Mini Normal 1890 - Endgame

[ZZZX]

I know the math is hard but lemme help you out.

I need 3 votes to get lynched.

You've placed one.

massive said hello

I'm not self voting

Do you see the problem with this line of thought

You forgot my existence.

If you were town and grey is town there is no way this game has not ended

If you are town and grey is scum its a possibility game theory wise

The opposite also applies.

Can you help me see whats wrong in that?

[Papa Zito]

I didn't forget your existence. You posted yesterday.

Let's review the post.

I mean... the fact you're still alive tells me that one of us are scum.

And I know it ain't me.

So...

Here he's talking about quickhammers. For a quickhammer to happen both scum players have to be online and coordinate. With you only posting yesterday and someone else not having posted at all a quickhammer can't happen. That's why the "if Zito and grey are town there is no way this game has not ended" is nonsense. In a normal game yeah sure but when the game is this inactive the lack of hammer doesn't mean anything.

[Cooperative Sheep]

Sorry all, the predicted drowning in work happened to me.

So Grey and ZZZX are both hunting Zito.
Zito is hunting no one and going full defense.
Massive is sitting and waiting.

Kind of makes me want to vote Massive, honestly. The Boon death kind of generically points at Zito, but I'd wager Boon was dead pretty much no matter what he believed barring dumb scum, so there's that.

I want to look at some VCA.

[Cooperative Sheep]

I could have sworn someone had already done some, but I'm finding no shortcuts.
This frustrates me.

[Cooperative Sheep]

Votecount 1.2

Boonskiies

:

Elena Fisher

:

Keyenpeydee

:

BlueBloodedToffee

: Boonskiies

momo

:

-Grey-

:

Jaack

:

MagnaofIllusion

:

Elena Fisher

,

mattblackguy, TwoFace, BlueBloodedToffee, Cooperative Sheep

mattblackguy

:

Lycanfire

:

Cooperative Sheep

: Jaack

TheRealGin-N-Tonic

:

TwoFace

: MagnaofIllusion, -Grey-

Votecount 1.3

Boonskiies

:

Elena Fisher

,

Cooperative Sheep, mattblackguy, TwoFace

Elena Fisher

:

Keyenpeydee

:

BlueBloodedToffee

:

momo

:

-Grey-

:

Jaack

:

MagnaofIllusion

: BlueBloodedToffee,

momo

mattblackguy

:

Lycanfire

:

Cooperative Sheep

: Jaack

TheRealGin-N-Tonic

:

TwoFace

: MagnaofIllusion, -Grey-,

Boonskiies

Votecount 1.6

Boonskiies

: Elena Fisher

Elena Fisher

:

Lycanfire, Jaack, Boonskiies

Keyenpeydee

:

BlueBloodedToffee

:

momo

: MagnaofIllusion

-Grey-

: Cooperative Sheep

Jaack

:

MagnaofIllusion

: BlueBloodedToffee,

momo, ThinkBig, TwoFace

ThinkBig

:

Lycanfire

: keyenpeydee

Cooperative Sheep

: -Grey-

TheRealGin-N-Tonic

:

TwoFace

:

Votecount 1.7

Boonskiies

: Elena Fisher

Elena Fisher

: Jaack, Boonskiies

Keyenpeydee

:

BlueBloodedToffee

:

momo

: MagnaofIllusion

-Grey-

: Cooperative Sheep

Jaack

:

MagnaofIllusion

:

BlueBloodedToffee, momo, ThinkBig, TwoFace

, -Grey-

ThinkBig

:

Lycanfire

: keyenpeydee

Cooperative Sheep

:

TheRealGin-N-Tonic

:

TwoFace

: Lycanfire

Day 1 adventures...

[Cooperative Sheep]

Looking at that it kind of feels like a Grey *or* Massive but not both.
The Magna stuff feels a little wonky, maybe because of the Mason play at work also - were scum just really content with the situation, and willing to let Elena go, or was it an Elena *or* Magna scum choice? In which case, all apologies to Elena, if I was scum I'd not exactly work hard to save her if the option was to bus Magna.
So maybe I'm wrong, and it is Grey and Massive and Magna/Zito are town. That might explain the play today of Massive running silent trying to push through the Zito wagon on the case of the dead guy.

[Cooperative Sheep]

Votecount 2.6

Boonskiies

:

Elena Fisher

: Boonskiies

Keyenpeydee

:

massive

:

momo

:

keyenpeydee

,

Elena Fisher,

MagnaofIllusion,

Cooperative Sheep, Titus

, -Grey-

-Grey-

: massive

Aristophanes

:

MagnaofIllusion

:

Cooperative Sheep

: momo

ZZZX

:

Titus

:

Not Voting

: Aristophanes, ZZZX

No Lynch

:

Lynch has been achieved.

Day 2 is a bit of a voting wasteland - I personally tend to guardedly claim that scum Magna doesn't hop on like that with scumpartner Elena, whereas Grey makes sense.

This also says to me that either Grey or Magna, maybe both, are scum.
I could be so happy with a Grey scum. At least I would have been spot on early.

[Cooperative Sheep]

Votecount 3.4

Boonskiies

:

CloudKicker

:

Boonskiies, Cooperative Sheep

, -Grey-,

Keyenpeydee

,

CloudKicker

Keyenpeydee

: ZZZX

massive

:

-Grey-

: massive

Aristophanes

:

MagnaofIllusion

:

Cooperative Sheep

:

ZZZX

:

Not Voting

: Aristophanes, MagnaofIllusion, CloudKicker

No Lynch

:

Lynch has been achieved.

So Grey is the only possible busser.
Day 3 was quick, but it wasn't so quick as to deny bussing options.

[Cooperative Sheep]

I'm getting tired now - Day 4 obviously deserves a look.

I'm currently thinking Grey + ??? as the scumteam, because I just sort of figure somebody bussed - otherwise that's a pure town aggro lolwtfscum wagon, and I don't feel we did that.
There was a bit of pushback, I'm probably wanting to go and look at it to see who was the strongest defender, call them town, and then try to suss out a second strongest defender and call them scum. That might help me sort the Massive/ZZZX/Zito trifecta.

I think Day 1 is still making me want to call Zito the towniest one left. That's an odd day if both are scum I think. Maybe I should look back at Boon's mega connections wall, but I'm not sure he addressed that aspect or not. Probably it was just him calling someone town and then deciding they're the least town.

So I'm leaning Zito = town.
Grey - scumz
ZZZX/Massive - partner.

@Zito - what is your take on this? You now have a buddy, stop being pure defense and analyze my thoughts here, what do you think makes sense/doesn't?

[Papa Zito]

I've actually already addressed what you've been talking about.

@Zito - what is your take on this? You now have a buddy, stop being pure defense and analyze my thoughts here, what do you think makes sense/doesn't?

I don't think Grey is scum tho.

Like both flips yesterday did absolutely nothing for my reads. Ya'll lynched one and they killed another and here we are.

I'd like to say fuck it and just vote ZZZX but for some reason you guys aren't townreading me which is frustrating as hell. God I hate lylos.

I'm only "purely defensive" because I know where I want to go already.

I will say that Grey sticking a vote on me out the gate and leaving it when his reasoning is so incredibly flimsy does put a point in his scum column. It would make some sense if the two scumpartners decided during the night to plonk one vote on me and wait for a townie to bite.

For your wagons I'd have to look at context on why people hopped on or off.

[massive]

I find it interesting you colored BBT (my slot) green in at least two of those VCs.

[massive]

Grey, where did your Sheep scumread go?

[massive]

I've listed out most of Key's posting already. There was no flailing, just a tunnel on a scum slot.

It was not about the action

Its fake.

He was faking the tunnel on elena

He wants you to believe he is hitting scum. Did you seriously read that as a real tunnel?

I could also probably vote ZZZX.

[Papa Zito]

ZZZX is still my biggest scumread ftr. I still see him as the most likely Cloud partner.

[Cooperative Sheep]

I will say that Grey sticking a vote on me out the gate and leaving it when his reasoning is so incredibly flimsy does put a point in his scum column. It would make some sense if the two scumpartners decided during the night to plonk one vote on me and wait for a townie to bite.

I agree.

For your wagons I'd have to look at context on why people hopped on or off.

Why don't you look at them then?

I find it interesting you colored BBT (my slot) green in at least two of those VCs.

I actually only did it once as far as I can see, and had it correctly colored in the count right before.
But do you have any expansion to the idea? "Interesting" is generally short hand on site for "scummy" so are you calling me scummy, or are you saying nothing at all?
If it's scummy - how is it scummy?
If you're saying nothing - why are you mentioning it?

[Cooperative Sheep]

Oh, actually, no, you're right, 163 I did it also.
My questions can still stand though.

[massive]

Well, I was hoping you'd have a better explanation than "I did it right previously" since one of them was 1.2 (the first one) but I have another question about it : How do the vote counts you quoted from Day 1 point to "massive or Grey but not both"?

[massive]

Why is it scummy? Because scum would have additional knowledge and not remember that BBT was replaced by me, and assume they were dead and town.

[Papa Zito]

For your wagons I'd have to look at context on why people hopped on or off.

Why don't you look at them then?

I can't now, I will at lunch.


I thought massive was going with the "you know I'm town so you made me green" argument there.

[Human Sequencer]

Votecount 5.2

massive

:

-Grey-

:

Papa Zito

: -Grey-,

Cooperative Sheep

:

ZZZX

:

Not Voting

: massive, Papa Zito, Cooperative Sheep, ZZZX

No Lynch

:

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

[Cooperative Sheep]

Well, I was hoping you'd have a better explanation than "I did it right previously" since one of them was 1.2 (the first one) but I have another question about it : How do the vote counts you quoted from Day 1 point to "massive or Grey but not both"?

Because I don't find it likely that scum would go for such a concentrated push on Magna at a point when the game was in soup mode that early - you don't double down on derp as an intelligent play, which makes it less likely to my mind that you would be buddies.

Why is it scummy? Because scum would have additional knowledge and not remember that BBT was replaced by me, and assume they were dead and town.

So you're saying I was scum who knew you were town but forgot you were alive twice, but remembered at other times that you were alive?
I don't get it.

[Cooperative Sheep]

Votecount 4.3

Boonskiies

:

Keyenpeydee

: Cooperative Sheep[/color], ZZZX

massive

:

-Grey-

:

Papa Zito

:

Boonskiies, Keyenpeydee

Cooperative Sheep

:

ZZZX

: Papa Zito, -Grey-

Not Voting

: massive

No Lynch

:

The leading wagons are Keyenpeydee, ZZZX and Papa Zito at 2 votes (L-2)
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Votecount 4.5

Boonskiies

:

Keyenpeydee

: Cooperative Sheep[/color], ZZZX, -Grey-,

Boonskiies

massive

:

-Grey-

:

Papa Zito

:

Keyenpeydee

Cooperative Sheep

:

ZZZX

: Papa Zito

Not Voting

: massive,

No Lynch

:

Lynch has been acheived.
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

The first count is really interesting because it's three competing wagons, we had three choices and ended up on a wrong one.
The Zito wagon was absolutely being pushed by two town, so it's lack of growth is a burr in my backside for the Zito read.
The flip of that is that he didn't touch the Key wagon, so if he's scum it means either ZZZX or Grey are his buddies.
He's come out hard on ZZZX, so that feels like an unlikely pairing, also ZZZX was on Key earlier, so Grey is the one who actually may have theory moved for protection purposes.
Massive avoided everything. Leaves him wide open.

So I don't think ZZZX/Zito makes sense.
If Zito is scum Grey is the most likely partner looking at that, but Grey is the one who opened up on Zito today.
Grey/Massive remains fine from this phase, as does ZZZX paired with either of them.
I think it is safe to say that there is assured minimum 1 scum in ZZZX or Grey.

@Grey - why are you so confident in Zito? Boon was wrong about Key, is your theory that he was killed due to assured pressure to come on Zito, or is your theory simply that his analysis was right n Zito regardless of his death? If you liked his case on Zito so much, why didn't you support it yesterday?

[massive]

Why is it scummy? Because scum would have additional knowledge and not remember that BBT was replaced by me, and assume they were dead and town.

So you're saying I was scum who knew you were town but forgot you were alive twice, but remembered at other times that you were alive?
I don't get it.

Yeah, I don't get it either, which is why I asked about it. But I will say I find it less likely to come from town, simply because town would have zero reason to color me green even once on accident. Ultimately I'm trying not to get hung up on it because I know dumb stuff happens when you start coloring in stuff, but I wanted it out there.

[-Grey-]

Grey, where did your Sheep scumread go?

My own reads are on a back burner until I give Boon his revenge.

[Cooperative Sheep]

@Grey - why are you so confident in Zito? Boon was wrong about Key, is your theory that he was killed due to assured pressure to come on Zito, or is your theory simply that his analysis was right n Zito regardless of his death? If you liked his case on Zito so much, why didn't you support it yesterday?