Micro 690: Every Vote Counts (Game Over)

[BTD6_maker]

Do you really think starting with an RVS is that good of an idea? Of course, the chances of the deadline ending now are slim but it is a possibility and alternatives exist, such as RQS for example. Could it be possible for one or more of the RVS voters to be scum hoping for an early deadline end to have a chance of an easy Town mislynch?

[BTD6_maker]

In what way is it anti-Town? Assuming no one tries to rolefish not much can be said that is of use to scum.

[BTD6_maker]

And if the day ends with no votes down? Isn't that antitown BTD?

And what about the town that are voting hoping that there is a slim chance a quick day end will hit scum?

You are looking at this very narrowly BTD. Also lol @RQS.

VOTE: BTD

But overall RVS is anti-Town.

Town's vote in RVS is essentially random. Scum's vote in RVS (especially when the aim is to hope for a quick deadline) is weighted towards Townies. Overall, having an RVS makes it more likely than random that Town is lynched.

[BTD6_maker]

Nothing can be said that is of use to town. No one says anything alignment indicative in RQS, they just answer the question. All it does is disrupt the natural flow of the game and stop it getting off the ground

The same could be said of RVS. RVS votes are about as AI as RQS answers.

[BTD6_maker]

(was a copy of #57, blanked) — callforjudgement

[BTD6_maker]

Mod, please delete the double post.

[BTD6_maker]

That is why in this setup it is best if we decide that no one should vote without at least a very weak read.

[BTD6_maker]

And end the day in a NL if it ends early, which accomplishes what exactly?

If the day ends early a No Lynch is at least a better result than a highly probable Town lynch.

RVS can catch scum, RVS sets up a solid foundation for a game. Scum are at their most awkward and uncertain at the beginning of the game, RQS gives them a way to be natural. RQS cannot catch scum

Since when has RVS ever caught scum? Please give an example. A scum could easily just roll a die and vote for that person. This would set up no associatives whatsoever. (Granted; if they want to be opportunistic in this setup they would probably bias it towards voting Town, but still this on its own is not enough to catch scum).

[BTD6_maker]

i don't find BTD scummy here, just wrong

How is he not scum here, he is focusing his arguments on theory (and to me at least it looks like his pushing to keep them in theory talk) WHILE saying that the deadline can be extremely short.

That to me really only benefits scum.

I am not trying to keep everything in theory talk. I am trying to warn against completely pointless voting. If you read again, you will see why. I am not opposed to getting the game started, I was just saying that RVS might not be the best way to achieve it.

[BTD6_maker]

In fact, there are now 11 votes.

Not_Mafia voted to end the day but is still voting Jason for some reason.

[BTD6_maker]

Voting me is a very bad idea. Why do you scumread me?

[BTD6_maker]

Why shouldn't we?

The burden of proof lies on you. The default position is a null read. If you want to scumread me, you need to provide evidence.

[BTD6_maker]

BTD is just straight up ignoring all the posts about him.

Good to see i'm happy with my vote even more now.

This is because there is no substance whatsoever behind the posts about me. The entire argument has been "BTD is suggesting RQS, BTD is debating theory, therefore BTD is scum" which makes no sense whatsoever.

[BTD6_maker]

"BTD is doing all of that in lieue of scumhunting" is more where I'm at

if I had to rank them in order from scummiest to towniest:
BTD
Jason
Ari

but page 5 reads are slightly better than completely worthless

This essentially sums it up. I was talking about theory etc. because there was very little to go on. There are only 6 pages and it is difficult at this stage to form even a weak read. When the game progresses beyond this, there is more AI content. At the moment, there is not much to work with.

I am busy in Real Life, but not enough to require a V/LA.

[BTD6_maker]

I am a 1-shot BP Townie.

Read my first post very carefully. You will notice a Doc breadcrumb. This was intentional, to draw the NK. Of course, after that I had to try to defend myself without claiming. After I was close to being lynched, though, I decided that now is the best time to claim.

[BTD6_maker]

I thought that the Day 1 wagon would dissipate eventually.

[BTD6_maker]

I thought that the Day 1 wagon would dissipate eventually.

This coming from someone who was trying to advocate that a short deadline was possible seems really fucking dumb.

A short deadline is possible, not in any way likely. What I was trying to show to defend myself was that voting people at the start with no information was suboptimal. For that to be true, there only needs to be any probability that the day ends early, not a particularly large one.

In this way, thinking that my wagon would dissipate does not in any way contradict my claim that voting in RVS with zero information was suboptimal.

I claimed now because it was starting to look like a lynch on me was a real possibility.

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: BTD

Time for analysing votes. I will start with the Day 2 votes. This is a vote from TTTT, made shortly after my claim. Indeed, TTTT was voting Nahdia before the claim. Yet TTTT has not given any reasons for the vote on me after my claim.

TTTT, do you have any reasons at all for voting me after I claimed?

[BTD6_maker]

At this stage, JasonWazza looks somewhat worse than TTTT in terms of reasoning for voting. JasonWazza is basically saying that my theory talk was something that is more likely to be done by scum than Town, that scum are more likely than Town to say a No Lynch is better than a mislynch, and then claiming I was ignoring all posts about me. He then continues to vote me after my claim.

1-shot BP is a very common role. A scum that claims 1-shot BP is often likely to be counterclaimed by a real 1-shot BP. I have not been counterclaimed.

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: JasonWazza

[BTD6_maker]

i should probably stop voting.
we should probably mass claim today as it is LyLo. There is a specific player i want to claim after but apart from that i can claim w/e

This is not strictly true. In ordinary games you want to be very careful about who you vote in LyLo because scum could hammer. In this game, you don't need to worry about that. Indeed, we need as many votes on scum as we can get.

That said, I am also willing to hear everyone else's claim first.

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: Randomidget

I trust Jason's claim at this point. The precise nature of Jason's claim (seeing whether someone is in an active PT) seems to make it highly likely that there is an active PT other than the Mafia PT, which makes me trust Nahdia's claim.

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: End Day

It looks like a 60% chance of lynching scum is the largest possible here.

Not Mafia, you still need to claim.