum." You're a better player than that.

Then you post your #743 but don't bother posting WHAT we have against him; you just feed right off of OGML's posts and vote opportunistically. It feels like you sat on the fence long enough to find an escape route before you voted and OGML miraculously gave you one.

First off, the Y in your quoted logic (TNE/SA) was also obviously anti-town, not pro-town (I think that was just a typo). Second, I do have my bad experiences with scum who use anti-town play to hide behind other townspeople with bigger anti-town play. Also, TNE's case was not pure anti-town play, but we also had his lying-incident from D1 speaking against him.

I don't think you should hold against me my reciting of OGML's main reason for voting SA (the D1 lying/newbie event). In fact, OGML himself repeated this one from discussions before, and frankly, back on D1, I was the first one to point out TNE's inconcsistency in #254 (Ecto and SlySly had voted him before, but for different reasons). What should be merited to OGML, though, is that he brought this issue back out of forgotenness into the current discussion (which then influenced my decisions in #725, of course).

[Nyktorion]

So this also means, you have no more comments to my last answers to you in #800?

[Nyktorion]

There's nothing in his 800 that isn't a direct repeat of "points" from his 769 and 788. He repeats the same bad arguments, ignores my responses to them, and fails to acknowledge it when I clearly expose his bad logic. So, I have no intention of responding to his 800. If I were going to, I would have already in my 804.

Yes, there were several things to which I answered similarly (in particular, I had to reference #725 rather often), but I do think that all instances of thee answers were fitting. In fact, when writing all my arguments, I did sometimes get the feeling that said #725 was rather overlooked, so that's probably how this repetition came to be.

The only new thing he says in that entire post is that he thinks placing a vote sooner rather than later is "hasty." Apparently, he's very comfortable with a repeat of what happened at the end of D3.

Of course, I do not want the end of D3 to repeat itself. However, I don't think that the main contributor to that situation was the late voting, but rather the very low activity during the deadline and the fact that 4 out of 7 people did not vote "later rather than sooner", but had no vote at all at the ed of the day. You might be right that it may also help to start voting a little sooner (I am actually contemplating of casting my first actual vote somewhen during this weekend), but my point stands that voting already about 1.5 weeks before deadline is much too early still stands.

My obvious preference for today's lynch is obviously still Jester. As second person on my current list, Battousai would of course also be an option, but I am less certain about him than about Jester. There are some points against him though: Mizzy's #817 and my #725 (again ) show some points against him, and while it is nice that he is defending me in my current situation, it also has a smell of being "too good to be true". After the events of D3, this would be a plausible curse of action for a BattouScum, though: it does strengthen the idea of a Bat-Nyk link, and therefore sets me up for a D4 or D5 (after Bat's death) lynch, and would draw attention away from his actual scumbuddy Jester.

One question to Mizzy: I have never heard of this "common denominator theory". Is it something more generally used, which I should therefore remember, or did you just introduce the name?

[Nyktorion]

I think it is not surprising that my prime lynch candidate is still Jester. Also, there is no common denominator Bat for me, since I am very sure that the scumpair is not Bat-Nyk

Vote: Jester

[Nyktorion]

So who was the scum then? OGML/Mizzy, from the last few posts? Or OGML/Bat?

[Nyktorion]

Ah right - I just became irritated by Bats fingercrossing after things were already decided.

[Nyktorion]

Ouch... congratulations, OGML and Bat. I fear this game went down when I did what I did at the end of D3, and Jester and I started tearing each other apart as a consequence Too bad that I did not think that the other "opportunistic TNE/SA voter" could have been really opportunistic scum, too.

Now that I see the situation, it seems painful how close a scum lynch could have been with Bat. And I think that even then, things would have been pretty tough if scum were smart and NKed Mizzy, leaving OGML, Jester and myself for D5.