Open 680.1 C9++ | Endgame

[Brian Skies]

Because they're both making faux claims and I thought it was time to change things up

If you suspect them both, why change it up when the first one was already gaining votes (and was a wagon you started)? What makes you think they're faux claims?

I said i was going to soft mason D1. before the reroll

Even if this is true, I hope you realize how irritating it is to have you interject yourself into my line of questioning. At the very least, you could have waited to see Shannon's response first.

[Brian Skies]

^^That's what makes me think faux claims. Also no one else is taking it seriously as they would if it was a real claim. I always policy vote fake claims, no matter how fake, I'm just sharing the votes around. I can go back to the other faker if it bothers you? ((This is essentially RVS))

Once again, why're you just immediately assuming their claims are fake? I also don't really care whether you vote Umlaut or not. I'm more interested in why you decided to change your vote.

[Brian Skies]

@Brian, would you say replacing out was not a sign of getting a role someone did not like?

Also it's a joke vote. Everyone here except you and Necta were in the last game before it had to be re-rolled. So poking at the newbies who replaced in due to two people not wanting to continue our fun. We were almost to page 100 on D1 but it had to re-roll because everyone claimed pretty much and Umlaut got the wrong role PM (LOL Guess we shouldn't have made Umlaut claim).

Also, your slot was scum before the re-roll. (So was Frank and me).

Finally, VOTE: Necta, time to bring in the IC who's not so innocent anymore.

I have no idea why Momo would replace out between games. Who's to say he even saw his role PM? I also already know what he would have seen if he did, so my opinion is biased.

I can understand wanting to pressure newcomers to the game (I'm not a newbie), but I wanted to know if you actually put thought into your vote or had any other thoughts on the situation.

Also, if my predecessor was scum before the reroll, why do you think he would've been more likely to replace out between games? It didn't seem like he was at risk of replacing out in the previous one.

[FrankJaeger]

Because they're both making faux claims and I thought it was time to change things up

If you suspect them both, why change it up when the first one was already gaining votes (and was a wagon you started)? What makes you think they're faux claims?

I said i was going to soft mason D1. before the reroll

Even if this is true, I hope you realize how irritating it is to have you interject yourself into my line of questioning. At the very least, you could have waited to see Shannon's response first.

Nah i didnt realize sorry.
Maybe leave a little p.s next time?

[Brian Skies]

Nope, I won't be using a p.s. I just wanted to make a point that if Shannon were maf here, you just basically gave her an out as far as explaining her thought process was concerned. I do it all the time myself, I just got annoying that someone else did it to me.

[Brian Skies]

VOTE: Titus

[ThinkBig]

VC 1.6

Umlaut

(3): Green Crayons, FireScreamer, Narna

FireScreamer

(2): FrankJaeger, CommKnight

Necta

(2): davesaz, Alchemist21

shannon

(2): Umlaut, Titus

Titus

(1): Brian Skies

Alchemist21

(1): RoryMK

FrankJaeger

(1): shannon

Not Voting

(1): Necta

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2017-05-03 20:06:48)

[Narna]

Umlaut and Titus are voting together. Given the events of last game, one or both should be scum.

I think the last game might introduce some biases here that aren't helpful, to say the least.

What do you mean? I'm sensing a pro-Titus bias that isn't helpful.

[Umlaut]

Also, the likelyhood of mafia last game being mafia this game will actually probably be unlikely. So I'm pretty confident in the team being green this time around. But TB definitely rolled some of our bloc from last game as red this one. I'm willing to bet on it being FS of all people.

1. This is phrased as if you were town last game, which you weren't. It's odd that you identify with a townbloc that you weren't really in.

2. Why do you think someone in the townbloc is definitely scum this time? I can dismiss "scum last time won't be scum this time" as a common misconception, but I'm not sure how you're getting this one.

[Narna]

1. "It's odd that-"

So what's your point?

[Umlaut]

It feels artificial and a bit LAMIST, and combined with bad math that happens to point away from him in particular if it's accepted it makes me suspicious.

Re. your point about me and Titus, I think I understand what you're getting at but I'd rather have you spell it out to make sure I'm understanding correctly.

[Narna]

You thought CK was town last game, no? So him saying something slightly off to you when he was towny last game (as scum) is a noticeable difference. Which would bode well for him being town.

You were obvtown after the Momo claim, but you two still couldn't shift your reads to agree with each other as townies. Now it's no big deal even though there's little reason to tr anyone. You've also been pinging me this roll, so I find the whole situation off putting.

[Umlaut]

Literally the only thing that made me think CK was town last time was the role claim and I said as much then.

Your second paragraph is confusing because afaik neither Titus or I have stated a townread on one another. I thought you were going to say the reason was that if Titus and I are both town you'd expect us to have diametrically opposite reads on shannon, or something. I think even that's expecting too much but at least I can follow it, whereas right now I have no idea what you're trying to say.

[Umlaut]

You've also been pinging me this roll, so I find the whole situation off putting.

Point to one or two things I've said (before your post) that ping you.

[Narna]

I'm totally making sense. Don't pretend you can't follow it.

[Narna]

You've also been pinging me this roll, so I find the whole situation off putting.

Point to one or two things I've said (before your post) that ping you.

Your joke posts suck and #173 is just repeating me.

[Umlaut]

It is less likely, but at the end of the day it's kind of arbitrary. I was scum in my last game on the site, so I'm less likely to be scum now. It seems like a bit of a fallacy.

I think it would be less likely to roll scum twice in a row.

Umy, does the math confirm this?

No, this is basically the gambler's fallacy. You can say in advance of both games that someone is unlikely to roll scum twice in a row, but once they've rolled scum once they're already "halfway there" so to speak, and are just as likely as anyone else to roll scum in the second game.

(Phoneposting and a little buzzed, will write about the actual game later)

Aside from Frank directly addressing me, this isn't even close to the same thing you said.

[Narna]

Oh shit, Um-y, I read that as Umm.

Umm..

[CommKnight]

My blocs went: Not lynching, slight-TR, Neutral, Suspicious.

As you can see, Umlaut falls on that bloc very easily.

I'm certainly not lynching anyone today that was scum last game, because that is counter-intuitive. It is a gambler's bet. But it's a bet even you know is likely to be correct. Rolling something twice in a row is highly unlikely. Especially if we end up being in a 2 mafia vs 10 VT & 1 1-shot PR game.

Either way, I'd be willing to roll the dice on either FireScreamer or Umlaut. It's a hunch, but it's more than likely a right one and they're gonna rip on me after the game for "getting lucky" if I'm correct. But we'll see.

[Umlaut]

Narna, how do you feel about CommKnight's latest post?

[Narna]

I mean, your jokes were

that

bad, and I still think my You/Titus scumpool holds water. There is zero chance this game is actullya 2v10 right? That seems dumb to say as scum. I'm still reading him as genuine.

[CommKnight]

TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather

- This implies 2 v 10 + 1 town PR
TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

[Narna]

Explain that to me like I'm 3 vodka redbulls deep and have never played an open setup!

[Narna]

That message was supposed to be striked through. Of course I'm a pro.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Narna

Setting up a double mislynch on page 8 is pretty ballsy.

CommKnight's post is badly reasoned regardless of alignment, but more importantly he didn't actually answer my question.

@CommKnight

Why do you think former townblockers are more-than-default likely to be scum?

(Incidentally, having no IC actually makes it more likely we're dealing with a scumteam of 2, since it means TTTTTTT is theoretically possible. More likely is still very unlikely, though.)