Open 680: C9++ (Abandoned due to mod error. See new thread)

[momo]

RB or non RB

What does this mean in English.

I will answer any questions asked of me.

[Umlaut]

Code: Select all

Language: racket, with debugging; memory limit: 512 MB.
> (condition! (conjoin ic? one-shot-doctor? (disjoin one-shot-cop? one-shot-vig?)))
> (conditional prob full-cop? one-shot-cop?)
9/184
> (prob one-shot-blocker?)
42/2663
> (/ (conditional prob full-cop? one-shot-cop?) (prob one-shot-blocker?))
3 261/2576

A full cop claim is fairly improbable if GC were to be a one-shot cop, but still more than thrice as probable as a one-shot RB is in the first place.

[Titus]

What happens on N2 though?

?? On day 2, Umlaut and the one shot doctor are in a 1 v 1 if the IC dies and Umalut doesn't add to the bodies being cleared.
If the full doctor dies, town got lucky and Umlaut can claim blocked here, but still has to deal with the fact that CommKnight still looks really town, and the IC looks really town.
If the full doctor lives, then the full doctor is directed to the IC. Then Umlaut can only claim blocked as long as the IC is alive. This forces scum to kill CommKnight, confirming the doctor as town or have a crap ton of explaining to do with their nightkills.

@momo, you weren't hiding a roleblock in your gun are you?

[Umlaut]

Momo, say whether or not you are a town roleblocker (and if you are, claim full or one-shot). Don't claim what you are specifically if you're not a town roleblocker.

[momo]

I claim full roleblocker.

Doctor on me tonight please.

I was trying to lurk a bit so that scum would not lynch me but that did not work.

[Alchemist21]

What happens on N2 though?

?? On day 2, Umlaut and the one shot doctor are in a 1 v 1 if the IC dies and Umalut doesn't add to the bodies being cleared.
If the full doctor dies, town got lucky and Umlaut can claim blocked here, but still has to deal with the fact that CommKnight still looks really town, and the IC looks really town.
If the full doctor lives, then the full doctor is directed to the IC. Then Umlaut can only claim blocked as long as the IC is alive. This forces scum to kill CommKnight, confirming the doctor as town or have a crap ton of explaining to do with their nightkills.

@momo, you weren't hiding a roleblock in your gun are you?

The one shot Doc could die N1 if scum can't kill the IC. That's what I'm talking about when the game goes into N2. Oh sweet Jesus momo just made this 10x more complicated

[Alchemist21]

I claim full roleblocker.

Doctor on me tonight please.

I was trying to lurk a bit so that scum would not lynch me but that did not work.

Why did you prematurely claim VT earlier?

[Alchemist21]

What happens on N2 though?

?? On day 2, Umlaut and the one shot doctor are in a 1 v 1 if the IC dies and Umalut doesn't add to the bodies being cleared.
If the full doctor dies, town got lucky and Umlaut can claim blocked here, but still has to deal with the fact that CommKnight still looks really town, and the IC looks really town.
If the full doctor lives, then the full doctor is directed to the IC. Then Umlaut can only claim blocked as long as the IC is alive. This forces scum to kill CommKnight, confirming the doctor as town or have a crap ton of explaining to do with their nightkills.

@momo, you weren't hiding a roleblock in your gun are you?

The one shot Doc could die N1 if scum can't kill the IC. That's what I'm talking about when the game goes into N2. Oh sweet Jesus momo just made this 10x more complicated

Last sentence was a pedit btw

[Titus]

What happens on N2 though?

?? On day 2, Umlaut and the one shot doctor are in a 1 v 1 if the IC dies and Umalut doesn't add to the bodies being cleared.
If the full doctor dies, town got lucky and Umlaut can claim blocked here, but still has to deal with the fact that CommKnight still looks really town, and the IC looks really town.
If the full doctor lives, then the full doctor is directed to the IC. Then Umlaut can only claim blocked as long as the IC is alive. This forces scum to kill CommKnight, confirming the doctor as town or have a crap ton of explaining to do with their nightkills.

@momo, you weren't hiding a roleblock in your gun are you?

The one shot Doc could die N1 if scum can't kill the IC. That's what I'm talking about when the game goes into N2. Oh sweet Jesus momo just made this 10x more complicated

And then the full doctor is now a hidden innocent child if they kill him, creating even more conftown.

[Umlaut]

Now I kind of wish I had self-hammered so that scum would have wasted a kill on Frank tonight.

[Umlaut]

(well, aside from not being able to do that at L-2)

[Umlaut]

Can we lynch Shannon now, pretty please?

[momo]

I am not even going to pretend I understand what is going on as I am new to the site and do not understand setup interpretation. Someone clue me in please.

PEDIT: I claimed VT because I thought a premature claim would be believed by scum as they knew I would not be scum. This way they would NK someone they believed to be a PR.

[FireScreamer]

That takes care of the too many townies problem. A question for the town. Should a VT now claim to make the lynchpool [Them/Titus/Shannon/Alchemist]

I think they should.

[Titus]

So we've deduced the only way momo is scum is that if Umlaut is also scum.

[Umlaut]

Vote Yea or Nay on FireScreamer's question.

Yea

[Titus]

Vote Yea or Nay on FireScreamer's question.

Yea

Nah, we're still lynching Umlaut.

[FireScreamer]

Then should a VT claim tomorrow if Umlaut is telling the truth which is confirmed on flip?

[Titus]

Then should a VT claim tomorrow if Umlaut is telling the truth which is confirmed on flip?

No. We should play to keep the full doctor hidden as long as possible because the full doctor becomes an IC if CommKnight dies and flips town.

[Alchemist21]

That takes care of the too many townies problem. A question for the town. Should a VT now claim to make the lynchpool [Them/Titus/Shannon/Alchemist]

I think they should.

Why does Nother VT need to volunteer for the lynch pool? Titus/Shannon/Me is probably a good enough lynch pool for now. I'm pretty sure in my Titus scumread.

[Umlaut]

I had already prepared a readlist for this occasion, so I might as well post it. The only change is removing the part where I tell momo to go die in a fire (since I assumed I would get to this point based on a Frank non-RB claim and be about to get roped based on his fuckery).

Definite town:

DarkChocolate n PalmTree, momo, FireScreamer

Likely town:

Green Crayons, Alchemist21, CommKnight

Null:

Narna, RoryMK, FrankJaeger

Likely scum:

Titus, davesaz

Definite scum:

shannon

No need to explain DCnPT or momo.

If you ever lynch FireScreamer I will

rise from the grave to haunt you all

not forgive you.

Green Crayons is town for all the reasons I've given before, and also because I generally believe claims in an open game absent a reason not to.

Alchemist21 took heat early on for not forming independent reads, but I think it's clear that he's come a long way since then. I appreciate your defending an increasingly unpopular townread on my slot.

CommKnight's claim is the only thing putting him in probable town, otherwise he'd be way the hell down this list. I would be very impressed if he had the stones to fakeclaim 1-shot doc on Day 1. At any rate if he's lying it ought to come out eventually, so there's no need to press on this.

My nulls are slots that have been largely inactive but haven't thrown off any other big tells. There's probably a serial killer, which means at least one of them is actually scum. Narna's read-in is a decent start; give him a chance. I'm suspicious of Frank's delayed claim, though I can't peg it to a specific scum motive.

If shannon is scum (and she is) then davesaz and Titus are by far her most likely partners. Forget about what Titus has said, and look at what she's done: davesaz and shannon were the two leading wagons, and the primary effect of Titus' actions since replacing in has been to derail them both and lead us to a place where a claimed PR is the lynch

du jour

and god only knows where people are going if that one derails.

@Titus

If you are town, take a deep breath. Then take another one. Then forget everything you think you know about the state of the game, and read it again. Look in particular at who came along for the ride with you today and what motives were served by their doing so.

[Umlaut]

Why does Nother VT need to volunteer for the lynch pool? Titus/Shannon/Me is probably a good enough lynch pool for now. I'm pretty sure in my Titus scumread.

It's only a lynchpool by virtue of having more VTs than there actually are in the game. Without Momo, it's just a bunch of people who are either VTs or scum.

[FrankJaeger]

Yeah if someone could give me a quick synopsis that would be great. What are we trying to figure out here? Or give me a post number that explains the setup stuff. Im not terrible with numbers so dont be shy about the math.

I like irchers replacement.(Lawyers are bad ass btw)
UNVOTE: titus


Ohyea not RB

Pedit; ok whats going on? Dont self hammer why is that optimal

[FireScreamer]

Then should a VT claim tomorrow if Umlaut is telling the truth which is confirmed on flip?

No. We should play to keep the full doctor hidden as long as possible because the full doctor becomes an IC if CommKnight dies and flips town.

Nah I don't agree with this. Giving town a lynchpool with almost guaranteed scum in it outweighs hiding a doctor when scum is spoiled for choice on PRs to hit.

In fact I believe that enough that I claim VT.

[FireScreamer]

Which was pretty obvious when I asked the question anyway.