Newbie 1779 | Spring | Endgame

[ThinkBig]

I don't like how quickly the wagon on mastina formed and don't like Alisae's jump from me to mastina. Mastina's frustration feels town. Masina/Alisae is probably not a team.

[ThinkBig]

Will post more after work.

[mastina]

I realize these are long posts, but 1222, 1223 (a summary of 1222 essentially if you want to save on reading), and 1224 are all important posts.

But they all hold true.

Give me a non-"but pre-flip associatives are bad" answer to:
-Any of the mastina scumteams and why you think my logic there does not hold.
-Any of the scumteams I have written off as impossible (DogWatch-ChrisOrnie/DogWatch-oldwino/ThinkBig-Alisae), and why you think my logic there does not hold.
-Any of the scumteams I have as possible which you think are impossible. (I would actually love to narrow down my scumteams so this would be most appreciated!)
-Any of the scumteams I have as less likely (ThinkBig-DogWatch/ThinkBig-oldwino) which you think shouldn't be so unlikely, and why you disagree with my logic on why they are improbable.

Because if you can't, then yes they are true. The burden of proof has shifted to YOU. I have laid out:
-Why I hold interactions to be important
-The benefit of interactions
-Which interactions I find impossible, and why
-Which interactions I feel are improbable, and why
-Which interactions I feel are probable, and why

...So if your response is just, "but pre-flip associatives are bad!", then I think you can see why I am going to look at you and go, ":neutral: Uh-huh.

Sure

they are."

[mastina]

(For what it's worth, I don't know how much mhsmith agrees or disagrees with me, but in the dead thread if he's commenting there he should be able to back me up here in that what I've said is more true than not in his opinion. I don't think he'd agree with everything I've said. But he should back me on MOST of what I've said because damn fucking straight I know what I am saying is true because that is experience gained from literally 200-300 games on this site alone. The place for logic in games is in dealing with interactions and noting their possibility or lack thereof. All other applications of logic are secondary.)

[mastina]

ChrisOrmie is basically sheeping Alisae like I suspected he would, lulz

^That.

[ThinkBig]

ChrisOrmie is basically sheeping Alisae like I suspected he would, lulz

^That.

Where is the sleeping? Him sheeping would have been him voting me, not him voting you and Formica new wagon

[mastina]

Scum can open the game up and decide who they want on any given day if you remove the BP ability. Leaving the tracker on the board is a terrible move though, I'd expect that role to be taken out of the game as it's the best way Town can find Scum.

And what, pray tell, does it tell you that the fucking IC who has been preaching theory and optimal play all game long, would if scum have left said tracker alive?

That is: if you suppose it is true that leaving the tracker alive was absolutely terrible play, and you also hold it true that I as the IC know what is a good play and what is a terrible play to make as scum...

...How the fuck do you come to the conclusion it is possible I would be scum?

Possible WIFOM with experienced scum trying to look like newbScum

I have gone on record to say, on multiple occasions: "fuck WIFOM". Site search sucks at picking it up, but you may peruse this selection to confirm this is true. My stance has, rather consistently, been that WIFOM kills do not happen. EVER. They don't. There's always a reason outside WIFOM for a kill.

if Mastina is scum then her sporadic absences may mean a newbie partner might have done it without her.

I post sporadically, however, I log in every single day and check my private topics every single day. This means that if a private topic which is locked is opened for the night, I would see it. I can also easily verify I was online during the night phase: Wed Mar 15, 2017 1:13 am was the time the flip happened.
Fri Mar 17, 2017 11:01 am was the time night ended. About here in my post history across the site, you can see the MYRIAD of times I was logged in and posting across the site. I was online during the night. Therefore, I would have had a chance to submit a kill.

[mastina]

do we actually know icy was attacked? could there have been no night action at all?

townslip and even if this isn't a townslip I don't see why scum would push this narative. Occam's Razor deduces that Icy was attacked rather then Scum pulling a no-kill gambit.

do we actually know icy was attacked? could there have been no night action at all?

No kill is bad for scum, and mod said BP wouldn't know if they'd been targeted or even if their 1-shotBP was gone. Pretty sure scum went after Icy last night.

While it is certainly a probability that there was in fact a shot at the BP last night, I find it down-right hilarious that these two players felt the absolute NEED to insist on this being true back to back to one another using near-identical wording.

[Alisae]

VOTE: mastina
If I can't get the Grey slot, I'll go get mastina.

You didn't note 'L1." TB had to do it for you. Makes you look more suspicious and him less suspicious, unless Mastina is his scum buddy and he wanted to make sure no one hammered without realizing it. Now I am alone voting TB/Grey. With Mastina and Alisae as my next two scum suspicions. Around and around we go!

Nah that's NAI. If anything, me not saying L-1 or intent majority of the time is just a really bad habit I need to break.

[mastina]

Theory question

: Is it better to lynch a player who is more likely to flip scum or a player who's flip would be more informative to town?

This might surprise you, but.
...I don't have an answer to this.

I know, right?
mastina, the IC who prides herself on her teaching above all else, can't answer a theory question!

But it's true. I literally have no clue myself.
Rather.
It'd be more accurate to say my answer changes literally every game.
One game, I will hold the stance, "fuck information, a scum lynch is a scum lynch".
The next game, I will reverse around and say "fuck that lynch; I know it's probably on scum but right now we need information".

It's something I wish I knew which was objectively better myself, but.
I don't.

I really don't.

The best answer I can give is maybe that it is circumstantially-dependent: in some games it might be better to just fucking lynch the obvscum player and deal with finding information later.

In other games, lynching the obvscum player first directly leads to the scum winning because the town neglected the chance to gather the information necessary for the lynch on obvscum to actually help them.

It's a valid question, and one I think I will make an MD thread about once this game is over. (I can't make it during this game for hopefully obvious reasons.) I genuinely, legitimately, have no answer to give you.

I have explained why Alisae gives more information if Alisae flips town than ChrisOrmie would if ChrisOrmie flipped town.
I have also explained a large part of my beef with Alisae, but also why I feel that ChrisOrmie's slot is the scummiest in the game and far more likely to be scum than Alisae.

But I'm not going to pretend I know what to do in here when I don't.
My

best guess

is that lynching Alisae is more important. (Not to mention, more viable, as there is an existing wagon there.)
I cannot say for certain if this is true, because even I don't have a firm grasp there.

[mastina]

Um...I don't see Chris sheeping Alisae. Am I missing something here?

Look at the names both players are pushing and just as importantly the REASONS and LOGIC behind said pushes.

The names have significant overlap, and the reasoning is nigh-identical.

[ThinkBig]

@mastina, thanks for that information. I did some browsing in the archives and found that day 1 scum lynches were more likely to result in a scum win than a town win.

[mastina]

There's also something to be said for the ulti/pieg/lemon slot being replaced AGAIN.

I would agree with this if this wasn't a newbie game. In Newbie 1746, for example, there was a slot that had 3 people replace out. That slot flipped town jailkeeper.

Key differences: Sertorious was replaced prior to the game's start: siteflake. deadalus1 was replaced out without posting: siteflake. AndHar failed to pick up a prod: siteflake.

Here, Ulti--under PRESSURE--

requested

replacement.
pieg

requested

replacement. (Albeit this one I think is null.)
lemonator--under PRESSURE--

requested

replacement. (Near as I can tell, anyway. It seems too short of a duration for lemonator to have failed to pick up a prod: the mod has announced most prods, did not announce one for lemonator, lemonator last posted on Friday, and the mod was searching for a replacement on Sunday without explanation.)

Siteflaking is null.
Requesting replacement with no justification is--while not a strong indicator of scum--at the very least, sketchy coming from newbies. (This is a newbie-specific tell.)

[mastina]

I will say that it is quite telling that he says that lurking is anti-town behavior and then requests a replacement.

Not to mention the content lemonator was giving--rather, lack thereof. Active lurking is an even worse form of lurking than actual lurking is. And while lemonator had 20+ posts...not one of them was really filled with anything you can call content. I.e., lemonator was active lurking.

[mastina]

Your game play is questionable. but your excuses are worse

That was a sitewide post, and posted word-for-word in two other games. (Go check my sitewide posts if you don't believe me, because it's fucking there and would take you literally ten seconds to verify it wasn't just in here I said that.)

Still think it was a fucking excuse?

Like I said.
Don't. fucking. question. Real. life.

[mastina]

i like his posts so far, but he's in my biggest scum slot.

I've given you the answer on this already!

Good scum will make good posts, just as true as bad town will make bad posts.
A slot posting good content doesn't make the slot town.
A slot posting bad content doesn't make the slot scum.

What makes a slot scum is them posting content which has a clear scum mindset attached (one I have laid out as to where ChrisOrmie has shown it).
What makes a slot town is them posting content which has a clear town mindset attached. (I mean I could point out why my mindset has been town but fuck that, I don't really do defense. Not like that anyway.)

[mastina]

VOTE: mastina
If I can't get the Grey slot, I'll go get mastina.

Hey Alisae.
You placed this L-1 vote, yes?

You still would have pointed out it was L-1.

So are you a fucking hypocrite, or just opportunistic scum willing to drop literally everything about Grey just because it's convenient?

[ThinkBig]

So are you a fucking hypocrite, or just opportunistic scum willing to drop literally everything about Grey just because it's convenient?

^^ This. So much this.

I really hate how Alisae's wagon got derailed and how your wagon got to L-1 in less than 4 hours.

[Alisae]

VOTE: mastina
If I can't get the Grey slot, I'll go get mastina.

Hey Alisae.
You placed this L-1 vote, yes?

You still would have pointed out it was L-1.

So are you a fucking hypocrite, or just opportunistic scum willing to drop literally everything about Grey just because it's convenient?

No, I'm saying TB does that. AKA that's apart of his meta.
I usually don't do that stuff.

[ThinkBig]

VOTE: mastina
If I can't get the Grey slot, I'll go get mastina.

Hey Alisae.
You placed this L-1 vote, yes?

You still would have pointed out it was L-1.

So are you a fucking hypocrite, or just opportunistic scum willing to drop literally everything about Grey just because it's convenient?

No, I'm saying TB does that. AKA that's apart of his meta.
I usually don't do that stuff.

1. I put you at L-2. Not L-1.
2. I really hate using meta because it can be easily manipulated and exploited.

[DogWatch]

UNVOTE: mastina
until I can sort through these last couple pages

[mastina]

Mastina is at L-1

I would like to point out: if I were scum, I would have a scumbuddy.

I literally wrote the fucking BOOK on

not

bussing.
No, seriously. Read that article. That article, the one titled "Stop Bussing!", was made by me, mastina. This is not the only place I have voiced that opinion. As in, I have written quite a fucking LOT on the subject, outlying just how stupid it is to bus and exactly why you should

not

be doing it.

Automatically, that basically rules out ChrisOrmie, Dogwatch, and Alisae as viable scumbuddies.
It also largely rules out oldwino, who would have no hesitation to hammer me.
So then!

Who am I scum with?
Darklyn is confirmed town. (So's Icy, but Icy is included in the above.)
That literally leaves the one.
And ONLY.
Possible scumteam with me on it as ThinkBig.

And in all this time.
In all this argument.
Nobody has yet to give a counter to mhsmith's point:

I don't really think it's mastina/grey

, but that's largely due to an independent TR I have on her (if this whole ISO of hers was an intentional act as a scum IC, just pretending to play really badly, I'm going to be super upset - if it's a town IC thing, mistakes happen, but if it's intentional I just get really bothered by that).

Also I do think that Grey's "I think smith is the IC" bit largely cleared mastina if he is in fact scum; I just feel like that's the kind of derp thing that's pretty unlikely if he's buddies with her

(which, you know, was an actual substantiated read that I put energy into thinking about for the "but smith hasn't been solvey enough" crowd )

Even if you address that.

Ask yourselves the following question:
I have been nominated for the Don Corelone Scummy (as in, Most Cunning Manipulation) at least once if not more.
I have been known for some of the most notorious scum victories in popular mafiascum site lore.
I have written the book on good scumplay. Three of them, actually! (Linked above.)
So ask yourselves.

Do you honestly believe that I as scum. Am so incompetent. That I would allow myself to leave one and only one possible scumteam in existence? That I would allow the town to so deliberately narrow it down to the correct choice?

I am not scum because it is simply not viable, not possible, for me to be scum on any scumteam. That's literally all the proof you should need, though if you want more I can point out how there was a reversal: Alisae literally went from L-1...

Vote Count 2.06

Alisae

(4): mastina, Darklyn, Dogwatch, ThinkBig

(L-1)

ThinkBig

(2): Alisae, oldwino

mastina

(2): ChrisOrmie, Icy

...To having ME at L-1...

Vote Count 2.07

mastina

(3): ChrisOrmie, Icy, Dogwatch

Alisae

(3): mastina, Darklyn, ThinkBig

ThinkBig

(2): Alisae, oldwino

VOTE: mastina
If I can't get the Grey slot, I'll go get mastina.

...In the span of three fucking hours. THREE HOURS. You went from having an Alisae wagon at L-1. To having a mastina wagon at L-1. Three fucking hours. To have a reversal in the game.

If that doesn't tell you my wagon is driven by scum, I don't know WHAT will.

[ThinkBig]

If that doesn't tell you my wagon is driven by scum, I don't know WHAT will.

I completely agree with this. The way Chris derailed Alisae's wagon and Alisae was quick to hop on to the wagon gives even more credibility to an Alisae/Chris scum team.

[mastina]

She said when I asked her about her change of heart on RC (RC was town), (Alisae Scum) that she needed to reevaluate her game while all the time seemingly unwilling to reevaluate Greys position. (Grey is town)

(Literally right below this quotes me reevaluating my position on Grey)

*cough*
You can't have it both ways, Icy. You can't be suspicious of me for not being willing to reevaluate my position on Grey AND be suspicious of me when I actually fucking do reevaluate my position on Grey. You, as conftown, I absolutely get to call out on being a hypocrite. Though I suppose I should answer.

The slot is what matters not the player in it!!!

Yes. The slot is what matters, not the player in it. That is EXACTLY why I am not giving ThinkBig an indefinite pass: because while Grey remains my strongest townread, he is not a slot infallibly town beyond all reproach. He is the player I found most likely to be town. He is the player who moved to be my strongest townread midway into D1. He is also a player who I have less than half a dozen games' experience with, and of those, only one or two are scum. I cannot claim to read him with perfect accuracy. I can and do HAVE a read on him. It is strongest town, the player who I am currently most willing to call locktown, the player I am most willing to gambit on being town.

However, I also have about equal experience with ThinkBig. If ThinkBig acts a way I expect him to act as town (I think he is), then that townread is augmented. If ThinkBig acts in a way I expect him to as scum (I don't think he has), then that townread would be thrown into question. (There's also the fact that ThinkBig could easily have hammered me if he were scum, and receive virtually no flak for it, so. That, too.)

As a result, I made my stance clear. If ThinkBig, a holder of the slot, acted in a way which I thought made him town, then the townread I had on the slot would be further vindicated. If ThinkBig, a holder of the slot, acted in a way which I thought made him scum, I would then need to reevaluate my townread on Grey and see if it were still valid. If I felt it were valid, I would hold the townread true and assume I didn't have a good read on ThinkBig. If I felt it were invalid, then I would assume I didn't have a good read on Grey and that my read on ThinkBig was more accurate. This is not a hard concept to grasp.

A slot does not get an indefinite free pass, least of all in circumstances such as these. Were ThinkBig to have subbed in on D1, I probably would have given him the free pass. But this is D2 with no scum dead and no obvious leads aside from speculation. As a result, I literally cannot afford to hand out a free pass unconditionally. Just...circumstantially.

1) She has been doing a pretty good job of explaining things, but let the Dark Tracker thing slide by without comment. Had he tracked anyone else you know she would have been all over that.

You assume much. I haven't commented on the tracker thing because there's no need to. Darklyn is both right and wrong. It

does

reduce the chance I am scum. It also does not

eliminate

the chance I am scum. With two scum alive, there's a 50% chance of catching the killer, so there's a 50% chance that a no-track result would indicate a player is town. This result can be used to augment analysis, namely, pairs, and who the likely killer in a given scumteam is:

Who is the most likely to submit a kill in a mastina-Grey scumteam?
Who is the most likely to submit a kill in a mastina-oldwino scumteam? (The answer is mastina, eliminating this team.)
Who is the most likely to submit a kill in a mastina-RC/Alisae scumteam? (The answer is more likely mastina, eliminating this team.)
Who is the most likely to submit a kill in a mastina-DogWatch scumteam?
Who is the most likely to submit a kill in a mastina-lemonator scumteam? (The answer is 100% mastina because lemonator was basically everyone's secondary suspect.)

These are simple things that go without saying. The track results reduce the number of viable scumteams I could be on from five to two. As a result, it reduces the odds I am scum significantly...but also does not eliminate them altogether.

2) It fits that she would have taken a shot at me, and let Dark live.

It doesn't fit because you being shot would fucking increase your confidence. I am RENOWNED for my ability to exploit paranoia and doubt. You living without being shot at would make people think your reads were wrong...and that's especially helpful if "people" also includes YOURSELF.

By shooting at you, I give you confidence that your reads are right.
By shooting at Darklyn, I prevent him from gaining a result which would call his reads into doubt.

Now, if you were a VT, your point would be valid. I can and will shoot the players most suspicious of me when I think they will die. I know town players don't do NKA. The problem is, you're a fucking bulletproof. So by failing to nightkill you, when your slot so helpfully claimed, I am announcing to you that you were onto something.

Ergo, I wouldn't kill you. I'd kill Darklyn. He's the superior kill all-around.

[mastina]

cant keep up anymore
thinking of replacing out

This is why I generally recommend not playing in too many games at a time. (...Do as I say, not as I do. I am a moron. I am also an addict. Also, I am also basically a freeloader. I work four hours a week, on Sunday. I am busy for about four hours on Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday nights. I am restricted by family night on Friday Nights. I am otherwise usually free to be online and only restricted by what hours I need to sleep in. Meaning, I can devote theoretically 20 hours in a single day to the game of mafia. I sincerely doubt you have that much time on your hands, which means you should probably not play as much as I do.)

But, I would encourage you to stay, to stick around. I'd consider it a favor, even. While I mean no offense to oldwino, he has a playstyle which is basically foreign to me--I can maybe give him tips or tricks, but I can't really

connect

to him. You are the only other original newbie in the game, and you, I CAN connect to. You I see a ton of potential in. (oldwino could have the potential, but his playstyle being what it is, I lack the ability to tell if he has a ton of potential or not.)

You might not hold the strongest of groundings in the game

right now

. But I genuinely think, if you stick around, you could be a big name in the game. I think you have a huge amount of potential. And I realize it's selfish to ask you to stick around when you're having difficulties (I normally recommend a player does what they need to do, even if that's replacing out), but I really am hoping to see you stick around and I think that you need this game in order to do so.