[Game Over] Newbie 1784 - Escape Room

[nancy]

If 699 is all you have to say, Noodle, I feel very good about lynching you.

[StealthyNoodle]

^ok

[nancy]

^ok

[StealthyNoodle]

Then how come you voted Pine in the first place?

Think is was worth an unvote?

Not in itself, no. And I still don't see her as town yet. Still, my core-argument isn't really that strong anymore. And I've changed my mind about Pine. To me, he's suspicious in many ways.

This, pretty much.

[StealthyNoodle]

If 699 is all you have to say, Noodle, I feel very good about lynching you.

Feel free to explain why you kept your scumread of Pine secret for 12 days.

[Drixx]

Before Pine was being replaced I preferred a WhyMafia lynch because given nancy and pine's close relationship it's likely that if one of them is town they will accurately read the other at some point in the game. I've had success with forcing close players to read each other. But with pine being replaced that is lost.

@nancy-- Please explain your pine vote and then unvote.

Well now that Pine is replacing out I don't mind saying this anymore but basically I've had a secret scumread on Pine for most of the game and have been dancing with him to get a feel on whether that read is accurate or not. I bit on his push on Noodle and sold a few hard reads to see how he'd react. When he then came back and nearly mirrored my reads, that was a sign to me that (he thought) he had pocketed me. Since he posted his readslist, most of my focus has been on sorting his scumreads, especially Noodle. The way that Noodle has conducted his push on Pine has seemed fairly townie and essentially me sorting Noodle as Town sorts Pine as scum by PoE. But it's not just Noodle. I've sorted you and src as Town and Tes remains the only one I'm not really able to sort anywhere. The Tracker claim eliminates another slot that I was suspecting due to associatives with Pine, and leaves only WM and Chronicle with strong Pine associatives.

Here's the thing though, I can't allow myself to conf!bias on that PoE and assume that I am actually correct in my read on Pine, and if Noodle is scum (and he's been behaving like scum for most of the game) then that functionally confirms Pine as Town. So my vote was because I wanted to see who would join the wagon, which would help me feel better about where I had sorted people, and my unvote was because Noodle unvoted and I need to sort him more.

You shouldn't have made this post. It would have been much better for getting a read on me coming in if you had let me read the thread and believe you were town reading me because of how Pine handled the slot, so you could watch and see if I tried to stick to what he was doing, struck off in my own direction, or whatever.

Hi Drixx. You scum this time?

Hi Nancy. I am not. Care to throw some questions at me and help me get into the game quicker?

[nancy]

Your only case on me, Noodle, is some garbage about how I must have lied about not knowing that I was an SE before immediately correcting myself (because that's totally a thing that futhers scum win-con????) and that my focus on teaching and gameplay rather than on gearing up the game with claims is playing against my win-con, both of which are completely unsubstantiated nonsense, and that I was somehow dodging your questions despite having already answered them and despite having produced more content so far than several other slots on the table /combined/. Your scumread on me is vacuous and lazy and if you want to not be lynched you should get off your ass and expend a little more than the modicum of effort I've seen from you so far.

I kept my scumread of Pine secret for reasons that I've already stated in the /same paragraph/ as where I stated that I had kept it secret. You cannot dance with a scum if they do not think you are Town.

I considered waiting until after you had posted, Drixx, but I weighed the pros and cons decided I was fine with making the post. Thoughts on Noodle, Tes, and the gamestate, please.

[nancy]

Your only case on me, Noodle, is some garbage about how I must have lied about not knowing that I was an SE before immediately correcting myself (because that's totally a thing that futhers scum win-con????) and that my focus on teaching and gameplay rather than on gearing up the game with claims is playing against my win-con, both of which are completely unsubstantiated nonsense, and that I was somehow dodging your questions despite having already answered them and despite having produced more content so far than several other slots on the table /combined/. Your scumread on me is vacuous and lazy and if you want to not be lynched you should get off your ass and expend a little more than the modicum of effort I've seen from you so far.

I kept my scumread of Pine secret for reasons that I've already stated in the /same paragraph/ as where I stated that I had kept it secret. You cannot dance with a scum if they do not think you are Townreading them.

I considered waiting until after you had posted, Drixx, but I weighed the pros and cons decided I was fine with making the post. Thoughts on Noodle, Tes, and the gamestate, please.

Edit.

[Drixx]

Noodle needs to stop dancing with words and just talk.

He has a small point that talking about game theory and such is not really content, but you have more than 100 posts and far more of them have content than just helping newer players get engaged, so it's only a small point and nowhere near worth even a light scum read. It seems like a really poor pretense to push on.

I need to read some more. I've only read you and Noodle in ISO and bits and pieces of the rest.

[WhyMafia]

Tes, who do you think are good lynch targets right now?
And who would you say are your solid town reads?

The town reads I'm still working on right now. My suspicions are nancy and Srceen right now.

You said this 6 days ago. Post your reads list as your next post or die scum. I'm tired of you focusing only on setup. That only gets us so far, and makes you seem all towny. I want explanations as well.
VOTE: Tes

[WhyMafia]

Before Pine was being replaced I preferred a WhyMafia lynch because given nancy and pine's close relationship it's likely that if one of them is town they will accurately read the other at some point in the game. I've had success with forcing close players to read each other. But with pine being replaced that is lost.

@nancy-- Please explain your pine vote and then unvote.

Well now that Pine is replacing out I don't mind saying this anymore but basically I've had a secret scumread on Pine for most of the game and have been dancing with him to get a feel on whether that read is accurate or not. I bit on his push on Noodle and sold a few hard reads to see how he'd react. When he then came back and nearly mirrored my reads, that was a sign to me that (he thought) he had pocketed me. Since he posted his readslist, most of my focus has been on sorting his scumreads, especially Noodle. The way that Noodle has conducted his push on Pine has seemed fairly townie and essentially me sorting Noodle as Town sorts Pine as scum by PoE. But it's not just Noodle. I've sorted you and src as Town and Tes remains the only one I'm not really able to sort anywhere. The Tracker claim eliminates another slot that I was suspecting due to associatives with Pine, and leaves only WM and Chronicle with strong Pine associatives.

Here's the thing though, I can't allow myself to conf!bias on that PoE and assume that I am actually correct in my read on Pine, and if Noodle is scum (and he's been behaving like scum for most of the game) then that functionally confirms Pine as Town. So my vote was because I wanted to see who would join the wagon, which would help me feel better about where I had sorted people, and my unvote was because Noodle unvoted and I need to sort him more.

Can you explain the terminology a bit? What's poE. Also, what do you mean by "The Tracker claim eliminates another slot that I was suspecting due to associatives with Pine, and leaves only WM and Chronicle with strong Pine associative?"
Finally, what does this statement mean?
"I can't allow myself to conf!bias on that PoE "

[nancy]

Can you explain the terminology a bit? What's poE. Also, what do you mean by "The Tracker claim eliminates another slot that I was suspecting due to associatives with Pine, and leaves only WM and Chronicle with strong Pine associative?"
Finally, what does this statement mean?
"I can't allow myself to conf!bias on that PoE "

Sure! Sorry. PoE stands for Process of Elimination. It basically involves ruling out different combinations of slots as this or that alignment together in order to refine your reads. For instance, PoE suggests that both Pine and I are extremely unlikely to be scum with anyone we push due to our anti-bus stance, so if you believe that either of us are scum you can safely eliminate possible pairings based on that. It also means that if we're scum, our scumpartner is unlikely to be below null in our reads, which means that if Pine is scum then one of {Chronicle, WM} are

probably

scum, with a lesser but still reasonable chance of {Loopdan, src} being the scumbud.

If you go through Pine's ISO you'll notice that his treatment of your slot is fairly odd, mostly due to the way he's postured around your content and at times seems to have gone out of his way to take favorable interpretations of your content. There are three basic ways to interpret this: he's scumbuds with you and wants to paint you in the best light possible, he's scum without you and wants to create false associatives to bury you if he flips, he's Town and he wants to be an encouraging IC. I'm currently leaning towards the third option.

"I can't allow myself to conf!bias on that PoE" means that if I focus on the PoE of possible scumbuds with scum!Pine, I'm in danger of getting caught up in a constructed narrative where Pine is scum, and ignore other alternatives. Conf!biasing is always liable to happen when you notice one or two details that seem strange in a certain way. Taking those little details and running off with them into an elaborate narrative is a surefire way to blind yourself to what is actually going on in the game and wrongly clear slots as Town that may actually be scum. So I take note of those associatives between Pine and other slots, but I am careful not to let myself get caught up in that narrative and continually check myself to pull myself out of it if I do start drifting that way. That doesn't mean that the PoE isn't valid, it just means that I have to not let it shape my reads and my approach to the game.

[WhyMafia]

Can you explain the terminology a bit? What's poE. Also, what do you mean by "The Tracker claim eliminates another slot that I was suspecting due to associatives with Pine, and leaves only WM and Chronicle with strong Pine associative?"
Finally, what does this statement mean?
"I can't allow myself to conf!bias on that PoE "

Sure! Sorry. PoE stands for Process of Elimination. It basically involves ruling out different combinations of slots as this or that alignment together in order to refine your reads. For instance, PoE suggests that both Pine and I are extremely unlikely to be scum with anyone we push due to our anti-bus stance, so if you believe that either of us are scum you can safely eliminate possible pairings based on that. It also means that if we're scum, our scumpartner is unlikely to be below null in our reads, which means that if Pine is scum then one of {Chronicle, WM} are

probably

scum, with a lesser but still reasonable chance of {Loopdan, src} being the scumbud.

If you go through Pine's ISO you'll notice that his treatment of your slot is fairly odd, mostly due to the way he's postured around your content and at times seems to have gone out of his way to take favorable interpretations of your content. There are three basic ways to interpret this: he's scumbuds with you and wants to paint you in the best light possible, he's scum without you and wants to create false associatives to bury you if he flips, he's Town and he wants to be an encouraging IC. I'm currently leaning towards the third option.

"I can't allow myself to conf!bias on that PoE" means that if I focus on the PoE of possible scumbuds with scum!Pine, I'm in danger of getting caught up in a constructed narrative where Pine is scum, and ignore other alternatives. Conf!biasing is always liable to happen when you notice one or two details that seem strange in a certain way. Taking those little details and running off with them into an elaborate narrative is a surefire way to blind yourself to what is actually going on in the game and wrongly clear slots as Town that may actually be scum. So I take note of those associatives between Pine and other slots, but I am careful not to let myself get caught up in that narrative and continually check myself to pull myself out of it if I do start drifting that way. That doesn't mean that the PoE isn't valid, it just means that I have to not let it shape my reads and my approach to the game.

Ohhhhh. Thanks for clearing that up!

[nancy]

And ftr, now that I seem to have unfortunately killed this push on me, there's a fairly strong indicator as to why I'm not scum this game that no one has mentioned yet: I've pushed the gamestate more than any other slot in the game and yet at no point before now have I tried to seriously push any wagons. If I were scum I would have almost certainly been leveraging my content towards pushing slots in order to get claims from them and get a better PoE on the NK if not out a PR. The fact that there have been no L-1 wagons at this point (WM came closest with L-2?) suggests that scum are either not interested in or not capable of pushing wagons.

[WhyMafia]

(WM came closest with L-2?)

YUP

[nancy]

WM how do you feel about your play so far and how do you feel about the gamestate right now?

[WhyMafia]

WM how do you feel about your play so far and how do you feel about the gamestate right now?

My play - Full of mistakes, but I'm trying to put pressure/find scum

GameState - Erm. Is that just like what's going on in the game atm?

[nancy]

Yep, basically. State of the game as it stands currently.

[Srceenplay]

nancy
Saying you don't buss and Pine doesn't buss therefore cannot be scum together. Is that a trust tell? I don't have experience to know.

Suppose that's a question for our new ic.

[nancy]

Nah it's just super reliable meta.

[nancy]

A trust tell is like, if you have a friend that is practically incapable of lying and you ask them directly if they're scum. It's something that other people wouldn't know about and it's cheating because you're using OOG information to gain an information advantage.

[StealthyNoodle]

I kept my scumread of Pine secret for reasons that I've already stated in the /same paragraph/ as where I stated that I had kept it secret. You cannot dance with a scum if they do not think you are Townreading them.

You actually want us to believe you had a scumread on Pine from day one, kept it secret for 12 days, only to reveal it now? Do you hear how ridiculous that sounds?

if you want to not be lynched you should get off your ass and expend a little more than the modicum of effort I've seen from you so far.

And once again you keep showering me with empty threats; I won't get lynched.

[nancy]

If you have a decent reason why you think I might be lying about my read on Pine then please argue it but blankly stating that you don't believe it isn't going to get you anywhere.

Why do you think you won't get lynched? Instead of complaining in hyperbole about being threatened, why don't you provide actual content for people to read?

[Drixx]

The reason that someone who never buses is not committing a trust tell when they point to that as a reason to believe they are town is because even a thousand game record of not busing does NOT and CAN not inform you about whether or not the player is busing in the current game.

By definition, a trust tell is an action that someone always takes as a given alignment, and it is an infraction only when it is advertised for gain. Since NOT busing is by definition a LACK of action, it doesn't meet the standard. I modded a newbie game last year where the game (and another) were severely impacted because of this particular argument, and the list mods spent time and came to the conclusion I just gave ... sadly not in time to save my game from being prematurely ended.


@Noodle - What's hard to believe about someone keeping thoughts to herself for a couple weeks? I've played games on this site that went 6+ months and I could point you to a game where I caught a scum slip and didn't say anything for nearly a month. I made sure it was a slip and worked out all the implications and then went on the offensive when the time was right. It's not at all wise to reveal your cards until you're prepared to use them. Why do you believe differently?

Also ... saying you're not going to get lynched looks a LOT like bravado. I'm tempted to try and put you at L-1 just to see what you do.

[StealthyNoodle]

@WhyMafia, how do you feel about nancy's reactions after being targeted? Post 667 and out.