Open 679: Jungle Oligarchy (Game OVER)

[Infinity 324]

I said that n_m was werewolf once cause he was on the kill list, but I changed my mind. I even after said that something may point to his slot being mafia. However, if either you or LUV is the werewolf there are questions about why you weren't on the kill list. And if hiraki is ww, there's the question of why he wasn't lynched yet with no one townreading him afaik.

I don't think n_m's slot has done almost anything AI, and I only have him as scum based on PoE, so I'm not really comfortable lynching him yet.

Also, you can guess at scum's motivations, even though you don't know the. That's what this whole game is about...

I find it very odd that you

don't

find it odd that as a universal townread you didn't appear on the kill list a single time.

[Infinity 324]

Who do you think is the wolf?

[Umlaut]

I don't think NM is a werewolf. If he is, his behavior is borderline game-throwing. He's either Mafia or town (probably Mafia).

I don't understand why anyone is interested in voting someone other than NM right now. If we lynch a non-Mafia slot today, tomorrow is lylo. Do you really want him around for that?

[Infinity 324]

I want to lynch hiraki because there's no way he flips town, unlike n_m. You have a point about the gamethrowing, but n_m may just be ballsy enough to do that.

[Infinity 324]

I wonder if mafia hitlisted lurkers cause that's who they were most scared of. Like all the active players townread them.

That's the only way the repeated lists with ari and BTD make any sense to me.

[Umlaut]

Give me the case on Hiraki and maybe I'll consider it. Don't just keep saying how totally scum he is.

[Infinity 324]

In reality, that kill list should've been [Grey, Riley, LuV] as that was the specific town block that needed to be broken for scum to advance. The list is actually too entirely weird considering, but it almost looks like scum was trying to force the second WW to reveal.

And this was the third player on the d2 kill list.

Not only that, AJ didn't give any reads other than the kop scumread and to say I'm acting weird.

HRMM

[Hiraki]

I had a large post written up but I think N_M is much much much more probable for WW rather than scum and WW didn't forget kill but decided not to kill in order to help town and their faction's win chances.

@Umlaut he will just refer you to that one time where I decided not to go into a frivolous argument that had nothing to do with my read on him and everything to do with his posting habits

[Infinity 324]

And the last list contained all 3 empty/lurker slots.

I suppose no one really scumread n_m, but does a scumteam with n_m roll the dice with 3 empty slots or do they list LUV or grey who are under 0 suspicion?

grey, LUV, and hiraki are mafia.

[Infinity 324]

No one likes reading your thoughts post by post. Especially when they become more and more useless.

Well speaking of uselessness, this post seems to be full of it.

Wow...I don't think I should play anymore if you're going to be using some of those expert scumhunting techniques!

I never knew that an argument over LITERALLY NOTHING could be alignment indicative...damn...

Lol, it's not over nothing. You made an accusation, I asked you repeatedly to back it up but you clearly can't.

-846 is a good post.
-850 is basically a scumclaim. He knows hans got lynched already, but a large part of the post is devoted to hans anyway--probably to just show he's giving content whether it actually helps anyone or not. Town would probably just edit the hans parts out of their post.
Not only that, the hans read is transparently reverse-engineered. It's like hiraki decided to townread hans (maybe because he didn't want people to think he was werewolf and knew the flip) and then made his catchup but had a hard time justifying that conclusion. Like, what changed SO MUCH between "this increases my scumread to 10000" and "I'm gonna land on the VI read"?? He saw a post he agreed with townreading hans? Hans made posts showing he was a noob? You could've checked his join date…
Since it was already twilight, it doesn't make it more likely for hiraki to be hans's partner, but yeah.

^ this is the most important part but hiraki wants to make it all about the question dodging.

I'm pretty sure hiraki is mafia since that's the only way he could still be alive.

Seriously, no one townreads him afaik.

[Infinity 324]

Like, there are a bunch of people that no one townreads but hiraki would be such easy lynchbait for mafia. And when he was wagoned in the past no one actually came to his defense, the wagon just slowly went away.

[Hiraki]

you could check literally any of the games where i replace in and comment on everything rather than comment on the current gamestate but w/e, i'm not continuing this argument

post-edit: "wagoned"

Hiraki (3) : -Grey-, Infinity 324, Aristophanes

top-tier wagon and arguments were great and very hard for me scumboi ass to defend

[-Grey-]

I don't think n_m's slot has done almost anything AI, and I only have him as scum based on PoE, so I'm not really comfortable lynching him yet.

Oh but it has.

Three different players. One single post that could ARGUABLY be considered scumhunting.

The slot is Scum. Period.

[Infinity 324]

No content isn't AI

[-Grey-]

I find it very odd that you don't find it odd that as a universal townread you didn't appear on the kill list a single time.

Nothing odd about it.

Considering I've been wolf hunting, the Mafia has had no reason to be concerned about listing me.

Your obvious attempts to shade me and protect your buddy NM have not gone unnoticed.

[-Grey-]

No content isn't AI

22 posts isn't "no content".

Make more excuses for him.

[Infinity 324]

I find it very odd that you don't find it odd that as a universal townread you didn't appear on the kill list a single time.

Nothing odd about it.

Considering I've been wolf hunting, the Mafia has had no reason to be concerned about listing me.

Name one player in this game who has been hunting mafia, other than maybe me.

Also I thought you said you had no idea why you weren't listed...

[Infinity 324]

No content isn't AI

22 posts isn't "no content".

Make more excuses for him.

I looked over them, there's some game relevant stuff there. Not a lot, mind you, but some.

Just because there are a handful of fluff posts in there doesn't mean anything.

Literally everything I say you call an excuse. Maybe (*gasp*) people have valid points that disagree with yours? Nah, that wouldn't help your agenda.

[BTD6_maker]

I don't think NM is a werewolf. If he is, his behavior is borderline game-throwing. He's either Mafia or town (probably Mafia).

I don't understand why anyone is interested in voting someone other than NM right now. If we lynch a non-Mafia slot today, tomorrow is lylo. Do you really want him around for that?

The simple flaw in this is that Not Mafia is not automatically Mafia. Suppose WW killed a Townie. Then today would be LyLo for Mafia. On the other hand, suppose WW killed Mafia. Then it would be much worse for Mafia. While I am not saying that it is impossible, I am saying that it is unlikely that Mafia wanted to risk having 1 Mafia and 2 non-Mafia in the list, probably opting for 3 non-Mafia. I think that if Not Mafia is indeed Mafia, it means that they thought WW would think that no Mafia were on the list, as if WW thought that Mafia were on the list they are likely to think that it is Not Mafia and kill there, and I think that given Not Mafia's quickhammer it is likely that WW thought Not Mafia was Mafia. (Indeed, many players at the moment think this).

One other point I would like to mention is that if Not Mafia were Mafia they would likely be more involved in the game, trying to do a lot more than two quickhammers and nothing else. Two quickhammers and no other content is not something that I would expect from anyone engaged in the game, and from my experience Mafia try to be engaged in the game.

No content from a slot is anti-Town, in that it lowers Town's chances. This does not in any way make it scummy. For it to be scummy, it has to be more likely to be done by scum than Town. In my experience this is not the case.

UNVOTE: Ari

On second thoughts, while Ari is fairly likely to be a wolf, lynching the WW is not the best play.

[Hiraki]

how do you get the wolf read?

[-Grey-]

No content isn't AI

22 posts isn't "no content".

Make more excuses for him.

I looked over them, there's some game relevant stuff there. Not a lot, mind you, but some.

Just because there are a handful of fluff posts in there doesn't mean anything.

Literally everything I say you call an excuse. Maybe (*gasp*) people have valid points that disagree with yours? Nah, that wouldn't help your agenda.

Shade me all you want. The more you defend your buddy NM, the more you dig your own grave when he's lynched.

[BTD6_maker]

OK but everyone is saying that you lurk in your scum meta and you are seeming to lurk

do you have any comment there because you've clearly avoided talking about it

No no, I've commented on the correctness of these statements. It is my scum meta to lurk. At times it is my town meta to lurk. Lurking isn't a scum tell for me, but being active pretty much guarantees I'm town. Mastina and Nacho have summed this up beautifully in the past.

Usually games where I get very behind, overwhelmed, or just don't feel the game are ones where I lurk the most. The long break before getting to start this game combined with being on the lynch list ensured that I didn't waste my time reading back, having a 1 in 3 chance of dying, led me to a lack of caring for the game. If I live long enough, it will return. If I do not, then my apologies for wasting a lynch.

This post is what made me start to suspect Aristophanes. Aristophanes had not posted that much but made this post. Here he is trying to say that being active makes him near confTown but not being active doesn't make him much scummier.

It seems that he is trying to justify himself using self-meta regardless of whether he lurks or not. By simple probability theory, if being active makes Ari much more likely to be Town, then lurking will make Ari look scummier. The only way this effect is very small is if Ari lurks extremely often and is very rarely active.

This logic didn't seem to hold up. Also, I think I remembered that Ari's predecessor was defending Hans. This is why I suspeced Ari might be the WW.

[Umlaut]

The simple flaw in this is that Not Mafia is not automatically Mafia.

I don't see how this relates to anything I said, or how it relates to your argument below.

I didn't say he's automatically Mafia. What I said was, if it comes down to lylo I'm going to want him lynched anyway, and since he's a hindrance there's no reason to lynch him later as opposed to now.

Suppose WW killed a Townie. Then today would be LyLo for Mafia. On the other hand, suppose WW killed Mafia. Then it would be much worse for Mafia. While I am not saying that it is impossible, I am saying that it is unlikely that Mafia wanted to risk having 1 Mafia and 2 non-Mafia in the list, probably opting for 3 non-Mafia. I think that if Not Mafia is indeed Mafia, it means that they thought WW would think that no Mafia were on the list, as if WW thought that Mafia were on the list they are likely to think that it is Not Mafia and kill there, and I think that given Not Mafia's quickhammer it is likely that WW thought Not Mafia was Mafia. (Indeed, many players at the moment think this).

This was hard to pick apart, but I think what you're saying is this:

1. The Mafia would only put a mafioso on the list if they were confident that person wouldn't actually be killed.
   
2. The Werewolves would prefer to kill a mafioso over a townie.
   
3. By 2, one would expect the wolf to kill the scummiest person on the list.
   
4. By 1 and 3, the Mafia wouldn't put a mafioso as the scummiest person on the list.
   
5. But Not_Mafia
   is
   the scummiest person on the list.
   
6. By 4 and 5, Not_Mafia isn't mafia.

I guess that makes sense, though I think premise 1 may be faulty. Mafia might put a mafioso on the list

if

said mafioso were doomed anyway, and it's at least plausible that they thought NM was doomed anyway after yesterday. I don't really have another objection other than the typical rubbish "but what if that's what they

want

you to think," but something just feels unconvincing about this.

One other point I would like to mention is that if Not Mafia were Mafia they would likely be more involved in the game, trying to do a lot more than two quickhammers and nothing else. Two quickhammers and no other content is not something that I would expect from anyone engaged in the game, and from my experience Mafia try to be engaged in the game.

Then I guess my experience doesn't match yours, because in my experience level of engagement is in general not alignment-indicative. (It may be indicative on a player-to-player basis, but there it can go either way depending on the player.)

No content from a slot is anti-Town, in that it lowers Town's chances. This does not in any way make it scummy. For it to be scummy, it has to be more likely to be done by scum than Town. In my experience this is not the case.

This is fair, but the problem with NM is not primarily the lack of content.

[Umlaut]

I don't think n_m's slot has done almost anything AI, and I only have him as scum based on PoE, so I'm not really comfortable lynching him yet.

How long does a slot have to do nothing for you to become comfortable lynching it?

[Aristophanes]

Grey, that is an impressive Iso you have!

Can you explain how you went from Locks cum on Momo to Maybe scum maybe bad town on CO to not mentioning Infinity at all unless he addressed you, in which case you immediately call him scum, but not a priority?

It just seems a weird read progression for the slot.