Open 680.1 C9++ | Endgame

[Umlaut]

Didn't notice we were doing the mass RB claim. I think it was a bad idea last game, I think it's a bad idea this game, and I'm kind of annoyed that we started without waiting for any kind of consensus. I'll participate if everyone continues to insist, but first let me actually make the case against it.

The premise is that we can clear Gamma or condemn him based on the existence of a roleblocker, and this is worth outing him if there is one. However:

• Getting a claim only means there is a full blocker
  or
  a scumbuddy willing to all-in with Gamma.
  
• Suppose we lynch Gamma. Even if he flips green, this doesn't verify the full RB claimant; conversely, even if he flips red, that doesn't mean the full RB claimant is lying.
  
• Suppose we lynch the full RB claimant. If they flip green, this
  still
  doesn't clear Gamma.

So the only way this proves anything is if either

• There is no roleblocker
  and
  no scumbuddy willing to join in, or
  
• Someone claims full RB and then
  we lynch them and they flip red
  .

The rest of the time it's just a great way to out PRs. It seems like most people want to lynch Gamma tomorrow regardless, so why out another PR first?

can you tell me the odds of BB if either 1 or 2 other non B letters are known.

It depends on the letter.

For non-RB roles nailing down one letter

• one-shot cop (C): 4.13%
  
• one-shot vigilante (V): 3.92%
  
• full doctor (D): 3.66%

For non-RB roles nailing down two letters

• full cop (CC): 2.90%
  
• 1-shot doctor (DD): 2.89%
  
• full vigilante (VV): 2.73%
  
• mason in a masonry of two (MM): 2.60%

(Again, these all factor in our current knowledge that there is no IC)

[Green Crayons]

I did agree to ignore you for your mental health.

I retract my personal hurt and in its place submit righteous indignation that BSkies doesn't even abide by his own word.

[Green Crayons]

I don't really care about the RB thing one way or another, I'm just not inclined to lynch Gamma today and am tired of people talking about lynching him (and also, Firestarter, umlaut, and the Shannon replacement).

Also lol at the idea of lynching the claimed full-time RBer.

[FireScreamer]

I don't understand the reluctance to lynch Gamma from you GC.

[FireScreamer]

You expressed you'd be fine with his lynch before the claim and one shot RB is about as close to useless of a PR as we can possibly have. The ceiling here is high and the floor isn't a disaster.

[Green Crayons]

Last time I did a real look at him he has some good and some bad stuff.

Since then he hasn't screamed out to me as scum. Is there something in particular you think is clitch? I'll take a hard look if there's something in particular.

[Green Crayons]

Here are the tears I'll weap if we lynch Gamma:

[Green Crayons]

I'm just not all that convinced that he's the best lynch. Hence the full RB thang.

[Green Crayons]

Last time I did a real look at him he has some good and some bad stuff.

Since then he hasn't screamed out to me as scum. Is there something in particular you think is clitch? I'll take a hard look if there's something in particular.

Stupid auto correct.

Something you think is clutch? I'll look at it. You can just give me a theory/narrative and I'll look up posts etc

[Gamma Emerald]

I personally think it's stupid to mass claim rb/not rb. We already know there's no IC, and giving out more info to scum just helps them get the full picture before we can.

[FireScreamer]

What does waiting till tomorrow accomplish considering Gamma has already said he won't target tonight? It's not like he's cleaned up his play since he claimed. He went from wagoning me over stronger scum reads in 1426 to joining the davewagon that I was on. His reads feel manufactured and not someone actually searching for an answer.

BB is also just particularly unlikely of a scenario. Maybe he was hoping people would townread him for claiming the hard way but I don't.

[FireScreamer]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Gamma

[Gamma Emerald]

I never said I wouldn't act, I said one shot doesn't mean to act Night one. Nice misrepresentation.

[FireScreamer]

I never said I wouldn't act, I said one shot doesn't mean to act Night one. Nice misrepresentation.

I have no clue but that doesn't mean I'm going to fire a gun into the air to hit a satellite. I want to be extra certain I'm blocking scum.

[Almost50]

FireScreamer is OBVIOUSLY trying to put the wheels back on Gamma to save Titus. dave's wagon hit a brick wall and scum need a counter wagon to beat the one on Titus. That's TWO SCUMS I've nailed so far and I'm willing to wager the whole game on them BOTH flipping red.

[Brian Skies]

I did agree to ignore you for your mental health.

I retract my personal hurt and in its place submit righteous indignation that BSkies doesn't even abide by his own word.

I'm a man of empty and broken promises.

[FireScreamer]

FireScreamer is OBVIOUSLY trying to put the wheels back on Gamma to save Titus. dave's wagon hit a brick wall and scum need a counter wagon to beat the one on Titus. That's TWO SCUMS I've nailed so far and I'm willing to wager the whole game on them BOTH flipping red.

As opposed to someone wanting someone they have been scumreading for most of the day lynched?

[FireScreamer]

Like I don't think you are trying to defend Gamma as a partner here because of the Shannon/Gamma interaction, but thats a very strange conclusion to leap to. Yes I would prefer a Gamma or a Dave lynch over Titus today, but I don't know how you are that sure I couldn't have come to that conclusion from a town perspective.

[davesaz]

@Alchemist, well my reads list is currently like this.

TR: Firebringer, Alchemist, Brian Skies, Gamma Emerald and Narna.
TL: Green Crayons
Neutral: daves and Titus
SL: RoryMK, Umlaut and shannon
SR: FireScreamer

@someone wanted to know how I thought Comm's reads were reasonable.
Hmm, 7/13 roughly agree which isn't terrible. I don't expect 100% agreement in any case.
I certainly would not call this 100% wrong. I did not look at how old it is, in particular do not know the timing relationship vs. claims.
I can easily see how your opinion may differ, and I would not hold that against you.

For the record I don't like the idea of giving scum more information sooner. Either a 1-shot RB claim is believable or it's not. Beyond a certain point it becomes inevitable but I don't know if we are at that point.

FWIW, exactly 2 B's in the setup, without regard to other letters, is a probability of 4.06%. I use this site to calculate (exactly 2 chances out of 7 to hit at .05 probability) The other possible 1-shot happens at 4 B's, which adds only 0.018% to the overall probability.

[Almost50]

FireScreamer is OBVIOUSLY trying to put the wheels back on Gamma to save Titus. dave's wagon hit a brick wall and scum need a counter wagon to beat the one on Titus. That's TWO SCUMS I've nailed so far and I'm willing to wager the whole game on them BOTH flipping red.

As opposed to someone wanting someone they have been scumreading for most of the day lynched?

You missed your chance when you switched off to dave. Now that the dissipation of both Wagons on you and Gamma has resulted in the creation of the wagon on Titus you are trying to rebuild the Gamma wagon (which appears to be much easier to push based on the public opinion).

[FireScreamer]

FireScreamer is OBVIOUSLY trying to put the wheels back on Gamma to save Titus. dave's wagon hit a brick wall and scum need a counter wagon to beat the one on Titus. That's TWO SCUMS I've nailed so far and I'm willing to wager the whole game on them BOTH flipping red.

As opposed to someone wanting someone they have been scumreading for most of the day lynched?

You missed your chance when you switched off to dave. Now that the dissipation of both Wagons on you and Gamma has resulted in the creation of the wagon on Titus you are trying to rebuild the Gamma wagon (which appears to be much easier to push based on the public opinion).

I reevaluated my reasons for leaving the Gamma wagon and am now returning. Plus I don't like the fact that Gamma is voting Dave.

[FireScreamer]

Like that read is based on the assumption that i've I couldn't push Dave over Titus. Believe me if that was my only goal in life i'm pretty sure I could do it.

[FireScreamer]

that i've come ot the conclusion I couldn't*

[Gamma Emerald]

That's not what he is saying
He's saying you and Titus are scum together.

[FireScreamer]

I fully understand what he is saying Gamma.