Open 679: Jungle Oligarchy (Game OVER)

[Infinity 324]

lucca looks very town by play to me

[Aj The Epic]

So I'm now caught up.

Grey, why ISN'T Kop the other WW? I see you kinda baited Hiraki over a vote, but I'm still drinking the koolaid that Kop is that WW partner. At the very least, I don't think Hiraki is the wolf here.

Also, I'm fairly positive the last WW was a replacement. After going on a rollercoaster re-read of the thread, QT seems pretty town early on but it's fairly obvious towards the end of D1 that he was going to catch some serious flak D2. This to me is a very, very clear signal that the WW didn't realize their best kill was probably Mattblackguy (since running theory, Lucca scum).

It's also interesting that scum only served up people who could've been pressured hard the next day. In reality, that kill list should've been [Grey, Riley, LuV] as that was the specific town block that needed to be broken for scum to advance. The list is actually too entirely weird considering, but it almost looks like scum was trying to force the second WW to reveal.

[Infinity 324]

I don't think Hiraki is the wolf here.

You gotta explain things like this, it would be very helpful if we had good reasons for hiraki not to be werewolf.

[Infinity 324]

. After going on a rollercoaster re-read of the thread, QT seems pretty town early on but it's fairly obvious towards the end of D1 that he was going to catch some serious flak D2. This to me is a very, very clear signal that the WW didn't realize their best kill was probably Mattblackguy (since running theory, Lucca scum)

Flak from who?

I think matt would've been easier to frame as a werewolf than either of the other 2, or he might be werewolf. QT either suspected the werewolf more than lucca, or was killed for some other reason. Werewolf making the wrong kill is a possibility, but doesn't really fit Occam's razor.

[Aj The Epic]

I don't think Hiraki is the wolf here.

You gotta explain things like this, it would be very helpful if we had good reasons for hiraki not to be werewolf.

It's more of "lucca postured like crazy, even after a scum claim by hans" and "Hans caring about Prim's replacement isn't really indicative of another WW". I also don't think Hiraki and you have resulted in anything damning or indicative of the alignment either way, I thought most of it was quite petty. I'm not saying Hiraki couldn't be mafia, but my care is to disable night kills today.

@Flak comment, Grey was breathing down QT's neck by the end of D1. To me, it looked like Grey was ready to lead another crusade to kill off QT no questions asked, or at least would've been prepared to do so. I think that QT's stance in the town had a huge negative delta between the beginning and end of D1, and there are a lot of replacements who wouldn't be able to read the full game to see it. More importantly, there's also an empty QT that has no info to help them catch up.

[Aristophanes]

Hey ari, any thoughts on the game???

Spade, what should I feel things about? I'll look at the things you recommend.

Regarding the lynch list, the flips, who you think Hans partner could be based on his ISO. Anything.

Okay! D1 lynchlisters are probably all not Mafia explicitly. QT died, and I am town, leaving Lucca as an unknown. I'd have to read them to see if they seem like a partner for Hans, but it seems like it's unlikely mathematically.

I can also take a look at Hans and QT I suppose to see if there's a good reason QT died and whether Hans left any associative tells.

[Hiraki]

AJ you can't say that I'm not a wolf and then say that the wolf is a late replacement. That's literally the current case on me less Infinity's null but not really according to him tells.

[Infinity 324]

Yes, obviously scum read profession and question dodging are "null tells"

[Infinity 324]

progression*

[Infinity 324]

I don't think Hiraki is the wolf here.

You gotta explain things like this, it would be very helpful if we had good reasons for hiraki not to be werewolf.

It's more of "lucca postured like crazy, even after a scum claim by hans" and "Hans caring about Prim's replacement isn't really indicative of another WW". I also don't think Hiraki and you have resulted in anything damning or indicative of the alignment either way, I thought most of it was quite petty. I'm not saying Hiraki couldn't be mafia, but my care is to disable night kills today.

@Flak comment, Grey was breathing down QT's neck by the end of D1. To me, it looked like Grey was ready to lead another crusade to kill off QT no questions asked, or at least would've been prepared to do so. I think that QT's stance in the town had a huge negative delta between the beginning and end of D1, and there are a lot of replacements who wouldn't be able to read the full game to see it. More importantly, there's also an empty QT that has no info to help them catch up.

Why couldn't the werewolf have read in the night phase?

I just think grey suspcting QT isn't a huge deal breaker that prevents them from being NKed, there are a lot of reasons why people are NKed.

[Aj The Epic]

I don't think they had enough time to catch up really. It would've probably been an iso scan to analyze their overall threats. It's almost 30 pages worth of reading for two nights.

My impression of the game going into the first night was Grey was sufficiently in control as a town leader and that he had essentially picked his targets for subsequent days as well as had determined a small town block for his help.

I'm also not sure that the scum team really understands the implication of WW v Mafia in that situation for what it's worth. Like there's a lot of room for improvement on the decisions for who to list and kill.

[-Grey-]

Grey was breathing down QT's neck by the end of D1.

I had no interest in so much as attempting to sort QT today, so idk where you get that thought.

I have had two people in my sights since the ww flip, and neither of them were QT.

[-Grey-]

Okay! D1 lynchlisters are probably all not Mafia explicitly. QT died, and I am town, leaving Lucca as an unknown. I'd have to read them to see if they seem like a partner for Hans, but it seems like it's unlikely mathematically.

Not really.

Mafia listing their likeliest suspect for ww to give them towncred is a valid strategy because they know the ww isn't going to very well shoot themselves.

[Aristophanes]

Okay! D1 lynchlisters are probably all not Mafia explicitly. QT died, and I am town, leaving Lucca as an unknown. I'd have to read them to see if they seem like a partner for Hans, but it seems like it's unlikely mathematically.

Not really.

Mafia listing their likeliest suspect for ww to give them towncred is a valid strategy because they know the ww isn't going to very well shoot themselves.

True, but early game it seems to me like an unnecessary gamble. Perhaps you're correct though. I'll not rule them out!

[-Grey-]

{Grey, Hans}

{LUV}

{chilled, matt}

{BTD6, Pim}

{Riley, Spade}

{Chaos, Lucca}

{Frederick}

QT was scumreading Lucca...

UNVOTE:

other head doesn't want our vote here.

we both moderately agree on this.

VOTE: lucca

let's see what it brings.

~T

QT was voting Lucca prior to his hammer.

you just made the list.

Lucca repeating this and posting the video to emphasize it could very well be ww asking Mafia for a favor.

VOTE: Kop

[-Grey-]

*engage deathtunnel*

[BTD6_maker]

Kop and Aristo are more likely to be Werewolf at this stage than anyone else, due to being on the list. (If you are on the list, surviving increases your chances of being a werewolf. It's essentially the same reasoning as Monty Hall). Again, Kop being a WW makes sense given that kill.

So far, I can see where the Kop scumread is coming from. My scumread on Kop is currently weak, though.

[Aj The Epic]

VOTE: Kop

[Spade_Ace]

VOTE: Kop

[Infinity 324]

@aj Fair enough, that's a possibility but not necessarily true.

I think lucca slot is town, but I don't know how to convince people :/

[Infinity 324]

AJ and everyone else: if lucca flips town who would your top werewolf suspect be?

[-Grey-]

Kop and Aristo are more likely to be Werewolf at this stage than anyone else, due to being on the list.

I'd lynch you without bothering to read your slot's ISO before I'd consider voting Aristo.

[Infinity 324]

Why is ari town?

[-Grey-]

I think lucca slot is town

There is no rational basis for that statement.

The werewolves are a two man team. They can't afford to lose a member.

Lucca spent d1 distancing from Hans, but jumped off the wagon when it got wheels. That's classic scumbuddy behavior.

As the lynch progressed, he cast shade on the wagon to attempt to derail it without tying himself explicitly to either of the players in the 1v1.

His revote of Hans after the slip was a survivalistic move because he knew Hans had screwed the pooch.

After the Hans lynch, he asked for the one person that suspected him to be put on the list.

Dude is a wolf. End of story.

[-Grey-]

Why is ari town?

Ask again tomorrow.

I'm lynching Kop today.