Newbie 1779 | Spring | Endgame

[ThinkBig]

I think this is the first time I had a perfect scum win.

[ThinkBig]

@Mastina, I am sorry for hammering you. I was pocketing you so well and was hoping to keep you around for MyLo.

[RadiantCowbells]

You were good DogWatch.

More from me later

[mhsmith0]

I was so happy I'd caught the scum team that I actually thought about entering some more games. But alas...

sometimes you'll just lose. it's unfortunate but it happens. If it makes you feel better, I lost a LOT in my early career and it took a LONG time before I finally got back to .500. It does happen though! If you found it interesting, it can be fun to keep at it and work to improve!

[mhsmith0]

I think this is the first time I had a perfect scum win.

I mean you did lynch your scum-buddy on d2

[ThinkBig]

Hey RC, thanks for replacing out as you would probably have caught me. How do you think I played though?

[PenguinPower]

Interesting note: I've run three newbies, and they have all been this setup.
Interesting note 2: Town won the game without utilizing RC's strategy. Town lost both games to a perfect scum win when the strategy was used.

[mhsmith0]

@Old, you played well and hope to play with you in the future.
@Dog, please stick around! Would also love to play with you again.

My scum game sucks. Any tips would be great.

I guess see all the times you were obvscum to me as commented in dead thread and try to avoid stuff like that going forward:

Subject: Newbie 1779 | Spring | Dead Thread

Alisae, if you're actually town, then you really need to pull out of your tunnel and confirmation bias. Did you learn anything from Witch Trial's Mafia? The TVT bullshit from you and dreal cost town the game. I'm not having a repeat of that here.

We're TvT! Also I'm trying to lynch you!

Subject: Newbie 1779 | Spring | Dead Thread

Um you were death tunneling me at twilight 1 and from what I recall, you still TR'd Grey even after his god awful hammer.

ThinkBig CONTINUES to talk to Alisae as if he's reading him as badtown WHILE TRYING TO LYNCH HIM

this game is just PAINFUL

Subject: Newbie 1779 | Spring | Dead Thread

Mastina is at L-1

Empty observation, tonally dead fish

There was a time when mastina was like "if ThinkBig doesn't do stuff I'm gonna totally lynch him"

Decent odds she'll just eat a mislynch (thoroughly deserved btw) before she comes back to do anything, although I rather substantially suspect that even if she did come back she'd basically forget about that thing.

Subject: Newbie 1779 | Spring | Dead Thread

VOTE: mastina
If I can't get the Grey slot, I'll go get mastina.

You didn't note 'L1." TB had to do it for you. Makes you look more suspicious and him less suspicious, unless Mastina is his scum buddy and he wanted to make sure no one hammered without realizing it. Now I am alone voting TB/Grey. With Mastina and Alisae as my next two scum suspicions. Around and around we go!

so...

this is actually incorrect, fwiw. Not noting L-1 is pretty NAI (not alignment indicative) because it's mainly just sloppy, unless there's a context of scum motivation of somehow fooling someone into accidentlaly hammering (which I don't think scum ever really do)

The scummy side of it is TB's, because he noted that it was L-1 without doing anything about it. Does he care that mastina is L-1? Does he care that Alisae, who he'd been voting for, put her there? Pretty much no on both ends. So he basically made a largely useless observation (just about anyone could/would have noticed it anyway), with no substantive interest in the situation or using it to develop or push any reads. The reason for this is that he's scum, and does not WANT to develop or push any reads; instead, he wants to hang out, be lazy, and let mastina go down today and alisae tomorrow (with the reverse of it about as convenient as well).

One of the big things with scumhunting is to think through motivations and actions. Why is someone doing something? Why is someone NOT doing something? Alisae didn't say L-1 because he's being sloppy. ThinkBig said L-1 without doing anything about it because he didn't actually care about the lynch state (which ought to be VERY concerning for anyone who was considering TB/mastina as a team concept).

Subject: Newbie 1779 | Spring | Dead Thread

I don't like how quickly the wagon on mastina formed and don't like Alisae's jump from me to mastina. Mastina's frustration feels town. Masina/Alisae is probably not a team.

THANK GOD that ThinkBig doesn't have the balls to scum-hammer here.

Subject: Newbie 1779 | Spring | Dead Thread

@mastina, thanks for that information. I did some browsing in the archives and found that day 1 scum lynches were more likely to result in a scum win than a town win.

1) bullshit
2) look at thinkbig doing absolutely nothing with that emotionally devoid observation

Subject: Newbie 1779 | Spring | Dead Thread

However, I also have about equal experience with ThinkBig. If ThinkBig acts a way I expect him to act as town (I think he is), then that townread is augmented. If ThinkBig acts in a way I expect him to as scum (I don't think he has), then that townread would be thrown into question. (There's also the fact that ThinkBig could easily have hammered me if he were scum, and receive virtually no flak for it, so. That, too.)

I cannot possibly imagine what mastina thinks that ThinkBig would be doing as town that coincides with what he has actually been doing.

Other than transparently useless posts (of which there are many), you have gems like

I see Alisae is at L-2. What is the case on Alisae?

Null at absolute best (good town would actually bother to look up the case, or engage with people who are pushing Alisae, or do SOMETHING to try and solve; lazy town could post this though so it's basically null)

Welcome Christ

Can I just comment on how appropriate this comment is with your Amish avatar?

It is actually Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson, the Rebbe of the Chabad movement. And I meant Chris, not Christ. I hate auto wreck.

Anyway I am still reading the game and should have content to produce tomorrow.

Said content never really came. SHOCKING.

To be honest. This is actually my stance right now. The lemonator slot is actually a larger scumread than Alisae. I think Alisae is scum, but I'm not absolutely sure; I'm pretty damn sure that lemonator's slot is scum.

If you are more confident in Chris' slot being scum, why are you voting for Alisae over him?
Just about the one and only time there's a suggestion of a potential opportunistic hop towards chris (making them less likely). The relatively empty theory question is debatably ThinkBig's BEST contribution to the thread to date, despite it's just a question that doesn't bother saying anything about what HE thinks (tho there's an implication here of preferring a chris to alisae lynch)

Theory question

: Is it better to lynch a player who is more likely to flip scum or a player who's flip would be more informative to town?

Yeah I believe scum!Grey would get into a fight with RC

I've played several games with Grey/RC. They always seem to get into some sort of fight regardless of alignment. Hell, I even get into fights with Grey/RC.

No real opinion or substance here.

ChrisOrmie is basically sheeping Alisae like I suspected he would, lulz

Um...I don't see Chris sheeping Alisae. Am I missing something here?

Ignoring obvious context, along with a clear intention to defend chris

There's also something to be said for the ulti/pieg/lemon slot being replaced AGAIN.

I would agree with this if this wasn't a newbie game. In Newbie 1746, for example, there was a slot that had 3 people replace out. That slot flipped town jailkeeper.

VERY CLEAR intention to defend chris. He's working to defray attention away from that slot. NO ONE noticed this. Also in terms of productive substance it's entirely defense-oriented, which is much more natural scum behavior. Also "ooh this counter-example happened that one time" is a substance-less objection. Mastina's poitn is that it makes it LIKELY that chris is scum, TB just effectively says "well yeah but it's not certain".

It seems to me that the town learns so much more from a Alisae flip than a Lemon flip.

This is also true though, since the slot hasn't produced actual content basically all game. The closest was pieg, and even there, not really much. pieg asked lots of questions, but didn't really do much with them. (The closest we get is casting shade on oldwino, which reduces the chance of the newbie-scumteam. Also, 584 looks like pieg knew oldwino was town.)

I disagree with your interpretation of this post. HOWEVER, I will say that it is quite telling that he says that lurking is anti-town behavior and then requests a replacement.

Wishy-washy, no meat at all to the post.

do we actually know icy was attacked? could there have been no night action at all?

townslip and even if this isn't a townslip I don't see why scum would push this narative.
Occam's Razor deduces that Icy was attacked rather then Scum pulling a no-kill gambit.

I have to agree with you here.

Empty +1.

Dogwatch is my top town read right now. I would like to try and sort ChrisOrmie, mastina, and alisae. I like Chris' entrance, though I was not a big fan of what I saw from some of his predecessors.

Sheeps the consensus about the #1 town. Says he wants to sort chris/mastina/alisae, says he likes chris while hedging

Alisae, why am I scum?

nothing post

VOTE: Alisae

empty vote

Nice shades. I actually miscounted and thought I put you at L-2.
Anyway what is your case against Grey/My slot?

demands alisae produce a case against his slot (as if that hadn't already happened)

Can you point those out and why you think it is scum aligned opportunistic?

demands someone else do work, no substance here either

You came in here and admitted the only thing you bothered to read was Grey's ISO. It seems like you were hell bent on tunneling on Grey before you even came in.

accuses Alisae of being biased and exhibiting unethical OOG behavior. Also this comes from a "you're town" perspective WHILE HE IS VOTING HIM

Staaaawp.
Grey is going to get townread as either alignment majority of the time. One of the things about his scumgame is A. He hates playing scum and B. Either way his game is going to be clean.

There's a contradiction here. You are saying that you are confident that Grey/my slot is scum, yet you are saying that his game is going to be clean. How do those two possibly connect?

Minor point at absolute best. The obvious implication here is "Grey plays scum well but I can read him" which is of course more or less exactly what Alisae answers. It's a transparently lazy question that answers itself, along with an explicit accusation of a contradiction when it's pretty transparent no contradiction exists.

Alisae, if you're actually town, then you really need to pull out of your tunnel and confirmation bias. Did you learn anything from Witch Trial's Mafia? The TVT bullshit from you and dreal cost town the game. I'm not having a repeat of that here.

"We're TvT" Given the context of TB voting Alisae, this is a SUPER scummy post. Also amusing that mastina picks up on this from Chris, but not from TB, but she seems to be incredibly weak to conf!bias and ossified opinions so *shrugs*

Um you were death tunneling me at twilight 1 and from what I recall, you still TR'd Grey even after his god awful hammer.

"You're being bad town" once again

Mastina is at L-1

empty observation, does nothing with it

I don't like how quickly the wagon on mastina formed and don't like Alisae's jump from me to mastina. Mastina's frustration feels town. Masina/Alisae is probably not a team.

wagon speed is a bad argument. defends mastina but doesn't really DO anything about it. weak objection to a L-1 wagon, the sort of thing that would never convince anyone to actually move off the wagon, just a "well I oppose it" nearly empty stance

ChrisOrmie is basically sheeping Alisae like I suspected he would, lulz

^That.

Where is the sleeping? Him sheeping would have been him voting me, not him voting you and Formica new wagon

Objects to the push against chris. Funny how often this happens

@mastina, thanks for that information. I did some browsing in the archives and found that day 1 scum lynches were more likely to result in a scum win than a town win.

1) this is probably bullshit
2) who cares? he isn't doing a damn thing with this observation

So are you a fucking hypocrite, or just opportunistic scum willing to drop literally everything about Grey just because it's convenient?

^^ This. So much this.
I really hate how Alisae's wagon got derailed and how your wagon got to L-1 in less than 4 hours.

Sheeps mastina's objection on wagon speed, doesn't actually DO anything with that, including, you know, SORTING the people on her wagon

VOTE: mastina
If I can't get the Grey slot, I'll go get mastina.

Hey Alisae.
You placed this L-1 vote, yes?

You still would have pointed out it was L-1.

So are you a fucking hypocrite, or just opportunistic scum willing to drop literally everything about Grey just because it's convenient?

No, I'm saying TB does that. AKA that's apart of his meta.
I usually don't do that stuff.

1. I put you at L-2. Not L-1.
2. I really hate using meta because it can be easily manipulated and exploited.

1) Who cares. Factual objection that doesn't really matter
2) Empty objection, doesn't do anything with it other than objecting to Alisae's usage of it

If that doesn't tell you my wagon is driven by scum, I don't know WHAT will.

I completely agree with this. The way Chris derailed Alisae's wagon and Alisae was quick to hop on to the wagon gives even more credibility to an Alisae/Chris scum team.

Likes an Alisae/Chris team, while pushing against any shade on chris, and making numerous posts suggesting that Alisae is simply bad/biased town.

This is seriously not hard. And I have not the slightest clue what mastina expects from town!TB that somehow she thinks she is seeing here

Subject: Newbie 1779 | Spring | Dead Thread

If that doesn't tell you my wagon is driven by scum, I don't know WHAT will.

I completely agree with this. The way Chris derailed Alisae's wagon and Alisae was quick to hop on to the wagon gives even more credibility to an Alisae/Chris scum team.

One MIGHT, if one cares to look, notice how ThinkBig has a STRONG preference not to lynch Chris. How ThinkBig talked to Alisae as if Alisae was town while trying to lynch him. How ThinkBig had very little interest in sorting the board, in giving substantive engagement, or in being villagery at all.
Let us all bow our heads and pray, nay, hope, that this gets noticed.

Subject: Newbie 1779 | Spring | Dead Thread

Ready for the metric fuckton of good content
Ah well, I never did understand the metric system. but I thought a "fuckton" would be more. In any case it was good enough for Mastina.

You should try isoing ThinkBig.

The thing about ThinkBig is that every time he gives content, it is more or less: good. It is what I was expecting. It is what I wanted. It is what I would think would be town.

But the thing about ThinkBig is also that his content is sporadic. You say there isn't content present, but there is. It's just a little bit inconsistent in its presence--stronger in some areas, much much much much much weaker in others.

So ThinkBig simultaneously

has

delivered the content I demanded...
...And

hasn't

delivered the content I demanded.
So no. It's not clearly good enough for me. It's weakly okay. It's good enough for me to not turbo-lynch ThinkBig--but it's not good enough for me to clear ThinkBig. I want to give him more time. Not to establish footing. But more, well honestly, give myself the time. To think about it. And maybe see more clearly definitive proof one side or another.

So I would still prefer not to lynch ThinkBig today.
I would still prefer to wait there a bit longer.

Not a single one of thinkbig's posts were good. Not one. I cannot fathom how in the world mastina could have come tot he conclusion his content was good if she had actually been reading and critically evaluating him. My guess is that she skimmed, saw he was posting stuff, and simply assumed his content was good because she had a pre-existing town read on the slot.

Subject: Newbie 1779 | Spring | Dead Thread

VOTE: ThinkBig

Blawb come join me on TB.
You DO scumread him after all.

Also as a substantive note, this (if it actually goes through) is in substantial part due to ThinkBig not hammering mastina when he had the chance. As the saying goes, "He who hesitates is lost"

Subject: Newbie 1779 | Spring | Dead Thread

It's MyLo. Please do not recklessly vote or the mafia might be able to quickhammer.

MyLo stands for Mislynch-and-Lose. If we mislynch today, we will lose the game. It is imperative that we do not recklessly vote.

No lynch might be the best option today

.

If he was an IC I'd be reporting him for lying about theory (since very obviously the BP is town and will get shot by scum, therefore there is no pro-town reason whatsoever to no lynch). Since he's just an SE that doesn't apply.

Subject: Newbie 1779 | Spring | Dead Thread

TB, which would you rather lynch right now?

Icy, are you saying you're 80% on Chris being scum?

If I had my preference, Alisae.

So the proper thing to do here is to ask ThinkBig WHY he prefers Alisae to Chris if he's confident that's the team, especially since he was openly calling Alisae just badtown on d2.

Subject: Newbie 1779 | Spring | Dead Thread

So in MYLO...

ThinkBig is being passive and weak. Alisae is being aggressive and useful. It's actually kind of obvious from behaviors here which is the scum (it was also obvious d2 tho...)

[ThinkBig]

@Smith, thanks!!

Why would I be lying about theory in regards to MyLo?

[ChrisOrmie]

@MOD: I am ok with releasing the scum chat.
@Grey, hope I made you proud with your slot.
@Alisae, thanks for being usual lynch bait!
@Chris, thanks for being an awesome buddy.

Thanks TB, made it easy that final day to be scummy and still get us through for the win. I was sure someone would have slowed down the wagon seeing as it was MYLO, but it jsut kept building for us.

I think this is my worse scum game of the 2 I've replaced into now, that one I could play mostly town but here I did have to manufacture a few extra things. Made it interesting, but even with no NK n1, just glad to get it over the line. No RC, no Smith, and I managed to get Mastina out too... I had to do that just in case I was tracked that night which is why Blawb had to be the kill. Nervous times there. oldwino and DogWatch were tough to play against, they gave me nothing to twist.

[mhsmith0]

@Smith, thanks!!

Why would I be lying about theory in regards to MyLo?

There was a known bp, which meant that scum would just shoot there and there was no pro town benefit to no lynching.

[ThinkBig]

@Smith, thanks!!

Why would I be lying about theory in regards to MyLo?

There was a known bp, which meant that scum would just shoot there and there was no pro town benefit to no lynching.

Though in this case scum wouldn't have shot the BP as they never shot him the first night. Which was odd.

[DogWatch]

I was sure someone would have slowed down the wagon seeing as it was MYLO, but it jsut kept building for us. .

I was seriously considering switching my vote to you but then TB came along just at the right time.

[mhsmith0]

@Smith, thanks!!

Why would I be lying about theory in regards to MyLo?

There was a known bp, which meant that scum would just shoot there and there was no pro town benefit to no lynching.

Though in this case scum wouldn't have shot the BP as they never shot him the first night. Which was odd.

But from town knowledge that's the presumed outcome. Moreover, a no lynch would have scum shoot the bp, take off the bp, and then it's "well now what" (and then they shoot there again n4 if given the chance).

[ChrisOrmie]

I was sure someone would have slowed down the wagon seeing as it was MYLO, but it jsut kept building for us. .

I was seriously considering switching my vote to you but then TB came along just at the right time.

Yeah I think I'd pushed it a bit much at that point, was expecting a big push on me there. Was trying a something new out and it just doesn't mesh with my playstyle well.

[RadiantCowbells]

Hey RC, thanks for replacing out as you would probably have caught me. How do you think I played though?

I genuinely thought both you and Chris were sorta obvscum. I am surprised town lost but then again not all that surprised given that I feel like Mastina essentially made the game unwinnable for town.

[mhsmith0]

Hey RC, thanks for replacing out as you would probably have caught me. How do you think I played though?

I genuinely thought both you and Chris were sorta obvscum. I am surprised town lost but then again not all that surprised given that I feel like Mastina essentially made the game unwinnable for town.

+1

[ThinkBig]

Hey RC, thanks for replacing out as you would probably have caught me. How do you think I played though?

I genuinely thought both you and Chris were sorta obvscum. I am surprised town lost but then again not all that surprised given that I feel like Mastina essentially made the game unwinnable for town.

Yeah I was so obv scum it hurt.

I'm surprised we won, but not really. I think had I waited until after Icy to have voted, it would have been different.

[ThinkBig]

I think this is the first time I had a perfect scum win.

And RC, once again we are opposite alignments.

[mhsmith0]

That hope spot where thinkbig was wagoned briefly d2 before it returned to mastina made it more painful but I figured town was going down. I think RC replacing out made it like 80% scum win odds even given the RC/scum/scum POE.

Mastina hard scum reading Chris and then doing her best to wagon elsewhere while blaming me (as if I'd EVER advocated bullshit like information lynching) just slayed me. It's just really difficult to win as town when you have people aggressively game-throwing like that.

[RadiantCowbells]

Sorry to town for replacing out. I don't think that we'd have lost this had I been in the slot but there were strong personal reasons for me to not want to play this out.

[mhsmith0]

Incidentally, my thought about why mastina was going for that information lynching silliness was that she was approaching the game with the attitude that everything needed to revolve around what was convenient for her. There are a bunch of qutoes I can probably pull along those lines, but off the cuff highlights include:

- the RQS and "I'm going to be psychologically profiling people" silliness to start with, as well as her later unhappiness about people not playing along (as if she was in any way entitled to have people comply with that silliness)
- the "I don't have to explain myself but you sure do" silliness she pushed on me early on
- the "if we lynch Alisae it will help my read on Dogwatch" silliness (this was I think a big part of the core of her motivation about "infomration lynching")
etc

Also her "my early wagon was scum-driven" read I think also reflected an attitude of entitlement, as if she was entitled to get town reads and somehow only scum would be pushing her for all the things she was doing. It was also pretty villagery, since it reflects a rather profound lack of self-awareness and thread awareness that actual scum generally find difficult to pull off.

At any rate, looking at her performance I think can actually be helpful for people who want to learn, since "awful town" (bad reads, overly high ego, "the game revolves around me and my conveniences", unwillingness to rethink reads no matter how obvious things are in thread, etc etc etc) is absolutely something you'll see again and again. Her motivations were a bit difficult to figure out, but once you look at it from that framework, the selfishness, mental laziness and overall bad play just conceptually make much more sense from badtown than it does from scum. Few scum actively try to be really terrible town (and I'm really skeptical any would be willing to sink so low as a scum IC in a newbie game), and the manner in which she was playing held together very strongly as long as you're willing to let go of the concept and expectation that town have to be good and/or correct.

[mhsmith0]

Sorry to town for replacing out. I don't think that we'd have lost this had I been in the slot but there were strong personal reasons for me to not want to play this out.

*grumble grumble grumble*
but yeah I get it. It's just annoying that it happened at a time I was town

Spoiler:

"Smith bitching about bad luck and the variance: a mafia tradition unlike any other" (it's actually like plenty of other traditions too )

[ChrisOrmie]

That hope spot where thinkbig was wagoned briefly d2 before it returned to mastina made it more painful but I figured town was going down. I think RC replacing out made it like 80% scum win odds even given the RC/scum/scum POE.

Mastina hard scum reading Chris and then doing her best to wagon elsewhere while blaming me (as if I'd EVER advocated bullshit like information lynching) just slayed me. It's just really difficult to win as town when you have people aggressively game-throwing like that.

Really didn't understand her logic with all that. I just took the opportunity there to play like town and call her on it. I think that's the turning point of the game, if I get lynched on that day I think town has a shot - especially with no kill n1.

[RadiantCowbells]

I have seen a ton of scum position themselves as awful town and it's one of the most common archetypes of scum play that I see do well.

I would never have skipped the Mastina lynch if I were alive in this game even if I thought she was town to be honest.