DoY I: British Monarchy Mafia (Mini 1896) - Game Over :O


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Post Post #700 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:23 am

Post by Commander Shepard »

In post 682, Infinity 324 wrote:Shepard, you admitted yourself that scumslip a tend to come from town more often than scum

wtf is this. No one is making the counter argument cause it's obvious: postie just mixed up a word regardless of her alignment so it's NAI. That's it
Yes but it is 60/40 and even so you always lynch the slip because 40 percent of the time you get a scum and a confirmed townie out of it. If it was just about Tea and Biscuits yeah but it isn't.

Furthermore just because something more often happens from a Town player doesn't mean that is the case here.

People are using statistics to avoid a value judgment on whether it is a slip to them and the logical fallacy is horrendous.

For example: More than half of the faces on a d20 are greater than 9. Someone rolls an 8.
I say "The die rolled an 8."
Thread: Impossible! You know d20's roll 10+ more often than not right?
Me: wtf it is clearly an 8. Look at the die.
Thread: Stop arguing the die is an 8. We don't care to talk about what the die is.
I reroll and get a 4 and announce it.
Thread: Talk to us when you get higher than a 11.

Me: I fail my patience save.

Tea and Biscuits scumslipped.

Either you need to read it and admit you're ignoring it because probability OR
You are saying you are ignoring any potential scumslip for the rest of the game because of a logical fallacy
OR you can say you don't think it is a slip.

After all most votes don't result in a lynch as reads change over time. Does that mean to never vote as it won't result in a lynch? That is absurd.
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Post Post #701 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:24 am

Post by Commander Shepard »

In post 699, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 452, Infinity 324 wrote:What specifically changed between now and your last post that made you want to vote [postie] here?
I find it interesting you have no comment on my read switch on you.
Phone posting while prepping my Mako is so slow.

I don't even get am Omni tool speak to text function.
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Post Post #702 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:29 am

Post by Empking »

Is there any particular reason around the 'scum/town' thing to think that it was an eight? I mean, yes just because it can come from town doesn't mean it must be coming from town, but the counterpoint - and the one which seems more like it is being made - just because something can be done by scum doesn't mean that the null-tell was being done by scum here.

Honestly, I'm sort of playing DA since I hope that there is a good reason to think it is an eight, and it has just got lost somewhere.
Plus, if you guys want to make a point, skip the walls, because everyone else in the game does as well. - Magister Ludi
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Post Post #703 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:30 am

Post by TheRealGin-N-Tonic »

In post 700, Commander Shepard wrote:
In post 682, Infinity 324 wrote:Shepard, you admitted yourself that scumslip a tend to come from town more often than scum

wtf is this. No one is making the counter argument cause it's obvious: postie just mixed up a word regardless of her alignment so it's NAI. That's it
Yes but it is 60/40 and even so you always lynch the slip because 40 percent of the time you get a scum and a confirmed townie out of it. If it was just about Tea and Biscuits yeah but it isn't.

Furthermore just because something more often happens from a Town player doesn't mean that is the case here.

People are using statistics to avoid a value judgment on whether it is a slip to them and the logical fallacy is horrendous.

For example: More than half of the faces on a d20 are greater than 9. Someone rolls an 8.
I say "The die rolled an 8."
Thread: Impossible! You know d20's roll 10+ more often than not right?
Me: wtf it is clearly an 8. Look at the die.
Thread: Stop arguing the die is an 8. We don't care to talk about what the die is.
I reroll and get a 4 and announce it.
Thread: Talk to us when you get higher than a 11.

Me: I fail my patience save.

Tea and Biscuits scumslipped.

Either you need to read it and admit you're ignoring it because probability OR
You are saying you are ignoring any potential scumslip for the rest of the game because of a logical fallacy
OR you can say you don't think it is a slip.

After all most votes don't result in a lynch as reads change over time. Does that mean to never vote as it won't result in a lynch? That is absurd.
490
“To be is to do”—Socrates. “To do is to be”—Jean-Paul Sartre. “Do be do be do”—Frank Sinatra.
"Gin, you are so charismatic it's scary." -nancy
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Post Post #704 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:31 am

Post by The Wood Cutters »

In post 703, TheRealGin-N-Tonic wrote:
In post 700, Commander Shepard wrote:
In post 682, Infinity 324 wrote:Shepard, you admitted yourself that scumslip a tend to come from town more often than scum

wtf is this. No one is making the counter argument cause it's obvious: postie just mixed up a word regardless of her alignment so it's NAI. That's it
Yes but it is 60/40 and even so you always lynch the slip because 40 percent of the time you get a scum and a confirmed townie out of it. If it was just about Tea and Biscuits yeah but it isn't.

Furthermore just because something more often happens from a Town player doesn't mean that is the case here.

People are using statistics to avoid a value judgment on whether it is a slip to them and the logical fallacy is horrendous.

For example: More than half of the faces on a d20 are greater than 9. Someone rolls an 8.
I say "The die rolled an 8."
Thread: Impossible! You know d20's roll 10+ more often than not right?
Me: wtf it is clearly an 8. Look at the die.
Thread: Stop arguing the die is an 8. We don't care to talk about what the die is.
I reroll and get a 4 and announce it.
Thread: Talk to us when you get higher than a 11.

Me: I fail my patience save.

Tea and Biscuits scumslipped.

Either you need to read it and admit you're ignoring it because probability OR
You are saying you are ignoring any potential scumslip for the rest of the game because of a logical fallacy
OR you can say you don't think it is a slip.

After all most votes don't result in a lynch as reads change over time. Does that mean to never vote as it won't result in a lynch? That is absurd.
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Post Post #705 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:31 am

Post by Commander Shepard »

Spoiler: Why Postie is scum
In post 492, Tea and Biscuits wrote:
In post 490, Postie wrote:
In post 479, Commander Shepard wrote:Top scumread and townread. Go.
Wraith for scum; TWC is town.
-- Postie
In post 493, Commander Shepard wrote:
In post 492, Tea and Biscuits wrote:
In post 490, Postie wrote:
In post 479, Commander Shepard wrote:Top scumread and townread. Go.
Wraith for scum; TWC is town.
-- Postie


@Infinity what changed
Assume Wraith is town. What changes for you?[/quote]
In post 494, Tea and Biscuits wrote:
In post 493, Commander Shepard wrote:Assume Wraith is town. What changes for you?
I don't have any other scumreads; haven't thought that far ahead. I'd probably start pressuring the lurkers and trying to sort dreal again.

-- Postie
In post 495, Commander Shepard wrote:
In post 494, Tea and Biscuits wrote:
In post 493, Commander Shepard wrote:Assume Wraith is town. What changes for you?
I don't have any other scumreads; haven't thought that far ahead. I'd probably start pressuring the lurkers and trying to sort dreal again.

-- Postie
Why would you have to think about future scumreads?

VOTE: Tea and Biscuits
In post 496, Tea and Biscuits wrote:
In post 495, Commander Shepard wrote:Why would you have to think about future scumreads?

VOTE: Tea and Biscuits
What I meant was I haven't thought ahead in terms of what changes for me if Wraith flips scum.

-- Postie
In post 497, Commander Shepard wrote:
In post 496, Tea and Biscuits wrote:
In post 495, Commander Shepard wrote:Why would you have to think about future scumreads?

VOTE: Tea and Biscuits
What I meant was I haven't thought ahead in terms of what changes for me if Wraith flips scum.

-- Postie
You mean if Wraith flips town?

So Wraith is town Postie is scum.
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Post Post #706 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:33 am

Post by Commander Shepard »

Wow formatting fucked on that. Phone posting sucks.

@TWC your link didn't work.
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Post Post #707 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:35 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

@
It's not 60/40, it's 10/3.1. Scum barely "scumslip" more often than town. Also you agreed with gin's statement that scum are usually the ones who push scumslips so how do you think that pushing scumslips is valid??

Of course you can't go by probability and have to look at context. But there no special context here. It's just that postie claims to have said the wrong word which made her post look scummy. Is it possible that it was a scumslip? Sure. But is there any reason to believe that it was? Does that explanation fit Occam's razor? No it does not.
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Post Post #708 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:36 am

Post by The Wood Cutters »

Oh no, it works.

Pushing "scum slips" and going "assume Player X is town" makes your arguments lose value, like a lot.
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Post Post #709 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:36 am

Post by The Wood Cutters »

VOTE: Wraith
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Post Post #710 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:37 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

Shepard, all that shows to me is that it makes way more sense for postie to be trying to say "if wraith is town" than to be trying to say "if wraith is scum".

If I assume wraith is town it changes absolutely nothing. I don't do preflip associatives.
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Post Post #711 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:39 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

Shepard: "if wraith is town what are your reads?"

Which response makes more sense:

Postie: "if wraith is scum, idk"
Postie: "if wraith is town, idk"
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Post Post #712 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:39 am

Post by Commander Shepard »

1) Yes there is. Namely that it shows Postie's inner thought process Wraith is town.
2) The simplest thing is that Postie thinks Wraith is town.

It is much more complicated to believe she makes a mistake, doesn't read her post.
Does it again.
Gets caught again.
Then is just has a word choice issue.

Postie admitted she thinks about her reads but doesn't have them.

I vote and pressure that and she says she hasn't thought about Wraith flipping scum.

I don't buy that happening twice.
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Post Post #713 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:41 am

Post by Commander Shepard »

In post 708, The Wood Cutters wrote:Oh no, it works.

Pushing "scum slips" and going "assume Player X is town" makes your arguments lose value, like a lot.
In post 702, Empking wrote:Is there any particular reason around the 'scum/town' thing to think that it was an eight? I mean, yes just because it can come from town doesn't mean it must be coming from town, but the counterpoint - and the one which seems more like it is being made - just because something can be done by scum doesn't mean that the null-tell was being done by scum here.

Honestly, I'm sort of playing DA since I hope that there is a good reason to think it is an eight, and it has just got lost somewhere.
At least someone realizes they need to look st the freaking die.

Look at the posts I quoted and tell me your thoughts please:
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Post Post #714 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:44 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

The word choice thing only happened once, in . That's what your entire case is based on.

Its much simpler to believe it was a word choice error than a scumslip. Believing it was a scumslip requires assuming that postie wouldn't be very careful as scum, and that postie would answer a "if wraith is town" question with "if wraith is scum".
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Post Post #715 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:45 am

Post by The Wood Cutters »

viewtopic.php?p=8750811#p8750811

Go read that. Obvi it's Gin talking.

ANYTHING CAN BE CONSTRUED AS A SCUMSLIP.

STOP FUCKING PUSHING A SCUM SLIP THAT'S NOT EVEN A SCUM SLIP;A SD[ PAOSG; J;S DG;LJJASG;LJK
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Post Post #716 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:46 am

Post by Commander Shepard »

In post 495, Commander Shepard wrote:
In post 494, Tea and Biscuits wrote:
In post 493, Commander Shepard wrote:Assume Wraith is town. What changes for you?
I don't have any other scumreads; haven't thought that far ahead. I'd probably start pressuring the lurkers and trying to sort dreal again.

-- Postie
Why would you have to think about future scumreads?

VOTE: Tea and Biscuits
Based on this too.

I just quoted it Infinity.
Seriously.

Two scumslips in that short of time I don't buy coming from town.
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Post Post #717 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:47 am

Post by The Wood Cutters »

Like fuck me, I avoid the newbie queue for a reason. I joined into a Large head first game because I wanted to fight with the best to get my skill level up.
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Post Post #718 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:49 am

Post by Commander Shepard »

In post 714, Infinity 324 wrote:The word choice thing only happened once, in . That's what your entire case is based on.

Its much simpler to believe it was a word choice error than a scumslip. Believing it was a scumslip requires assuming that postie wouldn't be very careful as scum, and that postie would answer a "if wraith is town" question with "if wraith is scum".
I disagree Infinity.

And TWC I will push this til I die.
And this isn't a large or newbie game.

People are insulting me because I am a perceived alt rather than actually reading and thinking things through.

I feel bad for this other player because I guess they never get listened to and always insulted whenever they point something out huh?
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Post Post #719 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:49 am

Post by The Wood Cutters »

SO.

SHEPPY POO.

WHO ELSE IS SCUM.

WHO ELSE IS TOWN.

OH WAIT LET ME TALK YOUR LANGUAGE.

ASSUME POSTIE IS TOWN WHOS SCUM?!1?1
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Post Post #720 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:53 am

Post by Commander Shepard »

Wraith is likely town based on the naked votes here in the middle of this argument.

So one of but not both of Infinity/TWC would probably be scum in that case.

However I don't believe the case to be true but playing devil's advocate here.
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Post Post #721 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:57 am

Post by The Wood Cutters »

lol my vote isnt naked, i'm just revoting wraith cuz Nacho is gonna yell at me for dicking around in his absence.

We talked about Wraith before sweetie.

A lot has happened to many different people so get to commenting on them.
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Post Post #722 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 5:01 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

In post 716, Commander Shepard wrote:
In post 495, Commander Shepard wrote:
In post 494, Tea and Biscuits wrote:
In post 493, Commander Shepard wrote:Assume Wraith is town. What changes for you?
I don't have any other scumreads; haven't thought that far ahead. I'd probably start pressuring the lurkers and trying to sort dreal again.

-- Postie
Why would you have to think about future scumreads?

VOTE: Tea and Biscuits
Based on this too.

I just quoted it Infinity.
Seriously.

Two scumslips in that short of time I don't buy coming from town.
How is this a scumslip or even scummy? Not thinking ahead isn't NAI
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Post Post #723 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 5:01 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

isn't AI*
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Post Post #724 (ISO) » Sat Apr 01, 2017 5:01 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

In post 711, Infinity 324 wrote:Shepard: "if wraith is town what are your reads?"

Which response makes more sense:

Postie: "if wraith is scum, idk"
Postie: "if wraith is town, idk"
This is an important point.
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