Open 679: Jungle Oligarchy (Game OVER)

[Aristophanes]

Okay,
VOTE: Hikari

Ümlaüt, I hope it's nothing serious! <3

[Infinity 324]

Have you read up yet ari? If so, thoughts?

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Damn, Dave has a new avi

[davesaz]

Please welcome Aj the Epic who replaces Riley Cake!

[Aj The Epic]

Hello! Summary as I read in?

[Aristophanes]

Have you read up yet ari? If so, thoughts?

Not really. I'm on it tomorrow though maybe. The night took so long to end that I lost a lot of motivation here.

Hello! Summary as I read in?

About half the game is new. Welcome!

[Aj The Epic]

Cool. Who was setup to be killed last night, and what were the thoughts on all three? I know QuickTranscedence got killed, but I still would like consensus opinions on those given as a public list to give an idea of what kinda scum group we're dealing with.

[Infinity 324]

Ok so hans, a werewolf, was lynched d1 and grey was the main person who pushed it.

As for the kill list, it had ari's predecessor as well as kop's predecessor. Ari is probably not mafia but might be werewolf, and I townread lucca.

[Aj The Epic]

So the objective today should be to completely neuter the werewolf team then because the kills can't come through. My only reservation is that we lack an ability for us to get hints from the night list if we actually stop the werewolves this early.

However: my base assumption is as such: None of the mafia would be on that list N1, and that the list would be selected in such a way to try and get the behavioral style of the werewolf team (do they try and hunt scum via the list, given the chance, or are they willing to just kill town). My assumptions before hearing anything was that we'd see a basic conf-town, and 2 mildly scummy players because that would avoid any conflict if the second werewolf was put on the list to allow a true identification of their behavior.

From what I'm reading thus far, it looks like the werewolf bit on the most town player, as so far I'm not seeing Lucca and Mattblackguy as these huge town powerhouses.

It's a lot of assumptions but I'd like to have a discussion about behavioral decisions made here by mafia/werewolves to get a possible understanding of the werewolf in particular. Killing their ability to night kill d2 would be just impossibly huge.

[Infinity 324]

I don't think the werewolf would expect mafia to be on the list early, nor would I expect the mafia to expect the werewolf would expect that. I think the people on the list are probably just the top 3 players the mafia wants dead.

[Hiraki]

@Infinity

Ok but you can't put me in a Werewolf pile because I posted a defense of Hans after he scum claimed. There are hundred of better reasons for me to make a post over night rather than post about it during the time. Either Werewolf me did it for credit (which is dodgy at best) or I made a mistake. It would not surprise me if you thought that highly of your abilities and as little as mine, Infinity.

The fact that you'd think that town edits their posts more than scum is absurd. It's NAI and scum do it more than town.

Join date really doesn't mean anything for VI purposes, you're proof of that.

[Aj The Epic]

I don't think the werewolf would expect mafia to be on the list early, nor would I expect the mafia to expect the werewolf would expect that. I think the people on the list are probably just the top 3 players the mafia wants dead.

See, but here's why this is important: We either say the two left CANNOT BE MAFIA, or that mafia was willing to take that risk N1. I think you've already made the first assumption with Ari, so I don't think we're missing that part too heavily. We do have to deal with a layer of WIFOM in the fact that mafia could assume this, and figure out each player's own personal risk in a situation like this, but it still is really nice to have a possibility to soft clear two players.

[Hiraki]

I don't like Ari's entrance either but I am biased.

[Aj The Epic]

Ari also isn't a risky player as scum iirc. I've heard his general meta is 'don't post as scum, posts a fair bit as town'.

[Infinity 324]

@Infinity

Ok but you can't put me in a Werewolf pile because I posted a defense of Hans after he scum claimed. There are hundred of better reasons for me to make a post over night rather than post about it during the time. Either Werewolf me did it for credit (which is dodgy at best) or I made a mistake. It would not surprise me if you thought that highly of your abilities and as little as mine, Infinity.

The fact that you'd think that town edits their posts more than scum is absurd. It's NAI and scum do it more than town.

Join date really doesn't mean anything for VI purposes, you're proof of that.

The problem isn't that you defended Hans. The problem is that your progression made no sense, you went from a strong scumread to town with almost nothing.

Town doesn't edit their posts more...but they edit out useless stuff more whereas scum would likely keep it in order to look like they're doing something.

The discredit is...lol

[Infinity 324]

I don't think the werewolf would expect mafia to be on the list early, nor would I expect the mafia to expect the werewolf would expect that. I think the people on the list are probably just the top 3 players the mafia wants dead.

See, but here's why this is important: We either say the two left CANNOT BE MAFIA, or that mafia was willing to take that risk N1. I think you've already made the first assumption with Ari, so I don't think we're missing that part too heavily. We do have to deal with a layer of WIFOM in the fact that mafia could assume this, and figure out each player's own personal risk in a situation like this, but it still is really nice to have a possibility to soft clear two players.

It's just not worth it imo, especially when people are hunting for werewolves. The risk of getting one of your teammates NKed too high compared to the possible benefit of maybe clearing a player or two only when the werewolf is dead.

[Hiraki]

You are so masterful, I should just give up now!!!!!

1) Town doesn't do ANYTHING more than scum in terms of editing. That is just a stupid tell. I was making a catch-up post after REPLACING IN.

2) I called him VI. That's not saying "oh! He is town now! Don't you see how townie he is????" - VI implies that he IS scummy but he will flip town.

3) There was no discredit.

4) I'm glad you talked about the point I made where apparently I'm just stupid scum for deciding to post something that is incriminating me right now - oh wait! Doesn't fit your agenda if you thought about that too hard!

[Aj The Epic]

On a sidenote I now fully realize who "bubbles" was in fucking The Oxford Bubbles hydra...

@Infinity, I agree. However, it's a case of risk so it really IS dependent on how much a risk taker said scum is. I'd expect a player like Grey or Transcend to consider a decision like that. I definitely would consider it, though I'm not sure if I would make the call to have a scum partner there. Obviously Transcend's flipped town but it DOES depend on the risk profile of those who are scum.

[Infinity 324]

You are so masterful, I should just give up now!!!!!

1) Town doesn't do ANYTHING more than scum in terms of editing. That is just a stupid tell. I was making a catch-up post after REPLACING IN.

2) I called him VI. That's not saying "oh! He is town now! Don't you see how townie he is????" - VI implies that he IS scummy but he will flip town.

3) There was no discredit.

4) I'm glad you talked about the point I made where apparently I'm just stupid scum for deciding to post something that is incriminating me right now - oh wait! Doesn't fit your agenda if you thought about that too hard!

1. Literally half of your post was useless because it talked about hans after he was already dead. Again, you could've easily edited it out but you wanted to seem like you were doing something.

2. Even with that weird definition it makes no sense that you had him as a strong scumread but flipped him to VI with the reasoning you gave.

3. The last line was definitely a discredit. I'm not saying town doesn't discredit, but yeah.

4. I didn't see that point and...why can't you be stupid scum? If you're talking about the hans read, you could've felt the need to justify it unnecessarily--anyway, it's not something that comes from town.

[davesaz]

Prodding BTD6_maker and Darklyn.

[Spade_Ace]

PoE leaves Spade

No it fking doesn't.

This was Umlaut's list: Lucca, me, you and Fred.

You eliminate Lucca by saying that YOU DONT THINK he would make such a mistake. YOU don't think. Fine, lets just say that is part of your thought process.

Next you eliminate Fred by saying

I think Fred is scum but not werewolf.

125 and 127 are not people on the same team unless they're both ballsy players.

You first ASSUME both of us are DEFINITELY scum and then you ASSUME Fred cannot be werewolf (based on?) and that we cannot be on the same team. Well that then just leaves me as WW. Brilliant. You promised me a "Most Logical" argument and this is the MOST LOGICAL POE I have ever seen on MS.

And regarding your coaching argument.
Of course I coached my WW partner. You are so masterful. I should just give up now.

[Spade_Ace]

I haven't read the entire thread, but the pages I did read, Lucca was acting scummy towards the whole Hans business, and I was intending to wanting Luccas lynched once I got up to speed. Then it dawned on me, I replaced him. So that changes everything from what I was intending to do.

Now that I realise the situation I found myself in, in regards to how scummy my previous predecessor put this slot in, I will happily engage with you and show you that your wrong, even if that means you successfully getting me roped, but I'd rather not go down that road as it will leave you no further forward.

@Kop can you tell us what are the things you found scummy about Lucca??

[Spade_Ace]

Hey ari, any thoughts on the game???

Spade, what should I feel things about? I'll look at the things you recommend.

Regarding the lynch list, the flips, who you think Hans partner could be based on his ISO. Anything.

[Spade_Ace]

Sidenote: Hiraki's and Infinity's interactions feels fake AF. It resembles the one Hiraki and I had in Micro 672. We both were scum there.

They both probably are mafia.

[Spade_Ace]

Mafia was dumb for listing QT.

Even stranger was QT being shot.

I just don't get either of those decisions at all.

Edit

Maybe cos, one of lucca or Ari is WW. The WW would have then been forced to choose between the remaining two. And so chose QT.

Or it could be a new player who didnt read the game.