DoY I: British Monarchy Mafia (Mini 1896) - Game Over :O

[Infinity 324]

Farside, AC have 2 other votes on them. TWC has none.

I'm not as confident in my ac scum read.
A few things chara said that had me rethinking them.
I'll do my best to catch up tomorrow.
Today is a bit busy at work.

This is more likely to come from town I think.

The only thing that I like about fitz's catchup is that he agrees with a bunch of my reads, but I'm not really confident in my reads anyway. He was obvtown to me in the last game I saw him in (friends and enemies).

[The Wood Cutters]

Infinity, who are your top three scumreads again?

[The Wood Cutters]

Data on my omnitool says Infinity has fake claimed cop before. I do not find the miller claim believable. Furthermore miller does match the history in the sense of neveer being crowned but a 12 year old boy who gets assassinated by Richard is unlikely a miller.

Fakeclaiming miller as scum takes a very different mindset than fakeclaiming cop, in my opinion. Fakeclaiming cop is usually a defensive play that has concrete scum benefits. It makes you less likely to get lynched, it gives you the ability to fake results on people (innocent or guilty), and it draws out one of the most dangerous roles in a mafia game. The only tangible benefit fakeclaiming miller as scum gives you is the ability to dodge investigations; it takes away your ability to fakeclaim out of danger, it comes with a fair amount of heat early game (and if there's no cop late game, even more heat), and it's something you have to commit too immediately.

I think that the miller flavor makes perfect sentence; we are monarchs, he didn't get crowned. I don't find that "being assassinated by Richard" means he can't be a miller (he would obviously be living during this game), I don't care about his age.

Actually TWC, AlmostChara, and you makes a lot more sense, only if infinity is town though. I had TWC as a townlean until you poked them with "you do look scummy TWC".
That is something either said to a buddy or someone you know is town. I don't like it.

This doesn't make any sense, but it also doesn't seem to serve any scum agenda. Townread!

VOTE: Infinity324

I don't believe the miller claim the more I think about it.

I liked the progression of this read.

Why would you have to think about future scumreads?

I think about "future scumreads" to see if they still make sense based on my current worldview.
In a game like this where I'm not confident about a whole lot, it's less important - one town flip still leaves plenty of people who I'm unsure about, so my world isn't shaken up all that much. If I was extremely confident about a player and not really other people (and then had people I was scumreading based on their interactions with that person), then it's helpful to see who would be cleared and who wouldn't be in your hypothetical world to see if the gamestate you're selling is valid or not.

A townie response would be that you hadn't considered that case yet. Or just thinking about it and then replying. You aren't town because you are trying to plan out your reads versus just having them.

What's the difference between saying she hadn't considered that case yet (townie response) and saying that she hadn't thought that far ahead (her actual response)? Both things seem equivalent to me.
I don't think that mixing up "town" and "scum" is a a significant scumtell. For one, both words are pretty closely related in how we store them in our memories; they're both mafia terms used to express an opinion of a person. Secondly, even if that was a Freudian slip, it's not the only explanation; it could be that Postie's confidence in Wraith isn't as high as she's letting on, it could be that she's worried that Wraith will flip town, it could be her subconscious expressing that Wraith is the only thing she feels good about and she has no idea where she's going from there.
I don't mind scumslips when they're used as a tool in part of a larger read, but I also find that the importance of a possible scumslip is sometimes exaggerated.

ThinkMomo + Wraith town block?

This is a strange position for scum to take in general.

I offer you my vote if I am wrong.

You vote to lynch me.

Wtf? You are acting as if I am some person not in the game, state you clearly townread me, yet you vote me?

I townread you but I do not get this st all.

You specifically said "Let's not do this" I stay out of thread except to offer my vote and now you want to policy lynch me.

Wouldn't you want me to sheep you if you are amazing Town/scum?

This post also seemed strongly genuine, would be an extraordinarily blatant and ballsy move as scum to get offended when someone starts scumreading them after they offered to sheep.

Not to me it doesn't. And flavor breaking a setup is dumb. Otherwise we would all just flavor claim and pick the least favorite ones.

Wasn't flavor breaking the setup.
I have flavor that explains my role. So does Infinity. That's reassuring, although it's the least significant part of my read on him.

Can you please sign your posts?

I am fairly confused as to how our posting styles are getting mixed up (my formatting and sentences seem fairly distinctive from where I'm standing), but okay.

-Nacho

[farside22]

farside...I'm not sure what you are getting at. I've given my reads and stated who I would be up for voting. I'm voting Almost Chara because the other two people I suspect have a total of 1 vote iirc. Not sure how that plays into your comment about preferring to vote me over AC and "You could vote twc or cloud and know I'd support it fully." If either Cloud or AC wagon were to develop over AC's I would move.

@TeaBiscuit...my reads aren't naked. My read throughs show where I find comments suspect and when I finished...the result was the reads I provided. If you're looking for extensive cases on my suspects on D1 you aren't going to get it. Right now they are a combination of POE, gut and some comments that caught my attention.

Your catch didn't tell me much.
I'm not even sure why ac is scum other then Poe.
So your just null.
I'd obviously prefer voting someone I'm scum reading.
But ac seems to have explained themselves and the votes on them currently are not making sense to me.
Like why are they a current scum read?

[The Wood Cutters]

P.S. I feel it;s going to be impossible to fake anything and get it past The Wood Cutters. Between them 3 they have seen almost everything I'm capable of, so I'm going to come clean: We're just a mere VT

I'm not going to quote all related discussion surrounding this interaction with me, but I found it genuine and think that it's more than likely to be coming from town. First of all, the major criticisms with the claim in the first place (the most valid of which was that Almost50 claiming that other PRs meant that he shouldn't be lynched Day 1) are null and void after the confession that they were gambitting (makes sense that posts like that were aimed to extend the gambit). The argument that they only came up with the gambit excuse after they got attacked for the initial attack is weakened by Almost50's posts immediately after the claim (and the claim itself); notice how they specifically call us out when they claim (this is consistent with their claim that they were trying to read us). Posts that also bolster their claim can be found here (specifically asking for mastina to respond) and here (where he gets annoyed that he's not getting the chance to interact with us in the way that he wants). Second of all, the entire sequence seems like one that's most likely to come from town. As scum, I don't see what he's going for here. The only way it makes even a modicum of sense is if he's trying to hard buddy to our slot in order to fool us, but unless he's faking the whole "you're strong players and I can fool you" thing (in which case it wouldn't make sense to buddy us so hard), then making such a wacky maneuver seems like high risk for little reward. It's possible he's trying this as a gambit to look town in general, but unless his process was "do something convoluted as all hell and assume it makes me universally townread", I find that doubtful.

I like the general sentiment of 392. Obviously not a particularly strong towntell, but this mirrors very closely how I felt about the game at the time (and for most of the day!). I like the talk of Not Chara's vs Almost's reads, not something that couldn't be faked but Almost explaining Not Chara's reads and Not Chara apologizing for not giving them itself seemed like a weird angle to approach it as scum.

The case on drealmer isn't the most inspiring thing in the world, but a large part of why it's unconvincing is because it's centered around misreading something (both alignments do this), and it's a pretty understandable followup to the previous post that I linked. From an "Almost Chara is scum" perspective, it doesn't really make sense to me - there wasn't any real momentum on drealmer, they put a decent amount of effort and end up just dropping it, etc.

I like Not Chara's reentry into the thread for no particular reason other than it feels genuine.

This push on RC is a pretty good look if Almost is scum here; the "hah! I have a theory!" popping out of nowhere looks pretty town even if the chances of it being a true theory is fairly low, but struggle with imagining scum attacking a townie because of a replace out. This is the extension of that argument, reads incredibly town. The reason I don't buy the theory is because I don't understand at all how the jump from "defended RC" to "was aware of me supposedly faking two guilties", but if that's an ass pull type of argument from Almost as scum then he deserves some very sincere kudos because it's an immensely ballsy thing to throw out as scum if you don't believe in it at all.

Almost's point here also got boiled down to "talking about activity" point by havingfitz, but I don't think that was a fair representation of the point. Both Momo and ThinkBig posting elsewhere but lurking here seems pretty strange; adds to change that neither of them were playing their preferred alignment.

You has stupidity and conf!bias combined. that's what you have. Get ready to rediscover how bad you are in this game once more.

This post seems pretty fucking harsh if he's lying out of his ass about it and absolutely unnecessary when Commander Shepherd has been so thoroughly discredited this game already.

there's also Prism's townreading us after my posting. i've considered if they want to oppose a lynch on us for towncred, but considering they already had a perfectly good scumread on our slot that's littered all over their ISO, dropping it instead of just letting the lynch happen looks more town than scum.

This is a good point assuming a HF scumflip. Don't care about it if he flips town.

I disagree with Infinity finding Not Chara's behavior re: farside is fake. It's annoying when someone you're townreading is utterly failing to read your posts, but you keep pushing because it's a team game and if you can get them to see the light, then it's your duty to keep pushing until they do. I actually liked it, but that's probably because of shared feelings.

Almost Chara is very, very strongly town, there's no way in hell they should be lynched today.

~~~Nacho!~~~

[The Wood Cutters]

@Prism - Why do you care about the people on both wagons?

@Empking - What do you think of my rebuttal to your 385 (quoted below)?

The argument that they only came up with the gambit excuse after they got attacked for the initial attack is weakened by Almost50's posts immediately after the claim (and the claim itself); notice how they specifically call us out when they claim (this is consistent with their claim that they were trying to read us). Posts that also bolster their claim can be found here (specifically asking for mastina to respond) and here (where he gets annoyed that he's not getting the chance to interact with us in the way that he wants).

@Farside - Could you post a more complete response about the catchup posts of mine that you thought were garbage and why you thought that my early case on Prism was scummy?

~~~Nacho!!!~~~

[The Wood Cutters]

Some miscellaneous thoughts I have lying around -

{Almost Chara, farside22, Commander Shepherd, Infinity 324, Tea & Biscuits} - these are my strong townreads
{havingfitz, shaddowez} - these are lynches I want for today

Prism is still operating within his scum range, but he's not outside of town range and I don't feel confident enough to risk lynching him Day 1. If havingfitz is scum and Almost Chara is town then I'd probably give him a bit more space; it does seem strange to drop his scumread when he did if he's not going to actually bus havingfitz.

I'm tired of Wraith's play, I don't care about giving him space anymore. However, I'd be pretty damn surprised if he was lazy as shit bussing havingfitz as scum here.

Drealmer - I like his early interactions with us, I like his interactions with RC. It's a shame he's still voting AC based on the "VT claim thing" and hasn't acknowledged anything that's come after that.

Cloudkicker - Part of me feels like Pine wouldn't play such an absolutely shit game if he was trying to fool me/mastina/Gin (especially mastina/Gin), but it's always possible he just didn't have the time. CK's entrance was OK, transitioning to fucking fantastic if shaddowez/Fitz are both scum.

Empking - Scum equity probably increases if Fitz flips scum, although I will acknowledge that the way he's been arguing things seem kind of town.

~~~NACHO!!!~~~

[Infinity 324]

Nice Almost Chara hystrionics. Town should have some level of doubt in anyone they are scumreading. Your blind push on me being scum for little more than my predecessor being an easy target is pathetic. And who is "scum" trying to "save" me?

...

By TWC seems awfully wishy washy on the ThinkMomo suspicions/vote.

Ok...

[Infinity 324]

Infinity, who are your top three scumreads again?

Wraith, prism, and fitz. Though I'm starting to doubt prism.

I should really catch up in order

[farside22]

You should note he is boring ac so I believe he is more serious then stated and appeasing because

he got caught lying out of his ass

.

What does this line refer to?

fitz definitely seems trying to sort people

-- Postie

This sums it up.

On a side note I see nacho replied, but I don't have time to go over the post currently.
Hopefully later today.

[Aristophanes]

VC 1.17

HavingFitz

(5): The Wood Cutters 806, Almost Chara 819, Wraith 905, Infinity 324 1343, Tea and Biscuits 1385

Almost Chara

(4): Drealmerz 238, Empking 1036, Commander Shepard 1209, HavingFitz 1373

Wraith

(1): Shaddowez 1083

Tea and Biscuits

(1): Prism 1091

Shaddowez

(1): CloudKicker 1263

The Wood Cutters

(1): Farside22 1363

Not Voting

(0): Nobody!!!

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

Day one ends Wednesday, April 12th at 6pm EST, or in (expired on 2017-04-12 18:00:00)

Mod Notes:

Nada!
You people are cool

[havingfitz]

So farside asks why I find AC scummy despite including my abbreviated reasoning (provided to TeaBiscuit) in the same post she is quoting.

In short...POE (removing people I think are town from consideration), gut.....based on......things AC did in the game that I comment on in my catch up posts.

Since tomorrow is deadline and I am the leading wagon (L-2)....as much as I have better things to do than make a D1 case in a 50+ page game....here t'is:

In my read through there were several things AC did that I did not like (i.e. found suspec t).

First...they claim VT when there is absolutely no reason to. They are not under any serious pressure...they only have 1 vote on them at the time, and the reason they give is because they know they won't be able to get anything past TWC....who isn't even voting them. (Not sure if suspicions of AC had been voiced or not).

So #1...unneccessary claiming.

Second... ...he uses his claim as a justification for not being lynched D1. Which is rubbish as given a hypothetical situation with two equally suspect individuals whose claims I do not believe...I'd opt for the VT lynch over an unknown or PR claim, as if wrong...I've only lost a VT. So

#2...using the claim as a reason to not be lynched.

Third... Pleading for people to vote them felt disingenuine. It felt like they were showing how they do not care if they are lynched to prove their towniness. But then they follow up their plead with the survivalist caveat to pause at L-2 to let the day go on longer. LYNCH LYNCH LYNCH US but pleasse wait before you actually do.

#3...false attitude towards being lynched.

Fourth... So the VT claim was fake...or not. I hate when people get cute and do shit to obfuscate the truth. Now...even if they WERE town...they have introduced enough doubt to potentially draw the attention of legit town PRs. Which if they ARE town is a waste of those players abilities. And if they ARE town...scum already knows it and has no reason to do anything but leave them in the game to cause doubt. So

#4...hedging on their VT claim.

Might have been fake/i.e. a lie or might not. BS. And the TWC hydra calls AC quite harshly for this "gambit" but never acts on their criticism of AC with a vote.

Fifth... Their response to a question by infinity made absolutely no sense. Like they were just answering the question to answer it. So

#5... saying shit that makes no sense.

Sixth...they give out two non-lurking related reasons for suspecting ThinkMomo. TM's comments in 216 about noticing Almost's play being "TOO casual". This when they did in fact have at least one game together. So it would be possible to have a feel for someone to some degree. And TM's 218 about post flip analysis. HTF is that scummy? Saying you will be doing post flip analysis? Everyone will I would hope. Because he didn't say what an AC scum flip would indicate to him (at such a relatively early stage in D1) doesn't make him scum. smh... The bulk of AC's push on TM IMO is predominantlly based on TM's lurking despite claims otherwise.

#6...a baseless push on a lynchbait lurker.

Seven...the drealm wagon wasn't going anywhere so the "I suppose voting TM wouldn't hurt anything" slide onto a defenseless wagon for the above mentioned poor reasonings.

#7...picking on the weak.

Note...in 887 AC laments the lurkers a bit and sends a message to Pine that replacing out is ok. I do not recall the same suggestion being made to any of the other lurkers. Also of note...Pine did get replaced by fellow scum suspect Cloud. Convenient. Get that dead scum buddy slot replaced so it won't drag the team down. Got it. Don't push the other lurkers to replace out to make town stronger through....right AC?

And the real reason for the continued AC vote on the Thinkmomo slot is highlighted once again. Lurking....but then laughably AC says activity is NOT the reason they're scumreading TM and in the same sentence point out momo's activity in other games.

#8 Blatent contraditions

#9 - Ridiculous ATE hyperbole.

Not only is my slot s100% lockscum...I'm obviously a powerful PR because my scum buddies is "trying their best to save me." Which at last listing by AC...my scumbuddies are TeaBiscuit and nancy/farside. Neither of whom, sadly, have done anything I can see to indicate they would not be bothered by my lynch. As evidenced by TeaBiscuit actually VOTING me and farside saying she'd prefer my lynch to AC's (WTF!!??).

I could have probably found a 10th reason but it's D1. I have rl and other games to attend to. But that's basically my reasoning farside (et al).

Wraith...if you are voting my slot based on activity...please vote elsewhere. I will be active and I won't replace out.
TeaBiscuit and infinity...if you have questions about my slot I'm available to discuss. Not a big fan of people I lean town on voting me and would prefer you vote elsewhere. What can I do to make that happen?

If I do wind up being today's lynch I would advocate AC's lynch tomorrow for the reasons above. At the very least...all the VT claim BS makes them untenable for LYLO.

[havingfitz]

You should note he is boring ac so I believe he is more serious then stated and appeasing because

he got caught lying out of his ass

.

What does this line refer to?

fitz definitely seems trying to sort people

-- Postie

This sums it up.

On a side note I see nacho replied, but I don't have time to go over the post currently.
Hopefully later today.

ffs.....who are you saying got caught lying out his ass?

[farside22]

You should note he is boring ac so I believe he is more serious then stated and appeasing because

he got caught lying out of his ass

.

What does this line refer to?

fitz definitely seems trying to sort people

-- Postie

This sums it up.

On a side note I see nacho replied, but I don't have time to go over the post currently.
Hopefully later today.

ffs.....who are you saying got caught lying out his ass?

Dreal.

He's wking for crappy reasons.
Actually he's wking for false reasons at that time.

I see you did a more in-depth reasoning. I'll try to read it over but my brain is a fog of sickness.
I'm expecting my points on twc will take priority just so I can get through it and rest after.
Probably going to leave work early,.......sigh, if my Brain would stop saying I need the money more then rest that is.
Sorry I babble when I don't feel well.

[Infinity 324]

The scum reads are in a minor part due to POE after removing people I got town vibes from and for the most part are based on their play. Which perusing through my catch up posts will show in many cases where I took issues with comments they were making.

This feels LAMIST

[Infinity 324]

Sometimes I think infinity is bias of players and has certain expectation from them.
While others get away with bloody murder.

This is possible. I've been burned by good scum too much.

[havingfitz]

The scum reads are in a minor part due to POE after removing people I got town vibes from and for the most part are based on their play. Which perusing through my catch up posts will show in many cases where I took issues with comments they were making.

This feels LAMIST

Seriously? That's some crap LAMIST assessing IMO.

[Infinity 324]

Farside's opening I liked more - her tone is what stands out the most as being town from me, she doesn't match the conviction she feels as town as scum (or come anywhere near it), and I really liked her interactions with AC - the initial pushes of "you're a better player than this, town you is X and X and X" is something that felt very generally and is coincidentally something I've seen her push elsewhere as town, and the unexplained backoff of the read strikes me as a move she's very unlikely to make as scum regardless of AC's alignment (simply because it stands out so much) but seems like a perfectly understandable move as town.

So in my head

[Infinity 324]

Except for the convinction part. I've seen her be very aggressive and tunnel-y as scum at least, but not in this way.

[Infinity 324]

Nacho, I think shaddow is showing a lot more depth than he did in OotS. Maybe I'm valuing the meta for one game too much, but what do you think

[Infinity 324]

Fitz had a few points here and there plus gut and PoE for a scumread.

[havingfitz]

Fitz had a few points here and there plus gut and PoE for a scumread.

Why are you voting me?

[shaddowez]

So, here's the reason I didn't want to comment after fitz' first catch up post until he was done....while the posts have a decent amount of content and supporting links in them, it feels like he's supporting pre-existing reads, rather than forming them based on the points he's making. I didn't want to point that out before he was done, but rather see if his following posts were any better.

Scum have to choose who they're going to read as town or scum based on what content they can pull from in the thread, whereas town has to use what's presented to make their reads. If you look at his reads, there's very little progression, rather an initial read on each slot and then more evidence to support that particular read. The only place this doesn't match up is nancy/farside, but the read changes at the replacement entrance, which is a convenient place to do so.

VOTE: havingfitz

I believe that's

L-1

[Prism]

Reviewing in a few hours, either way I'll have my likely final vote for the day up by 3 AM EST (~13 hours to deadline)

[Infinity 324]

Fitz had a few points here and there plus gut and PoE for a scumread.

Lol I was gonna say:

That's fine. A lot of my scumreads are like that in this game and others. However, how is he able to go from there and pull a full case out of his ass? It makes me think it's faked.