Just because of Grey's play?In post 1454, Alisae wrote:In all seriousness I still SR ThinkBig because of Grey's play.
In post 1093, oldwino wrote:I've tried to figure out the logic of how many mislynches, or no lynches, we can afford and still possibly win. But this is the first time I've tried to figure this out and I haven't seen any explanations of it anywhere else. SO, anyone and everyone, please comment on this logic. This is all predicated on Dark, Icy, and me being town, which from my POV is the only way I can look at it now, even though I mostly trust Dog to be town and know some of you don't trust me and scum will want to discredit me if this logic is correct.
D2 we lynch Alisae (or anyone, I think) who flips town. 7 left, 5 and 2.
N2 scum kills Dark (or Icy, doesn't matter). 6 left, 4 and 2
D3 if we mislynch, no matter whom, Grey most likely will be the vote, and he flips town, 5 will be left, 3 T and 2S. Game over because
N3 scum kills any other townie and there are only 4 left, 2T and 2S and no way for town to lynch on D4 so game over after the D3 mislynch.
BUT if we follow this scenario and instead of lynching anyone on D3, with 6 left, and vote NO LYNCH, which the 4 remaining townies can do, then we are still at 4 and 2 going into N4.
N4 scum kills a townie, 5 left, 3T and 2S.
On D5 we still have a chance to lynch scum and win. Right?
If so, if my logic is correct, I say we lynch Alisae today (or anyone except Icy, Dark, or me, really) and then vote No Lynch on D3. All 4 townies vote No Lynch, the two scum are exposed. Of course, I think, one scum could vote NL and one townie would be left not voting along with the other scum and we're guessing on D5, but isn't that better than two mislynches? Or is my logic wrong?
Of course if we are right about Alisae, we're in better shape. And if Icy didn't lose her BP on N1, we're in better shape. And if Dark tracks the scum killer and doesn't get killed himself N2, we're in better shape.
What do you all think?
In a regular game maybe, but in this game the scum team could just take a shot at me and town is in the same boat tomorrow. Aren't they?In post 1457, oldwino wrote:Below is my post from a few real days ago, before the last lynch. I hypothesized an Alisae lynch (but Mastina's lynch works with the same logic) who flipped town. My scenario parallels TB's post today about maybe a no lynch is better than a mislynch. What do others think? If we can 90% identify scum today, yes lynch scum. But if we are unsure, does a no lynch improve our odds of surviving another day and a better chance of lynching scum on D4? Since I don't trust TB (Grey), maybe this logic sucks but I wondered about it previously, when I was sure Grey/Tb was scum. Now, maybe TB is town since this seems like a town-friendly idea. But hey, I'm naive here.
If you remove Grey from the slot, how does your read change?In post 1454, Alisae wrote:In all seriousness I still SR ThinkBig because of Grey's play.
They don't have to but I think it'd be easy for them to take out the last confTown and then we go into the next day still in MYLO anyway.In post 1459, Icy wrote:If I were to vote today it would be Alisae.
If we vote No Lynch does the scum team have to kill someone?
Exactly. If we'd taken out 1 scum already then a no-lynch wouldn't be a bad plan imo, but now it doesn't really help.In post 1460, Icy wrote:In a regular game maybe, but in this game the scum team could just take a shot at me and town is in the same boat tomorrow. Aren't they?In post 1457, oldwino wrote:Below is my post from a few real days ago, before the last lynch. I hypothesized an Alisae lynch (but Mastina's lynch works with the same logic) who flipped town. My scenario parallels TB's post today about maybe a no lynch is better than a mislynch. What do others think? If we can 90% identify scum today, yes lynch scum. But if we are unsure, does a no lynch improve our odds of surviving another day and a better chance of lynching scum on D4? Since I don't trust TB (Grey), maybe this logic sucks but I wondered about it previously, when I was sure Grey/Tb was scum. Now, maybe TB is town since this seems like a town-friendly idea. But hey, I'm naive here.
This is the team that I agree with. I hate how Chris came in and derailed the Alisae wagon. IIRC, Alisae was at L-1 or very close to L-1 when Chris replaced in. He immediately voted for Mastina.In post 1462, DogWatch wrote:I have been strongly town reading oldwino all game. I reserve the idea that he might be a very good actor, but he's also a newbie and I just don't see that to be the case. That leaves one team.
Chris - Alisae
If I had my preference, Alisae.In post 1466, DogWatch wrote:TB, which would you rather lynch right now?
Icy, are you saying you're 80% on Chris being scum?
YesIn post 1466, DogWatch wrote:Icy, are you saying you're 80% on Chris being scum?
I will vote later tonight when I get home. I'm at school right now.In post 1470, Icy wrote:TB you still want to hold off voting?
Interesting. You said you've been fairly sure I was town all of yesterday, why the switch?Icy wrote:YesIn post 1466, DogWatch wrote:Icy, are you saying you're 80% on Chris being scum?