Open 679: Jungle Oligarchy (Game OVER)

[Spade_Ace]

@AJ I agree with most of what you have said. But, I think the chances of mafia being in the hit list is low, though probable.

It's a lot of assumptions but I'd like to have a discussion about behavioral decisions made here by mafia/werewolves to get a possible understanding of the werewolf in particular. Killing their ability to night kill d2 would be just impossibly huge.

Yes, it is hard to find the remaining WW. Any discussion you want to have in particular??

[Spade_Ace]

Ari also isn't a risky player as scum iirc. I've heard his general meta is 'don't post as scum, posts a fair bit as town'.

Yes I too have heard that as Scum he usually lurks. Which is why I wanted to know his thoughts on the game.

[-Grey-]

But, I think the chances of mafia being in the hit list is low, though probable.

Chances can't be both low and probable.

[Spade_Ace]

But, I think the chances of mafia being in the hit list is low, though probable.

Chances can't be both low and probable.

As in low probability?? Am i wrong? Sorry, English isn't my first language.

[Hiraki]

Really not ok with Spade's toxicity toward me.

[-Grey-]

But, I think the chances of mafia being in the hit list is low, though probable.

Chances can't be both low and probable.

As in low probability?? Am i wrong? Sorry, English isn't my first language.

I think you meant low,

but possible

.

[Spade_Ace]

Really not ok with Spade's toxicity toward me.

Am i coming off as toxic. I apologize then. I hold you in high regard as a player, esp after out game together. Am trying to apply as much pressure on you as possible.

[Hiraki]

Fine, lets just say that is part of your thought process.

Yes - please don't start shouting at me when

I

talk about

my

thought process as if I am the Pope. It really doesn't help my read on you when you're acting like this way to my accusation - someone who you already think as scum. If I am scum, then the overreactions are not necessary. Similarly:

Am trying to apply as much pressure on you as possible.

There's no reason to "apply pressure" on someone you think and have proof is scum. You should be convincing others with doubts at this point. I don't feel that you are doing that.

You first ASSUME both of us are DEFINITELY scum and then you ASSUME Fred cannot be werewolf (based on?) and that we cannot be on the same team.

Based off of posts 125 and 127 which I reference in my post. You could've easily clarified this but are deciding to shout at me and also add the question in there as a just in case.

You're fabricating a read on me and it's not hard to see based off of how you're talking to me. It starts with:

"WHAT??? WHAT DO YOU MEAN? THAT'S NOT POSSIBLE - except for this tiny thing!"

The worst offense is that you have doubts in your mind and questions that you want me to answer while also accusing me of those sorts of deals. While Infinity's logic is VI, at least he's not asking fundamental questions at the same time. That's the difference between your two attacks. -Grey- is just doing his own thing and I hope he will stop playing around soon. I think Ari just voted with the top wagon and I am eagerly awaiting her catch-up.

You promised me a "Most Logical" argument and this is the MOST LOGICAL POE I have ever seen on MS.

This is also just useless and not needed.

I'd like to re-quote this, once again:

"Based on reading Umlaut's 934, Spade is the most logical partner (TO ME)."

Additionally, just so you stop coming after me in the current fashion (which is borderline making me want to leave), I'll remind you that you asked for my thought process.

Okay, To You, how am i the most logical partner? The word 'logical' means you had a structured thought process which led you to believe that. Am asking for that thought process.

So don't start calling me names when I give you exactly what you asked for and then you start deciding that you really didn't want it in the first place.

They both probably are mafia.

This is the interesting part when placed in reference to:

@Umlaut I had a scumlean on your slot but I like your 934 and its followup 938. But your vote is misplaced. Am town.

If that's the case, what did you like about 934 and 938? Is there something that you disagree with? Usually when you have a scumlean on a slot and then it changes to town, it's not just because they put in effort.

[Aristophanes]

Ari also isn't a risky player as scum iirc. I've heard his general meta is 'don't post as scum, posts a fair bit as town'.

Yes I too have heard that as Scum he usually lurks. Which is why I wanted to know his thoughts on the game.

You are both correct. I've just been busy and quite honestly a little depressed recently. It'll pass and I'll come back in here in full swing, but meh.

[BTD6_maker]

I have been busy over the last few days.

At this stage I am thinking about Omega and Infinity (the players, I am not doing ordinal analysis at the moment). It seemed from yesterday that Omega is very likely Mafia, but I have not seen much from Infinity that supports it.

Infinity, what do you think of your predecessor's push on Hans and the ensuing 1v1?

[Infinity 324]

...it was a good job by my predecessor

Don't know what else you're looking for

[Infinity 324]

I mainly skimmed over my predecessors posts anyway

[Aristophanes]

Inb4 Amished Tell

[Kop]

VOTE: Spade

I find him more likely to flip WW over Hiraki personally.

[Infinity 324]

Why?

[Kop]

Gut feeling, something isn't sitting right with me with some of his posts. Will look properly again after dinner.

[Infinity 324]

I think both are scum, I'm just not sure if they're werewolf or mafia

[Umlaut]

I'm still sort of half-following-along, just wanted to pop in and say:

• Granted that I'm not the target, I'm not seeing the toxicity in Spade's posts that Hiraki is.
  
• I
  do
  feel like Hiraki and Spade are reading one another as uncharitably as possible. In particular I feel like all of Hiraki's "clarifying" looks a lot like question-dodging (though I'm pretty sure he's not a wolf so there's no reason to pursue this in detail today).

[Umlaut]

Also:

At this stage I am thinking about Omega and Infinity (the players, I am not doing ordinal analysis at the moment).

This guy here.

[davesaz]

Votecount

2.3

Spade_Ace (3) : Umlaut, Hiraki, Kop
Hiraki (3) : -Grey-, Infinity 324, Aristophanes

Not Voting (5) : Spade_Ace, BTD6_maker, Lil Uzi Vert, Darklyn, Aj the Epic

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 2 ends Sun April 2 1030 MST (UTC-7) (expired on 2017-04-02 10:30:00)

[-Grey-]

Hiraki wagon is best wagon.

Of course, I'm only saying this so my post technically has content in it.

[Hiraki]

Remember when you denied having an SR on me and then you decided to act cool and reveal that you had a SR on me pages later?

[Infinity 324]

though I'm pretty sure he's not a wolf

Why?

[Umlaut]

though I'm pretty sure he's not a wolf

Why?

Honestly it's because I forgot he was on the potentially-a-wolf list. Need to rethink this now.

[Aj The Epic]

Lucca could easily be Hans' buddy.

The fighting between the two feels theatrical and in post 424 he asks LuV to talk him out of his read, claiming Lucca feels conflicted about the read. Lucca claimed he thought Hans was scum when he entered the game and really saw no natural progression to that. He sat in second scum area from Hans, which is exactly where I'd expect him to sit in this gambit (shows Hans cares enough to scum read, but not enough to vote: Perfect distancing tactic for someone not going to live long).

And he changed off Hans in one of the most unconvincing switches all game to Tea (post 593). The real issue here is Grey was having a HELL of a time getting traction on Hans at this point, with QT hard defending and Lucca signaling he wasn't interested in being there. But Lucca's reason to switch just sucked and he never openly admitted to TR'ing Hans, which seems to be the more obvious reason for the switch anyways. Fucking loads of posturing and signaling by Lucca that makes his moves unnatural.

There IS a factor of prior experiences together via both being scum that's rather intangible in actions, but I do think Lucca is a prime candidate for one of the remaining scum slots here.

Moving forwards, it seems I'm not unique in seeing Lucca's actions as questionable. Actually, from this re-read, I'm fairly confident mafia was trying to list the werewolf to make sure the kills they want have a higher % of going through, since Matt/QT/Lucca are all defending Hans in some sort of way, thought QT was kinda obv town. I see this as a force for QT to die.

However, the scum thinking this would suggest that their pressure on either slot would've been relatively low as they do need a WW alive to take advantage of.