[Game Over] Newbie 1784 - Escape Room

[nancy]

Spoiler:

And I don't think it's pro town to announce soft claims to everyone.

This is a pretty scummy response btw, shading me without commiting to anything.

As bad as you say the strategy was, it's worse to go against it and have another pr killed.

I going to think a bit but right now at the very least you are a policy lynch.

This post makes zero sense. You do not policy lynch confirmed Town. I fakeclaimed VT as a gambit because I had absolute faith in my ability to be obvtown. What I didn't take into account was that Town would be utterly ridiculous and tunnel me.

Scum knows who is town, so the statement makes no sense.

No, for the love of god. You keep quoting that post as if I didn't fix it with an edit. Your interpretation makes no sense even if you assume that's how I intended the write the sentence. (It makes no sense whatsoever that way so I don't see how you can, but you do you.)

Because that means we have no doc to protect the tracker. Am I wrong?

This is the only thing that gives me pause about a nancy lynch. I fully expected Noodle to CC nancy here.

And if he isn't then town!nancy jumping on his soft-claim makes sense.

Ftr this is a somewhat townie response to the situation.

Why are you so obsessed about surviving this nancy, that you'd like to sacrifice tracker for your own survival. You didn't even have to use this argument before you were L-1, and if you didn't it could be played out pretty well, scum believing tracker was protected. To me you look like town, ruining the game. Or scum claim to be BP.

Obviously no one else are gonna counterclaim BP, because everyone claimed not to be already. If someone's gonna claim, it gotta be the doc, but that's risky, so don't. We'll know if nancy is scum as soon as someone manages to survive the night.

Please, thoughts on this.

Selfish, maybe, I'll give you that. I agree that it could have played out pretty well, but it didn't. I don't think I'm ruining the game because unless we lynch scum today the Tracker result is actually not that significant. There's a reason Tracker setups have a low winrate in the newbie matrix and it's because the role doesn't become useful until after there's been a scum lynch and unless Drixx is Town I guarantee that I would have been eating a shot tonight so it would only have taken one night for scum to realize that I'd fakeclaimed VT and there was no doc.

[nancy]

Spoiler:

That's just it.
She just killed a doc or a tracker. Town would not do that. (Should not). If she is telling the truth her best bet would have been to keep her mouth shut at this point.

I didn't just kill a doc because there is no doc. I am uncounterclaimed and confirmed Town. You're welcome to think that I have played suboptimally, and I probably have, but under the circumstances I don't think I had any choice. Town has been wasting their time pushing on me all Day, we're approaching deadline, I was being run up for god knows why, and I got plenty of valuable reactions in any case. Do you think that I should not have redacted my VT fakeclaim and let myself get lynched by an incompetent Town? So then I flip BP and the Tracker dies and Town has lost both their PRs. Does that honestly seem more optimal to you that what I did?

I think we should leave it to the doc to decide if they want to counterclaim. If I was doc I wouldn't CC. I'd just try to get nancy lynched.

There will be no CC because there is no doctor. Saying this is just giving scum leeway to push for the lynch of a conf!town.

@nancy-- Do you have any crumbs for your BP claim?

BPs should NEVER crumb and in this setup especially it really isn't something that matters because PRs are either counterclaimed or not and there are no fakeclaims outside of the matrix. (I'd actually expect scum, not Town, to crumb if they planned to fakeclaim BP at some point in the hope that it might make their claim seem more believable.)

Broke this into multiple posts for mobile users.

[nancy]

I caught up on stuff that happened since I replaced in. nancy's moves so far have been really suboptimal if she's town. It's possible she claimed 1-shot BP as scum to bait a doc claim.

If that's the case, the doc counterclaiming at this point is actually the best idea.

Then we lynch nancy, the doc is nightkilled. Since there is no roleblocker and only one scum would be left, whoever I track tonight will be cleared. So, even if we mislynch D2 and I get killed N2, there will be a tracker clear on D3. I don't want to risk lynching nancy if she's actually a 1-shot BP and the value of keeping a doc hidden at this point isn't much higher than just counterclaiming.

If you are town, please don't fake-claim

(I don't know why this needs to be said but it's been happening so often in recent games I've played or modded in).

Holy shit I knew we were going to be friends.

[nancy]

Spoiler:

Interesting gambit. I can't decide which alignment it makes more sense for. Like ... it has been demonstrated that an early BP claim is mechanically absurd and nearly breaks the newbie setup, so sitting on it for that long seems a little off, especially when I know for a fact you've seen the mechanical ploy wreck into a completely perfect win. I'm also going to admit to a little bias because you are now like 0 for 3 in reading me and have claimed you were sure I was scum each time.

I can kind of see both worlds being plausible. Can you help me with a run down on the events of the day in temporal order and what you were thinking at each moment and what the reasoning was that led you to play things out this way.

There's no possible way for me have claimed here as scum without getting counterclaimed and being lynched. If I were scum my best hope at staying alive would have simply been to fight my lynch with everything I had.

(It's not technically 0/3 because in our newbie I actually didn't think you were scum after I read Day 2, in Too Cute I didn't have any read on you but RC did so I just sheeped his read, here my read on you is like 95% Pine and PoE, only in Civ mafia did I misread you as Town, but anyway legalities (I think I'm 1/2?) aside yes I will freely admit that I have absolutely no clue how to read you )

Rundown of the Day:
- I categorically oppose the claim situation from my first post and get called scum for it because Loopdan was in a game where scum did that.
- I gambit a VT claim because even if a Tracker claim does come on the table, it's unlikely they'll be shot because they'd assume doc protection (my initial plan was to be scummy enough to not attract a NK ala my attack on Tes but I decided to abandon that and just play like a BP properly because I didn't want to teach newbies bad scumhunting which is 100% what this queue should be about).
- Town lurks and otherwise obsesses a bunch over the claim strat and teaching philosophy.
- People scumread me for my philosophy wrt to teaching.
- People scumread me for stopping teaching (post-V/LA) and pushing my reads.
- I get run up by Noodle who I still don't believe even knows why he is scumreading me, Chronicle who has been hard buddying Noodle all game and has no actual reasons for a scumread, and Loopdan who is claiming that I scumslipped or something, and so now I am forced to claim in order to get Town to stop dicking around.
- We're apparently now considering lynching the uncounterclaimed PR because sure, that's totally something you do.

I categorically opposed the claim situation and did everything I could to fight it because I completely believe that it's bad play for newbies and should not be taught. Literally one of the best ways to sort alignment is by having other slots scumhunt you and noticing how they do it. They can't do that if you're conf!town from page 1. I decided to fakeclaim VT to facilitate that, and there was a 50% chance that there was no Tracker anyway so those were odds I was willing to fly on.

[nancy]

Like ... you basically just scum claimed and cleared Nancy with this post.

How is that post a scumclaim and not just poor logic?

[nancy]

That's a probabilistic argument and it fails in light of the fact that we have information to work with. In fact ... I would go so far as to say that how Nancy responds to my request will have a HUGE impact on how the rest of this plays out. Try to read between the lines BlackVoid. If scum is who I think it is, I'm quite sure they will see what you didn't.

Which request?

[BlackVoid]

I looked at the setup again and knowing I'm a tracker, I know there absolutely has to be a 1-shot BP or a doc in the game. If there is, then counterclaim and we lynch nancy. If not, then nancy is confirmed town.

@nancy, when you finish catching up, let's talk about Pine's slot/Drixx. That's the only slot I feel comfortable voting. No idea who the partner is but I'm doing some heavy skimming since time is limited.

[TesXX]

I myself think that the BP or not BP strategy takes away the "you must defend yourself,

noob

young padawan" part but I think that should be solved by changing up Matrix-6, not refusing to do the strategy. There is a thread about adjusting Matrix-6 that you may like.

[nancy]

I can't be the only one who finds this entire wall fake as hell.

You're not.

To elaborate somewhat - that wall of Pine's seems designed to get him into nancy's good books (which would imply nancy-town). He just takes it for granted that nancy is town, laying some sort of trap and scumreads people for "falling into her trap" and "reacting to her push like caught scum." It feels really simplistic and not like he's trying to understand other's perspective. More like he's telling nancy what she wants to hear.

Precisely. He was hard buddying me in practically every one of his posts in a way that doesn't even make sense. Like it wasn't even realistic buddying it was just super blatant. Plus the chainsaw on Noodle.

W/E

VOTE: Noodles

This post is really gross. I don't believe that was a scumslip by Noodle and I don't think Town just says yeah okay and goes along with it like that.

VOTE: Src

[nancy]

I myself think that the BP or not BP strategy takes away the "you must defend yourself,

noob

young padawan" part but I think that should be solved by changing up Matrix-6, not refusing to do the strategy. There is a thread about adjusting Matrix-6 that you may like.

This is really a discussion for post-game but I think that the kind of opposition to the claim strat that I displayed here is part of what fuels the discussion about whether it should or shouldn't be done and why. Nothing is discussed if people just go along with the herd.

[BlackVoid]

VOTE: Drixx

I have townreads on Loopdan and TesXX as well. Unsure on the rest of the playerlist. Chronicle might be town but his play is radically different from a recent towngame that I was backup modding (Micro 695) so I'm not ready to slot him as town just yet.

[WhyMafia]

VOTE: Drixx

I have townreads on Loopdan and TesXX as well. Unsure on the rest of the playerlist. Chronicle might be town but his play is radically different from a recent towngame that I was backup modding (Micro 695) so I'm not ready to slot him as town just yet.

Can you explain?

[BlackVoid]

Explain what? My scumread on Drixx or the townreads elsewhere? I did explain my Drixx scumread in my previous few posts.

[nancy]

I'll follow you on Drixx but talk to me about the rest of your reads first? Chronicle especially. I don't want to go to Night any earlier than we have to and I'd love to digest with you as much as possible before then.

[WhyMafia]

The town reads on chronicle and tes.

[BlackVoid]

I'll follow you on Drixx but talk to me about the rest of your reads first? Chronicle especially. I don't want to go to Night any earlier than we have to and I'd love to digest with you as much as possible before then.

Okay, so here's Chronicle's ISO in Micro 695. A quick summary of the context - it was a nightless setup where if there was a town lynch D1, scum need to kill one of their own. And if there was a scum lynch D1, scum can nightkill a town but it goes into white flag. Chronicle put a townie at L-1 and a scum quickhammered. He admitted to screwing up and seemed mostly unsure about his reads and where to push. While he had gut scumreads, he had a very uncertain tone and generally just confused about the game.

His play here didn't strike me that way at all. He confidently pushes both you and StealthyNoodle for voting a lurker. He has coherent reasoning that I can follow easily and backs up his push well. Normally that's towny which is why I leaned town on him. But his play being so different from his towngame made me wonder if his higher level of confidence came from knowing everyone's alignment. So, I'm undecided on him overall.

[nancy]

Taking down a Town IC and dynamic SE would virtually guarantee a scum win.

Not sure why this is mentioned by an IC at all. It's a bad argument to avoid getting lynched, and shouldn't be used if one were an experienced town-player.

I'd also like to think that Pine would've had more insight as an IC, than to tunnel me from beginning till end. Not

once

did he see any of my posts as slightly townish, and avoided mentioning the posts that weren't scummy enough. As town, I'm pretty sure he'd be more open to more views.

Now, can we vote Pine?

Like this post is the main reason I want to sort Noodle as Town in spite of his really awful tunnel on me and the way that he's been hard defending WM all game for whatever reason.

Chronicle I'm having trouble sorting. I thought they were Town mainly because I didn't think a pure newbie would be able to fake the play they've been showing but it looks like they are actually more experienced than I thought and the way they came in and chainsawed for Noodle then postures on their Noodle read just reeks to me and 661 comes across as basically fake.

Src I've been sorting as Town mainly because I just don't think scum would be dumb enough to play the way he's been playing but his response to the claim and that vote on Noodle has really undone any reason I had to have him at a townlean.

pedit lemme read

[Drixx]

Like ... you basically just scum claimed and cleared Nancy with this post.

How is that post a scumclaim and not just poor logic?

The thought process that produces that post isn't a town thought process, imo. Do you disagree?

[Drixx]

Calling it now. Loopdan and Noodles.

[BlackVoid]

The town reads on chronicle and tes.

See previous post for Chronicle. I townread TesXX for being so insistent that we follow optimal strategy and have everyone claim 1-shot BP, then tracker. I see that he has garnered a few scumreads for "talking about the setup over actually scumhunting" but I disagree. I think he was so keen to get everyone to follow the plan because he knew it was optimal for town and he wanted to win. There was also a lot of disagreement over it and nancy and some others refused to follow it. So, of course he's going to dig in and defend his views on the setup. I also think as scum, he might want to hang back and see what town does as opposed to stubbornly demand that everyone follows the most optimal, pro-town strategy. TesXX was scum in the Chronicle-towngame I linked earlier and his play there supports my theory that he'd blend into the background if he were scum.

[nancy]

Hm yeah the emotion there is much more real than what I'm seeing here.

pedti uhh

[nancy]

Calling it now. Loopdan and Noodles.

Why Loopdan?

[BlackVoid]

it looks like they are actually more experienced than I thought

That's interesting! I got the same impression midway through reading their posts and that's the point where I started to wonder if Chronicle was better than they were letting on and is part of why I went and read the other game.

As far as StealthyNoodle is concerned, I found a lot of his posts to be awkward but the way he went about trying to dismantle Pine's wall case on him felt like town that thought scum was making a bullshit push on them and was determined to push back.

[nancy]

The thought process that produces that post isn't a town thought process, imo. Do you disagree?

Not entirely but I don't see it as a scumslip either.

pedit agree on the Pine push from Noodle, that was one of the main reasons I wanted to sort him as Town. What do you think about Drixx's point wrt 838?

[nancy]

Hmmmm.

VOTE: Drixx

Putting my vote here for now and I want to hear from the rest of the table in depth before we lock anything in.